Water Conflicts in the Middle East:
The Euphrates-Tigris River Basin

von: Jule Jürgens

Structure

1. Introduction 2

2. Conflict over the distribution of Euphrates-Tigris Water  3

2.1 General Information 3
2.2 Historical Evolution of the Conflict over Euphrates-Tigris water  4
2.3 Parties of the Conflict, Positions and Interests 5
2.4 Disputes over the water 7
2.5. Negotiation Process 7
2.6 Water Rules in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin  8
2.7 International Law 10
2.8 Summary 12

3. Solutions  13

4. Conclusion 14

Bibliography 17

1. Introduction

“Water scarcity” in the Middle East and North Africa and therewith related the possibility of “water conflict” has attracted growing international attention in recent years. Many scholars believe that future war in the Middle East and North Africa will be influenced by economic and demographic trends in the region. 1 Conflicts will therefore be linked to “environmental scarcity”2 – the scarcity of renewable resources such as arable land, forests, and fresh water. Mostafa Dolatyar and Tim Gray identify water resources as “the principal challenge for humanity from the early days of civilization”3. And Ismail Serageldin, former World Bank’s Vice President for Environmentally Sustainable Development, predicted: “Many of the wars of the 20th century were about oil, but wars of the 21st century will be over water.”4 Therefore, the 1998 United Nations Development Report is alarming, estimating that almost a third of the 4.4 billion people currently living in the developing world have no access to clean water. Furthermore, 20 countries in the developing world presently suffer from water stress (defined as having less than 1,000 cubic meters of available freshwater per capita), and 25 more are expected to join that list by 2050.5

The Middle East is directly concerned, due to its arid and semi arid climate. In the past 30 years, the status of the region’s water resources has additionally worsened because of rapid population growth and an improved standard of living, therefore an increased per capita consumption of water. It is expected that by 2025 the average annual renewable resources for the Middle East would have fallen to 667 m3 per capita compared to a world average of 4,780 m3 per capita.6 The three major waterways in the Middle East are the Nile, the Jordan, and the Tigris-Euphrates. As each of the rivers is shared by more than one country, the usage of the river’s water and its equitable distribution among the riparian states are highly important issues.

Given the currentness of the topic (although there has been no war over water yet) I will analyze the dispute involving Turkey, Syria, and Iraq over the distribution of Euphrates water. This means I will focus on the historical evaluation of the conflict, the state’s differing interests and positions, the negotiation process, agreements and disagreements. In addition I will deal with the question whether the controversy over water distribution has to lead to war as it is predicted (for the Middle East) by Morrisette and Borer7, or whether there are other ways of cooperation for a solution to the conflict. Different possibilities or opportunities for a settlement of the dispute will be discussed in the end. The paper will be based on on- line sources and journal articles, as well as academic literature.

2. Conflict over the distribution of Euphrates-Tigris Water

2.1 General Information

Both the Euphrates and the Tigris river rise in Turkey. Approximately 88% of the mean annual flow of the Euphrates is generated within Turkish territory. After flowing through Turkey, the river enters Syria at Jarablus, continues for a length of 680 km, and enters Iraq at Abu Kamal. Almost all of the remaining 12% of the mean annual flow is generated inside Syria. In Iraq the Euphrates combines with the Tigris. They form the Shatt al-Arab, which flows into the Persian Gulf. Except in times of unusual rainfall, Iraq’s contribution to the Euphrates water is almost nil. In the past the Euphrates, with its abundant volume of 32 billion m3 per year seemed capable of sustaining life along its banks indefinitely8. Water was regarded as a free good that was available in plentiful supply. The situation today is quite different. Water supplies seem to be insufficient for expanding populations and for the state’s modernization plans.

Defining the “water crisis” in general, most Middle East countries fall into two categories: first, quantitative scarcity resulting from conflicting and competing demands that exceed sustainable availability, and second, quality deterioration that results in reduced supplies suitable for domestic purposes and for irrigation. Among Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, only Syria falls below the limit of minimum water supply, using as criterion for absolute scarcity of water supply a number below 1,0 million cubic meters per 1,000 inhabitants. Affected countries may face increased competition and conflicts among and within water using groups for scarce supplies.9 Although Turkey and Iraq are not directly affected by that form of water scarcity, estimated figures show that the situation will develop to a form of crisis for them as well. Conditions for water related tensions are, according to Abu-Taleb: The region’s arid climate, the physical sharing of rivers by more than one country, the high population growth rate, and the fundmaental political, cultural, and religious rift among the nations. The shortages and related multisectoral conflicts and competition for water will be greatly exacerbated in the future, again according to Abu- Taleb, for at least five reasons, which in combination create a tense situation for the countries sharing the water resources: Population growth, improved standards of living, climate characteristics, financial constraints, and riparian conflicts and the sharing of water resources.

2.2 Historical Evolution of the Conflict over Euphrates-Tigris water

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1 Compare Thomas Naff, Alwyn R. Rouyer, Ulrich Küffner

2 Jason J. Morrissette and Douglas A. Borer, Where Oil and Water Do Mix: Environmental Scarcity and Future Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, Parameters 2004-05, p. 87.

3 Mostafa Dolatyar and Tim S. Gray, WaterPolitics in the Middle East: A context for Conflict or Co-operation?, New York, St. Martin’s Press, 2000, p. 6.

4 Jason J. Morrissette and Douglas A. Borer, Where Oil and Water Do Mix, p. 86.

5 Human Development Report 1998, http://hdr.undp.org/reports/global/1998/en/

6 M. El-Fadel and E. Bou-Zeid, Climate Change and Water Resources in the Middle East, 2001, p.4; http://www.feem.it/web/activ/_activ.html

7 J.J.Morrissette and D.A. Borer, Where Oil and Water Do Mix: Environmental Scarcity and Future Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, p. 99/100.

8 R.M. Slim, Turkey, Syria, Iraq: The Euphrates, in G.O. Faure and J.Z.Rubin Culture and Negotiation – The Resolution of Water Disputes, SAGE publications, California, 1993, p. 136.

9 M.F. Abu-Taleb, Regional Cooperation in Water Resource Management, in E. Boulding’s Building Peace in the Middle East, p. 252.