A critical appraisal of the theories of government expenditure growth

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Table of Contents

1  Introduction  1

1.1  Basic problem and objective of the study  1

1.2  Outline of the study  1

2  Macro models  1

2.1  Wagner’s “law  1

2.1.1  Explanation and assumptions  2

2.1.2  Criticism and value of the theory  2

2.2  The Peacock Wiseman hypothesis  3

2.2.1  Explanation and assumptions  3

2.2.2  Criticism and value of the theory  4

3  Micro models  4

3.1  Baumol’s model of unbalanced productivity growth  4

3.1.1  Explanation and assumptions  5

3.1.2  Criticism and value of the model  5

3.2  Leviathan model  6

3.2.1  Explanation and assumptions  6

3.2.2  Criticism and value of the model  7

4  Conclusion and further implications  8

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1 Introduction

1.1 Basic problem and objective of the study

Since 1870 the growth in government spending has been a general trend in nearly all in-

dustrialised countries (Tanzi & Schuknecht 2000: 3). As this growth is not always wel-

comed and justified in terms of welfare and efficiency considerations economists deve l-

oped a series of different theories seeking to explain this phenomenon.

The objective of this paper is to give an appraisal of four theories of government expend i-

ture growth and to provide an overview of the implications that are part of it.

1.2 Outline of the study

This paper is structured in the examination of two macro models (Wagners “law” and

The Peacock - Wiseman hypothesis) and two theories (Baumol’s model and the Leviathan

model) belonging to the micro models. Before each model is criticised a brief explanation

of the theory and its assumptions are given. Chapter 4 presents the final considerations of

the study which includes a conclusion and further implications.

For purposes of simplification this study applies the terms government expenditure growth,

growth of the public sector and growth of government etc. as synonyms. 1

2 Macro models

Macro models focus on the long-term rising trend of public expenditure. The term macro refers to the fact that a collection of factors result in an overall outcome (Bailey 1995: 4445). Often aggregated variables like the GDP (gross domestic product) or the per capita income is used to determine government expenditure growth (Black et al. 1999: 87)

2.1 Wagner’s “law”

In 1883 Adolph Wagner stated that government expenditure rises at a faster rate than the

output of the economy. He derived it from empirical findings on progressive, mainly

Western European industrialising countries, where he examined changes in the ratio be-

tween public spending and the per capita real income. (Black et al. 1999: 87)

¹ Though they are not necessarily the same

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2.1.1Explanation and assumptions

Wagner contended, on behalf of a country’s citizens demands there are three raisons d'être

for an increase in government expenditure being greater than the increase in output of

economy. Firstly, demands for services such as health and education grow faster than per

capita income, which implies that citizens have an income elasticity of demand on these

kinds of services that is greater than one. Secondly, to maintain an environment beneficial

for economic progress, the state must increase its efforts and consequently its expenses in

the sectors of law, protection and administration. Lastly, market failures such as monopo-

lies, which might be the result of the need for high capital investment, cause expensive

government interve ntions. (Black et al. 1999: 88)

In Wagner’s “law” an organic state model is assumed in which each individual can only

have significance as part of the organism as a whole (Rosen 1999: 4-5). Moreover, the

model requires rising per capital incomes, technological and institutional changes, a de-

mocratically governed state, and as aforementioned, it assumes high income elasticities of

demand (Black et al. 1999: 87-88).

2.1.2 Criticism and value of the theory

A presumed organic view of the state is open to criticism by proponents of the mechanistic

state model. The mechanistic view of the state emphasizes the individual which strives to

create a state in a way that its personal interests are pursued best (Black et al. 1999: 88).

Such an individual might get very soon to the point where it is not willing to accept higher

taxes in order to finance further government’s expenditure.

Moreover, Wagner formulated his hypothesis after analysing countries in the era of indus-

trialisation at the end of the 19 ^th century. Not all assumptions he made can be transferred

into the 20 ^th or even the 21 ^st century (Likierman 1988: 21). Lots of countries today are to

be found in a process of post- industrialisation. The age of computers and worldwide ne t-

works did and do certainly bring dramatic technological changes, but instead of increasing

governmental spending it is reasonable to argue that they tend to decrease number of em-

ployees and administrative work needed in the public sector.

Likierman (1988: 21) holds the view that Wagner’s “law” overstates the demand side for

goods and services. The willingness or even the ability of the government to deliver addi-

tional services is not put to the question. No matter how big the existing size of the go v-

ernment might be, it will increase if income increases, thus efficiency considerations are

not carried out.