Climate Changes and Fossil Fuel

Dipl.-Ing. Per Manfred Kleinschmidt

Publication

Munich, January 2009

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents 2

List of Figures 2

1 Preface 3

2

Climate changes and climate protection 4

3 Fossil

fuel 6

4 Summary 8

List of literature 11

List of Figures

Figure 1: Metric tons of C02/Year 2006 [IEA 2008] 5

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1 Preface

This documentation will be the first of a trilogy in which each part constitutes an

independent document leaving the other parts as additional information sources.

Due to the logical development of the themes, however, all of them are

interconnected, displaying the reason and history of climate changes, the biofuel and

the positive aspect of the climate protection and an outlook on the biofuel in the

future. The last part will be a microeconomic discussion if the production of biofuel in

Germany is still profitable.

The trilogy will be as described above:

· Climate Changes and Fossil Fuel (this document)

· Renewable Energy and Biofuel (will be issued around February 09)

· Rentability of Biodiesel Plant (will be issued around March 09)

Quality assurance of the literature sources trough Internet and E-Books:

Some literature sources have been retrieved from the Internet home pages. Due to

the fact that the quality of the source is difficult to check on the Internet, this is

normally not a proper way of getting secured, good quality information. Therefore, all

information from the home pages is retrieved from secured well-known providers,

such as governmental home pages or officially incorporated or registered societies.

The download date of the retrieved information is registered in the list of literature

sources.

E-books are to be treated as normal books. Due to the fact that an increasing amount

of books is distributed electronically, the quality will be the same as normal hard copy

books. Whenever E-books are downloaded, the URL will be listed in the literature

index, entailing which sources the documents were downloaded from. I would like to

emphasize that E-books should not be seen as Internet home pages but as normal

books.

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2 Climate changes and climate protection

Due to the development of the industrialisation and the world population, the demand

for raw resources and energy has rapidly increased during the last 200 years.

Particularly the supply of fossil energy sources strongly increased. The growing

global climate problem has correlated to fossil energy carrier in parallel to the

increasing standard of living. Firstly, the negative impact on the sulphur and nitric

oxide, volatile hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide through air, water and soil and

secondly the high emission of carbon dioxide (CO2), originating from the use of fossil

energy sources, can contribute to global climate changes [Heinloth 2003].

The first signs of oncoming climate changes, released by the greenhouse effect on

our planet are already recognizable. A few examples can be listed as follows:

stronger precipitation in the regions of Canada and Northern Europe, sinking

rainwater in the regions of Africa, more frequent cyclones, rising sea temperatures,

evanescent mountain glaciers and melting ice in the Arctic and Greenland

[Petermann 2006]. According to the Stern Review Report on the Economics of

Climate Change, the annual costs used to cover global climate damages currently

are about 200 billion American dollars [Stern 2007].

The majority of the climatologists agree that there is a connection between global

climate changes and increasing greenhouse gases in the special CO2 in the

atmosphere. Since the beginning of the industrial age in the nineteenth century, the

CO2 content has increased in the atmosphere by about 30 percent [Petermann

2006]. According to the international energy agency (IEA), the CO2 emissions have

increased worldwide since 1973 from annually 15.7 billion tons up to 28.0 billion tons

in 2006. The United States of America (USA) and China have caused approximately

42 percent of the worldwide CO2 emissions (see Figure 1, page 5).

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Mt of CO2/Year (2006)

United States

21.13%

People`s Rep. of China

20.79%

Russia

5.89%

India

4.63%

Japan

4.50%

Germany

3.05%

Canada

2.00%

UK

1.99%

Korea

1.77%

Italy

1.66%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Figure 1: Metric tons of C02/Year 2006 [IEA 2008]

The industrialized states in Kyoto (Japan) met in 1992 to agree on the reduction of

the greenhouse gas emissions, in order to reach a global reduction of the

greenhouse gas and thereby counteracting against the threatening climate change.

In 1997, the signatories of the climate convention held a conference and decided in

an agreement to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases by an average of 5

percent until 2012 compared to the year 1990. According to the agreement, Germany

has to reduce at least 8 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions until 2013 [UN

1998].

In addition, the member states of the European Union within the scope of the third

energy conference in March 2007 have decided to reduce the greenhouse gas

emissions towards the emission in 1990 for about at least 20 percent until 2020. The

portion of renewable energy in the primary energy consumption should be raised by

about 20 percent until 2020 [BR 2007].

An essential contribution to the reduction of CO2 emissions can occur through the

development, supply and use of non-fossile energy sources. Beside the nuclear

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energy is this regenerative energy [Heinloth 2003]. Regenerative energy makes the

supply of energy with low emissions possible.

3 Fossil fuel

In the middle of the 19th century the first commercial oil spring was opened by

drillings in Pennsylvania, USA. Thereupon fossil oil became available in larger

quantities used for lubricant and for lamp fuel. With the development of the

combustion engine by the German engineer Nicolaus August Otto1 in the 1870s, a

new form originated in the use of oil as fuel [Heinberg 2005].

Today crude oil performs a portion of approximately 37 percent of the global energy

consumption. It is used for the production of heat and power for modern chemical

products and fuels. Oil is used to approximately 70 percent in traffic, in waterways

and in the air. Therefore, due to the high consumption of fossil fuel, the awareness

about the oil reserves must be increased [Petermann 2006].

Basically one differentiates between reserves and resources. Reserves are known as

crude oil reserves, which are confirmed by drillings and are economically surely

feasible with today′s technology. Resources are crude oil reserves, which cannot be

extracted using today′s technology or are not yet economically justifiable. Therefore

speculative crude oil wells can also be meant [Rebhan 2002].

Around 3.9 billion tons yearly are currently extracted worldwide from conventional

crude oil (1 EJ = 23.9 million tons crude oil). The global consumption figures nearly

correspond to those of the production [BGR 2007]. About one third of the total

production takes places "Offshore", namely overseas [Heinloth 2003]. In 2006,

approximately 598 million tons of crude oil was used in EU-25 (25 member states of

the EU) and approximately 608 million tons of crude oil was used in EU-27 (included

Romania and Bulgaria). In Germany, it was about 121 million tons [EC 2008].

According to the "Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe" about 75.6

percent of the conventional crude oil is extracted in countries of the Far East, the CIS

1 (*10. June 1832 in Holzhausen an der Haide/Taunus; 26. January 1891 in Cologne)

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(Commonwealth of Independent States), Africa and in North America. 43.8 percent of

the conventional oil will be produced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting

Countries (OPEC-13) [BGR 2007]. The OPEC states possess nearly 80 percent of

the global oil reserve. Western Europe disposes of approximately 2 percent of the

global world reserve, Russia more than 6 percent. There are other deposits in North

America and South America and some republics of the Commonwealth of

Independent States (CIS) [Petermann 2006].

In 2007, the conventional world-oil reserves amounted to approx. 163.3 billion tons

and the resources to about 82 billion tons [BGR 2007]. Oil reserves are granted for at

least 40 years of constant consumption after dividing the world-oil reserves by the

annual use. Nevertheless, due to the increasing demand for oil by countries such as

China and India, the reduction of the oil reserves will be accelerated [Petermann

2006]. For the future oil demand an annual increase of approx. 1.3 percent is

forecasted [BGR 2007]. Geologists make an assumption based on the fact that

already 90 percent of all oil beds have been found.

Oil extraction will become more cost-intensive in the future. Costly offshore

production plays an increasingly important role for the oil companies [Petermann

2006]. Beside modern production methods for the conventional oil production,

increasing oil prices become profitable due to the lack of new expensive processes in

the field of non-conventional oil production.

The oil companies have already increased the production of non-conventional crude

oil such as oil sand and oil slate. As an example we can take the oil groups Shell and

ExxonMobil, which are investing in the oil production in Canada using oil sand

[Petermann 2006]. The reserves in non-conventional crude oil are estimated to

approx. 41 percent of the reserves in conventional crude oil [BGR 2007].

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4 Summary

If we take all key points of the above chapters into consideration, we can conclude

the following:

Contribution to global climate changes:

· Development

of

the industrialisation

· Development of the world population

· Rapidly increasing demand for resources

· Rapidly increasing demand for energy

· Supply of fossil energy sources strongly increased

· Development

of

the living standards

· Increase of sulphur and nitric oxide

· Volatile hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide through air, water and soil

· The high emission of carbon dioxide (CO2), originating from the use of fossil

energy sources

Signs of the climate changes as examples:

· Stronger precipitation in the regions of Canada and Northern Europe

· Sinking rainwater in the regions of Africa

· More frequent cyclones

· Rising sea temperatures

· Evanescent mountain glaciers and melting ice in the Arctic and Greenland

Estimated annual costs used to cover global climate damages:

· 200 billion American dollars

The majority of the climatologists agree on the folloing:

"there is a connection between global climate changes and increasing greenhouse

gases in the special CO2 in the atmosphere"

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Fossil fuel:

· Today crude oil performs a portion of approximately 37 percent of the global

energy consumption

· Oil is used to approximately 70 percent in traffic, in waterways and in the air

· Therefore, due to the high consumption of fossil fuel, the awareness about the

oil reserves must be increased

· Around 3.9 billion tons yearly are currently extracted worldwide from

conventional crude oil

· The

global

consumption

figures nearly correspond to those of the production

· About 75.6 percent of the conventional crude oil is extracted in countries of the

Far East, the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), Africa and in North

America

· 43.8 percent of the conventional oil will be produced by the Organization of the

Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13)

· The OPEC states possess nearly 80 percent of the global oil reserve

· Western Europe disposes of approximately 2 percent of the global world

reserve

· Oil reserves are granted for at least 40 years of constant consumption after

dividing the world-oil reserves by the annual use

· Due to the increasing demand for oil by countries such as China and India, the

reduction of the oil reserves will be accelerated

· Geologists make an assumption based on the fact that already 90 percent of

all oil beds have been found

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Closing words form the Author:

In conclusion, I would like to point out that that there is a certain degree of

interdependency between a large number of countries that do not have the same

political view, society forms or the same understanding of human rights.

In the future, there is going to be a political and economical challenge if the

demand for crude oil is bigger than the production itself. The political impact from

the supplying countries on our policy will rise and this will have major

consequences.

The same situation is valid for the economical system. Our economical system

also depends on the constant delivery of the demanded amount of crude oil at all

times and also for a reasonable price.

This has a direct impact on our competitive product delivery in the world market

and therefore also on the gross income of the state. This will on the other hand

have an impact on our society as we know and the consequences are surely not

positive.

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List of literature

[BGR 2007]

Rempel, H. o.a., Institut Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und

Rohstoffe, Hannover, in: Jahresbericht 2007

,,Reserven, Ressourcen und
Verfügbarkeit von Energierohstoffen 2007"

, 24.11.2008

URL:http://www.bgr.bund.de

[BR 2007]

Bundesregierung, in: BULLETIN DER BUNDESREGIERUNG

Nr. 73-3 vom 5. Juli 2007, Berlin, 2007

URL:http://www.bundesregierung.de/Content/DE/Bulletin/2007/07/Anlagen/73-3-

bmu-bt,property=publicationFile.pdf

[EC 2008]

European Commission, in: Net imports of crude oil and petroleum

products (1.000 toe) from 1995 to 2006, last update 15.10.2008

URL:http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=0&langu

age=en&pcode=ten00084 (30.11.2008)

[Heinberg 2005]

Heinberg, R.:

The Party′s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial
Societies

, New Society Publishers, 2005, ISBN 0865715297, 9780865715295

[Heinloth 2003]

Heinloth, K.:

Energiefrage ­ Bedarf und Potenziale, Nutzung,
Risiken und Kosten

, in: 2nd edition., Braunschweig/Wiesbaden, 2003, ISBN 978-3-

528-13106-7

[IEA 2008]

International Energy Agency (IEA), in:

KEY WORLD ENERGY
STATISTICS 2008

, Head of Communication and Information Office 9 rue de la

Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France, OECD/IEA, 2008

URL:http://www.iea.org/Textbase/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1199

[Petermann 2006]

Petermann, J.:

Energiefrage Sichere Energie im 21. Jahrhundert

,

in: 1st edition, Hoffmann und Campe, 2006, ISBN 978-3-455-09554-8

[Rebhan 2002]

Rebhan, E.:

Energiehandbuch: Gewinnung, Wandlung und Nutzung
von Energie

, Springer-Verlag, 2002, ISBN 354041259X, 9783540412595

[Stern 2007]

Stern, Nicholas: Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate

Change, Cambridge 2007, S. 131

[UN 1998]

UNITED NATIONS:

KYOTO PROTOCOL TO THE UNITED NATIONS
FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE,

D-Bonn, 1998

URL:http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/background/items/1351.p

hp (30.11.2008)

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