A Climate for Change

A concept for mitigating climate change
and at the same time economically lowering population growth,
bridging official negotiation positions of the Indian, the Chinese and the US-administrations

by

Dirk Heine

Content

Abstract 3

Introduction: Climate Change as A Major Threat to Development in India and China 4

The Conflict: Pushing Around Responsibility Leads to Current Standstill 5

No time left – The economic impact of climate change for India and China 6
A concept for reductions of GHG emissions down to sustainable levels that follows the USposition

to include India and China while respecting their need for development 6

Idea of an international, free trading of CO2-emission permits and the likely role of China, India and the USA in this trade 9

Suggested design of a real international emissions trade 9
The cost of climate change mitigation for MEDCs; the impact of the introduction of the new

market on position of the Sino-Indian region towards the MEDCs and on the Sino-Indian relationship 11
How linking each nation′s gross amount of emission permits to its population size at a base year

could give a strong incentive for every country to lower their population size 13
Western responsibility for historic CO2-emissions – Eastern responsibility for historic

population increases? - Idea of placing the base year into the 20th century 14

Not realistic? 15

This essay is the result of about 20 presentations on climate change and renewable energy delivered by the
author at Peking University (P.R. China), Li Po Chun United World College (Hong Kong S.A.R.), Sun Yat Sen
University of Guangzhou (P.R. China) and Meckelfeld Grammar School (Germany) between 2003 and 2007.The
ideas contained in this work are also inspirations from numerous people who gave their input in Q&A sessions
and discussions. Thanks to all of them and thanks especially to Cathy Kunkel and Cheng Qian without whom
writing this essay would not have been possible!
 

Abstract

One of the major vindications for the US not signing Kyoto is that the treaty does not contain any legally binding emission reduction targets for China and India, although these countries have become respectively the second and fifth biggest emitter of CO₂.¹ India and China -in return- claim that a path of development that would not harm the climate is too expensive for them; the West has to pay for a historical responsibility that stems from its past emissions, which brought about anthropogenic climate change in the first place. In this way the blame is passed from one nation to the other, and in the meantime all three countries keep on increasing their gross emissions.² The essay identifies that part of the problem is the current perspective in intergovernmental emission reduction negotiation. All negotiation is about how much the global top-polluters agree to reduce their emissions. Kyoto left open to what value of CO₂-equivalent countries ultimately have to reduce their emissions. Thus it was also not possible to tell how much India and China can increase their emissions. The essay rationalises how the exclusiveness of a top-down negotiation increases the cost of climate change mitigation in the US, as in China and India, by constricting the US-suggestion of international CO₂- emission trading to the inflexible Clean Development Mechanism. It describes how China and India could be integrated into emissions trading by setting a definite limit to each country′s emissions of CO₂-equivalent. Here John Rawl′s Original Position is used to identify that this value should be found on a per-capita basis. The essay follows on to analyse the effect that the introduction of such a huge new market would have on the Sino-Indian region compared to the West, and additionally how it could alter the economic relationships between China and India. The essay then presents two ideas on how the cost of this trading scheme would be divided between economically more developed countries and less economically developed countries, in order to improve the political feasibility of the concept. Finally, the essay explains how linking each nation′s gross amount of emission permits to the population size at a base year could give a strong economic incentive towards all countries world-wide to lower their populations.

Introduction: Climate Change as A Major Threat to Development in India and China When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change presented its Fourth Assessment Report this February in Paris, leaders from all over the world expressed their deep concern about climate change. The discussion whether or not climate change is caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations is over. Or, as Hu Jintao, the president of China put it “Climate change was only a scientific issue in the past, but at present it is a reality.”³ Climate change -Hu concluded- was an “issue of development”⁴. This essay shall identify the severe consequences climate change is already having on the development of China and India. It the follows on to suggest a concept on how India and China could participate meaningfully in the global climate change mitigation that both countries deeply need and how we can bridge both the US and the Indian and Chinese government′s positions in making this possible.

For India and China the effects of climate change are dramatic and they cover the whole region: Glaciers in western China′s Qinghai-Tibet plateau, known as the “roof of the world”, are melting at a rate of 7 percent annually.⁵ The Yellow River Valley- which is the very birthplace of the Chinese Han majority- is now suffering from constant water shortage. From the Western provinces of Xinjiang, Qinghai and Gansu, the Gobi Desert is coming so close to China′s East that even Beijing is under the danger of being invaded by it.⁶ Last year the sand storms dumped 300,000 metric tons on the city in two days alone⁷. At the same time, China′s Southern provinces are fighting against the effects of increased frequency of rainfalls that virtually wash away villages. While climate change already endangers the standard of living of many of China′s and India′s peasant majority it presents a serious threat to the whole economy of both countries. Perspectives for both countries to keep on developing at their current pace seem to vanish considering current climate developments. 2005 probably was not only the warmest year since the measurement of temperatures but also the year with the largest annual increase in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. And a perceived world-wide lack of meaningful political action to counteract this trend leads the United Nation′s Inter- Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to predict that the global average temperature could rise by +4°C⁸ until 2050 (medium estimate: +2.8°C⁹ ) which is way over the threshold level of +2.0° at which scientist expect environmental systems to collapse – threatening the basis of living of millions of Chinese and Indians.

The Conflict: Pushing Around Responsibility Leads to Current Standstill

[...]

1 ′Each Country′s Share of CO2 Emissions′ 2000, Union of Concerned Scientists, [Online] Available a http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/each-countrys-share-of-co2-emissions.html

2 ibid

3 The State of The Climate at The China Meteorological Bureau, (2007, February 6). Press Conference [in Chinese], from http://news.qianlong.com/28874/2007/02/06/183@3661130.htm

4 The State of The Climate at The China Meteorological Bureau (2007, February 6). Press Conference [in Chinese], from http://news.qianlong.com/28874/2007/02/06/183@3661130.htm

5 China Daily (03.05.2006). Roof of the World , from http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2006- 05/03/content_582276.htm

6 Gluckman, Ron (2000). Beijing′s Desert Storm, from http://www.gluckman.com/ChinaDesert.html Brown, Lester R (2003). Earth Policy Institute. China loosing war with advancing deserts, From http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update26.htm

7 Tibetan Glaciers Reported Melting at Rapid Rate, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,193970,00.html, 3May2006

8 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers, page 11, from http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/docs/WG1AR4_SPM_Approved_05Feb.pdf

9 Temperature increase of the A1B scenario that the IPCC considers most likely. The A1B is seen as the ′middle scenario′. Temperatures are however likely to be higher than A1B assumes since the model cannot take into account of the so-called ′positive feedback mechanisms′ the impact of which is feared to become drastic when the biological thresholds are crossed.