Olesja Buechner Population growth and poverty 06.10.2003

1804, the second billion already in 1927, 23 years later the third and in 1974 the fourth billion. In 1987 the world population amounted five billion and finally the today's conditions of nearly 6.4 billion people has been reached. Therefore it becomes clear that the time intervals will shorten to the next billions. (Geoscience, 1998-2001, Homepage) Illustration 1 shows the world population trend until 2100.

It was frequently reverted to the “demographic transition theory" (Handwerker, 1986, p.2) to interpret the worldwide population trend, which develops from the experiences of the European population process. According to this theory, birth and mortality rates are very high in traditional societies (stage 1). (Simmons, 1988, p.92) Where a large number of child deaths is prevailed and the population is decimated by epidemics, hunger emergencies and wars, many children need to be born. Consequently the society remains in demographic balance. However this stable situation changes with the decrease of the mortality rate. Based on the medical- hygienic progress the mortality rate has been lowered, but the birth rate remains equivalent (stage 2). (Simmons, 1988, p.92) These resulting problems could be captured in Europe, because the agrarian revolution enlarged the food basis since the end of the 17th century and the industrial revolution created a large number of jobs. Also the exploitation of resources from the colonies played an important role. The large number of emigration, particularly to North America, facilitated the demographic pressure. Increasingly the economical and social modernisation process introduced social security systems. That decreased the existence threat through illness, accident or disablement risk. Thus the necessity was reduced to have many children, which introduced a change of the generative behaviour. The birth rate adapted to the mortality rate, a new demographic balance on lower level had arisen (stage 3). (Muenz, Ulrich, 2002, Homepage) Meanwhile this balance turns over toward a decrease of population in some parts of Europe.

The question is whether the demographic transition in developing countries could take place in a similar way as in Europe. After all 97 percent of the worldwide population growth are in developing countries. (Coiplet, 2001, Homepage) But there are substantial differences between the European and “Third World” development. Actually in the today's development countries there were no pre- increases in the agricultural sectors and the associated increase of the food production. The industrial

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Olesja Buechner Population growth and poverty 06.10.2003

revolution have not taken place in kind and extent, which would make it possible to create a large number of jobs for an increasing population. Migration possibilities are missing, as they were given to the Europeans by the new colonies in the last centuries. Instead of political and economical erroneous trends, insufficient development strategies and the strong population growth contributed to the emergence of mass poverty. That makes the demographic transition substantially more difficult in some regions of the world. Beyond that traditional, cultural and religious values have also influenced the family size. Therefore the demographic transition theory needs to be understood as a possibility to relax the situation of world population, but not as a “law“, that prognosticates surely.

But the demographic theory is not the first theory which tries to explain the dramatically population trend. There are many other explanation attempts, which cannot be designated in this essay. But one of the longest discussed theories is those of Robert Malthus.

Consequences of the population of over - hunger

The vision of an overpopulated and underfed planet had been developed by Thomas Robert Malthus in his “Essay of the principle of population as it affects the future improvement of society” in 1798. (Malthus, 1798, Homepage) That was a time, when England was characterized by the agricultural era and the industrial revolution began. Malthu’s doctrine stated that the population would grow exponentially, while the quantity of grain would increase only linear. Therefore it must inevitably lead to hunger emergencies.

Hunger is a problem without an end. Only the modern economy could reduce this lack. In addition it actually succeeded to reduce the percentage of those inhabitants, which suffer from malnutrition from 29 percent to 18 percent within the last 20 years. (Haas, 2001, Homepage). Due to the population growth the absolute number of undernourished people did not change particularly. About 815 million people are undernourished and 20,000 children starve every day. According to FAO the number of those people has risen considerably in most developing countries during the nineties (Haas, 2001, Homepage). Inevitably the question is been forced, if

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Olesja Buechner Population growth and poverty 06.10.2003

nevertheless Malthus is right, that those people could be help by an increase of food production?

Hunger is a problem of bad distribution and not of a lack in production. The first (most privileged) 10 percent of the population use 30 percent of the available food. Going further, about 23 percent of the population use half of the food, and half of the population uses 75% of the food. (Lutz, 2002, p. 207) In addition developing countries cultivate far more agricultural effective areas per capita than in Europe. The self-sufficiency degree of the developing countries sinks nevertheless. Reasons are the not only ineffective, but also wrong agriculture, which leads to poverty and hunger. On these large surfaces cash crops as coffee, tea, cacao, soy bone etc. are cultivated to achieve export incomes. (Brendel, 2003, Homepage). That happens mostly on best soils under intensive use of water, fertilizer etc.. Furthermore the predominant worldwide part of the grain, corn and the soybean are used as food for cattle. Also structural determinations cause hunger. Intensive farming are subsidized by the West and as a result the rice is pressed down in the Third World. Therefore each chance of survival is taken from the resident farmers. This dynamics can also been shown in developing countries, where large companies displace the small-scale farming’s and lead the population into dangerous dependence. (Brendel, 2003, Homepage) For the sake of the completeness it needs to be added that regional hunger disasters have also been activated by wars (Iraq, Afghanistan, the Congo, Liberia etc..) or the mismanagement of totalitarian regime (as in North Korea). “Hunger is both a violation of human dignity and an obstacle to social, political and economic progress. International law recognizes that everyone has the fundamental right to be free from hunger, and 22 countries have enshrined food rights in their constitutions. National governments must do everything possible to ensure that people have the physical and economic access to enough safe, nutritious food to lead healthy and active lives.” That is said in the World Food Summit 2002 Fact sheet. (FAO, 2002, Homepage)

Hunger is one of many other consequences of overpopulation. It has to be pointed out again that hunger is not under any circumstances the only result of overpopulation and that a country does not need to suffer coercive from hunger because it is overpopulated. However connections exist between these two facts.

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Olesja Buechner Population growth and poverty 06.10.2003

But often hunger is released by an overpopulated country. Therefore it is important to clarify where the causes of overpopulation are.

Causes of the overpopulation

The most important factors, which are essentially responsible for the development of the world population are inadvertent births due to a lack of access to adequate family planning and preventives. A further reason is the recent age structure. One fifth of the world population are younger than 20 years. In following years as many young people as ever will reach the adult age (see Illustration 3). Since young people gain sexual experiences earlier than generations before, the enlightenment is a substantial condition for conscious handling with sexuality and the connection to the development of the world population. (DSW, 1999, Homepage) A further reason is the lowering number of deaths due to the more rising medical supply. Successful campaigns took place for the fight against diseases. In addition, the general health was improved by better potable water supply and nutrition. (DSW, 1999, Homepage) Obviously the reason for a high children number is more multilayered and more complex. Therefore the child desire is connected with the respective economic conditions. In a less mechanised farming children are important workers. Where legal pension and health insurances are missing, children insure the old-age pension of their parents. Last many children are also seen as wealth for national, traditional and religious reasons. (Ulrich, 1999, Homepage)

One of the substantial causes is the underestimation of the role of women. At the latest since the UN World Conference on Women 1995 in Peking the fact was clear that “the improvement of the subsistence of women is essential for each attempt to fight against poverty”. (BMZ, 2003b, Homepage)

A lot of facts are shown in the last few parts. Now it is interesting to discover, what has been done by national governments and on international level to decrease overpopulation as well as poverty. On national level solution attempts will be discussed on the basis of the population control in China and on international level the Cairo Conference and their results in order to decrease the overpopulation.

Measures on national and international level

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