S e i t e  I

Table of  Contents  

TABLE OF  CONTENTS  I

  LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS  II

  LIST OF FIGURES  III

1  INTRODUCTION  1

2  CLIMATE CHANGE AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT  2

2.1  NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT  2

2.2  ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE EFFECT  4

2.3  CONSEQUENCES AND FORECASTS  6

3  THE KYOTO PROTOCOL  9

3.1  DEFINITION OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL  10

3.2  DEFINITION OF THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES  10

3.3  THE ROAD TO KYOTO AND BEYOND  10

3.4  CONTENT OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL  20

3.5  FLEXIBLE MECHANISMS  22

3.5.1  Emission Bubbles  22

3.5.2  Joint Implementation (JI)  23

3.5.3  Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)  24

3.5.4  International Emission Trading (IET)  26

4  BENEFITS AND EXPECTED RESULTS OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL  27

4.1  REDUCED RATE OF GLOBAL WARMING  27

4.2  BETTER CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS  27

4.3  BETTER HEALTH CONDITIONS  27

4.4  LONG-TERM ECONOMIC BENEFITS  28

4.5  FLEXIBILITY IN MEETING EMISSION TARGETS  28

5  CRITICISM AND PROBLEMS  28

5.1  EMISSION REDUCTIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT GLOBAL WARMING  28

5.2  THE PROBLEM WITH SINKS  30

5.3  THE ABSENCE OF THE USA  31

5.4  2012 AND THEN?  32

6  ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK  33

7  APPENDICES:  36

7.1  APPENDIX I:  36

7.2  APPENDIX II  37

7.3  APPENDIX III  37

  REFERENCES  IV

  BIBLIOGRAPHY:  VI

BAU Business as Usual CDM Clean Development Mechanism CO2 Carbon Dioxide CH 4 Methane COP Conference of the Parties GHG Greenhouse Gas H 2 O Water vapor ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions INC Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JI Joint Implementation LULUCF Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry N 2 O Nitrous oxide OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development O3 Ozone ppm parts per million UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNEP United Nations Environment Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization

Figure 1: Global Temperature Trend 1850- 2005 2

Figure 2: Global abundances of key greenhouse gases in December 2004 5

Figure 3: Annual greenhouse gas emissions by sector 5-6

Figure 4: Shares of global energy based CO2 emissions, 2001 6

Figure 5: Projected changes in global temperature 7

Figure 6: Sea level rise due to global warming 8

Figure 7: Percentage change of the 6 greenhouse gas emissions in comparison to

1990 23

The prize is precious- to bequeath to all our children a world as rich in life and opportunity as the one we inherited. But time is short. Action is required now if we are to win the battle against climate change.”

International Climate Change Taskforce, January 2005

1 Introduction

The debate around the climate policy of the earth is absolutely one of most complicated and most important of our time, even if it owns no big public lobby of spectacular events. Some small island states in the South Pacific are worried by the forecast increase of the sea level above their living space. Again others see in the warming of the terrestrial atmosphere only one of the regularly returning climate variations and no reason for concern.

Hence, it is even more astonishing that one has succeeded in spite of these opinion differences in bringing this discourse in Kyoto to a result and in negotiating a protocol, which supports the process. The result of the discussion was in 1997 the Kyoto Protocol, which is to be seen till the present as a milestone in international climate policy. For a long time it was uncertain, whether it one day will come into effect - however, it has: The Kyoto Protocol obliged from the 16th February, 2005 after many years tough negotiations, more than 30 industrial states under international law to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Concerning this event, the following questions arise: what does the Kyoto Protocol signify? What does it contain and how effective can it really be? The present work looks at these questions.

Firstly, the natural and the anthropogenic greenhouse effect and the following predictions should be shown as bases to make clear the necessity of active climate protection policy. Afterwards the Kyoto Protocol is explained in its climate-political connections, contents and instruments and, in the end, benefits and critical points will be shown.

In my opinion, criticism is necessary to allow a comprising assessment of the protocol. Finally, it must be emphasized that with the given time a complete

representation of such a complicated subject area will not be possible. Therefore, I will explain the most important issues and give a general overview rather than go into details in order to treat the subject as the whole.

2 Climate change and greenhouse effect

Earth’s climate is determined by complex interactions among several subsystems: the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. The Sun is the principal driving force for climate. Climate change may be due to both internal changes within climate system or external factors (both natural and anthropogenic). The UNFCC defines climate change as “change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere” (McMichael, Anthony J. 2003, p. 287). Indeed, already in 1896 the Swedish chemist Arrhenius formulated a greenhouse hypothesis, which has accepted a connection between risen green gas emissions and global temperature changes (Mittendorf 2004, p.5). A rapid increase in the average temperature is one of the indicators for changes in climate. For example Figure 1 shows that since the late 1850's, the global average temperature has increased about 0.7 to 1.4 °F (0.4 to 0.8 °C).

Figure 1: Global Temperature Trend 1850- 2005

Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/101%5FScience%5FImpacts%2Epdf

2.1 Natural greenhouse effect

The life on our planet can depend on a number of factors. The most important factor is atmosphere. If the Earth had no atmosphere, its average surface temperature would be lower than it is now and Earth would be a frozen planet. Greenhouse gases

(GHGs) in the atmosphere contribute to global warming. They are called greenhouse gases, because they behave like glass in a greenhouse, allowing sunlight to pass through but trapping the heat formed and preventing it from escaping, thereby causing a rise in temperature. This warming process is also called the natural greenhouse effect ¹ , caused rather by natural and not by human sources and provided for the fact that the earth is inhabitable for us people. Especially big, natural sources are the oceans from which escape according to the estimates ² up to 400 million metric tons of methane (CH4) per year. The main natural greenhouse gases also are:

H 2 O (water vapor):

It is a kind of gaseous water (individual water molecules) in the atmosthere. Human activity has little direct impact on the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere; however, changes in its concentration are an indirect result of climate feedbacks related to the warming of the atmosphere.

CH 4 (methane):

Methane is a colorless, odorless, flammable gas. It is formed when plants decay and where there is very little air. It is often called swamp gas because it is abundant around water and swamps ³ .

CO2 (Carbon Dioxide):

It is a colorless, odorless non-flammable gas and is the most prominent greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere. It is recycled through the atmosphere by the process photosynthesis, which makes human life possible. Photosynthesis is the process of green plants and other organisms transforming light energy into chemical energy4. Carbon Dioxide is emitted into the air as every living creature or plant on earth exhale or it gets into the atmosphere when solid waste, fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), and wood or wood products are burned.

¹ For more information see: www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/global-warming-faq.htm

² For more information see: http://www.killerinourmidst.com/methane%20catastrophe.html

³ www.envirolink.org/orgs/edf/sitemap.html

⁴ http://www.britannica.com/ebi/article-9273513

O 3 (ozone):

Is found in small quantities in the atmosphere (especially after a thunderstorm) and

forms a protective layer in the upper atmosphere ⁵ .

N 2 O (nitrous oxide):

Is another colorless greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of 320 and released naturally from oceans and by bacteria in soils. Major sources of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) include soil cultivation practices, fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning. 6

Following I will describe the human activities which are causing the climate change.

2.2 Anthropogenic greenhouse effect

Human activities are also increasing the concentration of the naturally existing greenhouse gases, and adding new ones such as halocarbons (HFCs). The most commonly known halocarbons are CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons), HCFCs (hydrochlorofluorocarbons) and HFCs (hydroflurocarbons). Their most common use is in refrigeration and air conditioning technologies but they are also used heavily in the electric system infrastructure. ⁷ If anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions increase the atmospheric concentrations of these gases, these will raise global average annual surface and air temperatures. Other potential indirect impacts of global warming are changes in precipitation quantity and pattern, changes in vegetation cover and soil moisture, increased intensity of tropical storms and a rise in sea level due to the melting of Antarctic ice sheets. From the economic and social point of view these indirect impacts will be more important than direct changes in temperature.

Present measurements show that atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases have been increasing since the industrial revolution due to human activities. Followed Figure 2 summarises pre-industrial and concentrations in December 2004 and rates of changes to the year 1750, as well as the mean annual absolute increase during last 10 years. Water vapour and ozone are two greenhouse gases that have not

⁵ http://www.babylon.com/definition/ozone/

⁶ http://www.lenntech.com/greenhouse-effect/climate-change-glossary.htm#N

⁷ http://www.mtpc.org/cleanenergy/energy/glossaryenvironment.htm

been included in this table. This is because concentrations of water vapour are determined internally within the climate system, and it is difficult to quantify changes in the concentration of ozone as a result of human activity.

Figure 2: Global abundances of key greenhouse gases in December 2004

Source: http://www.wmo.ch/web/arep/gaw/ghg/ghg-bulletin-en-03-06.pdf, p.2

Notes:

ppm= parts per million

Figure 3 gives the anthropogenic sources of the main greenhouse gases in the year 2000. According to the diagram below, greenhouse gases from power stations, industrial processes and transport have played a major role in the recently observed global warming. Furthermore, measurements show that CO2 contribute about 72 % of the direct radiative forcing. In its case we can say this gas contributes most to the enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse effect.

Figure 3: Annual greenhouse gas emissions by sector

Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e0/Greenhouse_Gas_by_Sector.png

The World Resources Institute estimates that about 60% of global emissions in 2000 came from carbon dioxide emissions from energy use (WRI 2003).According to WRI, six nations (United States, European Union, China, Russia, Japan and India) account for nearly half of global emissions and nearly two-thirds of carbon dioxide emissions from energy. The United States alone accounts for more than one-fifth of global energy-related emissions (see Figure 4). 8

Figure 4: Shares of global energy based CO2 emissions, 2001

Source: http://www.wri.org/business/pubs_content_text.cfm?cid=2173

2.3 Consequences and forecasts

Concerning the cognition about the increase of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect and its consequences on the global climate, the different forecasts are made for the future, which reach in the extreme case from fickle changes of the climate up to a chaotic behavior of the climate trials.

⁸ http://www.wri.org/business/pubs_content_text.cfm?cid=2173