Rostows 5-Stadien-Theorie
Walter Whitman Rostow was an American Economist who was best known for his five stage theory of development, 'The Stages of Economic Growth; A
Non-Communist Manifesto'.
He acted as special adviser to Presidents Kennedy and Johnson in the sixties and became a Professor of Economics and History at the University of Texas in 1969.
His other works include 'Politics and the Stages of Growth' and 'Theorists of Economic Growth From David Hume to the Present'.
The five stages of growth are now described below. 1: Traditional society
The first stage can be represented by Britain in Medieval times. Settlements are self-sufficient and many rely on subsistence farming (where they eat their own
produce and have very little surplus to sell). Agriculture is the main form of employment, there is only basic manufacturing industry (such as simple tool making) and
there is an absence of any tertiary sector.
Power centres around the local landlord, who is at the top of the hierarchial system. Ancient technology and poor transport infrastructure mean that it is not unusual
for people to stay all their life in the local area. 2: Preconditions for take off
In order to pull away from the traditional stage, a country needs to experience a 'shock'. This could be a civil war or a leap in technology. People need to review their
way of life and recognise the need for change.
Eventually, a financial sector begins to emerge and savings and investment grow – but only to around 5% of the country's GDP. Trade is encouraged by advances in
transport, but is still only likely to take place within the country. 3: The take off
Markets become established and replace the traditional subsistence farming. This results in rapid income growth and in turn savings and investment ratios increase (up
to 15% of GDP), breaking into a virtuous cycle. However, market failure soon becomes apparent and the need for regulation of the markets is seen.
Britain was the first country in the world to enter the take off stage and did so in the late eighteenth century, followed by America, Japan and Russia.
4: The drive to maturity
Growth soon spreads to all parts of the country and the traditional society becomes extinct as rapid industrialisation encourages migration from rural to urban areas.
5: High mass consumption
High output levels are reached and more consumer durables are produced – there is increased ownership of televisions, cars, fridges etc. Personal incomes are high,
goods and services are readily available and people no longer worry about being able to secure the basic necessities of life. They devote a greater proportion of their
time to leisure.
A dodgy analogy
The development process can be likened to the operation of a train (or plane). In the traditional society the train is in the station and is at a standstill. During the
preconditions stage, the passengers and crew members board, the points are set and the signal is set to green.
The 'take off' stage sees the train slowly leave the station, while passengers are still moving around trying to find a seat. In the drive to maturity the train picks up
speed – and the age of mass consumption is reached when the train is travelling at high speed. Analysing the model
The time it takes to pass through the stages has fallen in the case of countries like Canada and Australia because they have learnt from earlier nations such as Britain
and France.
In reality, the stages may merge together and it may be difficult to tell when a country is entering a new stage.
Many countries do not follow the routine in the order
that Rostow suggested – Canada actually seemed to enter the age of high mass consumption before maturity.
The model is too generalised, and whilst it may explain
one country's growth experience, another's may be completely different.
If a country is struck by disaster such as flooding, an earthquake or a civil war, then it may actually fall back a stage in the model and will have to advance through
that stage once again.
Rostow suggested that during the second stage the savings ratio will have to rise in order for investment to take place and eventually growth.
However, we have to assume that the saving funds are channelled effectively into investment projects, and this may not be the case if the financial institutions are not
efficient.
These investments have got to be productive and have a high Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR). In addition to this, the government will have to develop the
country's infrastructure (for example – roads, railways, ports, hospitals and schools) so that the country can enter the take off stage and join the global economy
without putting strain on this essential infrastructure.
The theory was developed in the middle of the twentieth century and Rostow could not have foreseen the effect of technological innovation, which has resulted in high
'mass-personal consumption' through increased access to information (eg. through the Internet).
Rostow's theory was also used to support the argument for the US form of capitalism during the fifties and sixties – it had an ideological basis, and the validity of the
theory can perhaps be questioned on this account.
Despite these criticisms, Rostow's Model is still highly regarded today and does recognise the importance of having the right political, economic and social conditions
for growth. Overall it is a very credible theory – considering it was written over forty years ago.
Häufig gestellte Fragen zu Rostows 5-Stadien-Theorie
Wer war Walter Whitman Rostow?
Walter Whitman Rostow war ein amerikanischer Wirtschaftswissenschaftler, der vor allem für seine Fünf-Stadien-Theorie der Entwicklung bekannt war, die er in seinem Werk 'The Stages of Economic Growth; A Non-Communist Manifesto' darlegte. Er war Berater der Präsidenten Kennedy und Johnson und später Professor für Wirtschaftswissenschaften und Geschichte an der University of Texas.
Was sind die fünf Stadien von Rostows Theorie?
Die fünf Stadien sind: 1. Traditionelle Gesellschaft, 2. Vorbedingungen für den Aufschwung (Take-off), 3. Der Aufschwung (Take-off), 4. Der Weg zur Reife, 5. Hoher Massenkonsum.
Was kennzeichnet die traditionelle Gesellschaft?
Die traditionelle Gesellschaft ist gekennzeichnet durch Selbstversorgung, Subsistenzwirtschaft, geringe Industrialisierung, eine hierarchische Struktur mit dem lokalen Grundbesitzer an der Spitze und geringe Mobilität.
Was ist notwendig, um sich von der traditionellen Gesellschaft zu lösen?
Ein "Schock" ist notwendig, beispielsweise ein Bürgerkrieg oder ein Technologiesprung, der ein Umdenken und die Notwendigkeit von Veränderungen bewirkt.
Was passiert während des "Take-off" Stadiums?
Märkte etablieren sich, die Subsistenzwirtschaft wird ersetzt, das Einkommenswachstum beschleunigt sich, und die Spar- und Investitionsquoten steigen. Es entsteht jedoch auch Marktversagen, was eine Regulierung erforderlich macht.
Was geschieht während des Stadiums des "Wegs zur Reife"?
Das Wachstum breitet sich im ganzen Land aus, die traditionelle Gesellschaft verschwindet, und die Industrialisierung führt zur Migration vom Land in die Stadt.
Was charakterisiert den "hohen Massenkonsum"?
Hohe Produktionsmengen werden erreicht, Konsumgüter werden in großem Umfang produziert, das Einkommen ist hoch, Güter und Dienstleistungen sind leicht verfügbar, und die Menschen widmen mehr Zeit der Freizeit.
Welche Kritik gibt es an Rostows Theorie?
Die Kritik umfasst, dass die Theorie zu verallgemeinernd ist, dass die Stadien ineinander übergehen können, dass Länder die Stadien nicht immer in der vorgeschlagenen Reihenfolge durchlaufen, dass sie die Auswirkungen technologischer Innovationen nicht berücksichtigt und dass sie eine ideologische Grundlage hatte, die die Gültigkeit der Theorie in Frage stellen könnte.
Welche Bedeutung hat Rostows Modell heute noch?
Trotz der Kritik wird Rostows Modell immer noch geschätzt, da es die Bedeutung der richtigen politischen, wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Bedingungen für das Wachstum anerkennt und insgesamt eine glaubwürdige Theorie darstellt, insbesondere angesichts ihres Alters.
- Quote paper
- Kristian Miska (Author), 2001, Rostows 5-Stadien-Theorie, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/101482
