When discussing peace and regionalism, often only the peace creating dimension of regional integration is covered. In this paper, a more critical understanding of regional integration will be presented by including possible negative side effects that could influence the emergence of military conflict at the periphery of regional organizations.
To analyse whether this theoretical foundation is sufficient to explain the Ukrainian war, the pa-per will first draw a wider picture of European and Russian regionalism strategies to highlight the competitive dimension of regional economic integration. Afterwards this state of competition will be illustrated in detail by analysing the complex foreign policy and trade situation between the Ukraine, Russia and EU after the end of the Cold War until the beginning of the conflict. At the end, the results of the analysis will be summarized and discussed. Based on that, possible implications for regional eco-nomic integration in general will be deduced. The discussion of possible reasons for the outbreak of the Ukrainian war is of undeniable relevance, as a theoretical understanding might help to prevent similar events.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Theory
2.1 Regional Economic Integration
2.2 Economic Integration as a source of conflict
3 EU vs. Russia – Competing Regionalism
4 Economic and political relations of the Ukraine
5 Discussion: Reasons the for the conflict
6 Conclusion and Implications
Objectives and Research Themes
This seminar paper investigates whether regional economic integration contributes to the emergence of military conflicts, specifically analyzing the case of the conflict in Ukraine. By expanding traditional liberal theories with concepts of "trade diversion" and "economic competition," the research explores the tensions arising when regional powers, such as the EU and Russia, compete for economic influence over a neighboring state.
- Theoretical expansion of the liberal peace concept regarding third-party states.
- Comparative analysis of EU and Russian regionalism strategies.
- Detailed case study of the economic and political history of Ukraine post-1991.
- Empirical evaluation of trade patterns and their correlation with conflict emergence.
- Assessment of economic interests versus geopolitical factors in the Ukrainian crisis.
Excerpt from the Book
Economic Integration as a source of conflict
The question of what connection between trade and military conflict might exist is a heated debate within the sciences, both between and within different theory schools. But over the years, the liberal point of view, represented by authors like Solomon Polachek, seemed to get the most approval.11
Polachek’s model is quite simple: countries are trading because they expect welfare gains as a result of comparative advantage and specialization. This means that the more trade two countries have between each other, the more of their individual welfare is depending on functioning trading relations towards the other country. In the liberal school of thought welfare maximization is the primary goal of states and since war makes trade more difficult, states will have strong interest in avoiding it. Or in other words: the more two countries trade, the lower is the probability of war between them, because the costs would increasingly outweigh any possible gains.12 Therefore, if peacekeeping is the goal, any form of increased trade between countries should be encouraged, for example by economic integration. This effect of economic integration has always been an important part of the EU’s strategy to maintain peace within the European continent.13
Summary of Chapters
1 Introduction: Provides historical context on the EU and the emergence of the military conflict in Ukraine starting in 2014, outlining the scope and research design of the paper.
2 Theory: Defines regional economic integration and examines the relationship between trade and conflict, specifically introducing the concepts of "peace creation," "trade diversion," and "economic competition."
2.1 Regional Economic Integration: Explains the theoretical stages of economic integration as defined by Béla Balassa.
2.2 Economic Integration as a source of conflict: Contrasts standard liberal theories with critical perspectives on how integration can lead to trade diversion and, consequently, conflict.
3 EU vs. Russia – Competing Regionalism: Compares the expansion strategies of the EU and Russia in Eastern Europe, highlighting the competitive nature of their integration projects.
4 Economic and political relations of the Ukraine: Traces the foreign policy and trade evolution of Ukraine between 1991 and 2014, detailing the influence of both Western and Russian integration efforts.
5 Discussion: Reasons the for the conflict: Evaluates whether trade patterns and economic competition sufficiently explain the outbreak of war in Ukraine, considering both economic and geopolitical factors.
6 Conclusion and Implications: Summarizes findings, noting that while economic competition is observable, the high costs of war for Russia make purely trade-based motives ambiguous, suggesting that economic integration can paradoxically harbor potential for tension.
Keywords
Regional Economic Integration, Military Conflict, Ukraine, European Union, Russia, Trade Diversion, Economic Competition, Peace Diversion, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Liberal Theory, Trade War, Association Agreement, Case Study, Regionalism.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core subject of this paper?
The paper examines the link between regional economic integration and the likelihood of military conflict, using the Ukraine crisis as a central case study.
What are the primary themes discussed?
The main themes include liberal theories of trade and peace, competitive regionalism between the EU and Russia, and the geopolitical and economic history of Ukraine after the Cold War.
What is the main research question?
The study seeks to answer: "Did trade interests contribute to the emergence of the military conflict in the Ukraine or not?"
Which methodology is applied in this research?
The paper employs a qualitative research design, specifically a classical case study, utilizing secondary literature and international trade data for exploratory analysis.
What does the main body cover?
It covers theoretical frameworks of integration, an analysis of competing EU and Russian regionalism, and a historical review of Ukrainian trade relations and domestic political shifts.
Which keywords best characterize this work?
The work is characterized by terms like Regional Economic Integration, Trade Diversion, Economic Competition, Ukraine, Russia, and Geopolitical Strategy.
How does the author define the concept of "trade diversion"?
Trade diversion refers to a shift in trade flows where a country begins trading with a new partner at the expense of an existing one, potentially altering the costs and benefits of war for third-party states.
Does the author conclude that trade interests caused the war?
The conclusion is ambiguous; while economic competition and trade diversion are observable, the author argues that trade interests are likely subordinated to other, more dominant geopolitical and strategic factors.
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- Artur Seng (Autor:in), 2019, Linking Regional Economic Integration and the Emergence of Military Conflict, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1024200
