Without the nile there is no Egypt. A centuries-old conflict and possible legal solutions for Ethiopia

Table of Content

1 Introduction

2 Geographical Overview
2.1 Share of Water volume

3 Geopolitical context
3.1 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

4 Legal Framework
4.1 Treaties
4.1.1 Treaty from 1891
4.1.2 Treaty from 1902
4.1.3 Nile Water Agreement from 1929
4.1.4 Treaty from 1959
4.2 Legal developments since 1959

5 Conclusion

6 References

1 Introduction

According to an article in the New York Times "Without the Nile, there is no Egypt." (Walsh & Sengupta, 2020). The construction in 2011 of the largest dam "Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam" also known as GERD (Gerard Prunier & Eloi Ficquet, 2015, p. 354) has caused dispute for centuries between Egypt and Ethiopia, (Gerard Prunier & Eloi Ficquet, 2015, p. 12) which despite several negotiations, also with the African Union as a mediator, cannot agree on the utilization of the dam (Maru, 2020, pp. 1-2). Egypt obtains most of the water it needs from the Nile which flows from Lake Tana in Ethiopia into the Blue Nile and from Lake Victoria originating in the White Nile, which crosses the borders of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania (Tvedt, 2010, p. 2). Ethiopia on the other side is one of the countries with one of the fastest growing economies in Africa, at the same time over half of the population in the country live without electricity, which could be remedied by the construction and use of the dam (International Monetary Fund Search, 2020). However, Egypt fears that Ethiopia could now gain control over the flow of the river, citing an old Anglo-Egyptian colonial treaty signed between the United Kingdom and Egypt on behalf of Ethiopia in 1929 that promises Egypt veto power and rights over the distribution and use of the Nile waters to this day (Maru, 2020, p. 5). This term paper aims at what legal tools Ethiopia can consider fighting Egypt's hegemony and revoke the Nile treaties to avoid future conflicts in the Horn of Africa over the use of the Nile waters and to improve the livelihood in region. My Thesis is that the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam poses no threat to Egypt and in this paper, I will provide a historical and geographical overview of the geopolitical conflict, followed by an explanation of the treaties that Egypt has invoked to date. I will then provide an overview of Ethiopia's legal development since 1959. At the end, I will then draw an appropriate conclusion. The following provides a geographical overview of the Nile River basin.

2 Geographical Overview

The Nile flows through a total of eleven countries and is the longest river in the world with a length of 6800 KM. It is fed by the Blue Nile in the Ethiopian highlands, which in turn draws its water from lake Tana. Furthermore The Nile is also fed by the White Nile, which sources its water from Figure 1 Shows the flow of the Nile and shows where the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam is located. At the top right you can see an orientation guide drawn on a globe. The area covered in the paper is in northeastern Africa. Figure 2 gives a more detailed overview of the Nile River Basin. On the map you can see that the Abay, which is the Ethiopian name for the Blue Nile, is fed by Lake Tana and flows further towards Khartoum in Sudan. Further on the map you can see that Lake Victoria flows south on the map across the borders of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. Lake Victoria receives its water from the Kagera River, among others, which springs in the highlands of Burundi and Rwanda. As can be seen on the map, the water from Lake Victoria then flows as Victoria Nile through Uganda into Lake Kyoga, where it then flows into Lake Albert. From there it continues to flow as Albert Nile into South Sudan and is called Bahr al-Jabal (Mountain Nile). In South Sudan it flows into the South Sudanese wetlands, which is called Sudd and after leaving Sudd it is called White Nile, which is also mentioned at the beginning of this article. The White Nile continues to flow through South Sudan to Sudan, where it then merges with the Blue Nile near Khartoum and becomes the Nile. Here it flows further north and receives more inflow from the Atbarah, which is fed by the Tekeze in the Ethiopian highlands. Then it flows further north into the artificially created reservoir called Lake Nasser and from there towards Cairo, where it also forms the Nile delta and from there flows further into the Mediterranean Sea.

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Figure 2: Nile Basin Map (Nile Basin Map, 2021)

2.1 Share of Water volume

For a better understanding of the topic, the following figure explains which of the countries mentioned in chapter 2 are the water suppliers for the Nile and how much they contribute to the Nile's water volume.

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Figure 3: The riparian countries (Abseno, 2013a)

Figure 3 shows all eleven riparian states that share the area around the Nile and are also dependent on water for their livelihoods. The total area covered by the river is approximately 3.1 million km2, distributed among all eleven riparian states. Sudan has the largest basin area with 1,993,082 km2, followed by Ethiopia with 364,925 km2 and Egypt with 303,084 km2. In the fourth column of the table you can see how much the countries contribute to the water supply of the Nile. Here you can see that Ethiopia contributes 84% of the water volume and another 16% is supplied by the rest of the countries located around the equatorial area, i.e. in the area of Victoria Lake (see figures 1 and 2). Egypt, the country in question in this paper, therefore makes no contribution to the volume of water and has the third largest basin area. In terms of the size of the country, the ratio of the Basin area and the total size of the country (second column) can be compared well. Egypt has a total area of 1,001,450 km2 and Ethiopia has a total area of 1,100,00 km2 (Abseno, 2013b, pp. 193-194).

3 Geopolitical context

For centuries, as mentioned in chapter 1, there have been conflicts and fights between Egypt and Ethiopia over the control of the Nile. Due to the natural conditions, Ethiopia had more control over the Nile and was able to give Egypt ultimatums in the past centuries, if necessary. On the other hand, Egypt's control over the Nile River has been a priority for centuries because of its natural conditions and its contribution to the flow of water, which made it dependent on the water, most of which came from the Ethiopian highlands. The colonization of Egypt by Great Britain from 1882 to 1952 resulted in various treaties which will be explained in chapter 3.2 that were intended to secure Great Britain's sovereignty over the waters of the Nile (Gebreluel, 2014, p. 26). Ethiopia has been building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam since April 2011 (Melesse et al., 2014, p. 128). The construction of the dam has contributed to the intensification of conflicts between Ethiopia and Egypt (Hamada, 2017), so in the following chapter, the construction of the dam will be explained for a better understanding.

3.1 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was started in April 2011 (Melesse et al., 2014, p. 128). Figure 1 in Chapter 2 shows that it is located on the Blue Nile at the Sudanese- Ethiopian border. The dam is considered to be one of the largest dams in Africa and has a capacity of approximately 74 billion cubic meters (Tawfik, 2016).

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Figure 4: Grand Renaissance Dam under construction (Abdelaziz, 2021)

Figure 4 shows the dam in September 2019 still under construction in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia, less than 50 kilometers from the Sudanese-Ethiopian border. When completed, it will be able to generate up to 6.4 gigawatts of energy, giving 65 million people in Ethiopia access to electricity. (Booth, p. 2) With a total population of about 100 million, this means that approximately 65% of the people are affected by this improvement (International Monetary Fund Search, 2020). However, Egypt gets up to 96% of its water from the Nile and sees the construction of the dam as a threat that will have an impact on the economy in Egypt. From Ethiopia's perspective, the dam creates opportunities for development and to make the country a middle-income country in the future. In addition, the dam can export electricity cheaply to other countries in the region, thus serving as a further driver for a growing economy in Ethiopia that could end its dependence on aid. With the construction of the dam, Ethiopia is also exercising its hitherto denied right to use its own resources, from which other countries such as Egypt have so far benefited more, even though Ethiopia contributes around 86% of the Nile's water volume. (Tawfik, 2016, pp. 5-7). As indicated by the high percentage of 86%, Ethiopia has a high availability of water, at the same time Ethiopia has one of the lowest rates of access to water, which will be significantly improved by the construction of the dam. (Melesse et al., 2014) .

4 Legal Framework

In order to understand the agreements on which Egypt relies in negotiations, the following agreements are explained to clarify the legal background, so that conclusions can be drawn for the present and the future.

4.1 Treaties

The first treaties dealing with the control around the Nile and the area around Lake Victoria were already written in the 19th century. The colonization of Egypt by Great Britain from 1882 to 1952 resulted in various treaties that were intended to secure Great Britain's sovereignty over the waters of the Nile (Gebreluel, 2014, p. 26). The following provides an overview of the most important treaties to be mentioned.

4.1.1 Treaty from 1891

In 1891, the United Kingdom, as the colonial ruler of Sudan, signed an agreement with Italy. This agreement stipulated that Italy would not build certain irrigation facilities if they could influence the outflow of the Sudanese city of Atbara into the Nile. With the end of the colonial rule of both colonial powers, the agreement also ended (Howell & Allan, 2012, pp. 323-324).

4.1.2 Treaty from 1902

In 1902, an agreement was signed between the United Kingdom and Ethiopia, in which the United Kingdom acted as colonial power for Egypt but also for Sudan. This agreement regulated the borders between Ethiopia and the adjacent border areas, which belonged to the British colonies. The agreement itself states, among other things :

“His Majesty the Emperor Menelik II, King of kings of Ethiopia, engages himself towards the Government of His Britannic Majesty not to construct or allow to be constructed, any works across the Blue Nile, Lake Tsana or the Sobat, which would arrest the flow of their waters into the Nile except in agreement with his Britannic Majesty's Government and the Government of the Sudan” (Ullendorff, 1967, p. 643).

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