International trade takes place every day, influential events affect trade transactions and Germany was considered the export world champion for a time. We want to know what is behind individual factors, why they are important and why exports do not only rely on high-performance products. We further want to find out whether there is a differential impact on exports between countries at different stages of development.
In order to keep within the scope of this work and to ensure the quantity of the statistical investigation, the years from 2015 to 2017 are taken up. The three years are considered together, and no annual differentiation is made. Since there are many indicators of exports, the aim of this work is to answer the following specific research question: How does the level of education, research intensity and productivity affect a country´s exports in the years 2015 to 2017?
To answer this question, we first look at our data description in Chapter 2. In this section, we define each variable used in the analysis and show its historical development. This is followed by our economic analysis in Chapter 3. First, our developed hypotheses are presented before our analysis is then taken up. The following chapter briefly reviews our hypotheses and evaluates the analysis. Finally, in Chapter 5, a conclusion is drawn with an answer to the research question and an outlook into the future
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Data description
2.1 Fundamentals
2.2 Exports of goods and services
2.2.1 Characteristics
2.2.2 Development of global exports
2.3 Level of education
2.3.1 Characteristics
2.3.2 Development of government expenditure on education
2.4 Research intensity
2.4.1 Characteristics
2.4.2 Development of R&D investments
2.5 Productivity
2.5.1 Characteristics
2.5.2 Development of productivity
3. Econometric analysis
3.1 Hypotheses
3.2 Analysis
3.2.1 Basics of correlation
3.2.2 Overall correlation table
3.2.3 Regression analysis of independent variables
3.2.4 Regression analysis of interdependencies
4. Critical review of the results
4.1 Discussion of results
4.2 Evaluation of the study
5. Conclusion
Research Objectives and Key Themes
The primary objective of this research is to perform a statistical analysis to determine how three specific independent variables—the level of education, research intensity, and labor productivity—influence the export performance of 72 different countries over the period from 2015 to 2017.
- Statistical modeling of factors influencing national exports.
- Comparative analysis across different stages of economic development (low, medium, and high).
- Examination of direct and indirect effects of R&D investments, educational expenditure, and labor productivity.
- Testing of five specific hypotheses regarding the relationship between economic indicators and export ratios.
- Evaluation of data quality and potential biases, such as Omitted Variable Bias (OVB), in econometric modeling.
Excerpt from the Book
2.2.2 Development of global exports
Barely anything illustrates globalization as clearly as the increasing economic importance of foreign trade. A large proportion of the goods produced worldwide are destined for export. The share of goods exports in the world's GDP was over 30 % in 2019. At the same time, the real export of goods has increased continuously (CAGR around 8 %) between 1948 and 2020 (Bpb 2020). The following figure shows the global development of exports (Statista 2020):
It should be noted that the exports shown in Figure 1 are exclusively goods exports. Exported services have also been growing in volume since the 1980s. In fact, the value of exported services has risen steadily since then to more than 5 trillion dollars in 2019. The increasing export volume is triggered by rising production productivity and the resulting surplus of goods, falling trade barriers, decreasing transport costs and global networking and digitalization (Ourworldindata 2018).
In order to examine the factors influencing exports between countries at different levels of development in our report, it is helpful to start by looking at the ratio of exports of the countries included in our research paper for the years 2015-2017. This is shown in Figure 2 (Own representation based on data from World Bank).
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Presents the global context of trade and defines the research question concerning how education, research, and productivity impact exports.
2. Data description: Defines the dataset of 72 countries, explains the classification of development stages based on GNI, and details the independent and dependent variables.
3. Econometric analysis: Details the testing of five hypotheses using correlation and multiple linear regression analysis to evaluate the influence of the selected variables on exports.
4. Critical review of the results: Assesses the findings, addresses the rejection or verification of hypotheses, and discusses limitations such as Omitted Variable Bias.
5. Conclusion: Summarizes the key findings, acknowledges the limitations regarding data availability, and suggests directions for future research.
Keywords
Exports, Globalization, Level of Education, Research Intensity, Labor Productivity, GNI per capita, Econometric Analysis, Regression Analysis, Correlation, Development Stages, R&D Investments, Statistical Significance, Economic Performance, Trade Indicators, Omitted Variable Bias.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary goal of this research paper?
The goal is to analyze how three specific factors—the level of education, research intensity, and productivity—statistically influence the export performance of a country between the years 2015 and 2017.
Which countries are included in the analysis?
The study includes 72 countries worldwide, selected based on the availability of reliable data from the World Bank and ILOSTAT databases for the defined period.
What research methodology is applied?
The authors use a quantitative approach involving correlation analysis and multiple linear regression to test five pre-formulated hypotheses about the causal links between the variables and export ratios.
How is the "level of education" measured?
The level of education is represented by the general government expenditure on educational institutions and services as a percentage of a country's GDP.
What are the main thematic Schwerpunkte of the study?
The study focuses on the impact of socio-economic indicators (education, R&D, productivity) on international trade, differentiated by country development stages.
Why are interaction variables included in the regression model?
Interaction variables are used to identify if the variables (education, R&D, productivity) have a strengthening or weakening effect on each other's influence on exports.
How does productivity affect exports according to the findings?
The results demonstrate a positive, highly significant influence of labor productivity on a country's export ratio across the studied dataset.
What is the "Omitted Variable Bias" mentioned in the evaluation?
The authors explain that because they restricted their model to only three variables, other relevant factors are missing, which potentially leads to an overestimation or underestimation of the effects of the included variables.
Are the findings consistent across all stages of development?
No, the findings reveal contradictory results, particularly regarding R&D investments, which show positive effects in mid-developed countries but negative effects in highly developed ones.
What conclusion does the author draw regarding the data quality?
The author concludes that the data basis is critical and suggests that future research requires higher quality and more diverse data to obtain more accurate answers to the research question.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Anonym (Autor:in), 2021, Influencing Factors on Exports. How does the Level of Eucation, Research Intensity and Productivity affect a Country's Exports in the Years 2015 to 2017?, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1044775
