The Political Economy of Uzbeskistan - Towards Economic Integration or Islamic Revolution?

1. Introduction

The Republic of Uzbekistan with its capital Tashkent is located in Central Asia, north of Afghanistan. It is the most populous country in the region with an estimated population of 26,410,416 and a growth rate of 1.65 % in July 2004.^[1] The official language is Uzbek and Russian and its currency is the Uzbekistani sum (UZS).^[2]

Since Uzbekistan turned away from Communism and became independent in 1991 the country gradually reforms its economy.

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Source: http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/caucasus_cntrl_asia_pol_00.jpg

The essay will give an overview about the country and its progresses and missteps to become an open market-based economy with democratic principles. Special emphasis will lie on the emerging role of the Islam and how this is affecting an integration of the country in the global economy.

Major problems we were facing in analyzing particularly the country’s economic and social situation were contradictory information from different sources.

2. An outline of Uzbekistan

2.1. Political and economic overview

2.1.1 Political structure

Since 1924 Uzbekistan was part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR)^[3] and gained sovereignty on august 31st 1991.^[4] With the adoption on the constitution Uzbekistan reached the status of a sovereign and democratic republic. On March 24th 1990 Soviet officials appointed Islam Karimov to be president of Uzbekistan. Due to a referendum proclaimed by Karimov in 2002, the president can be elected for a seven- year term by popular vote, but no more than two consecutive terms.^[5] The president appoints the prime minister and his ministers subject to the approval of supreme assembly (Oliy Majlis). The supreme assembly is a two- chamber parliament and it is elected for a five-year term^[6]. Within the country there are six officially recognized parties. The most important one is the People’s Democratic Party, which is the former Communist party. One has to point out that even though Uzbekistan holds the status of a democratic country it is still under a very authoritarian presidential rule. There is only little power outside the executive branch and so there is no real opposition within the country.^[7]

Since suspension of the Soviet Union Uzbekistan has joint a large number of international organizations and institutions. The most important ones are the International Monetary Fund (IMF), United Nations (UN) and European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The country also holds an observer status in the World Trade Organization (WTO). To have closer regional economic relationships with the Central Asian countries Uzbekistan joined the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in December 1991.^[8]

After the terror attacks of September 11th 2001 Uzbekistan became a partner in the anti-terror coalition. Especially the United States were interested in having Uzbekistan in the alliance due to their geo-strategic location to Afghanistan. This relationship opened up new opportunities for the country, because the USA invested in the emerging economy.^[9]

2.1.2 Economy

The country holds large natural resources such as natural gas, petroleum, coal, gold, uranium and silver. In 2003 the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was US $ 9.9 billion with a real growth rate of 4.4%. The GDP per capita was US $ 387. The composition by sectors (percentage of GDP) can be seen as follows: agriculture (35.2%), industry (21.7%) and services (43.1%).^[10] The country’s inflation rate in 2003 was estimated at 14.6%.^[11] Beside the country’s abundant natural resources Uzbekistan is also the world’s fifth –largest cotton producer and second –largest cotton exporter.

The most important export and import partners for the country are Russia and the other CIS countries. Additionally, outside the CIS, important export markets are the United Kingdom (UK), Switzerland, South Korea, Turkey and the Netherlands. Besides the CIS the United States of America (US), South Korea, Germany, France and the Republic of China are the most significant import partners.^[12] (see Appendix Figures I and II)

Due to various trade barriers such as restrictive currency exchange policies Uzbekistan failed to attract a significant amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). In 2000 the country received US $69 million in FDI, which contributed only 0.6% to the GDP.^[13] The most important investors are the US, South Korea, UK, Turkey, who invest mainly in mining and processing, tobacco and production of transport vehicles^[14].

2.2 Social and religious aspects

Its population shows a considerable ethnic diversity with a majority of 74% Uzbeks while further ethnic groups are Russians, Tajiks, Kazakhs or others such as Germans or Jews.^[15] (see Appendix Figure III)

Uzbekistan is one of the poorest countries in Central Asia with a poverty rate of 27.5%, and a life expectancy of under 70 years.^[16] Since independency minor ethnics groups, mainly Germans and Russians, emigrated to their homeland which resulted in a loss of many valuable technical, industrial and professional skills. But recent policies intend to enhance human capital. For example today’s young Uzbeks are able to receive a degree at American and European universities.^[17]

The majority of Uzbeks population are Muslims (88%) and the second largest group adheres the Eastern Orthodox (9%).^[18] Religious observance was strictly forbidden during the communist years and organizations had no property rights and they were prohibited to possess buildings or money.^[19] But creed became officially acknowledged in the Constitution which provides freedom of religion (Article § 31) and grants the separation of church and state (Article §61).^[20] However, it is important to mention that in order to worship each religious organization has to be registered. The government officials give permission for registration whereas acceptance is often denied especially for Islamic organizations.^[21] According to Human Rights Watch independent Muslims are extremely suppressed and suffer from persecution which aggravated after the terror attacks in September 2001. Torture remains widespread and Uzbekistan’s jurisdiction still sentences to death. “According to Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), press freedom is still non-existent despite, the lifting of official censorship in 2002.”^[22]

3. Uzbekistan – in the global economic structure

3.1. Foreign Trade

The break-up of the Soviet Union facilitated the diversification of foreign trade. Within the Soviet Union foreign trade was mainly concentrated among member states but less towards western economies and strictly under government’s control.^[23]

Since 1991 Uzbekistan progresses gradually towards trade liberalization. On the one hand the country is being re-orientated towards more distant foreign countries. But still the CIS states remain very important as export and import partners. In Europe Germany is Uzbekistan’s most significant business partner.^[24] (see Appendix Exhibit I)

It is important to mention that the Uzbek government still plays a very important role in foreign trade, especially in foreign exchange market. Resources like cotton, grain and gold are channelled through state commodity exchange.^[25]

Other export commodities are energy products, mineral fertilizers, ferrous metals, textiles, foods and automobiles^[26].

3.2 Foreign Direct Investments (FDI)

In the first years of independence, Uzbekistan encouraged foreign direct investment inflows as a result of reforming their existing foreign investment law. This law guarantees the foreign investors unrestricted repatriation of investments and profits as well as tax breaks.^[27]

Despite these incentives Uzbekistan has failed to attract a significant amount of FDIs not only since legislative processes and procedures are awkward and long- lasting.^[28] Consequently Uzbekistan has so far, out of all CIS, the lowest level of FDI per capita.^[29] (see Appendix Table I)

One has to take into account that there is a major difference between the registered FDI inflows measured by international organizations and the Uzbek government. This can be related to the broad definition of “foreign investment” adopted by the Uzbek authorities that also include foreign credits to state enterprises to finance investments which the international definition excludes. Thus the government accounts higher levels of FDI inflows.^[30] (see Appendix Exibit II)

Countries who invested the most within the last years in Uzbekistan were the United Kingdom, the United States, South Korea, Turkey and Germany.^[31] Their foreign direct investments have mainly been directed to manufacturing activities, like the automotive sector (e.g. Daewoo Corp.), in the mining sector (e.g. Newmont Mining) and tobacco sector (e.g. BAT).^[32] With the help of FDIs Uzbekistan can benefit by improving its competitiveness and promoting the transfer of technology and business skills.

3.3. Economic reforms

Since independency Uzbekistan’s challenge is to turn from a centrally planned into a market-based economy and establish a stable political environment. This challenge requires the implementation of several reforms.

3.3.1. Price Liberalization

One of the main challenges is to “force a move from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market,”^[33] which primarily requires to loosen price regulations.

In 1992 Uzbekistan liberalized most retail prices but kept control particularly over key consumer items such as bread or soap as well as over electricity or water. Even today price controls still exist.^[34] Most of these items are prized below recovery costs and therefore function as a market barrier for potential entrants in these industries. Furthermore innovations are inhibited and domestic as well as foreign investors are deterred

3.3.2. Enterprise Reform

Another major reform comprises the rehabilitation of state enterprises, their enforcement for financial discipline and most importantly the extensive privatization of state enterprises. Rough budget constraints and the elimination of various support mechanisms like subsidies or low-cost credits together with price liberalization should provide incentives for the enterprises to maximize profits. A change of the whole economy is conceivable as a reallocation of resources towards new activities is expected. Privatization and restructuring primarily involved the creation of joint stock companies, management or employee takeover or leasing arrangements.^[35]

Since 1991 especially large-scale privatization follows a very gradual approach compared to other CIS economies and the state still highly influences the business environment. For instance if the state holds 1% or more shares in a company no vote can be accepted unless a state’s representative is present.^[36]

3.3.3. Trade

Trade and foreign exchange restrictions are pronounced to shelter non-competitive industries from market forces and as a result a misallocation of resources is encouraged.^[37]

A step towards economic growth is that restrictive trade practices such as registration and payment requirements for imports as well as high average import tariffs need to loosen. Whereas tariff rates have often been reduced, non-tariff trade obstacles are maintained. The recent established trade barrier is the closure of the borders to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic.^[38]

Furthermore exchange controls were tight until external pressure from organizations like IMF increased so that full currency convertibility was finally introduced on October 15th 2003.^[39]

Yet some restrictions on access to foreign exchange still distort competition and external trade.^[40]

Despite a gradual movements towards market-based principles economic growth is far beyond potential, imports remain at a low level and international investors are suspending or cutting credits due to extremely restrictive trade policies, slow enterprise reforms and a state controlled price system.^[41]

4. Uzbekistan: Towards economic integration or Islamic revolution?

The BBC claims Uzbekistan “is seen as the most authoritarian country in the region, with no real opposition inside the country, a restrained media and a tightly controlled economy”^[42].

Is Uzbekistan able to intensify its economic integration towards a market-based system or does it provide a prosperous environment for Islamic fundamentalism?

Uzbekistan reveals potentials as well as obstacles towards economic integration. The main advantage are the country’s abundant resources. These include natural resources like gold, oil and gas and favorable conditions for agriculture. Moreover human resources rapidly grow due to a high share of young inhabitants^[43] and an improving educational standard contributes to a long term growth in productivity.

The membership in several international organizations and its favorable geographical location in the heart of Central Asia grants the country attention in the world economy. Another potential are the implemented reforms that liberalized domestic and external trade, promotes the international standing of Uzbekistan and paved the way towards an independent market-based democracy.

But this democracy is distorted since opposition parties are suppressed, media freedom can not be granted and the violation of human rights is omnipresent. Police forces use torture as a common investigation technique and several died of abuse and inhuman conditions in Uzbek prisons. Main target groups of repression are those the government suspects of Islamic extremism.^[44]

Furthermore government interventions especially in banks and in the agricultural sector create significant market entry barriers like price controls which extremely hinders a fast economic integration. Additionally, implemented reforms are not yet sufficient and trading barriers and a low degree of privatization still exist.

All in all, these obstacles have the recent effect that international investors, such as the US, Germany and the EBRD have suspended most of its financial aid to the government or redirected it to non-governmental organizations.^[45] These decisions might result in a further slow down of the economic development and reforms.

Consequently the population becomes increasingly disappointed and dissatisfied which makes them more susceptible for Islamic ideologies.^[46] Extremist’s thoughts are supported particularly in rural areas where poverty rate is high and traditional values are important. Therefore Islamic organizations that want to replace the secular state through a caliphate are highly influential.^[47] To fight these fundamentalist movement the government reacts with a so-called religion police who observe the execution of the Religion act from 1998. This law comprises the punishment of public expressions of belief like women wearing a veil or men showing a beard.^[48] Despite suppressing fundamentalism these restrictions developed an enlarged movement that came up with operations like bomb attacks in 1999 and in March 2004.^[49]

As Uzbeks seem to head towards an Islamic revolution the government does nothing but to promote this development. Not just the slow-paced reforms and restrictive policies but also the recent closure of the borders to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic^[50] add fuel to this Islamic uproar. Both countries show better economic performance as well as more liberalized political and social structures whereas the countries in the south Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan provide fertile soil for fundamentalism. These are the countries with which Uzbekistan still shares open borders.

In conclusion one can say that Uzbekistan is stuck in a vicious circle. There is a close interaction between economic integration and Islamic revolution. Due to poor economic conditions people tend to recall religious values. If this is reflected in a more extreme movement and government officials continue to violate human rights just to pursue a suppression of fundamentalism, domestic as well as foreign investors hesitate and deduct business from Uzbekistan. Thus, without investments, an economic integration towards a western and market-oriented system is hardly possible.

5. Conclusion

Today Uzbekistan is considered as one of the least reformed of all former centrally planned economies. The EBRD sets up transition indices in which Uzbekistan is ranked as among the least liberalized economies. ^[51] Since independency in 1991 president Islam Karimov has followed a gradual and insufficient approach to reform the country and has failed to establish a stable market economy with democratic principles. Just in the last two years investors, like USA and Germany, have partly withdrawn its financial support. Economic performance remains poor and Islamic extremism is rapidly growing.

An improvement of the situation can only be achieved by a drastic political reorganization. Most importantly, to allow opposition parties to take part in the upcoming parliamentary election in December 2004. ^[52] Apart from draconic reforms this would be the most essential steps in becoming a democracy acknowledged by the Uzbek citizens as well as by the rest of the world. This acceptance would create a higher satisfaction among the Uzbek people and thus might reduce the risk of an Islamic revolution. At least Uzbekistan would achieve a better position as a partner in the global economy.

6. List of References

Books

Andrea Strasser, Siegfried Haas, Gerhard Mangott, Valeria Heuberger: Zentralasien und Islam/Central Asia and Islam, Deutsches Orient-Institut Hamburg, 2002

Reza Rahimi, Business Entry Strategy for Central Asia, Difo-Druck OHG, Bamberg 2000

Emine Gürgen, Harry Snoek, Jon Craig, Jimmy McHugh, Ivailo Izvorskian, Ron van Roden, Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan , Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, IMF 1999, Washington DC

Der Fischer Weltalmanach 2003, Fischer Taschenbuchverlag, 2003

Magazines and Newspapers

GEO Magazin 01/2003: Zentralasien: Im Kessel des Propheten, Walter Saller

GEO Magazin 01/2003: Asiens vergessenes Herzland, Jens Schröder

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 28.Juni 2004, Nr. 147, S.12 Die Bevölkerung verliert allmählich die Geduld- Repression statt Reform/Ökonomischer Stillstand im einstigen Hoffnungsträger Zentralasiens, M. Wehner

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 24.07.2004, Nr.170/Seite 3: Unter verblühtem Reichtum gedeiht der Islamismus, M. Wehner

The Economist, Edition July 17th 2004 An Embarrassing Friend

The Economist, Edition March 27th 2004, The verdict

Internet sources

US State Department

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2924.htm#econ

Access on 10-29-2004

The Analyst

http://www.cornellcaspian.com/analyst/010926_H1.htm

Access on 10-26-2004

Human Rights Watch

http://hrw.org/english/docs/2004/10/20/uzbeki9548.htm

Access on 10-29-2004

Worldbank

http://rru.worldbank.org/documents/paperslinks/1255.pdf

Access on 10-19-2004

PriceWaterhouseCoopers

http://www.pwc.com/cs/eng/ins-sol/publ/pwc_uz_businessguide.pdf

Access on 10-28-2004

European Bank of Reconstruction and Development

http://www.ebrd.com/pubs/index.htm

http://www.ebrd.com/about/strategy/country/uzbe/strategy.pdf

Access on 10-19-2004

BBC

http://www.uzland.uz/fact/profile.htm

Access on 10-29-2004

UNCTAD

http://www.unctad.org/en/docs//poiteiipm13.en.pdf

Access on 10-19-2004

Auswärtiges Amt

http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/www/en/laenderinfos/laender/laender_

ausgabe_html?typ_id=12&land_id=183

Access on 10-28-2004

Central Intelligence Agency

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/goes/uz.html

Access on 10-26-2004

Amerikanische Repräsentanz in Usbekistan

http://www.usembassy.uz/home/index.aspx?&=&mid=401&overview=982

Access on 10-19-2004

The Wall Street Journal

http://cf.heritage.org/index2004test/country2.cfm?id=Uzbekistan

Access on 10-26-2004

Others

Statistisches Bundesamt

7. Appendix

Figure I

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Figure II

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Figure III

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Exhibit I

Bilateral trade with Germany

Germany is an important trading partner for Uzbekistan. Even though bilateral trade shrunk in 2003 to € 225 Mio (€ 34 Mio imports and € 191 Mio exports). 2/3 of the import commodities to Germany is cotton. Germany, on the other hand, exports machinery and equipment.

One has to recognize that there are currently 137 Joint Ventures in Uzbekistan with German share. 20 of these co-operations have a share of capital with 1Mio. to 25 Mio. USD. Furthermore, 70 German companies have established branches in the country among them are DaimlerChrysler, BASF, Siemens and Aventis.

Nevertheless, there have been no new foreign direct investments made by Germany, except from coal mining (ThyssenKrupp Fördertechnik) in 2003. This can be seen as a result due to absence of economic reforms and risks of further governmental intervention^[53].

Table I

TOTAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (mln US $)

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Source: http://www.ecosecretariat.org/Statistics/Stat_02_12.htm

Exhibit II

The definition of FDI inflows differ between those of international organizations and governmental data. In 1996 the government announced an FDI inflow of 830 million US $ whereas figures of IMF and EBRD counted only 50 million US $ of FDI inflows. This a prove for Uzbek government setting itself in a favorable light.

[...]

---

^[1] http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/goes/uz.html

^[2] http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/goes/uz.html

^[3] http://www.pwc.com/cs/eng/ins-sol/publ/pwc_uz_businessguide.pdf

^[4] Cf.: Der Fischer Weltalmanach 2003, Fischer Taschenbuchverlag, 2003, p.825

^[5] http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/goes/uz.html

^[6] http://www.pwc.com/cs/eng/ins-sd/publ/pwc_uz_businessguide.pdf

^[7] http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/goes/uz.html

^[8] Cf: Reza Rahimi, Business Entry Strategy for Central Asia, Difo-Druck OHG, Bamberg 2000, p.37

^[9] http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/www/en/laenderinfos/laender/laender_ausgabe_html?type_

id=12&land_id=183

^[10] Statistisches Bundesamt

^[11] http://www.pwc.com/cs/eng/ins-sd/publ/pwc_uz_businessguide.pdf

^[12] Cf: Der Fischer Weltalmanach 2003, Fischer Taschenbuchverlag, 2003, p.825

^[13] http://www.pwc.com/cs/eng/ins-sd/publ/pwc_uz_businessguide.pdf

^[14] http://www.pwc.com/cs/eng/ins-sd/publ/pwc_uz_businessguide.pdf

^[15] http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/goes/uz.html

^[16] http://www.ebrd.com/about/strategy/country/uzbe/strategy.pdf

^[17] http://www.pwc.com/cs/eng/ins-sol/publ/pwc_uz_businessguide.pdf

^[18] http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/goes/uz.html

^[19] Cf.: Andrea Strasser, Siegfried Haas, Gerhard Mangott, Valeria Heuberger: Zentralasien und

Islam/Central Asia and Islam, Deutsches Orient-Institut Hamburg, 2002, p.69

^[20] Cf.: Andrea Strasser, Siegfried Haas, Gerhard Mangott, Valeria Heuberger: Zentralasien und

Islam/Central Asia and Islam, Deutsches Orient-Institut Hamburg, p.190

^[21] http://www.usembassy.uz/home/index.aspx?&=&mid=401&overview=982

^[22] The Economist, Edition March 27th 2004, The verdict

^[23] Cf.: Emine Gürgen, Harry Snoek, Jon Craig, Jimmy McHugh, Ivailo Izvorskian, Ron van Roden:

Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan , Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,

IMF 1999, Washington DC, p.35

^[24] http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/www/en/laenderinfos/laender/laender_ausgabe_html?typ_

id=12&land_id=183

^[25] Cf.: Emine Gürgen, Harry Snoek, Jon Craig, Jimmy McHugh, Ivailo Izvorski, Ron van Roden:

Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan , Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,

IMF 1999, Washington DC, p.38

^[26] http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/goes/uz.html

^[27] Cf.: Emine Gürgen, Harry Snoek, Jon Craig, Jimmy McHugh, Ivailo Izvorskian, Ron van Roden:

Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan , Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,

IMF 1999, Washington DC, p.29

^[28] http://cf.heritage.org/index2004test/country2cfm?id=Uzbekistan

^[29] http://cf.heritage.org/index2004test/country2cfm?id=Uzbekistan

^[30] http://www.unctad.org/en/docs//poiteiipm13.en.pdf

^[31] http://www.pwc.com/cs/eng/ins-sd/publ/pwc_uz_businessguide.pdf

^[32] http://www.pwc.com/cs/eng/ins-sd/publ/pwc_uz_businessguide.pdf

^[33] Cf.: Emine Gürgen, Harry Snoek, Jon Craig, Jimmy McHugh, Ivailo Izvorskian, Ron van Roden:

Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan , Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,

IMF 1999, Washington DC , p.57

^[34] Cf.: Emine Gürgen, Harry Snoek, Jon Craig, Jimmy McHugh, Ivailo Izvorskian, Ron van Roden:

Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan , Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,

IMF 1999, Washington DC, p.57

^[35] Cf.: Emine Gürgen, Harry Snoek, Jon Craig, Jimmy McHugh, Ivailo Izvorskian, Ron van Roden,

Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan , Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,

IMF 1999, Washington DC, p.58f

^[36] Cf.: Emine Gürgen, Harry Snoek, Jon Craig, Jimmy McHugh, Ivailo Izvorskian, Ron van Roden,

Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan , Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,

IMF 1999, Washington DC, p.60

^[37] http://rru.worldbank.org/documents/paperslinks/1255.pdf

^[38] http://www.state .gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2924.htm#econ

^[39] http://www.pwc.com/cs/eng/ins-sol/publ/pwc_uz_businessguide.pdf

^[40] http://www.ebrd.com/pubs/index.htm

^[41] http://www.state .gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2924.htm#econ

^[42] http://www.uzland.uz/fact/profile.htm

^[43] Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: Unter verblühtem Reichtum gedeiht der Islamismus, M. Wehner

24.07.2004, Nr.170/Seite 3: 60% of Uzbeks are under 25 years old and 40% under the age of
18.

^[44] http://www.state .gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2924.htm#econ

^[45] The Economist, Edition July 17th 2004 An Embarrassing Friend p.49

^[46] GEO 01/2003 Asiens vergessenes Herzland, Jens Schröder p.30

^[47] Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 28.Juni 2004, Nr. 147, S.12 Die Bevölkerung verliert allmählich

die Geduld- Repression statt Reform/Ökonomischer Stillstand im einstigen Hoffnungsträger

Zentralasiens, M. Wehner

^[48] GEO Magazin 01/2003: Zentralasien: Im Kessel des Propheten, Walter Saller, p. 31

^[49] Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 28.Juni 2004, Nr. 147, S.12 Die Bevölkerung verliert allmählich

die Geduld- Repression statt Reform/Ökonomischer Stillstand im einstigen Hoffnungsträger

Zentralasiens, M. Wehner

^[50] http://www.state .gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2924.htm#econ

^[51] http://www.cornellcaspian.com/analyst/010926_H1.htm

^[52] http://hrw.org/english/docs/2004/10/20/uzbeki9548.htm

^[53] http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/www/en/laenderinfos/laender/laender_ausgabe_html?type_ id=12&land_id=18