A sustainable energy regime, especially for developing countries such as Ivory Coast, is a wise choice. It can mobilize renewable energy resources, modernize energy system, allow for energy savings, safeguard the equilibrium of local ecosystems, contribute to poverty alleviation and, therefore, constitutes a significant aid towards universal access to modern energy services.
This current research investigates the conditions needed to achieve a sustainable energy regime by the next decade (2030) in Ivory Coast, West Africa. To identify these conditions, first, a forecast model using a hybrid method, support vector regression (SVR) and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was employed to predict energy consumption by 2030. Second, a back-casting approach to assessing alternative energy scenarios was carried out. Third, a national energy action plan (NEAP) was designed with the help of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and a technique known as the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
The results show that, by 2030, conventional fuels should be dominant in the transport and industrial sectors, while traditional forms of energy should prevail over others in the residential one. Besides, the green scenario that accumulates universal energy access, energy efficiency, and renewable energies dissemination targets are the most sustainable. Moreover, social criterion and solar energy were found the most critical factor and the most preferred renewable energy, respectively, when considering a sustainable energy path.
Based on those findings, it was recognized that a definite shift in energy policy maximizing the use of clean types of energy was required to reach a sustainable energy regime. In this perspective, policy recommendations, in addition to the national energy action plan, were provided to guide the Ivorian decision-makers.
Table of Contents
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION
1.1 General introduction
1.2 Theoretical frameworks
1.3 Research objectives and findings
1.4 Research and conceptual frameworks
1.5 Originality and significance of the study
CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Energy demand forecast
2.2 Multi-criteria decision analysis
2.3 Renewable energy consumption and sustainable development strategies
2.4 Comparison with other studies
2.5 Summary of the chapter
CHAPTER III: OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN IVORY COAST
3.1 Organization of the Ivorian energy sector
3.2 Energy resources, supply, and demand
3.3 Power sector and energy access
3.4 Economy and demographic trend
3.5 Summary of the chapter
CHAPTER IV: FORECAST MODEL RESULTS
4.1 Forecast methodological approach
4.2 Data description
4.3 Forecast model’s results
4.4 Summary of the chapter
CHAPTER V: BACK-CASTING APPROACH RESULTS
5.1 Back-casting approach
5.2 Data description
5.3 Back-casting approach results
5.4 Summary of the chapter
CHAPTER VI: DESIGN OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY ACTION PLAN
6.1 AHP model
6.2 Data description
6.3 National energy action plan
6.4 Summary of the chapter
CHAPTER VII: CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 General conclusion
7.2 Policy recommendations
7.3 Final Discussion
7.4 Research limitations
Research Objectives and Themes
This study aims to determine the conditions necessary for achieving a sustainable energy path in Ivory Coast by 2030, addressing the nation's energy inefficiencies and reliance on conventional, carbon-based fuels to foster inclusive economic and social development.
- Energy demand forecasting using a hybrid PSOSVR-ARIMA model.
- Assessment of alternative energy scenarios via back-casting techniques.
- Design of a national energy action plan using multi-criteria decision analysis (Fuzzy AHP).
- Analysis of the relationship between renewable energy deployment and socioeconomic welfare.
- Evaluation of climate change mitigation strategies in the Ivorian energy sector.
Excerpt from the Book
1.2.1 SUSTAINABILITY AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Sustainability and sustainable development had several definitions throughout these three last decades. The well-known definition and the most cited one is that of the Brundtland Report [7] which is the following:
Sustainable development is a development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. This definition stresses the time framework of sustainability, implicitly stating that sustainability should be measured in the long-term. There is also a requirement for equitable development between generations. However, this definition suffers a significant drawback. As discussed by Diesendorf and Andrew, the Bruntland Report emphasizes human needs and fails to mention any requirements concerning natural environments. Though we, human beings, are entirely dependent for our survival on the proper functioning of natural systems. In other words, anything that jeopardizes natural systems’ existence will automatically threaten sustainability, as human beings will be directly affected.
Other definitions that came after the Brundtland Report added ecological considerations. For instance, the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources [8]defined sustainable development as ‘‘improving the quality of human life while living within the carrying capacity of supporting ecosystems.’’ In the same perspective, Altwegg et al. [9] defined sustainable development as the ‘‘means ensuring dignified living conditions concerning human rights by creating and maintaining the largest possible range of options for freely defining life plans.’’ These definitions, compared to the Brundtland Report, give explicit provisions for environmental protection. In other words, the stability and the equilibrium of biodiversity and the whole ecosystem is a concern. Another similar definition includes that of Costanza and Patten for who a sustainable system is one that survives and persists [10].
Summary of Chapters
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION: This chapter provides the background, objectives, and significance of the study, emphasizing the need for a sustainable energy path in Ivory Coast to combat poverty and ecological degradation.
CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW: The literature review examines methods for energy demand forecasting, multi-criteria decision analysis techniques, and the socioeconomic impacts of renewable energy.
CHAPTER III: OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN IVORY COAST: This chapter details the institutional framework, stakeholders, energy resources, and the supply-demand dynamics currently present in the Ivorian energy sector.
CHAPTER IV: FORECAST MODEL RESULTS: This chapter presents the hybrid PSOSVR-ARIMA modeling approach and its results for predicting primary and sectoral energy demand up to 2030.
CHAPTER V: BACK-CASTING APPROACH RESULTS: This chapter uses the LEAP model to simulate different energy scenarios and pinpoint the most sustainable development path for the country.
CHAPTER VI: DESIGN OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY ACTION PLAN: This chapter details the use of the Fuzzy AHP methodology to rank renewable energy projects based on expert inputs regarding technical, economic, social, and environmental criteria.
CHAPTER VII: CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS: The final chapter summarizes the research findings, offers policy recommendations for policymakers, and acknowledges research limitations.
Keywords
energy demand, energy forecast, sustainable energy, energy planning, Ivory Coast, renewable energy, hybrid model, PSOSVR, ARIMA, back-casting, LEAP, multi-criteria decision analysis, Fuzzy AHP, socioeconomic impact, sustainable development
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fundamental goal of this research?
The research aims to identify the conditions required to establish a sustainable energy path for Ivory Coast by 2030, moving beyond current inefficiencies and reliance on conventional fuel sources.
What are the primary thematic areas explored in the thesis?
The study centers on energy demand forecasting, scenario building for energy transition (back-casting), and the prioritization of renewable energy projects using expert-based decision analysis.
What is the core research question?
The central question asks what specific conditions must be fulfilled to achieve a sustainable energy path for Ivory Coast by the next decade, ensuring economic, environmental, and social advancement.
Which scientific methodologies are employed?
The research utilizes a hybrid PSOSVR-ARIMA model for forecasting, the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system for scenario building, and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for decision making.
What topics are covered in the main body?
The main body covers the current energy sector overview in Ivory Coast, the detailed forecast model results, the evaluation of back-casting energy scenarios, and the design of a national energy action plan based on expert criteria.
What key terms define this work?
Key terms include energy demand, sustainable energy, Ivory Coast, hybrid forecasting models (PSOSVR-ARIMA), back-casting, and multi-criteria decision analysis (Fuzzy AHP).
Why is the "Green Scenario" considered the most sustainable?
The green scenario is deemed most sustainable because it maximizes energy savings, promotes significant renewable energy penetration, and ensures the lowest carbon emission levels compared to other pathways.
How does this study contribute to Ivorian policy?
The study provides a detailed roadmap, the "National Energy Action Plan," which helps decision-makers rank potential renewable energy projects based on technical, economic, social, and environmental factors.
- Citar trabajo
- Yessoh Gaudens Thecle Edjoukou (Autor), 2020, Renewable Energy Consumption and Sustainable Development Strategies in Ivory Coast (West Africa), Múnich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1119900
