This thesis investigates the effect of ideology on the survival times of 557 terrorist organisations. While there is broad acceptance of the view that the majority of terrorist organisations are short-lived, quantitative studies of the life spans of terrorist organisations are rare. Terrorist organisations go to great lengths to ensure their survival, with many terrorist organisations viewing their continued existence as a victory in itself. Within the broader field of organisational analysis, an organisation’s age is viewed as a key variable in explaining the development of its structures, functions, and, most importantly, its likelihood of continued survival. The ideology through which a terrorist organisation views the world is thought by many scholars of terrorism to play an important role in its justification for violence, its strategic intentions, the targets it selects, and its survival prospects. While many typologies of terrorist ideologies have been proposed, one of the most common approaches uses four broad categories of ideological orientation: Separatist/nationalist, left-wing, religious, and right-wing. Separatist/nationalist organisations are widely believed to have much greater longevity than organisations that lack a distinct, territorially bounded, ethno-nationalist base. The non-parametric and semi-parametric statistical analyses of the life spans of 557 terrorist groups presented in this thesis are complemented by a description of various stage-based life cycle models. The concept of an organisational life cycle is used to highlight and explain some of the frequently observed patterns and behaviours of terrorist organisations as they form, grow, peak, fragment, and fail. This provides the contextual background to the quantitative analysis. This thesis emphasises a longitudinal approach to understanding terrorist organisations.
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 The Organisational Life Cycle
2.2 The Organisational Life Span
3. TERRORISM THROUGH AN OPEN SYSTEMS FRAMEWORK
3.1 The Organisation as a Machine
3.2 The Organisation as an Organism
3.3 General Systems Theory: Organisations as Open Systems
3.4 Terrorist Organisations as Open Systems
3.5 Open Systems and Organisational Longevity
4. TERRORISM AS AN EXTENSION OF POLITICS
4.1 Terrorist Organisations as Specialised Political Parties
4.2 An Ideological Taxonomy of Terrorist Organisations
4.2.1 Separatist/nationalist Terrorist Organisations
4.2.2 Left-wing Terrorist Organisations
4.2.3 Religious Terrorist Organisations
4.2.4 Right-wing Terrorist Organisations
4.3 A Structural Taxonomy of Terrorist Organisations
4.3.1 Hierarchical Terrorist Organisations
4.3.2 Flattening the Hierarchy: Terrorist Networks
4.3.3 Hybrids: The Real World of Organisational Structures
5. THE LIFE CYCLES OF TERRORIST ORGANISATIONS
5.1 Organisational Life Cycles and the Biological Metaphor
5.2 Empirical Evidence for Organisational Life Cycles
5.3 A Generic Five-Stage Model of an Organisational Life Cycle
5.3.1 Start-up
5.3.2 Growth
5.3.3 Consolidation
5.3.4 Diversification
5.3.5 Decline
5.4 Life Cycle Models of Terrorist Organisations
5.4.1 Formation
5.4.2 Growth
5.4.3 Adapting
5.4.4 Decline
5.5 Hawks and Doves: An Abridged Life Cycle Model
5.6 Organisational Size
5.6.1 Organisational Size and Growth
5.6.2 Separating the Effects of Organisational Age and Size
5.6.3 Size and Growth in Terrorist Organisations
5.7 Connecting Qualitative Life Cycles to Quantitative Life Spans
6. MEASURING THE LIFE SPANS OF TERRORIST ORGANISATIONS
6.1 Methods for Survival Analysis
6.1.1 The Survival Function
6.1.2 The Hazard Function
6.2 Research Design
6.3 Non-parametric Analysis of Survival: The Kaplan-Meier Estimate
6.4 Semi-Parametric Analysis: Proportional Hazards Regression
6.5 Model Fitting Using Cox Regression
6.5.1 Cox-Snell Residual Analysis
6.5.2 Score Residuals
6.5.3 Deviance Residuals
6.5.4 Schoenfeld Residuals
6.6 Data Limitations
7. FUTURE RESEARCH
8. CONCLUSION
Research Objectives and Core Themes
This thesis investigates the effect of ideological orientation on the survival times of 557 terrorist organisations, seeking to understand whether patterns of organisational longevity exist and how they are influenced by internal and external factors.
- Quantitative analysis of terrorist organisational life spans using statistical survival methods.
- Examination of organisational life cycle models applied to clandestine groups.
- Impact of ideological categorization on survival prospects.
- Structural differences between hierarchical and networked terrorist organizations.
- Application of open systems theory to the study of political violence.
Excerpt from the Book
3.1 The Organisation as a Machine
Early organisational theorists drew heavily on the analogy of the organisation as a machine. This view was prominent in Taylor’s (1911) pioneering research on scientific management. The mechanistic view of organisational behaviour is entwined with bureaucracy and hierarchy. It was rapidly adopted by an increasingly industrial workplace, one where workers were seen as little more than cogs in a giant machine. By working in unison, the organisation’s goals could be reached with maximum efficiency. Taylor’s focus was on task and structure. There was little emphasis on the environment with which the organisation interacted, nor was much thought given to the human ‘cogs’ that ran the organisation. The focus on task and structure reflects the typical closed system view of an organisation. A closed system is one that is totally insulated from its environment. Although it is unrealistic to claim that any organisation is an entirely closed system, Jackson (1991) pointed out that the most influential organisational theories of the first half of the 20th Century disregarded the relationship between an organisation and its environment in favour of the pursuit of internal operational efficiency and control.
Summary of Chapters
1. INTRODUCTION: Provides an overview of the challenges in defining and measuring terrorist organisations and outlines the thesis’s longitudinal, systems-based approach.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW: Examines theoretical models of organisational life cycles and life spans, highlighting the application of business and biological metaphors to terrorist groups.
3. TERRORISM THROUGH AN OPEN SYSTEMS FRAMEWORK: Explores the conceptualization of terrorist groups as open systems that interact with their environment to survive and adapt.
4. TERRORISM AS AN EXTENSION OF POLITICS: Analyzes the structural and ideological taxonomies that differentiate terrorist groups, focusing on hierarchies, networks, and political motivations.
5. THE LIFE CYCLES OF TERRORIST ORGANISATIONS: Details a generic life cycle model for terrorist groups, from formation to growth, adaptation, and decline, incorporating empirical observations.
6. MEASURING THE LIFE SPANS OF TERRORIST ORGANISATIONS: Applies non-parametric and semi-parametric statistical survival analysis, specifically the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression, to data on 557 organisations.
7. FUTURE RESEARCH: Suggests improvements for future studies, including the use of non-overlapping ideological categories and advanced parametric survival models.
8. CONCLUSION: Summarizes the key findings, confirming the significant association between ideology and organizational survival and noting the data limitations inherent in the study.
Keywords
Terrorism, Organisational Life Cycle, Survival Analysis, Kaplan-Meier, Cox Regression, Ideology, Organizational Longevity, Separatist, Left-wing, Religious, Right-wing, Open Systems Theory, Factionalism, Hierarchical Structure, Networked Organizations
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fundamental focus of this research?
The thesis focuses on a longitudinal, quantitative analysis of 557 terrorist organisations to understand how ideological factors influence their lifespan and survival prospects.
What are the central thematic areas covered in the book?
The central themes include organizational life cycle theory, open systems frameworks, the taxonomy of terrorist ideologies, and structural differences in organizational forms like hierarchies versus networks.
What is the primary research question being addressed?
The study primarily investigates whether there is a significant association between a terrorist organisation’s ideological orientation and its longevity (survival time).
Which scientific methodologies are employed?
The author uses non-parametric survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier estimates) and semi-parametric statistical modeling (Cox proportional hazards regression) to evaluate archival data.
What topics are discussed in the main chapters?
The main chapters discuss systems theory, the political and ideological characteristics of terrorist groups, life cycle models of growth and decline, and detailed statistical methodologies for assessing organizational mortality.
Which keywords define this work?
The work is defined by terms such as organizational longevity, survival analysis, terrorist life cycles, ideology, hierarchy, network, and statistical regression.
How does the author view the organization of terrorist groups?
The author evaluates organizations along a spectrum ranging from rigid, centrally-controlled hierarchies to fluid, decentralized networks, often noting that many real-world groups act as hybrids.
What does the empirical data reveal about the longevity of different ideological groups?
The data suggests that separatist/nationalist terrorist organisations tend to be more durable and have significantly lower failure rates compared to other categories, such as religious or left-wing groups.
- Citar trabajo
- Tony Wragg (Autor), 2008, An Analysis of the Effect of Ideology on the Life Expectancy of Terrorist Organisations, Múnich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/116242
