Against the backdrop of autocratic opportunism and illiberal behavior during Covid-19, there is a large debate in the field of populism and democracy research about whether populist parties and leaders are strengthened or weakened by the Covid-19 crisis. However, due to the newness of the current crisis, the justification for one side or the other is based more on theoretical assumptions than on reliable empirical research, while the existing empirical studies refer exclusively to the first wave of the pandemic. These examinations often imply that populists tend to benefit from the crisis, since their approval rates either slightly increased during the first wave or remained on the same level. However, as the second and third waves unfold in autumn 2020 and winter/spring 2021, a new picture emerges. Right-wing populist governments in Europe on average appear to be losing public support, although this is not the case in non-populist-governed EU member states. This phenomenon seems puzzling, since it would be more likely to expect that populist governments would gain public support through the crisis. This conclusion not only derives from the “hour of the executive”, but also to the observation that societies in times of crisis attribute a stronger leadership role to their government and express more allegiance than in ordinary times – a finding also known as the "rally-round-the-flag" effect. This would help right-wing populists to present themselves as strong and decisive crisis leaders, which could strengthen their power and popularity as authoritarian leaders. Against this background, the argument is made that the illiberal behavior of right-wing populists, such as authoritarian leadership, corruption, and discriminatory measures, which is assumed constitutive of their behavior, leads to a decline in public support under the conditions of acute threat. Since the relationship between illiberal behavior by right-wing populist governments during Covid-19 and public support has not been systematically investigated yet, this thesis aims to take a first step in this direction by taking a more nuanced view to gain new empirical knowledge regarding why, when, and how a loss of public support for right-wing populist governments can be observed during the first, second, and third wave of the pandemic. The results support the hypothesis while alternative explanations such as containment measures or the economic situation tend to be less relevant.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1 Background: The Covid-19 Pandemic Interrupts the World
1.2 The Puzzle and Research Question
1.3 Structure of this Work
2. Theoretical Background
2.1 Public Support for Governing Parties During Covid-19
2.1.1 A Decline for Right-Wing Governing Parties
2.1.2 Current Explanations for the Trends in Public Support during Covid-19
2.2 Right-Wing Populism and Illiberal Democracy
2.2.1 Populism: A Contested Concept
2.2.2 Right-Wing Populism
2.2.3 Populism and Democracy
2.3 Public Support for Governments under the Condition of Acute Threat
2.3.1 Public Support: Concepts and Determinants
2.3.2 Public Support under Acute Threat and the Covid-19 Pandemic
2.4 Argument and Expectations
2.4.1 General Assumptions
2.4.2 Expected Behavior of Right-Wing Populist Governments during Covid-19
3. Research Design
3.1 Qualitative Case Studies & Process Tracing
3.2 Case Selection
3.3 Material Selection
4. Illiberal Behavior & Public Support before Covid-19
4.1 Czech Republic
4.1.1 The Movement of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO)
4.1.2 Authoritarian Leadership
4.1.3 Corruption
4.1.4 Discriminatory Measures
4.1.5 Trends in Public Support
4.2 Poland
4.2.1 The Law and Justice Party (PiS)
4.2.2 Authoritarian Leadership
4.2.3 Corruption
4.2.4 Discriminatory Measures
4.2.5 Trends in Public Support
5. The Covid-19 Pandemic in Czech Republic and Poland
5.1 General Patterns
5.2 State Measures: Czech Republic
5.2.1 Containment Measures
5.2.2 Economic Measures
5.3 State Measures Poland
5.3.1 Containment Measures
5.3.2 Economic Measures
6. Illiberal Behavior & Public Support during Covid-19
6.1 Illiberal Government Behavior: Czech Republic
6.1.1 Authoritarian Leadership
6.1.2 Corruption
6.1.3 Discriminatory Measures
6.2 Changes in Public Support: Czech Republic
6.2.1 General Trends
6.2.2 Causal Relations
6.3 Illiberal Government Behavior: Poland
6.3.1 Authoritarian Leadership
6.3.2 Corruption
6.3.3 Discriminatory Measures
6.4 Changes in Public Support: Poland
6.4.1 General Trends
6.4.2 Causal Relations
7. Results and Discussion
7.1 Results
7.2 Alternative Explanations
7.2.1 Pandemic Containment Measures and Infection Rates
7.2.2 Economic Development and Context Related Events
7.3 Limitations
8. Conclusion
9. Bibliography
Research Objectives and Themes
This thesis investigates the reasons for the decline in public support for right-wing populist governments in Central and Eastern Europe during the Covid-19 pandemic. The central research question explores why, despite expectations of a "rally-round-the-flag" effect, support for these governments has decreased. It examines whether this decline can be linked to the "illiberal behavior" of these governments—specifically through authoritarian leadership, corruption, and discriminatory measures—when confronted with the public's heightened expectations for transparent and effective crisis management under conditions of acute threat.
- Impact of right-wing populism on democratic institutions and crisis management.
- The relationship between "illiberal behavior" (authoritarianism, corruption, discrimination) and public support.
- Qualitative comparative case study analysis of the Czech Republic and Poland.
- Testing theoretical assumptions about public support under conditions of acute (life) threat.
- Evaluation of the effectiveness of government crisis responses and the influence of the "hour of the executive".
Excerpt from the Book
1.2 The Puzzle and Research Question
Against the backdrop of autocratic opportunism and illiberal behavior during Covid-19, there is a large debate in the field of populism and democracy research about whether populist parties and leaders are strengthened or weakened by the Covid-19 crisis (cf. Morelli 2020; Rapeli and Saikkonen; Rohner 2020; Katsambekis and Stavrakakis 2020: 6; Burni 2020a; Bayerlein and Gyöngyösi 2020). However, due to the newness of the current crisis, the justification for one side or the other is based more on theoretical assumptions than on reliable empirical research, while the existing empirical studies (to the date of writing) refer exclusively to the first wave of the pandemic. These examinations often imply that populists tend to benefit from the crisis, since their approval rates either slightly increased during the first wave or remained on the same level (cf. Wondreys and Mudde 2020). However, as the second and third waves unfold in autumn 2020 and winter/spring 2021, a new picture emerges. Right-wing populist governments in Europe on average appear to be losing public support, although this is not the case in non-populist-governed EU member states.
This phenomenon seems puzzling, since it would be more likely to expect that populist governments would gain public support through the crisis. This conclusion not only derives from the “hour of the executive”, but also to the observation that societies in times of crisis attribute a stronger leadership role to their government and express more allegiance than in ordinary times – a finding also known as the "rally-round-the-flag" effect (cf. Mueller 1970). This would help right-wing populists to present themselves as strong and decisive crisis leaders, which could strengthen their power and popularity as authoritarian leaders (cf. Enyedi 2016; Pappas 2019; Albertazzi and Mueller 2013). However, understanding public support according to David Easton as the “way in which a person evaluatively orients himself to some object through either his attitudes or his behaviour” (1975: 436), it is the specific support for right-wing populist government leaders and parties that decreases during the pandemic.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Presents the research background regarding the Covid-19 pandemic's impact on democracy, introduces the central research question, and outlines the structure of the thesis.
2. Theoretical Background: Conceptualizes right-wing populism, discusses its antagonism with liberal democracy, and reviews determinants of public support under conditions of acute threat, formulating the central hypothesis.
3. Research Design: Describes the choice of qualitative case studies (Czech Republic and Poland) and the process tracing method to analyze the causal relationship between illiberal behavior and public support.
4. Illiberal Behavior & Public Support before Covid-19: Analyzes the political context, governance style, and public support trends in the Czech Republic and Poland prior to the pandemic outbreak.
5. The Covid-19 Pandemic in Czech Republic and Poland: Details the general pandemic patterns, containment measures, and economic relief strategies implemented in both case study countries.
6. Illiberal Behavior & Public Support during Covid-19: Conducts a process tracing analysis of authoritarian leadership, corruption, and discriminatory measures, and examines changes in public support during the pandemic.
7. Results and Discussion: Synthesizes findings, evaluates alternative explanations (e.g., infection rates, economic factors), and discusses the study's limitations regarding the impact of illiberalism on public support.
8. Conclusion: Summarizes the thesis findings, confirms the hypothesis that illiberal behavior drives support decline under acute threat, and offers suggestions for future research.
Keywords
Right-wing populism, Covid-19 pandemic, public support, illiberal democracy, Central and Eastern Europe, authoritarian leadership, political trust, corruption, crisis management, rally-round-the-flag, Czech Republic, Poland, democratic backsliding, process tracing.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this thesis?
The thesis investigates why public support for right-wing populist governments in Central and Eastern Europe declined during the Covid-19 pandemic, contrary to the expected "rally-round-the-flag" effect.
What are the primary thematic fields addressed?
The study covers populism research, the impact of crisis on democratic stability, political trust under acute threat, and the governance of right-wing populist parties.
What is the main research question?
The work seeks to answer why public support for right-wing populist governments in Central and Eastern Europe decreased during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Which scientific methods are applied?
The author uses a qualitative research design, specifically applying the process tracing method to analyze temporal sequences of government actions and public opinion data in two selected case studies.
What is the central argument of the main body?
The argument posits that the constitutive "illiberal behavior" (authoritarianism, corruption, discrimination) of right-wing populist governments makes them appear less trustworthy and caring, leading to a significant loss of public support when societies face acute threats and demand transparency.
Which keywords characterize this research?
Key terms include right-wing populism, Covid-19, public support, illiberalism, crisis management, and democratic backsliding.
Why were the Czech Republic and Poland selected as cases?
These countries were chosen as representative cases of right-wing populist governance in Central and Eastern Europe that experienced similar pandemic trajectories, allowing for a focused analysis of illiberalism as an explanatory variable for declining support.
What role does "illiberal behavior" play during the pandemic according to the author?
The author argues that while such behavior might be tolerated in normal times, it severely damages public trust during the Covid-19 pandemic because citizens expect transparent and competent crisis management in times of acute life threat.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Tabea Geißler (Autor:in), 2021, Public Support and Illiberal Behavior of Right-wing Populist Governments during the Covid-19 Pandemic, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1184584
