The electric car. A future model for everyone in Germany?

Table of contents

List of abbreviations

1. Introduction

2. Electric cars – current status

3. Environmental balance of electric cars

4. Range of electric cars

5. Charging and charging infrastructure
5.1. Interest of politics and business
5.2. Impact of charging on the electricity grid

6. Costs

7. Sustainability
7.1. Future development in politics, business and industry
7.2. Future areas of application

8. Conclusion

Bibliography

List of abbreviations

accumulator accumulator

BEV Battery Electric Vehicle

CCS Combined Charging System, fast charging plug

CHAdeMO Ocha demo ikaga desuka (Japanese fast charging plug)

CO2 carbon dioxide

EnBW Energy Baden Württemberg

g/km Grams per kilometer

GW gigawatt

NEDC New European driving cycle

Km Kilometer

Kw kilowatt

AUTOMOBILE automobile

SUV Sport Utility Vehicle

Type 2 AC charging plug

UPS United Parcel Service

1. Introduction

One million electric vehicles in 2020 was the federal government's goal. So far, only 53,861 pure electric cars drive in Germany (as of 01.01.2018).¹ However, manufacturers have to rely more and more on electrical engineering in order not to exceed the upper limit of the permitted CO2 emissions for passenger cars. This upper limit will be further reduced by politicians in order to reduce CO2 emissions in transport.² Cars with internal combustion engines will not be able to meet these future values.³ The importance of the electric car in the future is therefore an increasingly frequently discussed topic in the media, politics and business. In order to advance the energy transition, Lienkamp calls for an urgent rethinking of car use. With the statement "Because I fly once a year on vacation, I don't have an Airbus in the garden"⁴ he tries to convince his listeners that an electric car does not have to drive 1000 km at a time if it is primarily needed for the city.

Whether the electric car with its pros and cons will be a future model for everyone in Germany is the central question of my seminar paper.

At the beginning I would like to give an overview of the topic of electric cars and describe the current situation in Germany. Among other things, I check the sustainability of electric cars. Are they really as ecological as the proponents always say?

Then I deal with the important topic of reach, which is often described as insufficient. I will also explain the situation of the charging infrastructure today and in the future. Is the charging infrastructure already sufficient, and what needs to be changed in the future?

The question of cost plays a relevant role and is an important decision point for many buyers. When will electric cars cost as much or even less than cars with internal combustion engines? Who will switch to an electric car in the future and when? I will deal with these questions and others in the field of the future viability of the electric car.

The content of my study is limited to electromobility in the field of passenger cars. In addition, I will only discuss the development, the sensible use of pure electric cars and their future opportunities in Germany and leave out global change. Hydrogen vehicles and hybrid vehicles are not taken into account.

2. Electric cars – current status

The automobile was invented at the end of the 19th century. At that time, not only combustion engines were developed and built, but also electric cars at the same time. The first practical electric car was presented to the public in Paris in 1900. This car could travel up to 50 km.⁵ Due to the limited range, this technology could not keep up with the combustion engines and was therefore not pursued further. With the invention of the lithium battery in 1991, the basis for a renewed upswing in electromobility was created.⁶ Experts cite the year 2011 as the official market launch of the electric car, as at that time the first modern model, Nissan Leaf, was produced and sold in larger series, and the population and the media became aware.⁷

The basic principle is the same for all electric cars: Instead of a gasoline tank and a combustion engine, they have a battery that is charged via a power connection. The stored electrical energy drives an electric motor and the car is moved.

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Fig. 1: Electric car and plug-in hybrid sales in Germany between 2010 and 2017⁸

Today, 53,861 purely electric cars drive on German roads (stock on 01.01.2018). In 2017 alone, there were 25,056 new registrations (+119.6%)⁹ (see Fig. 1). Compared to all new registrations last year with 3.44 million cars in Germany, however, their share is still very low.¹⁰

Those who decide to buy still have to wait between three and twelve months for their new car. Despite low demand, the supply of the industry is not sufficient. In the meantime, however, there are already 26 models to buy in Germany.¹¹ These have ranges according to the new European driving cycle (NEDC) of 150 km to 632 km.¹²

Electric vehicles today offer a high level of safety. "Thanks to the compact design of electric motors, pure electric vehicles have a significantly larger crumple zone in the front area. The battery pack, which is housed flat in the vehicle floor, also ensures a high structural integrity of the vehicle."¹³ Tesla is the safest SUV, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).¹⁴

In addition, the electric car is much quieter. Car noise is often complained of in housing estates on motorways and in large inner cities and leads to damage to health.¹⁵

3. Environmental balance of electric cars

To delay climate change, CO must₂emissions into the atmosphere. "But it's not just electricity generation that needs to become sustainable. The transport sector in particular is slowing down CO₂-Savings potential. While Germany has all its CO₂emissions by almost 28 percent between 1990 and 2014, the transport sector achieved a comparatively meagre reduction of 2.6 percent over the same period."¹⁶ In the last 4 years, there has even been an increase of 1.8%.¹⁷ In order to solve the problem of sustainability in transport, electric cars have become increasingly important in recent years and should continue to gain in importance in the near future. Many critics doubt that the electric car is more ecological at all and therefore cannot actually provide any help in the energy transition.

It is often claimed that the production of electricity produces more emissions than vehicles with internal combustion engines. In addition, it is criticized that the production of the battery is very energy-intensive, and thus the advantage over combustion engines is canceled out again.

There is a lot of research on this topic, but it is based on different assumptions, which is why their results differ.

According to an article in the Spectrum of Science, the CO₂ - Emissions per production of a battery approx. five tons of CO₂.¹⁸ A study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has calculated that after 1.5-2 years, the electric car has already caught up with this disadvantage again. If an electric vehicle is charged with today's average German electricity mix, it is 30% cleaner over its service life than the currently most efficient combustion engines.¹⁹

Another study compared the Tesla ModelXP100D electric SUV with the Ford Fiesta small car to prove that the electric car is more ecological, despite the class difference. "Over a running time of 175,000 kilometers, the Tesla - which can accommodate up to seven people - causes carbon dioxide emissions of 35 tons, according to the calculations. The five-seater Fiesta comes to 39 tons."²⁰ According to the scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the electric car, here Tesla, has a significantly larger CO₂-Emissions in the production with 13 tons and the Fiesta only 5 tons. On 175,000 km, the Tesla, influenced by the German electricity mix, consumes 22 tons, the Fiesta in comparison 34 tons. It follows that the Tesla is more ecological after traveling this distance.²¹ The electricity mix was created in 2016 with 527g CO₂ per kWh determined by the Federal Environment Agency²². But there are also electric cars with significantly lower consumption, such as the Hyundi Ioniq with only 11.5 kW/100km.²³ This reduces the distance to be driven until the electric car is more environmentally friendly.

Whether electric cars drive in a climate-friendly manner depends to a large extent on the electricity used. The higher the proportion of renewable energies in the electricity mix, the more environmentally friendly the electricity generation is.

In a very recent study, the ADAC has divided different diesel, gasoline, natural gas, LPG cars as well as hybrids and plug-in hybrids into small cars, compact and upper middle class and compared them with a total mileage of 150,000 km. The electric car in the compact class has the best eco-balance, even when using the German electricity mix with 22.5 tons of CO₂. If the electricity came exclusively from renewable energies, it would even be only 10 tons of CO₂. According to the ADAC, the most carbon dioxide is produced by gasoline engines with 30 tons of CO₂ outcast. This means that the electric car pays for itself after about 45,000 km compared to the petrol engine. In the case of second cars with fewer kilometers driven as well as in the upper middle class, the automobile club has come to the conclusion that these can not yet offer a great ecological advantage today. The calculations of the ADAC study are based on the German electricity mix of 2013 with a share of 23 percent renewable energies. According to the current targets, this share is to rise to up to 45% by 2025.²⁴ As a result, the climate-friendliness of electric cars is increasing every year and will be significantly improved in the future.²⁵

The graph from the Federal Environment Ministry also confirms that electric cars already have less CO₂ (see Fig. 2).

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Fig. 2: CO₂-Emissions per vehicle kilometre over the entire life cycle, on the left for a vehicle newly registered in 2017, on the right for one that will be new on the road in 2025.²⁶

On the one hand, production, maintenance and disposal were taken into account and, on the other hand, driving operation and energy supply.²⁷

In addition to the energy consumption during the production and use of an electric car, the manufacturing conditions and their environmental impact must also be taken into account. Cobalt is used in many batteries. This metal is mainly mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo.²⁸ Extraction is often associated with child labour. This reference is quite justified, but does not apply to the entire dismantling. 80% of the cobalt in the Congo is produced as a by-product of state copper mining without child labour. 20% is mined in small, family-run mining companies. Here, children are often taken to work.²⁹ In addition, only 42% of the mined cobalt is used for batteries. The larger part is processed in industry for other products such as high-performance alloys, magnets or even in paints.³⁰ Recycling cobalt in a battery is much easier than with the other products mentioned, as it is much more concentrated in the battery.³¹ Nevertheless, the use of cobalt is unsatisfactory in connection with electromobility. As a result, attempts will be made in the future to develop batteries that do not contain cobalt.³²

Another problem substance is neodymia. Neodymium belongs to the so-called "rare earths" and is used to make magnets. These magnets are part of electric motors. Neodymide is mined in China.³³ "Degradation and treatment are considered to be very harmful to the environment because radioactive waste products are produced."³⁴ But not all models have engines that contain rare earths. The engines of Tesla and Renault do not contain these, for.B.³⁵ BMW is currently researching a method to produce electric motors without rare earths.³⁶

Lithium is also used in the batteries. However, it is not so problematic in production and can be recycled well, with a recovery of 95%. In addition, the country with the largest production is Australia, which has significantly better framework conditions in relation to the Congo.³⁷

In a comparison of the environmental compatibility of electric to combustion engines, the combustion engines do not have cobalt and neodymium, but the very environmentally harmful platinum in the catalytic converters. This is not in electric motors.³⁸

The efficiency of a car also depends on the efficiency of the engine, i.e. how effectively energy is converted into power. The efficiency of an electric motor is significantly more effective at 90-95% than that of a combustion engine at 20-40%.³⁹

Energy is also recovered during braking, which further increases efficiency (recuperation).⁴⁰ Due to this recuperation, electric cars also produce less particulate matter when braking. Particulate matter in particular pollutes the environment and leads to health hazards and consequential damage in conurbations.⁴¹

In summary, the electric car is far from 100% ecological today. Looking at the entire service life of an electric car, however, it is already more environmentally friendly than conventional cars. By constantly improving the electricity mix, environmental friendliness will increase significantly, and electric cars have great potential in the future to make transport with lower emissions.⁴²

4. Range of electric cars

Range is a frequently cited reason why the purchase of an electric car is rejected. The limited range is often used as a negative argument, and electric cars are presented as not yet suitable for everyday use and impractical. But here again the question arises: Do I really need an "Airbus in the garden if I only go on holiday once a year?"⁴³ How far can electric cars actually drive today? First of all, of course, you have to think about how far an electric car should drive so that it is suitable for everyone. From a purely road safety point of view, it is recommended to take a break of at least 15 minutes every 3-4 hours while driving.⁴⁴ During this time you drive on average about 400 kilometers. As a result, a range of 400-500 kilometers would be sufficient. In the 15 minutes break you should be able to recharge the car. Thus, longer distances would be feasible in good time. If you ask people with what range they would buy an electric car, 300 to 500 km is often indicated.⁴⁵

Today, according to the NEDC, electric cars can travel between 150 km and 632 km.⁴⁶ It should be noted here that there are large differences between reality and NEDC data. The range depends on the driving style, the speed and use of the air conditioning or heating. In addition, the performance of the battery is temperature-dependent. In summer you can go further than in winter.

The Tesla Model S has a theoretical range of 632 km, the Opel Ampera-e has a range of 520 km. In reality, both come about 400 km far.⁴⁷ But here the price must be considered. Not everyone can afford a Tesla. Cars in the compact class can already drive 200-300 km in reality (e.B. Renault Zoe, Nissan Leaf, VW e-Golf, Hyundai Ioniq Electric).⁴⁸ The optimal real range is not yet available. However, it can be assumed that the capacity of the batteries and thus the range will continue to increase.⁴⁹ Samsung wants to launch a mass-produced battery in 2021 that halves the charging time to 20min and thus allows a real range of 500km.⁵⁰ Renault's first Zoe had a range of 210 km in 2013, the latest model is already 400 km according to the NEDC.⁵¹ If the corresponding range of about 500 km is achieved at a reasonable price in the future, the electric car will be just as useful even for long distances as cars with combustion engines. Other manufacturers such as Audi and Jaguar are announcing this range for 2018 and Volkswagen and Mercedes for 2020.⁵²

But not everyone drives 500 km a day with their car. Most drivers usually drive less than 50 km a day by private car.⁵³ This means that most journeys are already possible with an electric car, especially in inner-city use.

5. Charging and charging infrastructure

Potential buyers also criticize that the charging infrastructure is too coarse. There are not enough charging stations available. This point is the first part of the chicken-and-egg problem, which is discussed again and again in the press. This principle is used in many areas and investigates the question of what came first. The hen or the egg? This principle can also be applied to electromobility.⁵⁴

So far, the expansion of the charging infrastructure has progressed only slowly. For electricity providers or charging station owners, it is not worthwhile to invest even more in the expansion of the charging infrastructure, install charging stations and further expand the grid as long as there are few electric cars on the roads. The revenues from the sale of charging electricity are too low; it is not yet profitable. But as long as there are few charging stations, the sale of electric cars is difficult. The lack of infrastructure deters many interested parties. The automotive industry sees no need to offer more electric cars. This will inhibit the growth of the charging infrastructure and the expansion of electromobility.⁵⁵ This public discussion discourages potential buyers from buying an electric car out of "range anxiety" and the idea of insufficient infrastructure. But if you take a closer look at the topic, it becomes clear that the charging infrastructure in Germany is already sufficient for everyday applications.

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¹ cf. Federal Motor Transport Authority, 2018

² cf. Karle, Anton, 2016, p. 169

³ cf. Karle, Anton, 2016, p. 169

⁴ Lienkamp, Markus, 2017

⁵ cf. Karle, Anton, 2016, p.19

⁶ cf. Karle, Anton, 2016, p.20

⁷ cf. Randoll, Richard, 2017

⁸ Duran Ortiz, Mario Roberto, 2018

⁹ cf. Kaftfahrt-Bundesamt, 2018

¹⁰ cf. Kaftfahrt-Bundesamt, 2018

¹¹ cf. Köslich, Dietmar / Mayer, Andreas, 2017, pp.91-94

¹² cf. Köslich, Dietmar / Mayer, Andreas, 2017, pp.91-94

¹³ o.V., 2018c

¹⁴ Cf. o.V., 2017g

¹⁵ cf. Karle, Anton, 2016, p.24

¹⁶ Neißendorfer, Michael, 2017

¹⁷ cf. Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety, 2017b

¹⁸ cf. Schrader, Christopher, 2017

¹⁹ cf. Hall, Dale/ Lutsey, Nic, 2018

²⁰ Worry, Nils-Viktor,2017

²¹ cf. Worry, Nils-Viktor,2017

²² cf. Federal Environment Agency, 2017

²³ cf. Köslich, Dietmar / Mayer, Andreas, 2017, p.

²⁴ o.V. (2001a):

²⁵ cf. Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety, 2017b

²⁶ Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety, 2017a

²⁷ cf. Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety, 2017a

²⁸ cf. Al Barazi, Siyamend / Näher, Uwe / Vetter, Sebastian et al., 2017, p.1

²⁹ cf. Amnesty International, 2017, p. 16

³⁰ cf. Al Barazi, Siyamend / Näher, Uwe / Vetter, Sebastian et al., 2017, p.2

³¹ cf. Greenpeace, 2017

³² cf. Lienkamp, Markus 2016

³³ cf. Oeko-Institut e.V., 2011

³⁴ Tuil, Marie, 2015

³⁵ cf. Rössel, Conrad, 2018

³⁶ Cf. o.V. 2017f

³⁷ cf. Rössel, Conrad, 2018

³⁸ cf. Freistetter, Florian, 2012

³⁹ cf. Köslich, Dietmar / Mayer, Andreas, 2017, p.83

⁴⁰ cf. Karle, Anton, 2016, p.20

⁴¹ cf. Karle, Anton, 2016, p.168

⁴² cf. Schrader, Christopher, 2017

⁴³ Lienkamp, Markus, 2016

⁴⁴ Cf.Hempel, Christopher, 2008

⁴⁵ cf. Knauer, Michael 2017

⁴⁶ cf. Köslich, Dietmar / Mayer, Andreas, 2017, pp.91-94

⁴⁷ cf. Köslich, Dietmar / Mayer, Andreas, 2017, pp.91-94

⁴⁸ cf. Köslich, Dietmar / Mayer, Andreas, 2017, pp.91-94

⁴⁹ cf. Maehner, Julia, 2017

⁵⁰ Maehner, Julia, 2017

⁵¹ cf. Köslich, Dietmar / Mayer, Andreas, 2017, pp.91-94

⁵² Cf. o.V., 2017e

⁵³ cf. Karle, Anton, 2016, p.17

⁵⁴ cf. Rudschies, Wolfgang/ Kroher, Thomas, 2017

⁵⁵ cf. Rudschies, Wolfgang/ Kroher, Thomas, 2017