Climate change has adversely affected many communities and countries around the world, however, poor people in less developed countries are the most affected. The research investigated the negative impacts of climate change on rural communities in the Vubwi District in the eastern province of Zambia using observation, trend analysis, Pearson Regression, and Multiple Regression. Simple and Purposive sampling was employed to collect samples from the population, of 6096 rural households. The finding of the analysis was that 78% of the respondents were adversely affected y the impacts of climate change, while 22 were not badly affected. The local people lacked access to early warning and facilities such as dams for harvesting rain water for irrigation in times of drought and animal drinking. It was recommended that early maturity seed varieties be introduced to the rural poor people and scaling up means to livelihood diversity such as chicken rearing and adopting drought resistant crops such as cassava.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
DEDICATION
ABSTRACT
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF TABLES
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION..
1.1.. Background to the Study
1.2.. Effects of Climate Variability, Zambian Perspective..
1.3.. Statement of the Research Problem.
1.4.. Aim of the Study.
1.5.. Objectives of the Study.
1.6.. Research Questions.
1.7.. Research Hypothesis
1.8.. Significance of the Study.
1.9.. Scope of the Study..
1.10 Theoretical Framework.
1.11 Conceptual Framework..
1.12 Limitations of the Study.
1.13 Definition of Key Terms...
1.14 Structure of the Report.
1.15 Chapter Summary
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1.. INTRODUCTION.
2.2.. CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY
2.3.. Effects of Rainfall and Temperature Variability on Crop Yields
2.4 . Effects of Climate variability on Crop Yields.
2.5 Climate Change effects on Food availability and Nutritional Status of Households.
2.6.. Chapter Summary
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1.. Introduction.
3.2.. Study Area Location and Description
3.2.1 Study Area Location.
3.2.2 Study Area description...
3.3.. Research Design...
3.4.. Target Population..
1.2.. 3.5 Sample Size and Sampling Technique.
3.6.. Data Collection Instruments.
3.6.1 Household interviews.
3.6.2 Focus group discussions.
3.7.. Data Analysis Techniques..
3.8.. Ethical Considerations...
3.9.. Chapter Summary
CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION OF RESULTS.
4.1 . Introduction.
4.2.. Presentation of results.
4.2.1 Main food crops grown by communities in Vubwi District for the period 2010-2019
4.2.2 Temperature and Rainfall Recorded in Vubwi during the period 2010-2019...
4.2.3 Nutritional Status of the household’s from Vubwi District during the 10 years Under Review
4.2.4 Effects of the climatic Situation on Crop yields and households nutritional Status in Vubwi District
4.2.5 Background Characteristics of Respondents.
4.3.. Indicators of Climate Change.
4.3.1 Change in Rainfall Patterns...
4.3.2 Changes in temperature patterns
4.3.3 Occurrences of crop and livestock pests
4.3.4 Outbreak of plant and livestock pests including human disease
4.4.. Crop productivity trend analysis from 2010-2019.
4.4.1 Maize Productivity.
4.4.2 Cassava Productivity..
4.4.3 Sorghum Productivity
4.4.4 Impact of climate change on livestock production
4.5.. Climate Change Effect on Nutritional Status of Households
4.6.. Summary of Chapter Four (4)
CHAPTER FIVE: DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
5.1.. Introduction.
5.2.. Main food crops grown by communities in Vubwi District.
5.3 . Rainfall and temperature recorded in Vubwi district during the period 2010 – 2019
5.4.. Nutritional status of households from Vubwi district during the 10 years under review...
5.5.. Effects of the Climatic Situation on crop yields and household’s Nutritional status in Vubwi from 2010-2019..
5.6.. Analysis of the relationship between the Climatic Factors and Crop production..
5.7 . Hypothesis Testing.
5.8.. Chapter Summary
CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS...
6.1 . Introduction
6.2.. Main food crops grown in Vubwi District for the period under Review 2010-2019..
6.3.. Rainfall and Temperature recorded in Vubwi District during the period 2010 – 2019
6.4 . Nutritional status of households over the period 2010 – 2019.
6.5.. Effects of climatic situation on the local staple food crop yields and household’s nutritional status...
6.6 . Hypothesis Testing Results..
6.7.. Concluding Remarks.
6.8.. Recommendations...
6.9.. Areas of Further Research...
REFERENCES..
APPENDIX I: QUESTIONNAIRE FOR SMALL SCALE FARMERS..
APPENDIX II: SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEW GUIDE.
APPENDIX III: MAIZE PRODUCTION AND CLIMATE DATA - VUBWI
APPENDIX IV: ANNUAL STUNTING FIGURES - VUBWI
APPENDIX V: 2020/2021 MAIZE FIELD FROM MLAWE VILLAGE – VUBWI DISTRICT.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I am so grateful to the Almighty God for making what was a dream to become a reality for me. I also give credit to my supervisor Dr. Adrian Phiri for his guidance and for being always available for consultation and giving me feedback promptly despite his busy schedules. I extend my thanks to Dr.Kahela and Mr. Phiri (Zambia Statistics Agency – Chipata), Dr. Dennis Lembani (Heifer International-Chipata), Mr.Mutambo (The Hunger project in Vubwi), Mr.Phiri (Zambia Integrated Forest Landscape Project – Chipata), Mrs Mbuzi (Vubwi District Community Development Officer), Mr.Dauglas Mwiinga (Farm block Officer-Zozwe), Mr.Tembo (Farm block Officer –Vubwi Central), Mr. Banda Solomon (Vubwi District Nutritionist), Various Health workers from Clinics in Vubwi, Extension Officers, DACO’s Office and the Office of the District Commissioner for their assistance during my data collection and analysis. I am also immensely indebted to all my classmates who aided directly or indirectly towards the accomplishment of this task.
Finally, am deeply indebted to my mother (Febby Mubanga) and my late father (Chileshe Mulenga), my wife Ruth, my daughters Thelma and Blessings, my sons Ackson, Costa and Michael junior for their support as well as prayers during this journey. To each of you i say thank you and may God richly bless you.
DEDICATION
I have also dedicate this work to my dear wife, Ruth, and my lovely children, Thelma, Ackson, Costa, Michael and Blessings Mulenga for their unshaken support through prayers and words of encouragement.
ABSTRACT
This study examined the consequences of climate variability on maize yields and rural households’ nutritional status in Vubwi District. The district is located in the eastern part of Zambia, like the rest of the country ,it is grappling with the effects of environmental variations and change as well as other factors that affect the local staple food crop production, in particular, late delivery and high pricing of farming inputs such as fertilizer and seeds. The study was conducted in December, 2020 covering the period from 2010 to 2019.The main thrust of the study was to assess the effects of climatic variations on crop yields and household’s nutrition in the area. The study was guided by one hypothesis which negated the existence of a significant relationship between climate variability and maize yields and households’ nutrition in the district. Primary data was collected from a sample survey of 80 rural households taken from 6 096 households in the surrounding communities through self-administration of questionnaires. Simple random and purposive sampling was used to select both the study sites in terms of the villages and the sampling units. Secondary data in form of mean annual rainfall and temperature from 2010 – 2019 and the district level of production for the main local staple food crop (maize) were collected and analyzed. Trend analysis, Pearson correlation, multiple regression and frequencies were used to analyze the data. The findings show that maize is the major food crop grown, temperature had increased by0.710c from the base year 2010, while rainfall was characterized by inter-annual variability in the range 600m–830mm on average. With reduced harvests, households experienced hunger as both food scarcity and lack of income to purchase food afflicted homes. Results show that 78 percent of the households had experienced food shortages while 22 percent did not. It was also established that stunting cases were steadily rising; hence, recommendations were made to scale up school feeding programmes. It was concluded that mean annual temperature and rainfall were not the main determinants of crop yields and households’ food security based on R2 = 12%. Recommendations were that rural peasant farmers begin to plant other crops such as cassava besides the traditional maize crop that can perform better under the prevailing climatic conditions. In addition, existing obstacles to rural livelihood diversification should be removed by government to create community resilience against climate change (e.g. Dams construction).Indigenous knowledge about local farming practices should be tapped and strengthened with scientific backup by the help of Ministry of Agriculture and partners.
Keywords : Climate Change and Variability; Crop yields; Food Security; Household’s nutrition; Adaptation; Livelihood, diversification; Mitigation.
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Conceptual Framework..
Figure 2: Map showing location of Vubwi District in Eastern Province
Figure 3: Gender Distribution of the Study Area...
Figure 4: Age Distribution of Respondents...
Figure 5: Marital Status of Respondents
Figure 6: Educational Levels of Participants
Figure 7: Number of Household Members of Respondents..
Figure 8: Average Annual Incomes of Participants..
Figure 9: Respondent’s Farm Size
Figure 10: Farming Experience of Respondents
Figure 11: Land Tenure of Participants.
Figure 12: Rainfall patterns according to Respondents.
Figure 13: Rainfall Trends Recorded According to ZMD.
Figure 14: Temperature Variability According to Respondents...
Figure 15: Temperature Variability according to ZMD 2010-2019..
Figure 16: Outbreaks of Armyworms in the Area.
Figure 17: Participant’s Experience about Aphids Attacks on Crops...
Figure 18: Maize Production According to ZSA for the period 2010-2019
Figure 19: Stunting, Underweight and Wasting prevalence in Vubwi ..…...
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Predicted Impacts of Climate Change in Developing Regions..
Table 2: Respondents Experiences about Plants and Livestock Pests.
Table 3: Outbreak of Plant and Livestock Pests and Human Disease Vectors in Wet Season
Table 4: Respondents experience on Maize Productivity Trend in the Past 10years .
Table 5: Participants experience over Cassava Productivity in the Past 10years
Table 6: Participants experience over Sorghum Productivity in past 10years.
Table 7: Respondents Knowledge about Major effects of climate change on livestock.
Table 8: Participants Knowledge about Climate change effect on nutrition...
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
Climate change has been defined as any variations in environmental conditions after some time due to natural variability or other forces such as anthropogenic. These changes may be beneficial or adverse to farmers such as crop wilting due to dry spells thereby reducing harvests especially in rural areas. Less rainfall also imply reduced water for both crops and domesticated animals drinking and scarce fodder resulting into less milk production and loss of animal weight. Poor rural farmers are the hardest hit by climate change due to over dependency on rain-fed farming.
Reduced harvests due to climatic impacts affect rural communities badly as it reduces food availability and incomes for purchasing of needed food stuffs which are not produced locally such as cooking oil, bread, butter and sugar to name but a few needed for healthy bodies. Lack of necessary balanced diet due to insufficient food intake and dependency on single source of food such as nshima has been a source of concern in many rural communities around Zambia. Balanced diet is cardinal for brain development and good academic performance especially among children (Dauncey, 2009: Woodhouse et al., 2012) and also important for adults to carry out work effectively.
The continent of Africa is one among the most vulnerable to environmental changes and variability (IPCC, 2007). Rainfall and temperature are among the many climatic parameters with a change in both short and long-term patterns (Opole, 2013). Previous evaluations found that rain-fed agriculture dependency and volatile temperatures are some of the causes reported for food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa region (Kotir, 2011). Climate shifts have also greatly diminished agriculture through severe weather events including recurrence of droughts and floods in Africa (Hassan and Nhemachena, 2008). Elsewhere, in Kenya, frequent droughts and floods have not only claimed human lives but have also decimated livestock and reduce farm output (USAID, 2007).Variability in climate attack directly or indirectly the four pillars of food security ( i.e. availability, stability, accessibility, and utilisation), Schmidhuber and Tubiello (2007).
In the continent of Africa, the dangers of climate change are rising overtime because of the developed countries' pollution. This is a burden for Africa to adjust to the adverse effects of climate change because most countries still depend on external assistance and support. African states need at least 20-30 billion U.S. dollars a year for the next 10 to 20 years so as to minimize changes in climatic conditions satisfactorily. For Zambia, projected loss due to adverse environmental changes in agriculture sector is in the range amounting to US$ 2,200 – 3,130 million over the next ten (10) to twenty (20) years (Zambia Country Climate Risk Assessment Report, 2018). International organizations also need financial and technical assistance to help African countries in addressing the many impacts of climate variations (AfDB, 2011).
1.2 Effects of Climate Variability, Zambian Perspective
Zambia’s climate is tropical with variations across the country mainly due to changes in altitude. There are three (3) seasons in the country including, dry-cold running from April to August, hot-dry starting in September through to the end of October and hot to wet season from the start of November to the end of March (Jenkins and Phiri,2009 cited in Denison, 2011).The country is divided into three (3) ecological Zones with Zone I receiving 800mm of rainfall and below, Zone II receiving 800mm – 1300mm of rainfall while Zone III receives 1400mm and above of rainfall (Jenkins and Phiri,2009 cited in Denison,2011).Zambia like many other developing countries has suffered the shocks of climate change and variability. Temperature during summer has been rising at a rate of about 0.6oc per decade which is higher ten times comparing to the entire southern African rate (Jain, 2007). In terms of rainfall (World Bank,2006) explains that the country has been receiving below normal rainfall especially for the period 1990 -2004 with notable variability across the three (3) agro ecological zones (AEZs) in the Zambia. These variations in temperature and rainfall have potential to adversely affect crop production through reduced rainfall for crops, increased evaporation of soil moisture due to increase in temperature, pests and diseases and increased incidents of extreme events such as drought and floods. Mumba (2002) cited in Ngoma (2008) noted that Zambia’s climatic conditions have been changing since 1980s and rain seasons have been starting late and withdrawing early. These changes in climate impacts regions differently but small-scale farmers in third world countries Zambia inclusive, are the most vulnerable and disadvantaged due to over reliance on rain-fed agriculture (Mulungu & Ngo’mbe,2020).The reduction in crop harvests is not just a threat to food sufficiency of rural households but directly affects incomes and nutrition as well. Agriculture sector in Zambia employs over 90% of the people in rural areas hence any adverse effect on the sector directly affects the majority people.
Maize ( Zea mays ) cultivation in Zambia has been increasing in the recent years with Southern province leading in terms of harvests, Eastern province and Central province following in that order (Jain, 2007).Despite the crop being cultivated in many places around the country, in Northern province, however, only about 18% of the total arable area is used for maize planting. World Bank (2006) observed that maize had become a source of protein and calories for many Zambians and also a source of revenue through selling the grains to Food Reserve Agency (FRA). However, climate change has reduced maize production in many places throughout the country as could be seen from the dry spell that affected crops in Southern province and parts of Eastern province in the 2019/2020 farming season (DMMU, 2020).Many other places reported floods such as Mambwe District in the Eastern province and Lunga District of Luapula Province causing property and crop damages. Outbreaks of pests and diseases were reported in many districts including Vubwi and Chadiza in the Eastern province which caused severe damages to crops in the fields. Reduced production of maize has serious repercussions regarding households’ food sufficiency and nutritional status of people especially in places such as Vubwi where maize is a local staple food crop for households.
The World Bank Group (2006) indicated that, Zambia recorded increase in temperature of about 0.6 degree Celsius range per decade, 10 times the world or Southern Africa. Nevertheless, both regional growth and decrease in rainfall will occur in the low latitudes over land areas (IPCC, 2001). Since time in memorial Zambia’s majority population have been practicing subsistence agriculture by cultivating local crops like maize, sweet potatoes, groundnuts, cassava and many more other crops in small quantities for consumption while the excess is sold for an income in markets and to the Food Reserve Agency (FRA).Because of the little quantities, indigenous people were producing, Antwi (2013) explained that the white farmers were granted the task of providing food for the Zambian urban population during the colonial administration. In the 1920's, as Scott (1995) reported, commercial farming began when the white immigrants developed farms to supply the growing urban population, which according to Chizyuka (2006) increased in copper mining areas, particularly in the Copperbelt Province. These farms, Scott (1995) said that maize was always the major crop. Apart from feeding the urban population, maize production in Zambia (also Zimbabwe, Malawi and Kenya) was driven by other factors including: (i) Agronomic suitability of maize, (ii) British starch market, (iii) Milling technology; (iv) Integration of Africans into the settler wage economy; and (v) Market and trade policies propagated by settler farm lobbies (Smale and Jayne, 2003).
Increasing climate change and variability is something the world cannot avoid or ignoring. Specifically, in Zambia there is a strong sense that more should be done to make the Zambian society better prepared for future climate variability incidences. The various environmental factors hampering maize farming in Zambia include: droughts, fall armyworms, dry spells and floods among others. For example, World Bank Group (2006) observed that because of repeated dry spells, maize yields has been declining from early 1990’s onwards in country. Further, the flooding of lowland areas and death of animals used as drought power in many places affects output of maize farming (FAO, 1998).
Antwi (2013) also added that Zambia is among countries with reported decline in maize production mainly due to climate variability causing droughts in some regions and floods in others. It has been reported that 0.7 degree Celsius –2.0 degree Celsius rise in temperature for the last 40 years in Zambia, coupled with unstable and unpredictable precipitation, has exacerbated water-scarcity challenges, coupled with degradation of ground water catchment areas such wetlands, flood plains, rivers and lakes (Mutimba et al., 2010). Zambia as a country is equally affected in many ways attributed to climate variation and changes such as invasion of pests and diseases, with the latest being the African Migratory Locusts in Mwandi District of western province in 2020. The growth rates in crop yields have been significantly declining and the on-going climate change and variability is forecasted to reduce local crop yields even further in many parts of Zambia, thus affecting food security (Pingali, 2012). Moreover, Western province has a diversity of agro-ecozones, all affected differently by climate variability impacts.
The vast majority of Zambian climate change research has focused on the arid and semi-arid lands in general, where precipitation is “always” a constraint on productivity and Pastoralism (Jones et al., 2009). In contrast, the medium and high potential agro-ecozones also targeted by this study support the bulk of the Zambian population. These zones are also subject to climatic changes that means agricultural production can be constrained by water scarcity, soil fertility or flooding even over small temporal and spatial scales (Notter, 2007). Given an existing context of substantial variability and uncertainty in most Zambian production systems (e.g. of rainfall, temperature, crop-soil systems and markets), it is important to deepen the understanding of how longer term trends of climate variability are understood and portrayed in local knowledge (Roncoli, 2016). This study focused on local perceptions on climate variability in Vubwi District with regard to households’ food security and nutrition. The study also investigated trends in rainfall and temperature variability. Phenology studies for plant growth observation gives an understanding of climate variability and growth periods of the predominant crops grown in Vubwi District and the surrounding areas. Thus maize, sorghum and cassava yields were investigated in the district in the era of climate variability. The study further analysed the nutritional status of local households amidst climatic variations and its adverse effects on maize yields.
The agricultural sector is considered to be directly linked to and is influenced by climatic factors particularly precipitation and temperature (Gregory et al., 2005). Agriculture Sector has therefore been mainly used to analyse the effects of environmental changes and variability as precipitation and temperature directly enter farming functions (Fisher et al., 2012). Agriculture sector is the key driver for Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth in many countries and also crucial for food security especially in Africa (AMCEN, 2011).However, its activity in relation to other developing countries is low despite the sector's economic significance in Southern African countries.Farming is a vital and mainstay of various economies in most countries in Southern Africa as a whole. In terms of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) share, however, some countries have become less reliant on agriculture, with Southern Africa and Mauritius being among others, as a result of their rapid economic growth. The agricultural sector makes around 12 per cent a contribution to the overarching African Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but for all African countries included in this report, the agricultural GDP share decreased over time. Except Angola, South Africa and Mauritius, the agriculture sector contributes more than 20 per cent to the GDP of Southern African countries. Agricultural GDP share in Madagascar is about 46per cent, compared to just 2.5 percent in South Africa. Multiple studies show that temperature rise and rainfall decrease has negatively been impacting agricultural development in Southern Africa (Hulme, 1996; Parry et al., 2007; Eriksen et al., 2008; Chikozho, 2010). For most rural people in Southern Africa, agriculture remains the primary source of jobs and incomes. The agriculture sector’s share of employment is approximately 60per cent in Southern Africa and more than 60per cent in 10 of the nations considered under this analysis, with the exception of Mauritius (8.73%) and South Africa (8.69%).
In countries including Tanzania, Uganda, Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya and Mozambique, agriculture’s share of employment goes beyond 80 percent; however, as echoed previously, it is below 10per cent in South Africa and Mauritius. Africa’s agricultural activities are primarily rain-fed and susceptible to climatic changes and variability; this has adversely affected crop yields and animal life, thus endangering farmers' incomes. Droughts have largely influenced Southern Africa's climatic variations (United Nations World Water Development Report, 2003). Southern Africa's agriculture also suffers from population and urbanization stress in addition to lower rainfall and increased temperatures (Nicholson, 1994 & 2001). From 1961-2011, annual urban population growth in Africa was around 4 per cent (WDI, 2012).Climatic changes on the wellbeing of fauna and flora, food security, socio-economic activities, natural resources, physical infrastructure, makes the greatest threat to sustainable human development. The global climate continues to vary naturally, but scientists believe that growing levels of anthropogenic created earth's greenhouse gases have contributed greatly to changes in the climate.
1.3 Statement of the Research Problem
Climatic changes and variation have become issues of concern all over the world because of their influence not only on human lives but on every living organism and the future of the entire world, and in particular, their ever-increasing effects on food security (Marshall et al., 2014). Zambia has not been spared by the adverse climatic changes culminating into extreme weather conditions, like droughts, elevated temperatures and unstable rainfall patterns (7NDP, 2017-2021).Variations in terms of temperature and precipitation has continued to affect crop yields negatively through dry spells and flash floods especially among peasant communities who depend on rainfall for farming and are characterised by less adaptive capacities. Reduced crop yields directly affect food security pillars such availability, stability, accessibility and utilization resulting into poor households’ nutrition and challenges in brain development and poor academic performance among children living in poverty stricken rural communities (Dauncey, 2009: Woodhouse et al., 2012).The problem of under-nutrition continues to be the globe’s most serious, however, least attended to socio-economic and health problem of our time. One example of poor nutrition among communities in Sub-Saharan Africa came out in the 2011 UNESCO EFA Global Monitoring findings, stating that many children below fifteen years were underweight because of poor diet and malnutrition, making them more exposed to ailments and less able to be attentive in classroom (Chinyoka, 2014). The major problem of under-nutrition is the human and socioeconomic costs which are enormous, falling hardest on the majority poorest, especially on children and women (Horton et al., 2009; Scaling Up Nutrition, 2010). Many people globally who have been the victims of under-nutrition early in life, face myriad of challenges in life as they grow up. Generally they encounter an increased risk of illness and death while the young ones experience difficulties at school, and are mostly unable to make a full scale contribution viz-a-viz the social and economic development of their households, communities and nations during their adulthood (Nabarro, 2010). Such children are more vulnerable to vector borne diseases. Physical dangers include extreme climatic events like flooding and droughts which all pose unique threats to rural population.
People in excess of 2.5 billion world over rely more or less directly on farming for their livelihood; the availability of resources is a matter of survival. Adverse impacts on agricultural sector and prices triggered by either gradual changes in long-term climatic trends or more frequent and severe natural disasters affect poor people through food production impacts, higher food prices, and changes in rural incomes. Therefore, understanding and forecasting the agricultural productivity and supply, quality and diversity, as well as where food losses are occurring across regions, will be a significant factor in reducing human, environmental, economic and food security impacts (World Bank Group, 2016). It is obvious that as prices of food skyrockets, the risks of malnutrition and stunting increase too. In addition, seasonality, which is compounded by climate change, can have substantial effects on people’s nutritional status. Women and children are particularly susceptible to malnutrition induced by seasonality. Despite the substantial nutritional impacts of seasonality, policymakers and program implementers are at times unaware of these effects owing to inadequate data (Nelson, 2009). It is vivid from observations across many indicators that a number of fundamental measures of climate are changing. These broad changes, known as “climate variability,” threaten the biological systems on which the life, health and prosperity depend. On the basis of well-established evidence from the past 30 years, there is now a broad consensus among scientific organisations and approximately 97 per cent of climatologists that human-generated greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause of climate change (Nellemann, Hain and Alder, 2008).Nkomoki, Bavorova and Banout (2019) explained that the impacts of climate variability are raging on farmers globally, the magnitude of the impacts of future climatic changes will depend on humans’ ability to substantially lessen greenhouse gas emissions and adopt adaptation strategies during the ensuing decades to protect poor families and communities who are characterised by low adaptive capacities from the harmful potential effects of environmental variability and changes.
Researches on the subject of climatic changes and its impacts in Zambia and around the world have been done and they have been well highlighted. However, Dube and Phiri (2013) concluded that there is still lack of education that completely emphasise the connection between climate change, variability and rural livelihoods, particularly its connection to rain-fed crop production and nutritional status. Hence, they suggested more studies and frequent engagement of rural communities regarding the topical matter of climate variations and households’ nutrition. In addition, Yadav et al.(2019) also lamented that dryland agricultural research do not receive much attention or investments from the community of scientific researchers, development agencies, policymakers or private sector due to huge misconceptions and casual approach to factors in such areas. This investigation, therefore, focused on the effects of environmental variations on local staple food crop yields and nutritional wellbeing of rural households with a special focus on Vubwi District in Eastern Zambia.
1.4 Aim of the Study
The aim of this study was to explore the effects of climate variability on staple food crop yields and nutritional status of rural households in Vubwi District in Eastern Province of Zambia covering the period 2010 – 2019.
1.5 Objectives of the Study
The research objectives were to:
Make an inquest into the main food crops grown by the communities in Vubwi District.
Analyse rainfall and temperature recorded in Vubwi District during the period 2010 - 2019.
Investigate the nutritional status of the households from Vubwi District during the 10 years under review.
Ascertain the effects of the climatic situation on maize yields and household’s nutritional status in Vubwi District.
1.6 Research Questions
In trying to achieve the general objective of the study, which is to assess the effects of climate change and variability on food crop yields and households’ nutritional status, the study was guided by the following specific research questions:
What were the main sources of food for the communities in Vubwi District during the period under study?
What were the rainfall and temperature variability trends experienced in Vubwi District during the period 2010 – 2019?
What was the general nutritional status of the households in Vubwi District during the period under review?
What was the effect of the climatic situation on crop yields and households nutrition in Vubwi District from 2010 to 2019?
1.7 Research Hypothesis
One hypothesis was tested at 5% desired significance level using multiple regressions, on whether there is a relationship between climatic variations (Rainfall and Temperature) and crop yields and main sources of food for the local communities and households’ nutrition.
Ho : There is no significant relationship between the climatic situation, staple food crop yields and household’s nutrition.
H1 : There is a significant relationship between the climatic situation, staple food crop yields and households’ nutrition.
1.8 Significance of the Study
Attaining food sufficiency among the rural households has become one of the biggest impediments confronted by many rural communities in Zambia and many other least developed nations due to environmental changes. The rate at which adverse environmental events such as droughts and floods are happening in different places in Zambia, have drastically reduced small-scale farmer’s ability to produce enough food for consumption resulting in nutritional problems at household level. The practical benefit of this investigation is that its findings provide useful insights and strategies that can enhance food crop production in rural Zambia especially in Vubwi District. Further, this study may add to the body of knowledge that exists in the field of agriculture and food security. It may also serve as a vital source of information or reference for future researchers. Scholars from different disciplines such as Development Studies, Agricultural Science, Food and Nutrition, and Economic Policy Management may find the results of this study intellectually stimulating. There is need to urgently identify through research the direct impacts of environmental changes on crop yields in different regions and establish reciprocal relationships through which the sector contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; this is a solid foundation for designing the funding policies to combat climatic variability and its impacts especially on food adequacy. People in Vubwi are likely to get awareness message of climate change adverse effects on crops production as well as how farming activities add to climatic changes through greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions when the final report is done. The district will be informed on the status of households’ nutrition and possible measures to remedy the situation will be suggested. The information that has been generated from this study, although for academic purposes, may also be useful to policymakers, Ministry of Agriculture and particularly the Zambia Agricultural Research institute (ZARI) in developing localized seed varieties, farmer organisations, the non-governmental organisations (NGOs), bilateral and multilateral institutions and the international community interested in improving rural crop harvests and households nutrition in the epoch of climate variability and change.
1.9 Scope of the Study
The research only covered Vubwi District in Eastern province of Zambia and all the information pertaining to this area alone even though other areas nearby may experience similar conditions and face the same challenges . The study envisages an assessment of the effects of environmental changes on food security mainly from the beneficiaries’ point of view and other relevant stakeholders. The study covered the impacts of environmental variability/change that affect crop yields and nutritional well-being of local farmers in the area covering the period 2010 - 2019.
1.10 Theoretical Framework
The worldwide effects of climatic situation on agricultural sector were clarified via various theories and approaches such as the crop yield analysis, spatial analysis, agriculture systems analysis and crop suitability approach or Agro-ecological Zoning (AEZ) developed by the FAO (1966) also used by Toit et al. (2001) and Xiao et al. (2002) and stimulated global models by (Li et al., 2009) among others (Ojumu et al., 2020). However, this study applied Abraham Maslow (1943) hierarchy of Needs theory to explain the connection between climate change and food inadequacy mainly due to poor crop yields and its contribution to poor households’ nutrition and the subsequent impact on academic performance of school going children in Vubwi. According to Maslow, the basic needs including food, shelter, water and clothing should be satisfied before people can shift attention to the next stage of the ladder towards self-actualization. It has been emphasized that adequate balanced diet is cardinal for human beings to fully meet both their physical, cognitive and economic potential (Chinyoka, 2014). With stunting at 34 percent as reported by the Zambia Health Demographic Survey (ZHDS) report in 2018, this situation has potential to undermine academic performance of children in schools as their cognitive abilities are negatively affected. Chinyoka (2014) posits that quality food is a costless teaching tool and learner’s motivation; however, climate change directly affects negatively the source of good diet especially in remote communities where people fully depend on rainfall for crop farming which is a critical source of food and income. At household level, Maslow (1943) explained that people have a pyramid hierarchy of needs that should be satisfied from bottom to top, starting from mere physiological subsistence through to self-actualization. Maslow postulated that higher levels of needs could only be attained when the lower order needs such food sufficiency are satisfied first. In the same line of thought, Rathus (2006) cited in Chinyoka (2014) explained that both needs in the pyramid are inborn to human beings, however, those higher up in the hierarchy are weaker. This therefore, means that hungry people are not likely to be motivated to learn in class or think about safety and affection needs until their hunger is satisfied.
For people in Vubwi to work towards other areas of development, it is paramount to improve crop production in the face of climatic changes especially that farming is the major source of staple food and as a source of revenue. With less crop harvest from farms, malnutrition at household level increases and poor performance physically and academically increases causing difficulties for the locals to work their way out of hunger and poverty. Maslow (1943) further explained that unfulfilled lower needs on the ladder would inhibit the person from climbing the ladder to the next stage. This therefore, calls for serious interventions to minimize the adverse effects of climate variations and change on crop yields and households nutrition especially in rural areas.
1.11 Conceptual Framework
The model (Figure 1) demonstrates the relationship between climate change (independent variable) and the main local staple food crop - maize yields and nutritional status of local households (dependent variables). The factors indicated in Figure 1, are not meant to be exhaustively or complete the set of climatic variables affecting and those being affected but rather those factors only considered for this study. Annual temperature variability and precipitation have been used as independent variables while local staple food crop yields (maize) and households’ nutrition have been taken as dependent variables in this study as dedicated in the diagram on the next page:
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Figure 1: Conceptual Framework
Source: Researcher (2020)
1.12 Limitations of the Study
Several limitations were encountered including limited time and lack of adequate financial resources which rank the highest in hampering the smooth execution of the study. However, through family contributions of money and material support, the work was carried out successfully. Secondly, poor record keeping by the farmers in terms of past crop harvests proved to be a stumbling block but secondary data from the Zambia Statistics Agency helped a great deal. The third challenge was COVID-19 pandemic outbreak which posed many impediments to full interactions with small-scale farmers and the entire communities in the study area of Vubwi, however, with support from the district administration and adherence to health guidelines, focus group discussions (FGDs) and Interviews with key informants were conducted successfully. In government offices such as FRA and the local clinics, data was very scant however; persistence was cardinal to obtain what was needed for successful completion of this research work. Transport to and from Vubwi District was another challenge because of the bad state of the road resulting in higher taxi fares but with God all things are possible and manageable.
1.13 Definition of Key Terms
Climate : Climate is the mean normal (average) weather situation for any given area or region. It characterises typical weather conditions for a given region based on long term mean averages e.g. a decade and beyond.
Climate change : Any variations in environmental conditions after some time due to natural variability or other forces e.g. anthropogenic forces.
Climate variability : Changes in the mean state and other climatic measurements (standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes etc.) on all temporal and spatial scales beyond those of individual weather events.
Climate change vulnerability : It is the incapability of a system or its inability to cope with the unfriendly environmental changes, including climatic fluctuations and extremes.
Climate change adaptations : Adaptation are measures or components of any policy intervention to climatic variation and changes. It has been defined as process of reducing susceptibility, increasing resilience, moderating the risk of climate effects on lives and livelihoods, and also taking advantage of opportunities posed by actual or predicted changes in climate.
Climate Impact : Defined as any detrimental effects and or benefits arising from environmental variability and changes on natural and human systems.
Food security : Defined as the situation which happens when “all people, at all times, have social, physical, and economic access to adequate, safe and nourishing food that meets their dietary requirements and preferences for an active and healthy life.”
Food systems : These are all activities involving the production, transportation and consumption of food items from the farm to the household table. It includes all actors and activities from farm to folk.
Farm System: The household, its resources, flow of such resources and interactions at individual farm level. Comprise of a household, its resources and flow of such resources
Farming System: Population of farm system with similar resources, farming activities, living conditions and challenges and for which related development mechanisms and approaches would be applicable.
Household: This is a dwelling place consisting of one or more people who live together and share meals.
Household food security : Referred to as the level at which the household is able to acquire or obtain food, either through its own production or purchasing from local supermarkets, enough quality food stuffs to meet the dietary needs of all the members of the household to maintain health lives.
Malnutrition: Defined as inadequacy of proper body nutrition caused mainly by not consuming enough quality foods or not eating enough of the right food stuffs .
Weather: This is defined as the present atmospheric state of a given place or region. This incorporates factors such as rainfall, temperature, dampness, sunshine, cloud covers and wind speed.
1.14 Structure of the Report
The report comprises of six chapters which have been organised as below:
Chapter one presents the introduction containing the background to the problem, problem statement, aims of the study and conceptual framework of the research, research objectives and research questions, significance of the study, assumptions and format of the study.
Chapter two gives a review of the literature while giving a critical analysis and evaluation of existing knowledge relevant to the study’s research problem.
Chapter three covers research methodology and the type of data utilised, how they were collected, the instruments used and collection methods and the analysis tools employed in trying to decode the data collected.
Chapter four consists of results presentation after analyses. It has displayed the findings following analyses of the data collected. All the results in form of tables, graphs and statements have been presented in this chapter.
Chapter five presents a discussion of the findings, linking primary findings and the literature reviewed for this study.
Chapter six provides summary of the findings, conclusion and submits recommendations to relevant stakeholders and further provides areas of future research on the topical subject.
1.15 Chapter Summary
The chapter has outlined a number of items including background to the research, statement of problem, aims, objectives and research questions, the conceptual and theoretical frameworks with limitations of this study. The conceptual frame was designed to meet the aims and objectives of the investigations with relevant theoretical support.The next chapter present literature from various scholars on the topic under study as per research requirements.
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter focuses on reviewing literature gathered from secondary sources which is relevant to the study. Scholar’s views and suggestions on the relationship between precipitation and temperature variability and its impacts on crops such as maize, soya beans and sunflower yields have been given adequate attention. Further, the review has sort to exploit the general views of scholars regarding the relationship between poor crop harvests arising from climatic changes and nutritional wellbeing of the people especially in rural communities.
2.2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY
Variability in terms of environmental conditions is explained mainly as changes in the mean state and other statistics of the environment on all temporal and spatial scales, beyond individual weather events. The term climatic variability is often discussed in relation to deviations of climatic measurements over a given period of time (e.g. a month, season or year) when compared to long-term statistics for the same calendar period. Climatic variability is measured by these deviations, which are usually termed anomalies. Variations may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external factors (external/human induced changes).Indeed the reality of environmental changes can no longer be denied because of overwhelming evidence that have continuously been posing serious threats not only to food adequacy and nutrition of households especially in rural communities but on environment throughout the world (Ayers & Hug, 2009; Kotir, 2011).Increased occurrence of extreme events such as floods, droughts, heat waves, rising temperature and unpredictable rainfall have caused poor crop yields especially among the vulnerable communities who rely heavily on rain-fed farming (Mulungu & Ngo’mbe, 2020).
Sea level rising and rapid melting of glacial are among many other signs indicating that climate change matters should no longer be taken as “business as usual” but with seriousness it deserves by adopting sustainable mitigation and adaptation measures. It is paramount therefore, that frantic efforts are given to sensitizing the masses mostly in rural areas on emerging trends of climatic changes and its detriments on crop yields, food security and household nutrition. People in remote communities in Zambia are exposed to climate variation impacts due to dependency on rain-fed farming for food and income but are characterised by low adaptive capacities (Zambia Country Climate Risk Assessment Report, 2018). Climate change discussions can no longer be de-linked from developmental programs because it threatens all areas of development efforts (Scanlan, 2003). Any development programmes should take into account climatic change effects on local communities’ food adequacy and health aspects. A component to educate locals on how to live with climate change should be a priority in development planning as explained by the Economist (2010), that no amount of Global action would stop climate change with its impacts on livelihoods, hence need for people to learn how to live with climate change.
The recent Global Hunger Index (GHI) report ranked Zambia under alarming category as reported by Nkomoki et al. (2019) and climate change impacts were among the most severe factors attributed to reducing food sufficiency in the country. It is therefore, imperative to exploit the challenges posed by climatic variability on crop yields and subsequently food security more so in rural areas. Adverse climatic situation will continue to worsen as temperature keeps on rising affecting rainfall quality and quantity resulting in crop failure and food insecurity among poor people in developing nations who rely on rain-fed agriculture (Kotir, 2011).This study adopted precipitation and temperature variability among other climatic factors and its effects on maize yields in Vubwi, with related threats on food security and nutritional status of local households.
2.3 Effects of Rainfall and Temperature Variability on Crop Yields
Rainfall patterns will increase or decrease the crop yield depending on their severity. The brook basins that are likely to be negatively affected by excess rainfall are situated at around 20 per cent of global populations. Increased rainfall can increase the risk of flooding in wetlands that mainly occupy agriculture (IPCC, 2007). Heavy and uncertain precipitation which can be transformed into floods is a limited factor for crop farming in developing countries. This prompted farmers to adapt by changing crops, diversifying crops and planting trees (Ziervogel et al., 2006 and Ludwing et al., 2007).Reduction in precipitation is expected by some 20 percent, due to long, dry spell, in places surrounded by tropes and hemispheres where Sub-Saharan African (SSA) nations reside. This could lead to loss of arable soil due to lower moisture in the soil, elevated aridity and increasing salinity, and depletion of groundwater (Vose et al., 2005, IPCC, 2007 and Oyiga et al., 2011). In Rwanda heavy rainfall in the North West caused a number of extreme erosions, inundations and landslides, causing losses of food production and human life displacement, leaving many people without food and homes (Mutabazi et al., 2013).
Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugees Affairs (MIDIMAR) recently documented the historic events in Rwanda, which show how catastrophes related with climatic changes ravaged the living conditions of farmers in particular, who earn their livelihood from agriculture (MIDIMAR, 2015). Like other disasters in climate change, floods have shown major effects on the livelihood of mankind. Rwanda is vulnerable to different flood risks due to its climate profile and changes (Douglas et al., 2008). MIDIMAR's study affirmed that Rwanda is more affected by intermittent floods because of the thick network of rivers, large swamps and marshlands. Sometimes in the rainy season floods destroy crops and other farmland in marshlands and swamps. Therefore, farmers who grow in lowlands have to use the uplands/areas intensively, which are also likely to cause soil erosion and earth loss (MIDIMAR, 2015).
Although it is a major source of food, agriculture sector is highly exposed to the extreme weather, which contributes to a global decline in agricultural production. Either increased water demand or decreased the water available for the irrigation areas could have effects on agriculture through Climate Change (IPCC, 2007 and Kang et al., 2009). Even if environmental changes underlies a surge of exceptionally high weather events, requiring a high degree of adaptation costs, agriculture has gained more international attention to adjust to the negative impacts of climate variations, so that the wants of the poor farmers directly relying on farming for their food can be met (World Bank, 2011) (SI) (FAO, 2012a). Arable land used for crop growing is about 1.4 billion ha worldwide, compared to over 200 million ha of irrigated arable land (FAO, 2012b). Out of the 2.5 billion people in LDCs,1.5 billion rely on small farms and are more poised to be impacted negatively by climate disasters (e.g. more severe prolonged droughts, and extreme flooding), according to the FAO (2012a)study. In certain cases, the impacts of change variability are related to the rising population in third world countries in particular, because population boom is the key factor behind the increasing emissions of GHGs through land use change. There is some evidence to suggest that between 1961 and 2011 the population in East Africa grew suddenly. The demographic forecast in this field is equally troublesome as the impacts of environmental changes mainly due to population increase affect the region unpredictably (Cooper et al., 2013) and (FAO, 2012a).
Cropping systems that are relied upon by most of Africans are primarily plumage farming, and various scholars argue that small farmers or primary farmers are as in others, among the most marginalised and vulnerable groups mainly due to lack of land and access to reliable irrigation system due to climate change impacts. Since they practice survivor agriculture, harsh weather events destabilize crop yields and further impact their households' food security (Altieri and Koohafkan, 2008) and (AGRA, 2014). According to UNISDR (2011), Africa accounts for over 20 percent of all global environment and environmental hazards, although the economic downturn accounts for just 0.6 percent. Eastern Africa is marked by arid and semi-arid spells. The area is therefore more likely to be impacted by rise in temperature and fluctuation in precipitation patterns. The fact that this area depends so much on rain-fed farming and the local food crops are mainly seasonal crops will certainly affect their seasonal crops due to variations in temperature and rainfall. For example, the decline in seasonal rainfall from 1996 to 2003 led to a decrease in harvests of some seasonal corn and sorghum in this area for example (Seitz and Nyangena, 2009).
According to Kandji and Verchot (2007), the East African Community (EAC), due to factors such as the topography, insufficient infrastructure, the low use of modern agricultural technology and poor institutions, has found itself vulnerable to severe weather events. In some EAC countries, many African scholars have reported extreme events which caused serious harm. In Kenya the recent extreme droughts recorded in 1997, 2000, 2004 and 2005, with devastating floods occurring in many areas of the country in 1997/98 and 2002. Recent severe weather events in Tanzania have caused significant economic harm. The protracted and serious droughts between 1971 and 2000, and the floods in 1993, 1997/98 and 2000/01 were reported (Seitz and Nyangena, 2009). In Uganda, flood patterns in 1961/62, 1997/2008, 2007 and 2010 have been the source of rainfall patterns. The prolonged and extreme drought in 1999/2000 and 2005 contributed to water shortages and eventually the loss of livestock and low milk production in cattle corridors (Hepworth, 2010). Severe climatic factors have both direct and indirect impacts on crop production from the agriculture sector and have been associated with disastrous landslides, damage to infrastructure, death, displacement and loss of living resources (Mutimba et al., 2010; GoK, 2013).
In the coming decades, the effects of climatic changes are expected to be different in the developing countries, including Africa, not only because the expected change in climate differs, but also because of vulnerability and adaptive capacity that greatly vary between nations and regions (Mertz et al., 2009). A UN Development Program (UNDP) research has projected that up to 250 million Africans will be subjected to increased water stress risk by 2020. Additional effects include increased risk for heavy floods; increasing sea level of coastal floods globally, and flooding in a number of small island states (UNDP, 2008). Some studies have outlined the most significant impacts of environmental change on water, agriculture and food adequacy in developing nations as shown in Table 1.0 on the next page (Ludwing et al., 2007; Altieri and Koohafkan, 2008).
Population boom and growing food demand combined with high precipitation variability put tremendous pressure on land resources (URT, 2003). Increased competition for access and use of fresh water supplies is uncovered by examining existing economic and environmental patterns in Africa. Around the same time the already overwhelmed resources are further pressed due to population boom and environmental changes. Tanzania is exposed to changes in climatic factors, as episodes of climate variability/change have harmfully affected the country in the past. Every 10 years over the past 30 years, the country has undergone at least one big drought. Extreme droughts occurred in the years 1973/1974, 1984/1985. Other events occurred in 2005, 2003/2004 and 2004/2005. It is assumed that the translucent indicators of increased climate shakiness are due to increased drought occurrence and severity (FAO/STAT, 2000). For example low amount rainfall is linked to lessen moisture in soils and therefore poor crop performance. On the other hand, high regular recurring rainfall during the height of the rainy season is accompanied by floods that damage previously cultivated crops (Valimba, 2004). They could pose a noteworthy obstacle to Tanzania's adoption of MKUKUTA, its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and Tanzania's Development Vision 2025 commitments to poverty reduction. Such failure will have a combination of livelihoods, properties, infrastructure, environmental and economic development and growing poverty levels.
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