Drawing on panel data from six German elections from 1998 to 2017, this study investigates the correlation between far-left positioned parties and immigration per capita using the occurring elections. Our main findings suggest a positive correlation between immigrants per capita and the voting outcomes of the far-left parties.
Given the controversy about Chancellor Merkel's open immigration policies during the peak of the refugee crisis in 2015 and 2016 in Germany, Western nations have more openly than ever responded to existing fears around immigration, favoring nationalist philosophies over more liberal ideologies. A critical determinant of the debate is driven by high xenophobia, where individuals become anxious about ethnic minorities and greater diversity, leading to the intolerance of migrants.
This has a direct impact on political stability and future electoral voting outcomes. One strain of research has focused on voting outcomes of immigrant inflows, mostly focusing on right-wing parties and the associated rise of voter bases halla2017immigration, arzheimer2019alternative. Arzheimer and Berning (2019), for instance, demonstrate that the primary motivation for voting for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a newly established right-wing populist party in Germany, is the voters' negative immigration attitudes. Little research, however, has focused on the influence of voting outcomes for far-left positioned parties in Germany.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1 Impact of Immigration
2.2 Immigration and Left-wing Parties
3. Methodology
3.1 Data
3.2 Method
3.3 Biases
4. Results
5. Conclusion
Research Objectives and Key Topics
The primary aim of this research is to investigate the correlation between the number of immigrants per capita and voting outcomes for far-left parties in Germany, using panel data from six federal elections between 1998 and 2017 to understand how proximity to immigrant populations shapes political preferences.
- Analysis of the relationship between immigrant inflows and far-left electoral support.
- Evaluation of the mediating role of unemployment in political voting behavior.
- Application of fixed-effects and random-effects panel data modeling.
- Assessment of the "contact hypothesis" in the context of German voting patterns.
- Investigation of economic security and its influence on support for social egalitarian values.
Excerpt from the Book
Immigration and Left-wing Parties
Election surveys and polls point out that the party’s view on immigration and associated policies is of importance in election campaigns (Weber, 2019). Ideologically, left-wing parties are in alignment with social diversity and should especially attract groups that sometimes are of disadvantage. Moreover, voting for left-wing parties typically implies believing in social egalitarianism and solidarity (Alonso & Fonseca, 2012). Alonso and de Fonesca (2012) describe left-wing voters as either highly educated citizens or inhabitants with liberal socio-cultural values or the working-class. Since the latter group might be more economically vulnerable, unconditional support of the left’s values might not be given (Bansak, Hainmueller, & Hangartner, 2016). Nevertheless, even if some fears exist, acceptance of and support for immigrants is still much higher than for other parties (Bansak et al., 2016).
As Weber (2019) points out, the proximity and the exposure to immigrants shape attitudes toward minority groups, such as immigrants. He found that higher exposure to immigrants, e.g. through more immigrants per capita, leads to more inter-group contact possibilities that have a positive net effect on attitudes toward immigrants. This is reflected in the inclination of voting toward left-wing parties that favor immigration (Weber, 2019).
We contribute to the existing research by examining the relationship between immigrants and voting outcomes for far-left parties in Germany. By looking at aggregated panel data on the country-wide level, we aim at finding support for the above-outlined literature and the tendency of citizens who live in greater proximity to immigrants to have a more positive attitude towards immigration and, therefore, vote for left parties. This reasoning leads to the following hypothesis:
H: Immigrants per capita increase voting outcomes for far left parties.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: This chapter introduces the political climate surrounding immigration in Germany, emphasizing the need to analyze far-left voting patterns in contrast to the heavily studied right-wing populist trends.
2. Literature Review: It examines how immigration impacts societal attitudes and defines the theoretical background regarding the relationship between economic status, unemployment fears, and support for left-wing ideologies.
3. Methodology: This section details the longitudinal dataset, the regression approach using pooled OLS, fixed-effects models, and the diagnostic tests applied to ensure model robustness.
4. Results: It presents the empirical findings showing a positive correlation between immigration and far-left voting, while identifying an unemployment tipping point of 8.36% that adjusts this effect.
5. Conclusion: This final chapter synthesizes the findings, noting that while migration generally supports far-left parties, economic vulnerability as represented by high unemployment can weaken this support.
Keywords
Immigration, Left-wing parties, Germany, Voting outcomes, Panel data, Fixed-effects model, Unemployment, Xenophobia, Social egalitarianism, Political stability, Electoral analysis, Tipping point, Regression analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the central research focus of this study?
The study examines how the presence of immigrants per capita in German counties influences the electoral success of far-left political parties over a series of national elections.
Which party spectrum is primarily analyzed?
The work focuses specifically on far-left positioned parties, often contrasted in the literature with the rise of right-wing populist parties.
What is the main objective of the analysis?
The goal is to test the hypothesis that higher levels of immigration per capita are positively correlated with increased vote shares for far-left parties due to inter-group contact.
Which scientific methodology is applied?
The researchers use panel data analysis, specifically comparing fixed-effects and random-effects models to ensure accurate results when observing spatial and temporal trends.
What does the main body cover?
It covers the theoretical grounding of immigration attitudes, the construction of the longitudinal dataset, specific diagnostic statistical testing, and the interpretation of regression coefficients.
Which keywords characterize this paper?
Key terms include: Immigration, Left-wing parties, Voting outcomes, Germany, Panel data, Fixed-effects, and Economic unemployment effects.
What is the significance of the 8.36% unemployment rate mentioned?
This is identified as the "tipping point." Below this level of unemployment, immigration has a positive effect on far-left voting; above this level, the effect turns negative.
How does this study treat the potential bias of omitted variables?
The authors address potential biases by utilizing a fixed-effects model to control for time-invariant characteristics unique to each county, thereby reducing omitted variable bias.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Anonym (Autor:in), 2020, Influence of Immigrants on Voting Outcomes of Left-wing Parties in Germany, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1289868
