The growing tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) as a geopolitical “focal point for confrontation” are supported by recently published press/research articles and a qualitative literature review of 343 SCS-related sources since 2009. In sum, they allow us to identify the main issues in the employment of national power instruments that are at interplay in the SCS power arena among six regional claimant states; namely the “People’s Republic of China” (PRC), “Taiwan”, “Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam” also including non-claimant Indonesia and the U.S. as an external party. Therefore, the paper will apply the DIME-L framework as a conflict-analysis tool to cover a 'Tour d’Horizon' of key causes/drivers of the conflict as well as the attempts to deal with them.
The stipulated essay question addresses the ongoing discourse on the 'Arms Race (AR)' concept in the maritime domain of the vast Indo-Pacific theatre. For the scope of this paper, I will focus on the superpowers U.S. and China due to “numerous headlines” which recently proclaim heightened tensions between them. In particular, at “security flashpoints” like the South/East China Sea (SCS/ECS), the “Korean Peninsula and Taiwan” and with regard to the intensified development of 'Hypersonic Missile Technology (HMT)'. This calls for an update of Till’s decade ago assessment who qualified the U.S.-Chinese instance as “naval modernisation in the region” which “has not yet become a fully-fledged naval arms race” but “clearly has the potential to do so”. To derive the answer for the case study, the paper will suggest an 'Arms Dynamics (AD)' framework to better differentiate the concepts of AR versus 'Arms Competition (AC)' in chapter two and will subsequently discuss and assess the constituting criteria in chapter three.
Table of Contents
QUESTION 3
1. Introduction
2. Elucidating the SCS “problematique”
2.1 Diplomacy
2.2 Information
2.3 Economic
2.4 Military & Law Enforcement/Para-Military
3. Assessing the risks for FON
4. Conclusion
QUESTION 6
1. Introduction
2. The Arms Dynamics Framework
3. Does the U.S.-Chinese case constitute an AR?
4. Conclusion
Research Objectives and Key Topics
The academic work investigates the geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, specifically focusing on the South China Sea and the nature of the strategic competition between the United States and China. The primary aim is to analyze the drivers of maritime insecurity and evaluate whether the ongoing military modernizations qualify as a formal arms race or rather as an intense bilateral arms competition.
- Application of the DIME-L framework to analyze conflict drivers.
- Assessment of Freedom of Navigation (FON) risks for non-Chinese vessels.
- Development of an 'Arms Dynamics' (AD) framework for comparative analysis.
- Evaluation of military capability acquisition, maintenance, and modernization.
- Examination of the strategic and operational levels of the U.S.-Chinese power relationship.
Excerpt from the Book
1. Introduction
The growing tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) as a geopolitical “focal point for confrontation” are supported by recently published press/research articles and a qualitative literature review of 343 SCS-related sources since 2009 (Hong Kong, 2021, pp. 5-12, Strating, 2022, Bajaj, 2022, Basu, 2022, O’Rourke, 2022, Hu, 2021, p. 485, Hamzah, 2020, p. 1, Carpio, 2021). In sum, they allow us to identify the main issues in the employment of national power instruments that are at interplay in the SCS power arena among six regional claimant states; namely the “People’s Republic of China” (PRC), “Taiwan”, “Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam” also including non-claimant Indonesia and the U.S. as an external party (Macaraig & Fenton, 2021, p. 45, Hayton, 2022, n.p., Hamzah, 2020).
Therefore, chapter two will apply the DIME-L framework as a conflict-analysis tool (Pavičić et al., 2022, O’Rourke, 2022, Wade, 2020) to cover a 'Tour d’Horizon' of key causes/drivers of the conflict as well as the attempts to deal with them. Chapter three will give an overall assessment of to what extent these power-related issues ('Independent Variables') have an influence on the risk level for 'Freedom of Navigation (FON)' as a component of the maritime security concept ('Dependent Variable') (Jahn, 2022a)?
Finally, chapter four will conclude that:
a) the tensions are primarily caused/driven by legally disputed territorial/overlapping economic claims and the claimant’s undiplomatic negotiation styles (“D”), the assertive Chinese information warfare (“I”), the contested access to stock/flow resources (“E”), Chinese military forward deployment on land claimed islands as well as enforcement operations by coast guard/paramilitary ships (“M-L”),
b) risk for impeded FON rights is high for Non-Chinese vessels in the vicinity of disputed areas containing rich fishing grounds and oil/gas fields. Whereas the risk to ultimately conducting U.S. military exercises/operations for preserving FON provisions of UNCLOS is considerably low, despite being irregularly challenged through close encounters by Chinese navy vessels/aircraft.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: This chapter introduces the geopolitical focal point of the South China Sea, outlining the research methodology and the use of the DIME-L framework to analyze conflict drivers.
2. Elucidating the SCS “problematique”: This section breaks down the drivers of regional tension into diplomatic, informational, economic, and military elements, including China’s island-building activities.
3. Assessing the risks for FON: This chapter evaluates the current threat levels to Freedom of Navigation rights based on the previously identified DIME-L power factors.
4. Conclusion: The summary aggregates the findings on regional tensions and the risk assessment to derive strategic implications for maritime security.
1. Introduction: This chapter defines the scope of the study regarding the Indo-Pacific theatre and introduces the arms race discourse between the U.S. and China.
2. The Arms Dynamics Framework: This section proposes a new continuum framework to distinguish between simple arms competition and a formal arms race.
3. Does the U.S.-Chinese case constitute an AR?: This evaluation applies the proposed framework to U.S.-Chinese military spending and strategic behavior.
4. Conclusion: The section provides a synthesis of the study, determining that the relationship currently qualifies as a bilateral arms competition rather than a full-scale arms race.
Keywords
South China Sea, Freedom of Navigation, DIME-L framework, UNCLOS, Maritime Security, Arms Race, Arms Competition, Indo-Pacific, Geopolitical Tension, Power Projection, Naval Modernization, Conflict Analysis, Military Capabilities, Territorial Claims, Regional Stability
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this work?
The work examines two distinct maritime security assignments: the sources of tension in the South China Sea and the nature of the arms competition between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific region.
What are the major thematic fields covered?
The documents cover geopolitical dispute analysis, international maritime law, defense economics, military strategy, and the application of political science frameworks to regional conflict.
What is the primary goal of the studies?
The goal is to provide a structured risk assessment for maritime navigation in the South China Sea and to determine whether current military developments should be classified as a strategic arms race.
Which scientific methods are employed?
The author employs conflict-analysis tools like the DIME-L framework (Diplomacy, Information, Military, Economics, Law Enforcement) and proposes a new 'Arms Dynamics' (AD) continuum framework for comparative analysis.
What is addressed in the main body of the text?
The main body analyzes the "problematique" of the South China Sea, evaluates physical and legal risks to navigation, and performs a detailed longitudinal analysis of defense spending and military posture.
Which keywords characterize the content?
Key terms include Freedom of Navigation, UNCLOS, Geopolitics, Arms Competition, Naval Modernization, and Indo-Pacific security.
How is the term "DIME-L" interpreted in this context?
DIME-L is an acronym representing Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economic power instruments, enhanced by Law Enforcement and Para-Military operations, used to map the sources of regional conflict.
Does the author conclude that there is a naval arms race?
No, the author concludes that the U.S. and China are currently engaged in a bilateral arms competition that has the potential to transition into an arms race, but which does not yet meet all the criteria for a full-scale arms race.
What role does the South China Sea play in the U.S.-China relationship?
The region acts as a primary "security flashpoint," where competing claims to territory and resources drive assertive military posture and increase the risk of accidental escalation.
- Quote paper
- Dr. phil. Mathias Jahn (Author), 2022, Tension is rising in the South China Sea. What are the major issues? Is freedom of navigation at risk?, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1291685
