This paper examines the role of key conflict elements such as solidarity among disagreeing groups and partisan foreign intervention in the complexification of the Libyan conflict. Incorporating evidentiary events along with a comparative application of different conflict theories (ripeness theory, instrumentalism, primordialism, protracted social conflict and constructivism), this paper argues that ideational factors top merely material factors in the Libyan conflict and no permanent solution can be achieved without changing people's socially constructed identities and world view.
Abstract
This paper examines the role of key conflict elements such as solidarity among disagreeing groups and partisan foreign intervention in the complexification of the Libyan conflict. Incorporating evidentiary events along with a comparative application of different conflict theories (ripeness theory, instrumentalism, primordialism, protracted social conflict and constructivism), this paper argues that ideational factors top merely material factors in the Libyan conflict and no permanent solution can be achieved without changing people 's socially constructed identities and world view.
Keywords: Libyan conflict, conflict resolution, primordialism, ripeness theory, constructivism, protracted social conflict, instrumentalism
Introduction
Libya’s civil war has become an increasingly important transnational security issue. It is related in different ways to Jihadism in Africa, illegal migration towards southern Europe and has become a competition field for foreign interventions. Libya, the oil rich country, under Gaddafi was among rare countries offering generous funding to their students to attend world’s finest schools like the London School of Economics. Such schools themselves received generous donations from the Gaddafi regime (The Guardian, 2011). Libya has changed after the NATO backed Arab Spring from a country with free education and gender equality, free medical care, largest irrigation plants and housing access guaranteed as a human right (Gwaambuka, 2016). It is today a war zone occupied by two failed states that are a threat to their people and the nations around. This makes every attempt to understand the conflict resolution in Libya important not only as an academic piece, but equally important as a tool in the hands of those exploring the Libyan conflict seeking a variety of mitigating ideas. In an attempt to come up with mitigating ideas, this paper tries to answer the question why a resolution for the ongoing conflict in Libya seems impossible? In the answers that this papers will suggest lie the prospects for recommendations of a possible path towards stability in Libya.
Solidarity Map and Conflict Escalation
The West seems not to learn any lessons from Afghanistan where supporting Jihadi factions against former USSR led to religious radicalization in the political life that sent the country back to the medieval ages. The willingness to support any group -regardless of its ideological background- that can overthrow Gaddafi in 2011 begot a situation where Islamist and Jihadi groups found a new nest in North Africa. After the NATO backed invasion of Libya by different armed militias, the country woke up to witness the birth of the interim government of national accord (GNA) with allies such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi militias as well as different Jihadi affiliates (Mezran, 2021). In the 2012 parliamentary elections in Libya, secular independent groups under the banner of the National Forces Alliance won 64 seats. The
Brotherhood’s Justice and Construction Party won 34 seats, with dozens of independent sympathizers. Salafi candidates won 27 seats. Neither Islamists among themselves cooperated in parliament nor did they cooperate with the already divided secular and independent parliamentary block (Ibid). The representatives of the nation of Libya after Gaddafi had a fractured national solidarity whereby each group expressed solidarity within its own bubble. In this situation, each group was galvanized to act against the other resulting in a weak government. Solidarity is a key weapon in conflict in the sense that groups with solidarity are more capable of mobilizing and fighting (Collins, 2012, p. 2). At the micro-foundational level, the conflict in Libya after the fall of Gaddafi was set to grow. Group solidarity, willingness to sacrifice one’s self, polarizing speech and symbols, feeling threatened and mutual focus through common action are elements that scholars consider key in the creation of an atmosphere of conflict (Collins, 2012, p. 3). Applying this to the political scene in Libya after 2012, group solidarity replaced national solidarity and divisions occurred in the lines of Islamists as well as seculars. The willingness to sacrifice fitted well the concept of Jihad shared by both Salafi groups and the Muslim Brotherhood. Both Islamists and secular members of parliament felt threatened and each group had focused on and took action against the other. The 200 members of the parliament that were supposed to lay the foundation of democracy and national unity constituted themselves the nucleus of a conflict that will develop later.
The failure in the reconstruction project in Libya due to divisive partisan politics led to a lower voter turnout that dropped from 61 to 42 percent in the 2014 election. In 2012 The Muslim Brotherhood’s Justice and Construction Party won 34 seats alongside Salafis that won 27 seats. In 2014, however, the Brotherhood secured 25 of the 200 seats while Salafi groups only won a few (Mezran, 2021). The house of representatives (RoH) faced criticism from both secular politicians, who accused it of having links to extremists, and Salafis, who questioned its commitment to Islamic principles. The year 2014 also marked the infestation of ISIS in the Libyan territories, the secular groups being forced by different Islamist groups to flee Tripoli and the launch of “Operation Dignity” by General Khalifa Haftar, leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA) in the east who aimed to rid the country of Jihadi groups and all forms of terrorism and extremism (Ibid). Conflicts escalate when group solidarity and ideological polarization succeed in the mobilization of material resources to commit atrocities, force out neutrals and seek allies -domestic and foreign (Collins, 2012, p. 8). The Libyan conflict reached that stage in 2014 with the increasing tensions between Islamists the west of the country and General Haftar in the east.
Division and sporadic confrontations continued until October 2020, as military representatives from the LNA and pro-GNA armed forces sign a ceasefire agreement in Geneva, promising to withdraw foreign mercenaries and reopen closed transit routes across front lines (Reuters, 2021). Libya’s electoral commission started registering presidential candidates with a projected first round on December 24, and a second-round runoff and parliamentary elections to begin 52 days of later (Ibid). This apparent de-escalation can be explained using William Zartman’s “ripeness” theory. Zartman’s Four elements of this theory are: mutually hurting stalemate (MHS), recent or impending catastrophe, perception of a way out and a valid spokesman (Frank, 2015, p. 116). With over 7 years of fighting battle after battle, military and civilian casualties on both sides and foreign support that guarantees no end to the war in the horizon, the Libyan conflict has entered the de-escalation phase that many hope that it culminates in fair presidential and parliamentary elections in 2022 bringing peace and stability to the country.
Foreign Intervention
A proxy war in Libya was formed after a number of foreign powers started intervening in the conflict to defend their ideological and economic interests. Al-Sarraj’s administration is the west of Libya backed by the U.N. and Western powers including the U.S., but mainly relies on Turkey, Qatar and Italy. In the east of Libya, General Haftar enjoys the support of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Russia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and France (Weise, 2020). It is understandable that Islamists could enjoy the Western support as there is a history of Western countries’ cooperation with Islamism and even Jihadism to secure their vital interest interests such as the case in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. It is also understandable that countries that have historically fought against Islamism would support General Haftar. Countries such as Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood after the assassination of president Sadat, and Russia and the fight against Jihadism in Chechnya. Foreign powers set the stage for conflict escalation in Libya and left a constellation of armed groups posing threats to domestic and regional security. Federica Saini Fasanotti posits that despite the fact that the ceasefire agreement -between Libya’s opposing factions signed in October 2020- has provided the opportunity for U.N.-backed political talks, deeply rooted socio-political tensions exacerbated by foreign actors remain a serious challenge for diplomatic solutions. The newly appointed U.N. Special Representative for Libya Jan Kubis, she added, faces an extraordinary difficult set of tasks (Feltman, Fasanotti, Freer, Alaaldin, & Baev, 2021). Pavel Baev contends that Russia’s reliance on the Wagner mercenaries’ (Russians) -mainly funded by UAE- exposes its interest in manipulating the conflict in favor of its interest rather than ending the war (Ibid). But when General Haftar besieged Tripoli and Turkey decided to back the besieged Government of National Accord (GNA) in early 2020, the stalled offensive turned into a disorganized retreat leading to an unofficial deal between Russia and Turkey that froze hostilities and allowed the squadron of Russian fighters deployed to provide air support to the Wagner forces, which retain control over several oil fields, to remain idle (Ibid). Invoking the aforementioned Zartman’s “ripeness” theory describing the mutually hurting stalemate as a point in which the parties to a conflict believe it is in their best interest to negotiate, this point in the Libyan conflict proxy war happened when Russian backed forces reached a stalemate with Western backed forces when Tripoli was besieged.
By late 2018, Libyan and international leaders met in Italy to end the political gridlock. While all parties seemed to support a U.N. plan for elections, the proliferation of weapons and organized crime hurt the Libyan economy (Rowan, 2019). In 2021, the HoR approved a second law for a parliamentary election and the electoral commission started to registering candidates including first round presidential elections followed by the 2nd round 52 days later (Reuters, 2021). Due to disputes regarding the rules governing the election, the eligibility of the main candidates and the eventual powers of the next president and parliament, the elections were postponed to 2022 (Aljazeera, 2021). In early 2022, interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah called for a constitution to be established before holding the delayed presidential and parliamentary elections (France24, 2022). Besides independent candidates, most notable presidential candidates are interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid, General Haftar and Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of former Libyan Leader Muamar Gaddafi. For the time being, although less violence is occurring in some Islamist held pockets, political differences continue mainly between Haftar and the GNA as hope continues to exist in future constitutional agreements and the holding of democratic elections.
Theoretical Perspectives
The Libyan conflict was a result of a revolution of opportunity and the most relevant explanation is the one offered by the constructivist approach to be discussed subsequently. The primordialist account relies on a concept of kinship between members of an ethnic group and argues that this kinship makes it possible for ethnic groups to think in terms of family resemblances (Bin Mohamad, 2015, p. 89). This suggests that some sort of tribalism where family lines are strong could have played a role dividing the Libyans. Instrumentalism highlights the role played by community leaders, not necessarily blood-connected, who use their cultural groups as sites of mass mobilization (Ibid). In the effort to topple the Gaddafi regime in 2011, fighters from all parties expressed their willingness to have a free and democratic country. The idea to change the regimes embraced by all parties involved in the Libyan revolution explains that tribalism and ideological affiliation can be inferior to a higher goal. Therefore, it is possible that the Libyan conflict ends if the parties in the conflict believe in the new constitution or elections in the same way they believed in overthrowing the Gaddafi regime. Edward Azar’s theory of protracted social conflict suggests that ethnic conflict often translated into violent struggle by communal groups for such basic needs as security, recognition and acceptance, fair access to political institution and economic participation (Bin Mohamad, 2015, p. 90). The conflict in Libya cannot be understood in the context of ethnicity, nor can it be understood in the context of community marginalization. As discussed earlier, Libya under Gaddafi was in fact run by national committees headed by Gaddafi. Basic needs were never an issue of concern in the Libyan situation. The Libyan revolution could only fit the description of a revolution of convenience encouraged by Western countries with devastating consequences.
Constructivism focuses on the importance of ideational factors that are historically and socially constructed in understanding the behavior of political actors in international relations (Finnemore & Sikkink, 2001). The constructivist perspective, thereof, provides a reasonable explanation on how broader ideational factors top merely material factors -although material factors contribute to the construct. The constructivist explanation supersedes single factor explanations such as in the case of primordialism and kinship, as well as the case of instrumentalism and community leaders. From a constructivist perspective, there needs to be a predominant Libyan perception that the path to a better future is to submit to democratic principles for the conflict to end and for the country to move forward.
Conclusion and Recommendations
In the attempt to explain why a resolution for the ongoing conflict in Libya seems impossible, this paper hovered over key defining events in the Libyan conflict. The fast and unexpected downfall of the Gaddafi regime left a power vacuum that led to the proliferation of different armed groups including terrorist organizations. This situation attracted foreign powers that came to protect and expand their ideological and economic interests. The causes of the conflict cannot be defined in the context of some classical conflict analysis theories such as primordialism and instrumentalism. The broader constructivist analysis not only concords with the Libyan events but also provides hope for a path to resolution. Overthrowing Gaddafi would not be possible without the ideational construct in which all anti-Gaddafi factions found unity in perceiving the necessity to remove his regime. If the Libyan factions succeed in building and sharing an ideational construct the elements of which will view reconstruction, democratization and modernization as an integral part of the national project, a sustainable resolution will then be achievable. It is true that foreign powers exacerbated the Libyan conflict, yet, material resources mobilization to different factions alone cannot be the only factor that determines the making or breaking of a resolution. Material factors, however, contribute in affecting the formation of the aforementioned construct. Based on this analysis, this paper recommends the following that can lead to and does not impede the development of the needed construct for a permanent and sustainable resolution in Libya:
1- Foreign powers involved in Libya should negotiate diplomatic mechanisms worked through Libyan institutions to protect their interests using treaties and agreements rather than proxy wars.
2- The U.N, using its existing institutions, should give Libya access to the resources needed in the development and modernization programs.
3- The international community should encourage elections and support only governments that respect human rights, secure access to political and economic participation for all Libyans.
4- The international community should develop a plan to disarm all militias and maintain a unified national army.
5- Religious and other forms of extremism should be completely banned from the political scene.
Bibliography
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Frequently asked questions
What is the main topic of this text?
This text examines the Libyan conflict, its resolution challenges, and the role of factors like solidarity, foreign intervention, and ideological perspectives in shaping the conflict.
What are the key keywords associated with this paper?
The keywords are Libyan conflict, conflict resolution, primordialism, ripeness theory, constructivism, protracted social conflict, and instrumentalism.
What is the central question this paper attempts to answer?
The paper tries to answer why a resolution for the ongoing conflict in Libya seems impossible and explores potential paths toward stability.
How does solidarity play a role in the Libyan conflict?
The breakdown of national solidarity into group solidarity among various factions after Gaddafi's fall, including Islamists and seculars, escalated the conflict. This division weakened the government and led to confrontations.
What is the significance of foreign intervention in the Libyan conflict?
Foreign powers, supporting different factions based on ideological and economic interests, have turned Libya into a proxy war, exacerbating the conflict and creating a constellation of armed groups.
What is Zartman's "ripeness" theory and how does it apply to the Libyan conflict?
Zartman's theory suggests that conflicts de-escalate when parties reach a mutually hurting stalemate (MHS) and perceive a way out. The Libyan conflict, after years of fighting and foreign support guaranteeing no end, entered a de-escalation phase as parties considered negotiation.
What theoretical perspectives are used to analyze the Libyan conflict?
The paper uses primordialism, instrumentalism, protracted social conflict theory, and constructivism. It argues that the constructivist approach, emphasizing ideational factors, offers the most relevant explanation.
What is the role of constructivism in understanding the Libyan conflict?
Constructivism focuses on socially constructed ideas and perceptions. The paper argues that a shared Libyan perception of democratization and modernization as a national project is essential for resolving the conflict.
What recommendations does the paper offer for a sustainable resolution in Libya?
The paper recommends that foreign powers negotiate through Libyan institutions, the UN provide resources for development, the international community support human rights-respecting governments, a plan to disarm militias and unify the national army, and a ban on extremism from the political scene.
Who are some of the key presidential candidates mentioned in the text?
The presidential candidates mentioned include interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah, General Haftar, and Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of former Libyan Leader Muamar Gaddafi.
What factors led to the postponement of the Libyan elections?
The elections were postponed to 2022 due to disputes regarding the rules governing the election, the eligibility of main candidates, and the powers of the next president and parliament.
Why does the paper believe that the concept of tribalism is less relevant to the Libyan conflict?
During the revolution of 2011, fighters from all parties expressed their willingness to have a free and democratic country, suggesting that tribalism and ideological affiliation can be inferior to a higher goal.
- Quote paper
- Yasser Harrak Srifi (Author), 2022, Conflict Resolution in Libya. Solidarity among Disagreeing Groups and Partisan Foreign Intervention, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1301420
