The thesis draws on the field of the sociology of expectations to highlight the role of shared societal expectations of AI in the diffusion of new technological innovation. It adds to the list of globally shared societal expectations of AI that are described in past research and publications, and analyses the communication of these expectations in twelve National AI Strategies. Lending from communication studies, lexical units that indicate positive or negative expectations regarding this disruptive technology are sought out to arrange countries according to their country-specific vision of AI. They are grouped according to whether they distribute a confident, reserved, or impartial vision of AI.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. The State of Research
3. A Short History of AI Development
4. The Role of Expectations in the Innovation Process of AI
4.1. Introduction to the Sociology of Expectations
4.2. Functions of Expectations in the Societal Discourse
4.2.1. Performativity
4.2.2. Normativity
4.3. Factors Influencing Societal Expectations
4.3.1. Culture
4.3.2. Media
4.3.3. Institutional Factors
4.4. Unifying Expectations Through Government Communication
4.5. Repercussions of Message Sidedness in Government Communication
5. Design and Method
5.1. Qualitative Content Analysis for the Analysis of Strategic Policy Papers
5.2. Choice of National AI Strategies
5.3. Procedure of the Analysis: Category Formation
5.4. Procedure of the Analysis: Indicating Lexical Units
5.5. Grouping of National AI Strategies: Confident, Reserved, Impartial Perspective
5.6. Quality of the Analysis
6. Findings
6.1. Deduced Expectation-Categories from the Literature
6.1.1. Positive Expectations
6.1.2. Negative Expectations
6.2. Induced Expectation-Categories from the National AI Strategies
6.2.1. Positive Expectations
6.2.2. Negative Expectations
6.3. Evaluation of Communicated Expectations in the National AI Strategies
6.3.1. Global Positive Expectation-Categories
6.3.2. Global Negative Expectation-Categories
6.3.3. Country-Specific Expectation-Categories
6.3.4. Country-Specific Communication of Expectations
6.4. Concluding Assessment and Grouping of the National AI Strategies
7. Conclusion
Objectives and Core Themes
This thesis investigates how artificial intelligence (AI) is conceptualized and communicated within various national policy frameworks. By utilizing the sociology of expectations, it aims to uncover the diverse hopes, fears, and strategic visions governments project regarding AI, while also examining how these visions are linguistically constructed to foster public acceptance and advance national interests.
- Sociology of expectations in the context of emerging technologies.
- Comparative analysis of twelve National AI Strategies.
- Qualitative content analysis of positive vs. negative framing in government communication.
- The impact of cultural and institutional factors on societal expectations of AI.
- Classification of national visions into confident, reserved, or impartial perspectives.
Excerpt from the Book
1. Introduction
Feared by many and charged with exaggerated ideas by others, Artificial Intelligence (AI) as we know it today is an increasingly often debated technology. Although already imagined by humans centuries ago in the form of the Homunculus, AI in the 21st century is still discussed as a relatively new technology with persisting disagreement among the public about what this disruptive technology actually embodies. Most people today have an idea in mind when faced with the term Artificial Intelligence. Few are, however, familiar enough with the technology as to not blend realistic technological possibilities with misconceptions derived from popular culture.
Especially with the recent improvements in computing capabilities and what is known as Machine Learning (ML), the public discussion has picked up since 2009, and what can be described as an AI arms race between nations has emerged globally (Fast and Horvitz 2017). With countries striving to gain the upper hand in research and development in AI, it has increasingly become important to assure the public on the benefits of further developing this promising technology; the diffusion of innovation and therewith the success of this technology depends on its social acceptance, after all. Society does not only affect the marketability of new technologies but at the same time is the driver and creative mind behind newfound ideas since innovation is steered by public sentiment and vision, and technology is socially shaped and negotiated (Surry and Baker III 2016; Mosemghvdlishvili and Jansz 2013).
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Outlines the research focus on communicated expectations of AI and the significance of social acceptance for technological diffusion.
2. The State of Research: Reviews existing literature on the sociology of expectations and previous studies concerning AI perceptions.
3. A Short History of AI Development: Traces the evolution of AI from historical myths to modern technical developments and recurring boom-and-bust cycles.
4. The Role of Expectations in the Innovation Process of AI: Introduces the theoretical framework, detailing how expectations function perfomatively and normatively, and how they are mediated through government communication.
5. Design and Method: Describes the qualitative content analysis approach used to evaluate twelve National AI Strategies and define the classification scheme.
6. Findings: Presents both literature-deduced and document-induced expectation categories and evaluates how these are communicated across different countries.
7. Conclusion: Synthesizes the core findings, addresses study limitations, and suggests implications for future research and policy.
Keywords
Artificial Intelligence, Sociology of Expectations, National AI Strategies, Government Communication, Qualitative Content Analysis, Innovation, Societal Discourse, Technology Diffusion, Policy Frameworks, Framing, Public Perception, Global AI Race, Ethical AI, Technological Readiness, Social Acceptance.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this study examine?
The research examines the communicated societal expectations surrounding Artificial Intelligence as presented in the official National AI Strategies of twelve different nations.
What are the central themes discussed?
Central themes include the sociology of expectations, the performative power of government visions for AI, the role of culture and media in shaping public opinion, and the strategic communication efforts by governments to balance hope and fear in technological policy.
What is the primary objective of this thesis?
The primary goal is to analyze how governments attempt to unify and steer public expectations about AI, and to determine whether these countries promote a confident, reserved, or impartial vision of the technology.
Which methodology is employed?
The study conducts a qualitative content analysis based on the work of Philipp Mayring, supplemented by a mixed-method approach that utilizes keyword filtering and frequency analysis of lexical units to classify policy documents.
What does the main section of the document cover?
The main part of the thesis reviews the theoretical sociological background, evaluates existing research on AI perceptions, details the methodological approach for document analysis, and presents the empirical findings regarding positive and negative expectation categories found in national policy papers.
Which keywords define this work?
Key terms include sociology of expectations, AI strategies, innovation, public framing, and technological acceptance.
Is there a correlation between culture and AI perception?
Yes, the study notes that cultural backgrounds and historical national imprints significantly influence how AI is perceived and communicated, leading to varied national approaches to risk and reward.
How does the role of the media impact these strategies?
The thesis argues that media representations—ranging from science fiction to newspaper reporting—heavily shape the public's understanding of AI, which forces governments to adopt specific communication strategies to manage expectations and ensure social acceptance.
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- Julia Tscherpel (Autor), 2021, Between Heightened Confidence and Anxious Reservations, Múnich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1357471
