Water is the base of all human existence. First of all for drinking, food production and hygiene, but also for all other developments of contemporaries’ human society. The United Nations has estimated world population would grow from 6 to 9,3 billion between 50 years and beside this “people are getting wealthier” . Thus can be no doubt of a rising global demand for freshwater, but climate change and other environmental factors will lead to short run of water in certain regions. In consequence water can be predicted to become a security issue and a reason for conflict, as it even may be today in some regions.
Only 2,5% of all water on the earth is freshwater. 70% of this freshwater is frozen at North and South Pole, 29% are bonded not accessible for mankind as “soil moisture” and in “underground aquifers” . About 1% (0,007% of all water) is useable for mankind, but “water is renewable resource” . This numbers underline the importance of the question, if it is possible supplying all humans with enough water or if water may lead to conflict.
Chapter 2 will discuss the questions of waters potential as a reason for dispute, conflict or peaceful development. Dispute is to understand as a political issue while conflict could further mean use of other elements than political including force. Connected to this Chapter 3 will analyse how water disputes and fertility, mortality and migration relate to each other. This is important because developments of the last three factors are highly dependent on fresh water accessibility. As examples for today’s water disputes two case studies on Israel/Jordan/Syria/Lebanon and Turkey/Syria/Iraq will be made.
Even if such an answer is difficult to make, chapter 5 will try to answer the main question if water will become a major security problem in the 21st century and if water disputes will lead to conflicts. In context of population growth and climate change this will be an important topic for 21st centuries politics.
The terms `conflict´ or `major conflict´ do necessarily contain war or violence. Water disputes could possibly lead to violent conflict, but when the term `conflict´ is used here it means conflict in general and not specifically war or violence.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Potentials of water for conflict and peace
2.1. Conflict potential
2.2. Peace potential
3. Effects between water disputes and fertility, mortality and migration.
4. Current water disputes – Lebanon/Syria/Jordan/Israel and Turkey/Syria/Iraq
4.1. Lebanon/Syria/Jordan/Israel
4.2. Turkey/Syria/Iraq
5. Water: Global rising problem in the 21st century?
6. Conclusion
Research Objectives and Core Themes
The work investigates whether water scarcity and disputes will evolve into a primary security challenge in the 21st century, considering the compounding effects of climate change and rapid population growth. It aims to determine if these factors act as catalysts for conflict or potential drivers for international cooperation.
- The nexus between freshwater accessibility, population growth, and global security.
- The distinction between water as a tool for peace versus a catalyst for violent conflict.
- Case studies of transboundary river disputes in the Middle East.
- The socio-economic implications of water inequality between developed and developing nations.
- The impact of climate change on future water stability and migration.
Excerpt from the Book
4.1. Lebanon/Syria/Jordan/Israel
The Jordan River and its and frontal and side flows contribute to the freshwater supply of the four states named above and of the Palestinian territories. The Dan River is the only frontal river starting in Israel but crosses the Israeli occupied Syrian territories. The Hasbani starts in the Lebanon and enters the Jordan River in north Israel. The Banias is starting on the Israeli occupied Golan Mountains. The Yarmouk starting in Syria becomes the borderline of Syria and the state of Jordan until entering the Jordan River. The Yakob is starting in Jordan.
Although Israel has a water agreement with the state Jordan, the question according to all five parties who is allowed to take how many water out of the river system is still virulent. One of the reasons why Israel is still occupying the Golan Mountains is the water of the Banias. If Israel would hand the Golan back, Syria would become able “to divert the Banias stream” as it tried in the past and thereby affect Israeli water supplies significantly. Israel has available 1,8 billion cubic meters water per year, but the country consumes 2,0 billion cubic meters and the 200 million cubic meters difference are bought from Turkey. This numbers illustrate how stressed the Israeli water supplies are, which means the country will not be able to accept any water losses. This must not necessarily be a reason for conflict, particularly as Israel is cooperating with Jordan about water as named above, but could be a barrier towards peace mainly in the cases of Syria and Palestine. The rising fertility in the region will increase this problem. Furthermore in 2002 Israel had “an average of 348 litres of water per person per day”, while a Palestinian only had 70 litres per day. An ongoing inequality of Israelis using five times more water than Palestinians would possibly not be accepted by last ones and by the Arab countries during negotiations.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: The introduction establishes the vital role of freshwater for humanity and outlines the rising security challenges posed by climate change and population growth.
2. Potentials of water for conflict and peace: This chapter analyzes how water scarcity acts as a catalyst for both political conflict and, conversely, as a necessity that forces regional cooperation.
3. Effects between water disputes and fertility, mortality and migration.: This section examines the interdependencies between demographic developments and water accessibility, highlighting how scarcity drives migration and impacts health.
4. Current water disputes – Lebanon/Syria/Jordan/Israel and Turkey/Syria/Iraq: This chapter provides empirical case studies of transboundary water management in the Middle East, specifically focusing on competing claims over major river systems.
5. Water: Global rising problem in the 21st century?: This chapter projects future risks, arguing that environmental degradation and resource competition will likely escalate water into a major global political issue.
6. Conclusion: The conclusion synthesizes the findings, emphasizing that water security is a long-term process requiring multilateral political effort to avoid future conflicts.
Keywords
Water Security, Transboundary Rivers, Climate Change, Population Growth, Conflict, Cooperation, Middle East, Resource Scarcity, Hydropolitics, Sustainability, Migration, Freshwater Management, International Relations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this publication?
The work investigates the geopolitical and social implications of water scarcity, analyzing how it contributes to regional instability and global security concerns in the 21st century.
What are the primary thematic fields covered?
The text covers environmental policy, demographic trends, international water law, and the intersection of climate change with resource management.
What is the main research question of this study?
The study asks whether water will become a major security threat in the 21st century and whether current disputes over water resources are likely to culminate in violent conflict.
Which scientific methodology is employed?
The author uses a qualitative analysis approach, examining secondary academic literature and performing case studies on specific transboundary river systems in the Middle East.
What topics are discussed in the main body?
The main body treats the dual nature of water as a source of peace or conflict, the impact of demographic shifts on demand, and specific case studies involving Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq.
Which keywords best describe this research?
The research is best characterized by terms like water security, hydropolitics, international cooperation, climate change, and resource-driven conflict.
Why is the Golan Heights occupation significant in the context of this paper?
The author identifies control over the Banias stream as a critical water-related factor behind the continued occupation of the Golan Heights by Israel.
How does the author view the inequality of water usage between countries?
The author highlights the disparity in per capita water consumption between developed and developing nations as a significant potential source of social tension and a challenge for future political diplomacy.
- Quote paper
- Felix Seidler (Author), 2009, Population and Security: Water disputes – on the way to a major global problem?, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/137602
