Why did the strategies of the Drug War implemented by the Mexican governments from 2006 to 2018 fail?
The so-called Drug War has now been raging in Mexico for almost 13 years. Ending the violence is one of the greatest challenges facing Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has been in office since December 2018. During the election campaign he had announced that he would fundamentally change the strategies of his predecessors Felipe Calderón, President from 2006 to 2012, and Enrique Peña Nieto, in office from 2012 to 2018 – away from chasing the heads of drug cartels with massive military action and towards anti-corruption measures and social programs. A change of direction was necessary because the strategies applied by Calderón and Peña Nieto had failed in the view of many experts as well as the literature.
In this paper, the strategies of governments from 2006 to 2018 and the reasons for their failure are analyzed. First, the theoretical foundations based on the literature on new wars, drug economies and state weakness are laid. Built on the theoretical discussion, three propositions are derived from the hypothesis “If the Mexican governments apply the wrong strategies, they will fail in the Drug War” to better analyze the qualitative research puzzle. The analysis is based on the three features “militarization and kingpin strategy“, “ongoing prohibitionist policies“ and “state weakness“, that serve as independent variables for the qualitative explanation of the failure in the Drug War.
The strategies and their outcomes are studied using academic literature, government documents, and official statistics. It is shown that Peña Nieto announced a change of course in the Drug War, but, in fact, continued like his predecessor. Therefore, the reasons for the failure of both strategies will be studied in combination, and the research question will be answered.
The main finding is that the implementing of the militarization and kingpin strategy, the ongoing drug prohibition and the persistent state weakness led to an increase in violence and in the power of the Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs), thus to failure in the Drug War.
The specialty of this work is that the strategies are analyzed using political science theories and concepts, such as those of new wars and state weakness.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Theory and hypotheses
2.1 Characteristics of new wars
2.2 Drug economies
2.3 State weakness
2.4 Hypotheses
3. Method and limitations
3.1 Qualitative research design
3.2 Discussion and limitations
4. Descriptive strategy analysis
4.1 Felipe Calderón’s strategy and outcomes
4.1.1 Focus on militarization
4.1.2 Increasing violence and increasing power of DTOs
4.2 Enrique Peña Nieto’s strategy and outcomes
4.2.1 Continuing with Calderón’s strategy
4.2.2 Further deterioration
4.3 Summary of the descriptive analysis
5. Causal explanation analysis
5.1 Militarization and kingpin strategy
5.2 Prohibition
5.3 State weakness
5.4 Proximity to the US
5.5 Summary of the causal explanation analysis
6. Conclusion
7. References
Research Objectives and Themes
This paper aims to analyze why the drug war strategies implemented by the Mexican governments between 2006 and 2018 failed, specifically focusing on the increasing violence and strengthening of drug trafficking organizations. The study explores the causal relationship between these government strategies and the deteriorating security situation using political science theories on state weakness and new wars.
- Theoretical evaluation of "new war" characteristics in the Mexican context.
- Impact of prohibitionist policies on drug cartel profitability and power.
- Analysis of the correlation between "kingpin" strategies and increased violence.
- Assessment of state weakness and endemic corruption as facilitators for criminal enterprise.
- Case study comparison of the administrations of Felipe Calderón and Enrique Peña Nieto.
Excerpt from the Book
4.1.1 Focus on militarization
When Felipe Calderón took office as the President of Mexico in December 2006, the country was already confronted with increasing violence and a lack of state control over criminal organizations (Rosen and Zepeda 2017, 55-56). Shortly after his inauguration, Calderón announced that he would launch a military offensive with several thousand soldiers against the DTOs (Kan 2016, 8). In the national development plan Plan Nacional al Desarrollo, the government also declared a “fight against organized crime” (Presidencia de la República de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos 2007, 33), which must be waged “with all available means” (Presidencia de la República de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos 2007, 46). The government justified it as necessary by stating that “the drug trade […] has become a major threat to national security. The revenues from drug trafficking give enormous power to criminal groups to establish various forms of transport, effective weapons, and advanced communication systems, as well as equipment that is often better than that of the police forces.” (Presidencia de la República de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos 2007, 58)
According to the political scientist César Morales Oyarvide, the drug cartels were seen and fought as "new internal enemies" (Morales Oyarvide 2011, 14), as it is characteristic of new wars. During Calderón's administration, up to 96,000 soldiers were engaged in the fight, almost 40 percent of the active personnel (International Crisis Group 2013, 16).
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Outlines the persistence of the Drug War in Mexico and introduces the research question regarding the failure of strategies between 2006 and 2018.
2. Theory and hypotheses: Establishes foundations using theories on new wars, drug economies, and state weakness to derive three core propositions for analysis.
3. Method and limitations: Explains the qualitative research design based on hypothesis testing and details the limitations inherent in the study's scope.
4. Descriptive strategy analysis: Examines the specific security approaches and failures of the Calderón and Peña Nieto administrations.
5. Causal explanation analysis: Analyzes the causal links between militarization, prohibition, state weakness, and the systemic failure to contain DTOs.
6. Conclusion: Summarizes findings, suggesting that long-term institutional strengthening is required over military approaches, and notes the early challenges facing the López Obrador administration.
Keywords
Mexican Drug War, Felipe Calderón, Enrique Peña Nieto, Drug Trafficking Organizations, Militarization, Kingpin Strategy, Prohibitionist Policies, State Weakness, Corruption, New Wars, Organized Crime, Violence, Security, Qualitative Analysis, Public Security
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fundamental focus of this research paper?
The paper examines why the anti-drug strategies employed by Mexican governments from 2006 to 2018 were unsuccessful in reducing violence and curbing the power of drug cartels.
What are the primary conceptual frameworks used in the analysis?
The study utilizes political science concepts, specifically the theory of "new wars", the economic dynamics of the illegal drug market, and the political science definition of state weakness.
What is the main objective or research question of this study?
The primary research question is: "Why did the strategies of the Drug War implemented by the Mexican governments from 2006 to 2018 fail?"
Which scientific methodology is employed to evaluate the hypotheses?
The paper employs a qualitative research design, utilizing an alternate hypothesis-testing method based on the principles of explanatory power and causal link analysis.
What core topics are addressed in the main body of the paper?
The main body covers the descriptive analysis of presidential strategies (Calderón and Peña Nieto), the theoretical roots of why these strategies were flawed, and the causal link between militarization, prohibition, and state fragility.
Which keywords best characterize the thematic landscape of the paper?
Key terms include Mexican Drug War, militarization, kingpin strategy, state weakness, corruption, and prohibitionist policies.
How does the "kingpin strategy" negatively impact the stability of the regions?
According to the text, the removal of high-level cartel bosses creates power vacuums, triggering violent internal competition among cartel remnants and leading to the fragmentation and geographic spread of criminal groups.
What role does the proximity to the United States play in the conflict?
The proximity is identified as a "location curse," where high demand for drugs in the US fuels Mexican production and transit, while the laxity of US gun laws facilitates the flow of weapons to Mexican cartels.
Why does the research suggest that social programs alone may be insufficient in the short term?
The paper acknowledges the long-term potential of socio-economic programs but notes that such strategies risk failure if they neglect the immediate necessity of addressing violent crime and enforcing security.
What is the identified relationship between drug prohibition and state corruption?
Prohibition increases the profitability of drugs, providing cartels with massive resources to bribe officials and undermine state institutions, thereby deepening the state's existing weaknesses.
- Quote paper
- Sandra Schaftner (Author), 2019, The Reasons for the Failure in the Mexican Drug War, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1380871
