The consequences of climate change to social, economical and environment are becoming the most concern issues of political, business and society leaders in both developed and developing countries. However, prediction of climate change impact becomes the concern among the scientists around the world. Uncertainties in climate prediction are the main obstacles for climate change mitigation and adaptation.The high level of uncertainties in climate changes prediction causes high risk in management action. The uncertainties can mean that the impact of climate change can be lower or higher than expected by scientists.The uncertainties derive from the range of socio-economic development scenarios, climate model projections, the downscaling of climate effects to local/regional scales, impacts assessments, and feedbacks from adaptation and mitigation activities. In addition, high level in uncertainties can increase the cost of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Moreover, setting up the priorities for conservation and management of biodiversity is the challenge for all the countries in the world because climate change may happen rapidly than the current prediction. This is not meant that it is impossible to set up the priorities for conservation and management under the uncertain impact of climate change. This essay will look into the conservation and management measures of biodiversity under the climate variability due to uncertainties in prediction. Then it will highlight some practical examples from both developed and under developed countries.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Conservation of biodiversity under uncertainty
3. Management of biodiversity under uncertainty
4. Conclusion
Objectives and Topics
The primary objective of this work is to explore effective conservation and management measures for biodiversity despite the inherent uncertainties associated with climate change predictions. It examines how adaptive management and local strategies can mitigate risks even when predictive models fluctuate.
- Impacts of climate change on global biodiversity and ecosystem resilience.
- Challenges posed by predictive uncertainties in climate change modeling.
- Integration of biodiversity conservation into regional planning and ecological networks.
- Application of adaptive management and traditional knowledge at the grassroots level.
Excerpt from the Book
3. Management of biodiversity under uncertainty
Adaptive management which focuses on the alternative hypotheses and gap in knowledge of predicting climate change has to be taken into account in order to reduce the consequences of uncertainties (Peterson et al, 1997; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Additionally, robust strategies provide the appropriate framework to better management of uncertainties in climate change prediction (Worldbank, 2009).The adaption strategies to manage climate impact variability can be set from local to global level. According to Peterson et al (1997), the adaptive management plan to manage ecosystem play a major role in climate context since it involves with learning by doing process. The idea of learning by doing may be an effective tool for both scientists and decision makers to make an ongoing update management plan for climate change impacts. For example, Cambodia is one of the most venerable nations in Southeast Asia due to climate change impact on agriculture, coastal zones, water resources and health (UNDP, 2008).To deal with the uncertainties of water level change in Tonel Sap Lake of Mekong River, rural communities in Cambodia have figured out the strategies to cope with water level change such seasonally migrate to high ground, build their houses on stilts (5-6 m above ground level) and establish floating villages on the lake during high water season (Berkes, 2007). Indeed, local knowledge plays an important role in understanding and adapts to the impact of climate at grass root level. According to FAO (2009c), traditional knowledge plays a significant part in solving uncertainties in climate change impact. For instance, indigenous people have used biodiversity as a buffer in the form of plague against climate change variability. To cope with changing climate, they grow different kind of crops and varieties (crop diversity) which respond differently to drought and flood (FAO, 2009c).Moreover, climate change has sensitive impacts on forest ecosystem on the European mountain forests especially increasing drought condition (FAO, 2009b). This effect can be mitigated by planting trees with wider spacing and practicing proper tending and thinning (Spiecker, 2003). Another alternative option which suggested by Peterson et al (1997) is policy-oriented science which try to address uncertainties rather than eliminate them because not all the uncertainties can be reduced by further research.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Outlines the critical challenges posed by climate change uncertainties for global leaders and the necessity of establishing conservation priorities despite these predictive gaps.
2. Conservation of biodiversity under uncertainty: Discusses how climate change impacts ecosystems, species distribution, and migration, and highlights the role of ecological networks in reducing these risks.
3. Management of biodiversity under uncertainty: Explores adaptive management and the integration of local and traditional knowledge as essential frameworks for managing biodiversity in volatile environments.
4. Conclusion: Summarizes that while climate change is a major threat, achievable and flexible strategies combined with scientific and indigenous knowledge provide a path forward.
Keywords
Climate change, biodiversity conservation, uncertainty, adaptive management, ecosystem services, ecological networks, indigenous knowledge, environmental policy, climate impact, sustainability, habitat fragmentation, resilience, local adaptation, crop diversity, fishery management.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this research?
The research examines the difficulty of setting biodiversity conservation priorities in the face of uncertain climate change predictions and explores how management practices can adapt to these challenges.
What are the primary themes discussed?
The central themes include the limitations of climate models, the impact of climate change on species migration, the implementation of ecological networks, and the value of community-based traditional knowledge.
What is the main objective of the paper?
The objective is to argue that predictive uncertainty does not prevent the establishment of effective conservation measures and to provide strategies for managing biodiversity under variable climate conditions.
Which scientific methodology is primarily discussed?
The paper emphasizes the "adaptive management" approach, which focuses on "learning by doing" and utilizing alternative hypotheses to update management plans continuously.
What topics are covered in the main body?
The main body covers the environmental consequences of climate change, the role of regional planning in conservation, and practical management strategies used by both developed and developing nations.
Which keywords best characterize this work?
Key terms include climate change, biodiversity, uncertainty, adaptive management, ecological networks, and local traditional knowledge.
How does local knowledge contribute to biodiversity management according to the text?
Local knowledge, such as the agricultural practices in rural Cambodia or indigenous buffer techniques, helps communities build resilience and manage resources effectively in response to unpredictable climate patterns.
What role does the Mekong River region play in this study?
The Mekong region serves as a specific case study to illustrate how rural communities adapt to water-level variability through housing adaptations and migration strategies.
- Citar trabajo
- Donal Yeang (Autor), 2009, Do Uncertainties in Climate Change Predictions Make It Impossible to Set Priorities for Conservation and Management of Biodiversity?, Múnich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/140603
