Strategic Foresight is a relatively young field of research. Although, plenty of different definitions, recommended methods or process approaches exist. Based on a literature review, this thesis tries to systemize the literature to shed light onto the current state of research.
Strategic Foresight, as a part of the strategic management, should be strongly related to one of the basic models of strategic management. The targeted object will be building a bridge to one of the most popular and practical models invented by Porter. Still today, there are no approaches that combine Porter’s Five Forces with Strategic Foresight.
In the literature, often the impact of complexity and dynamics is discussed in regard to Strategic Foresight, but a certain model to evaluate and measure complexity does not exist yet. Neither organizational nor environmental complexity has been included in current Strategic Foresight literature. After analyzing, systemizing, defining, and merging both models by dint of Strategic Foresight considerations, the development of a complexity model will accomplish
the attempt to provide a holistic approach to measure complexity in regard to Strategic Foresight for further research.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Research Gap
1.3 Structure of the Thesis
2. Results from the Literature Review
2.1 Evolution of Strategic Foresight
2.2 Components within Strategic Foresight
2.3 Strategic Foresight Methods
2.4 Role of Information
2.5 Process of Strategic Foresight
3. Conceptual Approach for Systemizing Porter’s Five Forces
3.1 Strategic Alignment via Porter
3.2 Porter’s Five Forces
3.3 Strategic Foresight and Porter’s Five Forces – A Synthesis
4. Management of Complexity according to Strategic Foresight
4.1 Theoretical Basics of Complexity
4.2 Models of Complexity
4.3 Applied Model of Complexity and Strategic Foresight – A Synthesis
5. Conclusion and Further Research
Research Objectives and Themes
This thesis aims to systemize existing literature on Strategic Foresight and integrate it with established strategic management frameworks, specifically Porter’s Five Forces and complexity theory, to provide a holistic model for strategic decision-making in turbulent environments.
- Systemization of the current state of Strategic Foresight research.
- Development of a bridge between Strategic Foresight and Porter’s Five Forces.
- Creation of a multidimensional complexity model for organizations.
- Synthesis of Foresight, Competitive Strategy, and Complexity management.
- Practical implications for long-term strategic positioning.
Excerpt from the Book
1.1 Background
In the 1960s and early 1970s Royal Dutch Shell and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) developed several scenarios that addressed the risk of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sparking an oil crisis and ways in which such a crisis might be handeled. Based on the findings no dispositions have been made by Shell’s management with adapting behavior. In October 1973 the oil-exporting countries slowed their delivery rates hugely. This resulted in a price explosion from nearly three Dollars to twelve; almost 400 percentages Dollars. This caused a lot of suffering in industrial countries. None of the major oil companies, apart from Shell, was prepared for the oil price shock – “life as they knew it was changed forever”. Shell’s management was able to respond quickly and, over the next few years, they moved from one of the smallest of the seven major oil companies to the second in size and the first in profitability. The oil shock is considered to be the moment that gave birth to the era of foresight in strategy.
Due to Shell’s improved competitive position, other corporations started to focus to the relevance of strategic adjustments. For the first time, they paid attention to the future in a strategic manner and the acceleration affects their ambitions more than ever. Performance-related information and improved communication systems enhanced the market’s globalization, causing increased competition. Deregulation and liberalization compounded this trend. However, science and technology boosted the development of innovations at previously unknown speeds, with decreasing product lifecycles and increasing development times. To ensure success in the competitive marketplace, companies had to continuously develop and launch new products. Thus, the time frame for strategic and technological development had to become long-term oriented.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Provides an overview of the development of Strategic Foresight, the existing research gap, and the structural roadmap of the thesis.
2. Results from the Literature Review: Analyzes the historical evolution, core components, methodologies, and information requirements of the Strategic Foresight field.
3. Conceptual Approach for Systemizing Porter’s Five Forces: Explores the integration of Porter's competitive strategy model with the principles and processes of Strategic Foresight.
4. Management of Complexity according to Strategic Foresight: Examines complexity theory and introduces models for measuring both organizational and environmental complexity.
5. Conclusion and Further Research: Synthesizes the main findings and suggests future directions for empirical research into continuous foresight practices.
Keywords
Strategic Foresight, Porter's Five Forces, Complexity Management, Strategic Management, Competitive Intelligence, Technology Intelligence, Consumer Foresight, Environmental Scanning, Weak Signals, Business Strategy, Innovation Management, Organizational Complexity, Environmental Turbulence, Decision-making, Strategic Planning.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this thesis?
This work focuses on connecting the field of Strategic Foresight with established models of competitive strategy, specifically Porter's Five Forces, while addressing the underlying role of complexity in modern organizational environments.
What are the primary thematic fields covered?
The study covers the history and definition of Strategic Foresight, its specific components (Technology, Consumer, Political, and Competitive Intelligence), methodological approaches, and the role of information generation.
What is the ultimate goal of the research?
The goal is to develop a synthesis that allows organizations to effectively manage uncertainty and complexity by bridging foresight activities with their strategic planning and competitive positioning.
Which scientific methods are applied?
The thesis employs an extensive literature review to systemize concepts, followed by the development of a conceptual framework that merges Strategic Foresight with Porter’s Five Forces and complexity models.
What does the main body of the work address?
The main body examines the evolution of early warning systems into Strategic Foresight, analyzes various foresight methodologies, and details a multidimensional model to assess organizational and environmental complexity.
How would you characterize this work using keywords?
Key terms include Strategic Foresight, Porter's Five Forces, Complexity Management, Competitive Intelligence, and organizational strategy.
How does the author define Strategic Foresight in this context?
Strategic Foresight is defined as a third-generation system that builds on early warning and detection systems, incorporating strategic components to identify threats and opportunities and to formulate proactive reaction strategies.
What is the significance of the "Engine" in the proposed complexity model?
The "Engine" represents the core organizational culture and leadership required to fuel interactions between the company and its environment, serving as the internal hub for holistic strategic control.
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- Daniel Roy (Autor:in), 2009, Strategic Foresight and Porter’s Five Forces, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/171110
