At the start of the century the economy and society were faced with challenges and interdependences, which could originally be found in the progressing globalisation in the fragmentation of the world markets and the threatened environment. In the context of increasing global networks for successful accomplishment of these meaningful challenges of the future, a democratically legitimate policy, as well as a well prepared corresponding organisation of the company is required.
At first there was an overview of the development of globalisation with regards to the interdependences and challenges. Afterwards it was followed by an analysis of the restructuring of the East European economy in connection with the market economy and social problems, along with the resulting solution components.
Within the next two generations the world’s population will have almost doubled. In concrete terms this means that instead of there being six million people on the planet there will be twelve. For this reason the basic requirements necessary to satisfy this extremely high number of people means that in theory one has to try to increase production accordingly. However, the question arises whether the ecological system will thereby be overburdened or if the commodities can be distributed in such a way that it won’t threaten people’s existence.
In the next hundred years the world’s production will octuplicate. At the same time it will be guided by the expotential of the world’s national product growth based on the future population growth rate, and the income per head of population. The consequences of this development will mean an extreme shortage of resources and price increases, as well as placing a sustainable burden on the environment.
There will also be further problems in terms of technical progress development. Technical progress offers necessary chances, while at the same time it only consists of difficult assessable and difficult manageable risks. These problems of technical progress apply to the following areas:
Electronic communication Microbiology
Modern transportation means Weapons of mass destruction
Further global trends include increased international criminality, the expansion of new illnesses and the reappearance and expansion of old illnesses.
The growth of the world’s population along with the growth of the world’s production, as well as only difficult, or even non assessable outcomes of technology will lead to a distinct dynamic process for a set of global problems.
This set of global problems will result in the following future basic outcomes:
Difficult social shifts
Extreme strains on nature conservation
At the same time the number of poor people worldwide is increasing. The already existing divide between the winners and losers of this ecological expansion will continue to grow. The only possible remedy exists in a world social policy, which the market based dispersal policy can correct. The justifiable danger exists that when it is not counterbalanced in good time it will lead to a rise in social differences and an impoverishment of far reaching social crises, as well as leading to worsening ethical national tensions and conflicts between world regions and national groups. Furthermore, this could result in considerable mass migration.
Conditional factors such as wealth and poverty place additional strains on the environment. When a preventative composition for a global economy and environmental policy is not realised in good time, then the outcome could be a dangerous shortage and damage to the world’s resources, as well as environmental quality. The extent of resource productivity can be increased, and in this respect can lead to changing the consumer’s behaviour in protecting the non regenerative sustainable resources. In future if an adequate global environmental policy is not realised then a difficult ecological crisis could appear. Furthermore, this could lead to a difficult fight for resources and an intensification of social tensions.
Worldwide commodities and production ratios will be influenced by technological innovation. In addition the tempo and the direction of this process will not only be determined by the rational of society as a whole, but also by means of the independent logic of scientific and technical progress, as well as by single automatic economic deductions. When this process is not connected by means of a responsible social and ecological technology policy towards social targets then it will run ambivalently, and respectively blind and uncontrolled. In the next few years it can be assumed that what can be technically realised will also be carried out.
The extreme horror scenario of the future would be the non reservable risks to commodities and environmental changes, energy and genetic technology, the worldwide expansion of weapons of mass destruction, chaotic disinformation, as well as the manipulation of commercially controlled communication. When the outcome for the various world regions and countries also turns out to be very different, the global challenges will affect every part of the world.
In the first instance it can therefore be assumed that the industrial countries will be less affected by the global problems than the developing countries. Thereby this can be illustrated by the regulation of the considerable technical and ecological reaction potential. This is conditional on their military dominance and the fact that they are currently in the situation of violent conflict, which exists due to social distortions and activation of ecological crises. However, if the global challenges will grow without political control in time they will be overhauled.
In the industrial countries there also exists the internal danger of unemployment, how the social costs are to be passed on to the state, the ageing population, the increasing cost of environmental damage and the exploitation of the shortage of resources. The costs passed on to the state could exceed the productivity progress and bring about a far reaching social ecological crisis.
In the long term the global challenges affect every world region. In this context there comes into existence compressing regional, systematic and chronological interdependences. The regional interdependences come forth in the worldwide diffusion of properties, which bring about changes in global environmental circumstances.
Pollution of the atmosphere
Contamination of the world’s oceans
Shortage and destruction of necessary worldwide resources (forests, agricultural land, biological species, energy and materials)
The regional interdependences become more evident through:
Massive migration movement
Increasing tension between the world regions and countries Violent conflicts
Spilling over of regional economies and financial crisis onto the world economy
The systematic interdependences show the ever increasing relationship between the economy, science, technology, media, the communication world, social living areas and the intellectual cultural patterns of explanation. It results in the subsystem increasing its own logic and dynamic. In addition it develops automatically and respectively follows no social rationality; there is no obligation to any overall social values. Furthermore, it creates their interdependency on dynamics, which is generated by an autonomous evolutionary process. However, this process doesn’t have a tendency for striking a balance. This creates a substantial definite continuous expansion among unstable ratios. Controlling or steering these processes on the part of policy is obviously not possible. Essentially, this process continues to be nationally divided alongside the cross-border networks of the subsystem of the economy, science, technology, communication, media, society and culture.
The chronological interdependences thereupon refer to, what takes place today, either done or neglected, has for the most part detectable and often existential consequences for the future. The present and future circumstances are based on the history of the world. In actual fact in this context one dependence is due to, no prior interdependence, which means there are no chronological reactions between regions or systems. These chronological components have their effects in every area, which in this context are already being discussed in regional interdependences. For example, the respective present day activities have impacts on the future:
Production structures Living conditions
Growth of the world’s population Debt
Impact on the environment