Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth

Inhaltsangabe oder Einleitung

Up to the 1970s it was mostly observed that inflation does not have a significant effect on growth, or that the effect was even slightly positive (Sarel 1996). However, due to the following decades of high and persistent inflation in many countries1, the available data showed changes in the inflation-growth nexus. It was univocally confirmed that inflation has a negative impact on growth, and macroeconomic policies are aiming to spur growth by keeping inflation at low levels. This having said, intuitively the question arises, how low should the target inflation be? Or, which is the threshold level of inflation between a positive and negative impact on growth? Many authors in the 1990s attempted to solve this question, with fairly divers results. Sarel (1996) analysed a panel of 87 countries over the period 1970 to 1990 using OLS estimation. He finds a structural break at an average annual rate of inflation of 8%. Below this level, inflation has no significant effect on growth, but for inflation levels above 8%, growth is significantly and strongly negatively affected. Gosh and Phillips (1998) find a much lower threshold at 2.5%, and Christoffersen and Doyle (1998), applying Sarel’s methodology on transient countries between 1990-1996, obtain a threshold of 13%. Bruno and Easterly’s (1998) results are somewhat striking. Their analysis is based on a sample of 31 countries that experienced high-inflation episodes over the period 1961-1994, and results in the fact that inflation does not have a significant effect on growth for normal levels, however the relationship becomes negative with high-frequency data and highinflation observations of 40% or higher.Motivated by this variety of results, Khan and Senhadji re-examined this issue in their 2001 paper “Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth”. They contribute to existing work by extending and modifying their analysis compared to previous literature by, first, looking separately on developing and industrialized countries, and second, by applying new econometric methods, which include the non-linear least squares (NLLS) estimation combined with a hybrid function of inflation, where the threshold level is found with conditional least squares. Furthermore, Khan and Senhadji (2001) use the bootstrap method, proposed by Hansen (1999), in order to test for statistical significance of the threshold effect. Accordingly, their results differ in so far from previous work as the threshold...