The initial post-soviet union period has brought Russia a longest path towards expected economic growth, much of which are explained by external factors. The paper applies the neoclassical economic growth theory to the Russia’s economy during 1990-2013, explaining the importance of foreign oil price changes, inflow of migrants and its geostrategic location towards global trading - including arm sales to notorious North Korea and Iran - to its annual output growth. I also explained the relative correlations between domestic, internal variables, such as changes in legislation/tax reformations, savings and the growth rates achieved periodically for comparative reasons. Future forecasts approved that the growth has been stabilized in a near-term and will become increasingly more depended on the number of Central Asian and other area migrant workers as long as the negative spread between birth and death rates hold in the long-term. And investment in IT industry and attracting foreign hi-tech investments are highly recommended to increase the factor productivity and lessen the oil dependency in the long term. A regression results on the Cobb-Douglas production function also proved our findings by putting more prominence on labor and technology, as the abundance of natural resources, capital, barely reaches increasing returns to scale. I also found that the regression on constant GDP to the oil production and oil prices asserted that more than two third of variations in output could be the reflection of the variations in oil prices.
Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)
- Abstract
- Table of Abbreviations
- Introduction
- Literature Review
- Exogenous Growth Theory
- Data Source and Description
- Modelling
- Regression Results
- Impulse Response Function
- Conclusion
- Appendix
- Reference List
Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)
This paper investigates the economic growth of Russia during the post-Soviet Union period (1990-2013) by applying the neoclassical exogenous growth theory. It aims to explain the significant impact of external factors, such as oil price changes, migrant inflow, and geostrategic location, on Russia's economic growth. Additionally, the paper examines the correlation between domestic variables like tax reforms, savings, and economic growth rates.
- Impact of exogenous factors on Russian economic growth
- Role of foreign oil prices in influencing Russia's output growth
- Influence of migration and geostrategic location on economic performance
- Relationship between domestic variables and economic growth rates
- Future forecasts and long-term economic growth prospects
Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)
- Abstract: Provides an overview of the paper, highlighting the focus on exogenous factors influencing Russia's economic growth during the post-Soviet Union era. It also outlines the use of the neoclassical growth theory, the importance of foreign oil prices and migrant inflow, and future growth prospects.
- Table of Abbreviations: Lists commonly used abbreviations throughout the paper.
- Introduction: Introduces the research topic, highlighting the importance of understanding Russia's economic growth in the post-Soviet Union period. It provides context for the study and outlines the objectives and research methodology.
- Literature Review: Reviews existing literature on economic growth theory, particularly focusing on the exogenous growth model. It examines previous studies on Russia's economic development and identifies relevant theoretical frameworks.
- Exogenous Growth Theory: Discusses the theoretical underpinnings of the exogenous growth model, highlighting key assumptions and factors that influence economic growth. It explains the importance of external factors, including technological advancements and resource availability.
- Data Source and Description: Describes the data sources used in the study, including information on the time period, variables, and data collection methods. It explains the rationale for choosing specific data sources and provides details on data quality and limitations.
- Modelling: Explains the econometric model used to analyze the relationship between exogenous factors and economic growth. It describes the chosen model, its parameters, and the assumptions made in the analysis.
- Regression Results: Presents the results of the regression analysis, showing the statistical significance of the exogenous variables on economic growth. It discusses the coefficients, R-squared value, and other relevant statistics.
- Impulse Response Function: Examines the impact of shocks to exogenous variables on economic growth. It explores the dynamic relationship between the variables and analyzes the magnitude and duration of the effects.
Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)
The main keywords and focus topics of the text include exogenous growth theory, granger causality test, impulse response function, capital formation, factor productivity, and population growth. The paper examines the impact of external factors, particularly foreign oil prices and migrant inflow, on Russia's economic performance. It also explores the role of domestic variables, such as tax reforms, savings, and technological advancements, in influencing growth rates.
- Quote paper
- Nosirjon Juraev (Author), 2013, Post Soviet Union Period. Exogenous Growth Theory in RUSSIA 1990-2013, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/267953
