Main drivers for the discussion of electromobility are the depletion of world’s oil resources and the evolving discussion of climate protection. Stricter CO2 regulations for all developed markets put a high pressure on the automotive industry. Automotive original equipment manufacturer (OEMs) are forced to transport a green image and claim the top position in terms of technological leadership. Future challenges can only be met by cooperation of different industries and politics. Political support and subsidies can speed up the introduction of electromobility. New competences are needed and production depth moves from the OEMs to suppliers. As long as fossil resources in particular coal play the predominant role in energy production the contribution of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to CO2 reduction is low. Access to limited resources such as Lithium and rare earth will be critical and probably establish future dependencies. Manufacturing costs and total cost of ownership (TCO) will remain higher for an electric vehicle (EV) in the foreseeable future. Customers believe in the future of EVs but are not ready to pay higher prices. The estimated market share of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and BEVs will not exceed 20% in 2025.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction/Problem Definition
2 Objectives
3 Methodology
4 Main Part
4.1 Why is the independency of oil so important?
4.2 Ecology: CO2 Regulations
4.3 How clean are battery electric vehicles (BEVs)?
4.4 Its all about the battery
4.5 Electromobility requires cooperation
4.6 Financial aspects
4.7 Political Support in Germany
4.8 What do customers expect?
5 Conclusion
6 ITM Checklist
7 Bibliography
Objectives and Core Themes
The objective of this paper is to analyze the short-term and mid-term prospects of individual electromobility by evaluating economic, political, and technical factors. It aims to determine the primary drivers for electrification, assess the role of various stakeholders, and forecast the most probable market development for the next two decades.
- The impact of global oil dependency and environmental regulations on automotive strategy.
- Technical and economic challenges concerning battery technology, energy density, and vehicle costs.
- The necessity for cross-industry cooperation and new business models between OEMs, energy suppliers, and ICT companies.
- Customer expectations, market penetration scenarios, and the role of political support in Germany.
Excerpt from the Book
4.2 Ecology: CO2 Regulations
Transport is responsible for approximately 20% of the emitted greenhouse gases.
Automotive OEMs expect strict CO2 regulations for all developed markets. Due to the EU Parliament the fleet emission has to be reduced to 130g CO2/km by 2012 respectively to 95g till 2020. Since ICE optimization potential is technically limited to another 30-40% and hydrogen technology and infrastructure is not technically mature, the only solution seems to be the EV. It is quite likely that ICEs are abandoned from urban areas in the foreseeable future. The discussion about critical values for respirable dust in the EC additionally enhances this discussion. A lifecycle perspective also taking production, transportation and recycling of vehicles into account gets more and more important. From a strategic management point of view all prominent car manufacturers decided to invest massive amounts of resources and capital into the development of EVs and the introduction of “greener” processes. A “green” image and the emphasis of sustainability as a central company value are inevitable to be prepared for future competition.
Summary of Chapters
1 Introduction/Problem Definition: Outlines the historical context of electric vehicles and the rising global demand for sustainable mobility due to limited fossil resources.
2 Objectives: Defines the core research questions regarding the drivers, stakeholders, and future scenarios of electromobility.
3 Methodology: Explains the reliance on studies from consulting firms and research institutions due to the fast-paced nature of the industry.
4 Main Part: Analyzes the dependency on oil, regulatory pressures, battery technology, necessary cooperations, financial challenges, and customer requirements.
5 Conclusion: Provides a outlook for 2025, suggesting a market penetration of 15-20% for electrified vehicles and a shift toward "consuming mobility."
6 ITM Checklist: Summarizes strategic, marketing, financial, and organizational implications for management decision-making.
7 Bibliography: Lists the academic and industry sources utilized for the research.
Keywords
Electromobility, Battery Electric Vehicles, CO2 Regulations, Oil Dependency, Total Cost of Ownership, Automotive OEMs, Sustainable Energy, Infrastructure, Market Penetration, Strategic Management, Lithium, Rare Earth, Green Image, Mobility Services, Innovation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this paper?
The paper examines the future development and market prospects of individual electromobility, focusing on economic and strategic factors that will influence the automotive industry.
What are the central thematic fields covered?
The work covers environmental regulations, battery technology limitations, the need for international and cross-industry cooperation, and changing customer mindsets.
What is the primary research goal?
The goal is to provide a forecast for the development of individual electromobility over the next 20 years, addressing how manufacturers and policy-makers should respond to current challenges.
Which scientific methodology is applied?
The research is based on a synthesis of existing studies and publications from leading consulting companies, research institutes, and universities, specifically focusing on data relevant to the German market.
What topics are discussed in the main section?
The main section details the importance of oil independence, the impact of CO2 legislation, the critical role of battery efficiency, financial barriers like Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), and the political support landscape in Germany.
Which keywords best characterize this work?
Key terms include Electromobility, TCO, Automotive OEMs, Market Penetration, Sustainability, and Infrastructure development.
How does the author evaluate the "cleanliness" of battery electric vehicles?
The author argues that the environmental benefit depends heavily on the energy-mix; in regions where electricity is primarily generated from coal, the CO2 balance of a BEV is less favorable than often assumed.
What role do rare raw materials play in the future of the industry?
The paper identifies potential future dependencies on resources like Lithium and rare earths (e.g., Neodymium), suggesting that access to these materials will be a critical success factor for future automotive production.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Holger Bodenmüller (Autor:in), 2011, Prospects of individual electromobility, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/271648
