The Middle East remains one of the planet’s major conflict arenas. It is among the highest military spenders. While global defence expenditures have been declining or only notching up slightly over the last three years, they have continued to grow by more than 10 % in the Middle East. Among the 15 countries with the highest defence expenditures in relations to GDP, more than half are from the Middle East.
The text gives an overview about the historical and structural developments of the current conflict landscape in the Middle East and then focuses on the ascent of ISIS as an example of these developments at work.
It closes with an Outlook about how the Middle East might look like after the demise of ISIS.
Table of Contents
1. Notes on Zug Commodity Association (ZCA) evening event, 24 March 2015
2. The Middle East: Arena of conflicts, arena of geo-economics
3. The Hundred Year's War
4. Landmark events in the making of today’s Middle East
5. The conflict mindset
6. Politics and state in the Middle East
7. ISIS: in search of a conflict
8. The demise of ISIS: the way to go
9. What’s after ISIS?
10. The end of the Hundred Years’ War?
Objective & Topics
This presentation provides a historical and analytical assessment of the persistent instability and conflict in the Middle East, examining the roots of regional power structures, the influence of historical colonial legacies, and the emergence of extremist groups like ISIS.
- Historical genesis of Middle Eastern instability
- The impact of colonial influence and boundaries
- The role of "conflict mindsets" and conspiracy theories
- Dual power structures and regime legitimacy
- The trajectory and rise/decline of ISIS
Excerpt from the book
The conflict mindset
The bloody trajectory of events has fostered a certain mindset and conflict culture that permeates the whole region. I would like to highlight some aspects of this here.
First, there is a wide-spread “Winner takes all” mentality. Only total victory is acceptable, nothing else (which of course then also means total defeat for the adversary). Compromise is seen as weakness and has no value; if there is compromise, parties involved look out for the next opportunity to overturn it and make it a total victory.
Secondly, there is permanent struggle across concentric circles of loyalties. The bedouin proverb “I against my brothers, my brothers and I against our cousins, my cousins, my brothers and I against strangers” encapsulates this finely. Most Arabs and Muslims are hostile to Israel. But then they break up into factions fighting each other, and in practice do much more of that than fighting Israel: secularists against Islamists, Shi’ite Islamists against Sunni Islamists, Wahhabi/Salafi Sunni Islamists against Brotherhood Sunni Islamists, in Syria now the radical Sunni Islamists of the al Qaida-allied Nusra Front against the radical Sunni Islamists of the Islamic State, and so on.
Third, the permanence of these struggles also leads to a permanent need for alliances as most groups are too weak to prevail on their adversaries with their own forces only. Alliances are closed by sheer necessity, after the pseudo-mathematical formula of “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” There is mostly little regard for the narratives involved or the ideology held by the presumptive ally. Unholy alliances are legion in the Middle East.
Summary of Chapters
Notes on Zug Commodity Association (ZCA) evening event, 24 March 2015: The author introduces the topic through a fable to illustrate the irrational nature of conflicts in the Middle East.
The Middle East: Arena of conflicts, arena of geo-economics: This chapter analyzes the region as a high-spending military zone and discusses its strategic importance as a global energy reservoir.
The Hundred Year's War: The author traces the historical origins of current instabilities back to the decline of the Ottoman Empire and colonial power divisions.
Landmark events in the making of today’s Middle East: A chronological overview of key historical events that shaped the modern political landscape of the region.
The conflict mindset: Examines the psychological and cultural factors, such as the "winner takes all" mentality, that sustain regional conflicts.
Politics and state in the Middle East: Explores the "dual power structure" of Middle Eastern states, distinguishing between visible institutions and invisible, real power dynamics.
ISIS: in search of a conflict: Details the origins, leadership, and ideological evolution of ISIS from its roots as an outsider-led group to its territorial expansion.
The demise of ISIS: the way to go: Assesses the factors contributing to the decline of ISIS, including international coalitions and depleting internal resources.
What’s after ISIS?: Analyzes the potential future landscape of the region, focusing on the roles of Iraq, Iran, the Kurds, and external powers.
The end of the Hundred Years’ War?: Concludes that while ISIS may decline, the underlying conflict dynamics suggest that regional instability will likely persist rather than reach an immediate resolution.
Keywords
Middle East, Conflict, Geo-economics, ISIS, History, Power Structure, Narratives, Colonialism, Oil Reserves, Alliances, Conspiracy Theories, Geopolitics, Sunni, Shi'ite, Instability
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the central focus of this work?
The work focuses on understanding the historical and political roots of the persistent conflicts in the Middle East, with a specific analytical deep-dive into the rise and decline of ISIS.
What are the central themes discussed?
Key themes include the impact of colonial legacies, the role of oil and gas in global politics, the "impotent macho state" paradox, and the prevalence of a regional "conflict mindset."
What is the author's primary research question?
The author seeks to answer why the Middle East is so conflict-prone and whether the historical genesis of these events provides clues to future developments in the region.
Which methodology does the historian apply?
The author utilizes a historical method, analyzing past events and historical analogies to explain the causes of current regional effects and instabilities.
What is covered in the main section of the document?
The main section covers the "Hundred Years' War" analogy, the internal and external power structures of Middle Eastern regimes, and a detailed chronicle of ISIS's emergence, expansion, and subsequent pushback.
Which keywords best characterize the analysis?
The analysis is characterized by terms such as historical genesis, conflict culture, dual power structure, geopolitical risk, and sectarianism.
Why does the author use the "frog and scorpion" fable?
It serves as an allegory for the irrational, self-destructive, and senseless violence often observed in Middle Eastern political conflicts.
What is the "impotent macho state" paradox?
It describes a phenomenon where regimes appear strong due to their military and security apparatus, but are in reality brittle and weak because their political legitimacy is narrow and hollow.
How does the author view the likelihood of a post-ISIS resolution?
The author is pessimistic, suggesting that the removal of ISIS will not lead to a peaceful or stable region, as the underlying conflict mindset remains deeply entrenched.
- Quote paper
- Dr. phil. hist. Rolf Tanner (Author), 2015, Middle East Enigma. Managing Political and Economic Risks on the Ground, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/295676
