In western postmodern political life polling is a pivotal instrument in the political arena. Polling is a vital instrument for analyzing name recognition of political auteurs, for preparing campaign strategies, for screening public opinion, for generating job approval ratings or simply forecast elections respectively waging potential election prospects for political combatants, who considering running for a higher public office.
Moreover polling results playing not only a decisive role in U.S. primaries, indeed they actually are finally the decision makers, which political candidate may enter a television debate (so in the GOP primary of 2012 ) to campaign for his or her political cause. Even in the aftermath of political election polling is used not only to judge the pollster, but to judge the political combats, who successful they played the political expectation game.
Indeed polls to forecast election differ in Germany and the United States. In that context can be mentioned aspects such as likely voters, Minority Turnout and other aspects that are not common vocabulary of German political pundits. Meanwhile in Germany public polls often can forecast elections prospects quite clear. A big contrast can be stated in the United States regarding the 2014 midterm election. Several polls show democrats leading the “generic ballot” for Congress, without indicating a sure democratic takeover of the house. An Article in the Washington post asked “How many votes do democrats need to retake the house?”
Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)
- Introduction
- Operationalization questions or simply methodic
- Factors that affect political polling
- Sample & Turnout
- Share of ethnic minorities on the electorate
- Electoral system & Party system
- Poll Closing Time
- Cross references and footnotes
Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)
This working paper aims to compare the methodologies and impacts of political polling in the United States and Germany. It investigates the factors influencing poll reliability and explores how these differences affect election forecasting and the interpretation of results by political pundits.
- Differences in political polling methodologies between the US and Germany.
- The impact of various factors (sample selection, voter turnout, party systems) on poll accuracy.
- The role of polling in shaping political campaigns and influencing public perception.
- Comparison of polling results with actual election outcomes in both countries.
- The reliability of polls in predicting electoral outcomes.
Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)
Introduction: This chapter introduces the pivotal role of political polling in modern Western politics, highlighting its use in various aspects of the political process, from candidate name recognition to election forecasting. It contrasts the use and accuracy of polling in the US and Germany, citing examples such as the 2014 US midterm elections and the 2005 German general election to illustrate discrepancies between polls and actual election results. The chapter also mentions the significant impact of polling on specific political events, such as the 2008 New Hampshire primary for Hillary Clinton and the 2012 US presidential race's focus on minority voter turnout. The introduction establishes the core question: how do differences in political polling methods between the US and Germany impact the political system and election prediction?
Operationalization questions or simply methodic: This chapter outlines the methodology for comparing political polling in the US and Germany. It focuses on key factors affecting the reliability of electoral polls, setting aside tangential statistical issues. The approach will involve a detailed, comparative analysis of both countries’ political systems and electoral conditions using a table-comparison method, examining both temporal changes and concurrent differences.
Factors that affect political polling: This chapter presents a comparative overview of factors influencing poll reliability in the US and Germany. It contrasts aspects like sample selection (registered voters vs. all adults), voter turnout, party systems (two-party vs. multi-party), the significance of ethnic minority representation in the electorate, and poll closing times due to time zone differences in the US. This structured comparison lays the groundwork for deeper analysis in subsequent chapters.
Sample & Turnout: This chapter delves into the impact of different voter turnout rates and electoral systems on the sampling methods used in political polling. It highlights the key difference between Germany's universal adult suffrage and the US system requiring voter registration, directly impacting sample design and the accuracy of projections. This difference forms a significant component of the broader comparative analysis of polling methodologies.
Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)
Political polling, election forecasting, voter turnout, sample selection, party system, United States, Germany, poll reliability, comparative politics, methodological differences, election prediction.
Frequently Asked Questions: A Comparative Analysis of Political Polling in the US and Germany
What is the main focus of this working paper?
This working paper compares the methodologies and impacts of political polling in the United States and Germany. It investigates factors influencing poll reliability and how these differences affect election forecasting and interpretation of results by political pundits.
What are the key themes explored in the paper?
Key themes include differences in political polling methodologies between the US and Germany; the impact of sample selection, voter turnout, and party systems on poll accuracy; the role of polling in shaping political campaigns and public perception; a comparison of polling results with actual election outcomes; and the reliability of polls in predicting electoral outcomes.
What topics are covered in the table of contents?
The table of contents includes an introduction, a section on methodology, an examination of factors affecting political polling (such as sample and turnout, ethnic minority representation, and electoral systems), a discussion of poll closing times, and finally, cross-references and footnotes.
How does the paper compare US and German political polling methodologies?
The paper uses a detailed, comparative analysis of both countries’ political systems and electoral conditions, employing a table-comparison method to examine both temporal changes and concurrent differences. It focuses on key factors affecting poll reliability, such as sample selection (registered voters vs. all adults), voter turnout, party systems (two-party vs. multi-party), the significance of ethnic minority representation in the electorate, and poll closing times.
What is the significance of voter turnout and electoral systems in the analysis?
The paper highlights the key difference between Germany's universal adult suffrage and the US system requiring voter registration. This impacts sample design and the accuracy of projections, forming a significant component of the broader comparative analysis of polling methodologies.
What are some examples used to illustrate the discrepancies between polls and actual election results?
The introduction cites examples such as the 2014 US midterm elections and the 2005 German general election to illustrate discrepancies. It also mentions the significant impact of polling on specific political events, such as the 2008 New Hampshire primary for Hillary Clinton and the 2012 US presidential race's focus on minority voter turnout.
What is the central research question of this paper?
The core question is: how do differences in political polling methods between the US and Germany impact the political system and election prediction?
What are the key words associated with this research?
Key words include: Political polling, election forecasting, voter turnout, sample selection, party system, United States, Germany, poll reliability, comparative politics, methodological differences, election prediction.
What methodology is used to analyze the data?
The paper utilizes a comparative analysis of both countries’ political systems and electoral conditions using a table-comparison method, examining both temporal and concurrent differences. It focuses on a detailed analysis of key factors affecting poll reliability, setting aside tangential statistical issues.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Oliver Märtin (Autor:in), 2013, Political Polling in the United States and Germany. A Comparison, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/308288
