3D printing technology recently receives much attention in mass media. While it is sometimes entitled as a technology that can bring a third industrial revolution it is not to deny that it will have huge influence on traditional manufacturing. Furthermore this technology comes along with a huge disruptive character since it nowadays demonstrates its potential for the future of consumers.
The dissemination of personal 3D printers and further 3D printing technologies involves a variety of opportunities and challenges. This thesis analyses the implications of 3D printing technologies on the B-to-C market focusing on possible future market constellations and conflict situations using the instrument of scenario technique in order to think ahead the future of the depicted area.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Theoretical Framework
2.1 Fundamental Fabrication Processes
2.2 3D Printing
2.2.1 Development Process
2.2.2 Additive Manufacturing Technologies
2.2.2.1 3D Print with Powder
2.2.2.2 SLS
2.2.2.3 SLM
2.2.2.4 EBM
2.2.2.5 FDM
2.2.2.6 Laser Cladding
2.2.2.7 MJM
2.2.2.8 SL
2.2.2.9 PolyJet
2.2.2.10 LOM
2.2.2.11 FTI
2.2.2.12 DLP
2.2.3 Summary
2.3 Scenario Technique
2.3.1 Definition
2.3.2 Origin
2.3.3 The Scenario Funnel
2.3.4 Scenario Analysis Procedure
2.3.4.1 Scenario Preparation
2.3.4.2 Scenario Field Analysis
2.3.4.3 Scenario Prognostic
2.3.4.4 Scenario Development
2.3.4.5 Scenario Transfer
3. Execution of the Scenario Analysis
3.1 Scenario Preparation
3.2 Scenario Field Analysis
3.2.1 Direct Influence Analysis
3.2.2 Relevance Analysis
3.2.3 Selection of Key Factors
3.3 Scenario Prognostic
3.3.1 Price Model
3.3.2 Use Time of Objects
3.3.3 Surface Quality
3.3.4 Willingness to go with new Technology
3.3.5 Material Strength
3.3.6 Intellectual Property
3.3.7 Part Complexity
3.3.8 Multi-Material-Processing
3.3.9 Process Cost
3.3.10 New Materials
3.3.11 Material Costs
3.3.12 Recycling
3.3.13 Energy Use
3.3.14 Speed
3.3.15 Quality Assurance System
4. Scenario Development
4.1 Scenario Characterizations
4.1.1 Scenario “Sustainable disruptiveness in a vivid competition”
4.1.2 Scenario “Technological recognition”
5. Scenario Transfer
5.1 Contrasting Scenario “Sustainable disruptiveness in a vivid competition”
5.2 Contrasting Scenario “Technological recognition”
6. Conclusion
7. References
Appendix A1 Influence Matrix
Appendix A2 Relevance Matrix
Appendix A3 System-Grid
Appendix B1 Cross-Impact-Matrix
Appendix B2 Cross-Impact-Matrix
Objectives & Core Topics
This thesis examines the future of 3D printing within the Business-to-Customer (B-to-C) market. The primary research goal is to identify decisive influencing factors for potential future market constellations and to analyze emerging conflict situations between economic actors through the application of the scenario technique.
- Application of the Gausemeier scenario methodology to 3D printing.
- Identification of key influencing factors (e.g., price models, IP, material strength, sustainability).
- Development of consistent future scenarios for the B-to-C landscape.
- Analysis of structural shifts in manufacturing and consumer behavior.
- Evaluation of conflict potentials between desktop, localized, and industrial 3D printing models.
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2.2.1 Development Process
3D printing is a manufacturing technology for the fast and in relation to other fabrication technologies cheap process for the creation of models, patterns, prototypes, tools, and end products. Basis and starting point for 3D printing are CAD models. This is the reason why this technology is also called “digital fabrication”, as the existence of the digital model is the prerequisite for production. CAD models are created through CAD software or a scan of an existing artifact and give the designer the chance to improve the quality of the design, communications through documentation, and to create a database for manufacturing. At the end of the CAD process stands the CAD file in form of an electronic file. This file is generated in CAD software and stored in the STL format. It has to take into account the peculiarities of the desired object and sometimes also use of the respective technology. Here care is extremely important, since the accuracy of the final product is not only dependent on the settings and possibilities from the different additive production machines, but also from the creation of the virtual layers in the CAD file. After that specialized software slices this model into cross-sectional layers, creating a computer file that is finally sent to the 3D printer. Then the AM process begins with forming each layer via the selective placement or forming of material. This process can be imagined with the picture of a conventional inkjet printer that infinitely moves from left to right over a page, adding layers of material on top until the printed letters become 3D objects. Depending on the process various preparations are necessary. These can e.g. include the setting of the corresponding parameters and as well as the selection and placing of the right material.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Presents the transformative nature of 3D printing as a potential new industrial revolution and defines the scope for the B-to-C market analysis.
2. Theoretical Framework: Provides a comprehensive overview of additive manufacturing technologies, their fabrication processes, and the underlying scenario methodology used for the analysis.
3. Execution of the Scenario Analysis: Documents the practical application of the scenario method, identifying and ranking key influencing factors that shape the future of 3D printing in the B-to-C sector.
4. Scenario Development: Combines the identified future projections into consistent scenario narratives, exploring potential divergent futures for the industry.
5. Scenario Transfer: Contrasts the developed scenarios against affected economic actors to highlight potential conflict situations and strategic implications for market participants.
6. Conclusion: Synthesizes the findings, emphasizing that technological progress alone is insufficient for success, and highlights the importance of social and regulatory factors.
Keywords
3D printing, Additive Manufacturing, Scenario Analysis, B-to-C, Market Constellations, Consumer behavior, Rapid Prototyping, Intellectual Property, Process costs, Sustainability, Digital fabrication, Manufacturing technology, Future projections, Economic actors, Innovation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this research?
The research focuses on analyzing the B-to-C market for 3D printing technology to identify possible future market constellations and conflict situations between various economic actors.
What are the central thematic areas covered in this work?
Key topics include the development of 3D printing technologies, the impact of intellectual property, material costs, sustainability (recycling and energy), and shifting consumer roles in manufacturing.
What is the primary goal of the thesis?
The goal is to conduct a systematic scenario analysis to gain theoretical insights into how 3D printing will evolve and influence the B-to-C market over a ten-year horizon.
Which scientific methodology is utilized?
The thesis employs the five-phase scenario technique developed by Jürgen Gausemeier to systematically derive visions of the future.
What does the main body of the work address?
The main body details the theoretical framework, the execution of the scenario analysis (including the selection of key factors), the development of consistent future scenarios, and the transfer of these scenarios into management-relevant conflict situations.
Which terms characterize the work?
The work is characterized by terms such as 3D printing, Additive Manufacturing, Scenario Analysis, B-to-C, and digital fabrication.
How do "desktop factories" influence traditional supply chains?
Desktop factories enable consumers to become producers, potentially eliminating the need for traditional delivery and packaging, which creates conflict for existing retail and logistic models.
Why is the "Scenario Funnel" significant in this context?
The Scenario Funnel illustrates the increasing complexity and uncertainty of the 3D printing industry as time progresses, helping to visualize potential "best-case" and "worst-case" future developments.
What role does intellectual property play in the future of 3D printing?
IP is identified as a critical barrier; a lack of legal framework creates uncertainty, and the thesis evaluates whether "restriction" or "controlled freedom" will define the future legal landscape.
- Citar trabajo
- Jens Lammert (Autor), 2015, 3D Printing as a Direct Manufacturing Technology? A Scenario Analysis of Potential Future B-to-C Market Constellations, Múnich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/315782
