Species distribution modeling to predict and map appropriate habitat for endangered species is critical for monitoring and restoration of their population decline in natural habitat. However, data on distribution of endangered species are limited. Egyptian Vulture (Neophron percnopterus) is one of the endangered species in the world that its population has been declining by 50% in the last three decade.
In this study, we have tried to test the predicted distribution of potentially suitable habitat for Egyptian Vulture in Iraq by using Maxent as species distribution model. To achieve these aims, we could be done with species distribution model outputs of Egyptian Vulture from occurrence data assembled from Nature Iraq and made distribution predictions, demonstrating how landscape and environmental variables may affect the species distribution and we determined their importance and compared known habitat of Egyptian Vulture from KBAs with predicted habitat predictions from Maxent.
The model performed very well. The AUC value is 0.870, which is better than random prediction. The results indicate that one of the precipitation inputs, bio_13, contributed 54.3% to the final description of potential habitat for the Egyptian Vulture. This provides evidence that precipitation, particularly precipitation of wettest month, is the most significant variable in the model’s determination of suitable habitat locations. Several of the highest suitability points predicted by Maxent are associated with known Egyptian Vulture presence and some of them match with KBAs. But, there are a number of locations, which were predicted to have high suitability of habitat for Egyptian Vulture, are located outside KBAs.
This study is important to do more fieldwork for predicted high suitable area for Egyptian Vulture in the future and protect them from population decline.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Methods
2.1.The Study area:
2.2.The Egyptian Vulture:
2.2.1 Ecology and Habitat Description of Egyptian Vulture
2.3.Occurrence data:
2.4.Environmental data
2.5.Data Analysis
2.5.1 Developing the model
2.5.2 Maxent
2.5.3 Maxent output data format
2.5.4 Model evaluation
Chapter 3: Result
3.1.Response Curves results:
3.2. Jackknife results:
Chapter 4: Discussion
4.1. Response Curve and Environmental Variables contribution
4.2.Conclusion
4.3.Conservation Implication
Research Objectives and Focus Areas
The primary objective of this dissertation is to assess the potential suitable habitat distribution of the endangered Egyptian Vulture in Iraq by utilizing the Maxent species distribution model, thereby supporting future conservation planning and fieldwork efforts.
- Application of the Maxent algorithm to presence-only species occurrence data.
- Identification of critical environmental and landscape variables influencing habitat suitability.
- Comparative analysis between predicted suitable habitats and existing Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs).
- Evaluation of model performance using statistical metrics such as the Area Under the Curve (AUC).
- Provision of conservation recommendations for the protection of Egyptian Vulture populations from further decline.
Excerpt from the Book
Chapter 2: Methods
Iraq is located between 29° 5’ and 37° 22’ N latitude and 38° 45’ and 48° 45’ E longitudes in the southwest Asia continent (FAO, 2011; "Maps of World," 2013). It’s characterized by distinctive environmental, biological and social structures, which are different anywhere else in the Arabian Peninsula and it is located in two ecological region which are Mediterranean forests, woodlands and scrubs with Mesopotamian delta and marshes(WWF, 2014). It has 600 miles (965.61 km) in length from the northern border to Persian Gulf, and its width about 450 miles (4267.2 km), (FAO, 2011). The latitude is range from sea level from south to peaks of mountains in the north, which reach 14.000 feet (4267.2 m) as height, and it covers 438 317 km2. It surrounded by Iran from the east, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait from south, Syria and Jordan from the west and Turkey from the north.
In addition, Iraq divided into four main biogeographically region; lower Mesopotamia, which is extended from foot of Jabal Hamrin to the northern east of Arabian Gulf, Desert plateau, which is located in the south-west of the Euphrates river, Upper plains and Foothills, which extended through the country in a north-westerly direction from Mansuriya (100 km north-east of Baghdad), the last region is Mountains region, which is located in the north and north-east border of Iraq, and extended from Zakho to Halabja. The climate of Iraq is described by a cool rainy winter with a hot dry summer(Evans, 1994; Hatt, 1959).
Summary of Chapters
Chapter 1: Introduction: Discusses the significance of species distribution modeling in modern conservation planning and introduces Maxent as a specialized tool for predicting habitat suitability for endangered species like the Egyptian Vulture.
Chapter 2: Methods: Details the geographical and environmental characteristics of the study area, the ecological background of the Egyptian Vulture, and the technical procedures for modeling, including data collection and model evaluation.
Chapter 3: Result: Presents the statistical findings of the Maxent model, including AUC values, the most influential environmental variables, and the geographical visualization of predicted suitable habitats.
Chapter 4: Discussion: Interprets the modeling results, compares them with existing biological literature, discusses the impact of environmental factors, and provides specific conservation recommendations to address population declines.
Key Words
Egyptian Vulture, Neophron percnopterus, Maxent, Species distribution modeling, Habitat suitability, Iraq, Kurdistan, Environmental variables, Conservation, Biodiversity, GIS, Climate change, Precipitation, Key Biodiversity Areas, Wildlife management
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this dissertation?
This work focuses on predicting the potential distribution of suitable habitats for the endangered Egyptian Vulture in Iraq to assist in future conservation and monitoring efforts.
Which specific modeling approach is utilized in this study?
The study employs the Maxent (Maximum Entropy) modeling approach, which is a specialized statistical method for predicting species distributions using presence-only data.
What is the central research question?
The research aims to determine how landscape and environmental variables influence the spatial distribution of the Egyptian Vulture and to identify high-suitability areas that may not currently be protected.
What are the main thematic pillars of the research?
The study covers environmental niche modeling, geographical data analysis, the ecology of the Egyptian Vulture, and conservation implications within the Iraqi landscape.
How is the model evaluated for accuracy?
Model performance is validated primarily using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) metric, which indicates how well the model differentiates between suitable and unsuitable habitat locations.
What are the most significant findings regarding environmental drivers?
The results identify precipitation, particularly the precipitation of the wettest month, as the most significant variable contributing to the model's determination of suitable vulture habitats.
Are the predicted habitats consistent with existing known locations?
Yes, while many high-suitability points match known records and Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), the model successfully identified several new, highly suitable areas located outside of previously surveyed sites.
What specific conservation recommendations are proposed?
The author recommends conducting field surveys in newly identified suitable areas, protecting high-value sites, reducing anthropogenic threats like hunting and poisoning, and increasing public awareness.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Mariwan Rahim (Autor:in), 2014, Predicting suitable habitat of Egyptian Vulture (Neophron percnopterus) in Iraq, using Maxent model, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/321923
