Excerpt
Table of Contents
Abstract
Acknowledgements
List of Tables
List of Figures
List of Abbreviations
1 Introduction
1.1 Statement
1.2 Scope and Outline of the Study
1.3 Literature Review
1.4 Materials and Methods
2 Overview of the Energy Sector of Pakistan
2.1 General Outlook
2.2 Primary Energy Supply and Final Consumption
2.2.1 Resources and Reserves
2.2.2 Primary Energy Supplies
2.2.3 Final Energy Consumption
3 Electricity Infrastructure of Pakistan
3.1 Overview
3.2 Structural Organization and Deregulation of the Electricity Sector
3.3 Power Plants and Installed Capacity
3.4 Electricity Generation
3.4.1 Fuel Consumption and Efficiency of Thermal Plants
3.4.2 Cost of Generation
3.4.3 Capacity Factor
3.5 Transmission and Distribution of Electricity
3.5.1 Transmission
3.5.2 Distribution
3.5.3 T&D Losses
3.6 Demand and Consumption
3.6.1 Demand and Supply
3.6.2 Demand and Supply Deficit
3.7.3 Electricity Consumption
4 Electricity Consumption forecast using Multiple Regression
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Data and Methodology
4.3 Results
5 Conclusions and Recommendations
5.1 Problems
5.2 Reasons for Problematic Situation of Electricity Sector
5.3 Recommended Solutions and Reforms
References
Appendix A Energy Budget
Appendix B Power Plant Specifications
Appendix C Electricity Generation data
Appendix D Multiple Regression model data
Appendix E Performance of the Distribution Companies
Appendix F Distribution company-wise losses
Appendix G Reasons for Problematic Situation of Electricity Sector
ABSTRACT
EVALUATION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY IN PAKISTAN Muhammad Jasim Humaiyun
Master of Science in Industrial Engineering Advisor: Prof. Dr. Volkan Ş Ediger
February,
Pakistan is a developing country and it can only move forward once the energy sector is secure and self sufficient. Right from the beginning, the country has constantly faced energy shortages in all sectors due to incompetent policies and governence. This study frames the analysis of the current energy situation, with main focus on electricity. All the factors which are hampering the growth of the energy sector are identified and potential solutions are discussed. Matching the electricity supply and demand is the ultimate goal, therefore a forecast analysis (multiple regression model) based on seasonal variation in temperature is performed in order to predict the future electric consumption and help authorities take necessary actions for fulfilment. Finally, a comprehensive detail is provided on the causes and problems of the energy crisis, and potential solutions and reforms are provided
Keywords: Pakistan Energy, Electricity, Energy Policy, Multiple Regression Model, Demand Forecast
Acknowledgements
First of all I will thank the Almighty for helping me come this far and paving the way ahead of me
I would like to express my utmost gratitude and love towards my family, especially my parents Khurram Humaiyun and Saadiah Humaiyun, who have stood by me in difficult times and helped me for whatever I have right now. I also appreciate their patience for all the period I have been away from home
I express my gratitude and great respect to my advisor Prof. Dr. Volkan Ş Ediger for the useful comments, remarks and engagement through the learning process of this master thesis. Furthermore, I would like to thank my co-advisor Assoc. Prof. Ahmet Yücekaya, whose vast knowledge helped me finish the thesis. I am grateful to both my advisors for their help and encouragement
I would like to thank my dear Irsa Chaudhry, the southpaw, through whom I learned the fact that flames of hope can never burn brightest without utmost despair. I would also thank my great friend, Mr. Ain Ali for his precious support and presence throughout this difficult time, may you be at the highest of highs
Last but not the least, a very special thanks to my family in Turkey, Serkan ışık and Örge Tokdil along with their parents, for showing such love and hospitality. My heart is always open to you
List of Tables
Table 3.1 Source-type installed generation capacities, 2010-2014
Table 3.2 Fossil fuel input of thermal power plants, 2009-2013
Table 3.3 Thermal output energy by fuel type, 2010-2014
Table 3.4 Input vs output energy, 2010-2014
Table 3.5 Thermal generation cost, 2010-2014
Table 3.6 Hydro electricity generation cost, 2010-2014
Table 3.7 Distribution companies in Pakistan
Table 4.1 Summary of predicted electricity consumption values
Table 4.2 Comparison of forecast results with previous studies
Table A.1 Energy budget
Table B.1 Thermal plants owned by public and private sectors
Table C.1 Installed Capacity of power plants, 1980-2014
Table C.2 Installed capacity of public and private thermal power plants, 1990- 2014
Table C.3 Installed capacity of public and private hydro power plants, 1999- 2014
Table C.4 Electricity generation, 1980-2014
Table C.5 Capacity factor of hydro, thermal and nuclear, 1980-2014
Table C.6 Generation and installed capacity of power plants, 2010-2014 100 Table C.7 Capacity factor of power plants, 2010-2014 (NEPRA 2014)
Table C.8 Cost of generation, 2010-2014
Table C.9 Technical specifications of thermal plants
Table D.1 Industrial production index of Pakistan 2009-2014
Table D.2 Regression model data (temp, IPI, GDP, population)
Table D.3 MS Excel summary output of regression model
List of Figures
Figure 2.1 Energy reserve utilization of Pakistan till 2030
Figure 2.2 Coal reserves of Pakistan
Figure 2.3 Oil and gas reserves of Pakistan
Figure 2.4 Primary energy supply by fuel type, 2009-2013
Figure 2.5 Energy mix, 2013
Figure 2.6 Final energy consumption by fuel type, 2009-2013
Figure 2.7 Supply vs consumption of energy, 2009-2013
Figure 2.8 Sector-wise energy consumption, 2013
Figure 3.1 Electricity infrastructure map, 2015
Figure 3.2 Correlation between electricity and GDP growth, 2001-2013
Figure 3.3 Timeline of major historic developments
Figure 3.4 Managerial structure of Pakistan’s electricity sector, 2015
Figure 3.5 Capacity growth, 1980-2014
Figure 3.6 Public-Private total capacity ownership, 1990-2014
Figure 3.7 Public-Private thermal capacity ownership, 1990-2014
Figure 3.8 Public-Private hydro capacity ownership, 1999-2013
Figure 3.9 Electricity generation, 1980-2014
Figure 3.10 Generation source comparison 1980 and 2014
Figure 3.11 Input fuel energy for thermal electric generation, 2009-2013
Figure 3.12 Output electric energy by thermal plants, 2010-2014
Figure 3.13 Improvement in plant efficiency world-wide
Figure 3.14 Thermal generation cost comparison between GENCOs, IPPs and KESC, 2009-2014
Figure 3.15 Source-wise capacity factor, 1980-2014
Figure 3.16 Transmission line network in Pakistan map
Figure 3.17 Distribution companies operating areas map
Figure 3.18 Units generated vs transmission losses, 2004-2014
Figure 3.19 Units for distribution vs distribution losses, 2004-2014
Figure 3.20 Transmission, distribution and total losses, 2004-2014
Figure 3.21 Electricity demand per day, 2009-2014
Figure 3.22 Hourly demand in summer and winter time, 2013
Figure 3.23 Weekday vs weekend hourly demand in summer and winter time .
Figure 3.24 Generation capacity vs average demand per day (MW)
Figure 3.25 Electricity demand and supply deficit
Figure 3.26 Electricity generated vs electricity consumed, 2010-2014
Figure 3.27 Per capita energy consumption Pakistan vs India vs Turkey, 2010- 2013
Figure 3.28 Sector-wise electricity consumption, 1990-2014
Figure 3.29 Sector-wise energy mix, 2014
Figure 4.1 Dependence of electric consumption on temperature
List of Abbreviations
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Statement
As the world stepped into the age of industrial revolution, it has turned into a power house with rapid industrialization and automation. This transformation started with first phase of the industrial revolution in late 18th century with the advent of the steam engine which targeted a chain reaction of industrial processes. Gradually, people started to look for a more convenient form of energy which could be easily transformed from one form to the other and transmitted. Hence the second phase of industrial revolution saw the discovery of electricity as a form of energy (Britannica 2015). With the works of scientists like Tesla and Edison, electricity became the main source of energy for all sectors. Consequently, after 1970s the age of computers emerged, followed by robotics. Now, almost everything we own or use requires energy to run, and most important form is the electric energy. Electricity is one of the most vital type of final energies for socioeconomic development of the society. It nurtures the world as we know and is the very basic fragment of a developed world. It is the input power for machineries in factories and industries, for household gadgets, for lighting our cities and running the vehicles. The ever growing global competitiveness in science and technology requires any country to possess a sound energy profile. Therefore, for developing countries like Pakistan, the top priority should be to gain a sustainable electricity sector in order to promote advancement. Without it, the whole industrial sector will shut down, resulting in a dead trade and economy. There will be no metropolitan activities, no research and development, no educational activities and hence leading the country towards a ‘stone age’ like era.
When Pakistan gained independence in 1947, the energy infrastructure was almost non- existent. There was only a small hydro power availability, and no energy was being utilized through fossil fuels (Ullah 2013). As time passed, the government realized the importance of a developed energy sector, and hence Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) was created in 1959 to handle the growing energy needs of the country. Numerous hydro projects were initiated and new oil and gas reserves were discovered. A sound infrastructure based on power generation by hydro and thermal resources was laid out and the sector continued to grow up until 1980s, after which the energy crisis started to emerge (Rauf et al. 2015). To tackle this problem, energy policies in 1985, 1994 and 1998 were developed but apparently none of them have been successful till date. Consequently, all the energy demanding sectors of Pakistan are severely suffering. There is extreme shortage of electricity resulting in lost industrial production and development, suffering commercial and domestic sectors and downfall in trade, economy and GDP. The country’s economy is largely based on textile production and agriculture with exports more than 60% of the total (Kalsoom 2008). Both these sectors require an unhampered flow of electricity in order to fulfill production potential, which is obviously not present at current conditions. If the country wants to achieve any success, it needs to feed the industrial and commercial sector with sufficient power supply. In this thesis, we will study all the pros and cons of the sector, and try and identify the main problems and suggest possible solutions, keeping in view the present status of the infrastructure.
1.2 Scope and Outline of the Study
In this study, firstly I have identified the overall energy sector, mainly the primary and final energies. Then focused on the electricity sector, highlighting all the key factors included from production till consumption. Analysis based on changes in trends, historic comparison and major developments are discussed. I then provided a mathematical model to identify the future consumption of electricity in the country and compared my results with other studies for validation. Finally, keeping in view the performance inspection done in this report, I proposed possible solutions and reforms which can help the sector to reincarnate.
The thesis consists of five chapters, as listed below.
Chapter 1 provides introduction, including history and importance of energy and electricity in this era. Also provides the basic structure of this thesis and a brief detail about previous studies done on electricity sector of Pakistan.
Chapter 2 includes the overview of the energy sector of Pakistan. It provides the basic numbers concerning primary energy production, imports, exports and conversion to final energy. Consumption of final energy in the form of electricity is also discussed.
Chapter 3 is based on the electricity infrastructure of Pakistan. It gives the governing structure details, types of power plants and fuels, installed capacity, generation (including costs), transmission and distribution, electricity consumption and matching of supply and demand.
Chapter 4 contains forecasting of electricity consumption on monthly basis with seasonal variations. The method used is multiple regression model with independent variables including population, GDP, industrial production index and temperature. The results are compared with a number of other studies and reports.
Chapter 5 outlines the crisis faced by the country in terms of shortage of energy. Problems and their causes are discussed in details, and possible solutions are provided to help Pakistan pull itself out of this crisis. Finally, the conclusion based on the overall status of the energy infrastructure is provided.
1.3 Literature Review
There is an extensive literature available on the energy and electricity sector of Pakistan, ranging from detailed energy outlook to forecasting to renewable energy integration. The current crisis has led many researchers and scientists to take part in the energy battle, and try to find a final solution once and for all. Almost all of the studies are published with the energy shortages as the main issue of discussion. Some of the most recent publications on electricity sector of Pakistan are reviewed below.
Zaman et al. (2012) proposed a multivariate electricity consumption function for Pakistan with economic and population growth being the input variables. They used Wald-F statistics and concluded that population growth, foreign investment and income are positively correlated with the electric consumption but with different levels of impact (1% increase in income, international investment or population increases electricity consumption by 0.973%, 0.056% and 1.605% respectively).
Ullah (2013) explained the overall value chain of electricity infrastructure from production to consumption. The existing problems and future measures to improve the system are highlighted. Causes including governance failure, inadequate policies, and non-implementation of reforms are mentioned. Finally, the Theory of New Institutional Economics is applied for further research on the power sector.
Iqbal et al. (2013) estimated the electricity demand function for Pakistan using smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. This model correlates the consumption with variation of the GDP. They pointed out that continuous investment in the power sector is required to meet the increasing demand of electricity for a resultant increase in GDP. They concluded the results with analysis of using cheap resources for power generation, and the effect on pricing and tariffs.
Kessides (2013) points out the hardships that are being faced by the individuals and businesses in Pakistan due to the electricity deficits. He mentions that it is the main reason of the socio-economic failure of the country and has emerged due to institutional and governance failures. He drafted an improved potential policy in order to end this energy bankruptcy.
Ali et al. (2013) used ARIMA model to forecast the electricity consumption with varying in seasonal temperature in Pakistan until 2020. Their model displayed that with increase in temperature, the consumption will also increase and July 2020 will see the highest demand of 6785.6 GWh.
Nayyar et al.(2014) in their publication, ‘Assessment of present conventional and non- conventional energy scenario of Pakistan’, reviewed and assessed the demography of the country versus energy sectors, supplies, consumption, reserves, electricity generation and demand supply. They mostly concluded that conventional resources are not enough to satisfy the growing energy needs, and a well-planned renewable energy setup is required to solve the energy problem.
Satti et al. (2014) attempted to evaluate the relation between coal consumption and economic growth of Pakistan. They applied the VECM Granger causality approach and concluded that there is a bidirectional Granger Causality between the two factors.
Mahmood et al. (2014) proposed some methods in order to minimize the energy deficits. They analyzed the effects of energy imports on fulfilling the energy supply and demand gap. They discussed the proposed projects including Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) project; Iran, Pakistan and India (IPI) gas pipelines; Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import from Qatar. They also proposed the development of infrastructure on basis of renewable energy.
Perwez et al. (2015) established the overview of the electricity sector of Pakistan with historical summary of supply and demand. They used a Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP) model to forecast the demand of electricity. They divided the future scenario into three parts; i) Business-as-usual, in which they assumed the future electricity sector to maintain the current growth status; ii) New Coal (NC), in which they assumed the future electricity production to be mainly based on the coal resources of Pakistan; and iii) Green Future (GF), in which the forecast with renewable energy integration in mind. They concluded with policy implications of model for future electricity generation and environmental policies.
Rauf et al. (2015) gave a comprehensive details on the energy sector of the country from establishment, history and achievements to energy reserves, electricity generation/consumption, and renewable energy potential. Finally, they pointed out the causes of the energy crisis and provided solutions.
Shaikh et al. (2015) diagnosed the overall conditions of the Pakistani electricity sector with potential and planned developments to improve the overall situation. They evaluated the implementation of the National Energy Security Plan, a government proposed plan to rejuvenate the energy infrastructure of the country, and came to the conclusion that no progress has been done in practicing this plan. Finally, they discussed the alternative energy solutions which can tackle the ongoing energy deficits.
Zakaria and Noureen (2016) in their report, ‘Benchmarking and regulation of power distribution companies in Pakistan’, used stochastic frontier analysis to determine the cost effectiveness and efficiency of the power distribution companies working under the government. Their model concluded that there is 72.5% average efficiency of this sector, and this further deteriorates the quality of service. Their results are compared to my own evaluation and close matching is found. The distribution network of the country is in the worst state and rapid action needs to be taken to cut down the losses incurred by public companies.
Hussain et al. (2016) applied Holt-Winter and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to forecast the electricity consumption sector-wise. They came to the conclusion that the gap between electricity supply and demand will steadily increase if no appropriate actions are taken. According to their results, the residential sector will eventually have the highest demand. They recommended some solutions, which can finally eradicate the gap between supply and demand.
All these studies contains the detailed information on the electricity sector of Pakistan. Almost all of them research about the energy shortages Pakistan is facing in one way or the other. According to my conclusion, if the best aspects of these studies can be collected into one box and implemented in the current energy policy of the country, they can act as coup de gr â ce to the crisis.
1.4 Materials and Methods
Most of the analysis done in this study is based on the statistics provided by the National Electric and Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) and the Pakistan Private Investment Board (PPIB) in the State of Industry Report 2014. The data include information about all the power plants, historic installed capacities and generation, production and consumption, etc.
Data was also collected from historic archives of plant licenses, policy reports and law papers. The main source of material and data are the government records of statistics, and also studies done on this information by various people. In addition, information was collected from a number of previous studies done by researchers residing within Pakistan as well as abroad. Facts and figures were compared and the best solution was chosen to be presented in this report. The method used for forecasting of electric consumption is explained in details in chapter 4.
Chapter 2 Overview of the Energy Sector in Pakistan
2.1 General Outlook
Pakistan is richly blessed with various forms of energy resources, the effective utilization of which can boost the country’s economy. The energy setup is under direct or indirect control of the government and a number of private agencies. The end consumer include residential, industrial, commercial, transport and agriculture sectors, while the supply mix consists of oil, gas, coal, hydroelectricity and nuclear energy. When Pakistan gained independence in 1947, the energy infrastructure was almost non-existent. As time passed, the structure also developed and new gas and oil reserves were found and new projects started to emerge. Rauf et al. (2015) identifies in their study that the energy sector gained momentum after 1970s and continued to grow until 1990s, during which international investments by World Bank and other agencies were flourishing. According to them, a number of mining projects were developed and power plants were commissioned by the government, including the large hydro, thermal and nuclear setups. After 1990s, the power crisis started to emerge due to factors like political unrest, downfall of economy and terrorist threats. The sector got stagnant and no new major developments were made for resource mining and power generation projects.
In the past decade, the problems have worsened and there is an extreme shortage of available energy. It is also a bi-product of poor management, lack of operations, lack of capital, and lack of planning and solid policies. To add more, the gas reserves of the country are diminishing which is alarming due to the fact that the energy sector is most reliant on this fuel. The country has insufficient oil reserves to substitute for gas, and it is economically impossible for Pakistan to import large amounts of oil or gas in order to meet the energy demand. A massive 186 billion tons of coal reserves were recently discovered, but there is no coal based facilities present and it may take a lot of effort and time for its proper development. Due to under-funding and absence of a sound research and development sector, the renewable energy technology is not yet established in the country, while the potential for it is impressive given the geological properties.
Energy shortage is the most significant player in bringing down the economy of the country. Besides lack of availability of fuel for transportation, heating and industrial use, the electricity sector is suffering the most. Kessides (2013) mentions the amount of shortfall of electric supply to have reached value of over 5000 MW, resulting in power outages of more than 20 hours per day in some villages. The reasons, he identifies include insufficient installed capacity, circular debt, revenue inadequacy, availability and efficiency of existing power plants, power losses and expensive means of production. Besides this, there are a number of studies which identify the same basic fundamentals of the problems, and provides with feasible solutions but unfortunately no substantial developments are being followed by the government as yet and the energy problems persists and getting worse day by day. Rauf et al. (2015) points out that the country can still pull itself out of this crisis with smart future planning and implementation. All available energy resources should be fully exploited, especially indigenous and renewable ones, and conservation of energy should be practiced. It is difficult, but not impossible, to implement a coherent energy policy for a sound energy security of the country
2.2 Primary Energy Supply and Final Consumption
Pakistan is dependent on oil, natural gas, coal, hydro and nuclear for its commercial supply of energy. In 2013, the total production and consumption of primary energy was 64.59 MTOE and 40.18 MTOE respectively (although the production is larger than the consumption, the difference is due to a number of losses which will be later discussed) (NEPRA 2014). Natural gas plays the most significant role in the energy mix of Pakistan, contributing to 48% of the input. It is harvested from local fields, with Sui and Mari being the largest ones. When gas was discovered in 1950’s, the reserves were thought to be virtually ever-lasting. Therefore, the energy infrastructure was molded in a way which was mainly gas dependent. It is being used for power generation, domestic heating and cooking and as vehicle fuel. Unfortunately, the accessible gas reserves are now coming to an end, and with the current consumption rate, it is prone to be finished by 2025-26 (GOP 2011). Consequently, the government has taken certain actions to slow the rapid exhaustion.
The second most important fuel in the energy mix is oil, contributing about 32% of total energy. It is both produced locally and imported. There are a number of refineries which convert the crude oil into refined products. This source is used for power generation and transportation purposes. Due to the scarce reserves of oil in the country, most of it is imported and this results in a burden on the delicate economy of the country.
Coal is a major source of energy all around the world, but in Pakistan it plays an insignificant role in the energy mix. The main consumer of coal are the industries. The hydro source is abundant, especially in the north region of Pakistan. Although it is not fully utilized, but is an important source for electricity generation. As far as nuclear energy is concerned, it is used for power generation. Although the first nuclear plant was established in 1972, there has been no substantial development in this sector since then and it contributes minute energy in the mix.
Currently, Pakistan plays no role in imports or exports of electricity. Only a small amount of electricity is imported from Iran, amounting to 74 MW, for the coastal area of Makran. It is considered to be a test project, and a foundation for upcoming potential projects planned by both governments. The project is being expanded to 100 MW for now, and later will grow up to 3000 MW (The Express Tribune 2016).
2.2.1 Resources and Reserves
Rauf et al. (2015) studied the natural resource reserves in their research and will be outlined in the following text. According to the report, Pakistan has enough resources to make its energy sector self-sufficient, and even export to neighboring countries. Figure
2.1 highlights the energy reserve utilization till year 2030.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 2.1 Energy reserve utilization of Pakistan till 2030 (Meyhoefer 2008)
Coal
Coal deposits in Pakistan are estimated to be 6th largest in world. Although the coal reserves were known at the time of independence, but it was not until 1980 that detailed survey was made in economic and technical grounds. Geographic location of the coal deposits are illustrated in figure 2.2. Most of the 186 billion tons of reserve is found in Thar Desert and Lakhra in Sindh province. Coal quality ranks from lignite to sub- bituminous with a comparatively lower heating value of 6223 Btu/lb to 10288 Btu/lb. This proves the fact that there is low utilization of coal as an energy source due to high processing cost of such quality. There is only one coal-fired power plant present in Pakistan, which used 104,604 tons to produce 40 GWh of electricity in 2013, while most of the coal is consumed by the cement and brick kiln industries.
Oil
According to NEPRA’s State of Industry Report 2014, the recoverable reserves of crude oil in Pakistan are estimated to be 371 million barrels. In 2013, 27.84 million barrels were produced from these reserves. Figure 2.3 illustrates the oil and gas deposits, and it can be seen that most of them are present in the province of Sindh, while some can also be found in the province of KPK.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 2.2 Coal reserves of Pakistan (Alhasan Systems Pvt.Ltd., 2012)
The refining capacity of the country is 18.79 million barrels/year, while 10.75 million barrels was processed in 2013. Total imports of crude oil in 2013 amounts to 7.4 million tons, costing $600 million and most of it is imported from Gulf States. The locally produced and imported crude oil is converted into furnace oil, light diesel oil, high speed diesel and motor spirit. In power generation, fuel oil and high speed diesel are used. In 2013, 7.75 million tons of these two products were used as fuel inputs in thermal plants (NEPRA 2014). The main consumers of oil are the transport and the power sector, with a 90% share of the total consumption.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 2.3 Oil and gas reserves of Pakistan (Alhasan Systems Pvt.Ltd., 2012)
Natural Gas
Extraction of gas requires a heavy investment, with cost recovery time of 10-15 years. In Pakistan, the obtainable reserves of natural gas are estimated to be 24.74 tcf. In 2013, 1,505,841 mcf was produced (equivalent to 32 MTOE). Most of the gas fields are present in the province of Sindh, as shown in figure 2.2, with Mari and Sui being the main ones. There are about 15 companies which are extracting gas from about 190 gas fields.
Hydel power
Pakistan has an ample hydel resource present in the northern areas amongst the mountainous regions. Melting of glaciers from the high peaks allows for a huge potential energy in the flowing water. In spite of this, a very low amount of this energy source is harvested for electricity generation. There are just three main hydel dams which are present in Punjab province. Hydro power is alone considered to be a sufficient source of electric generation, with 65,000 MW of identified projects and 100,000 MW potential, while only 7,117 MW is currently installed (The Express Tribune 2015).
Nuclear energy
Pakistan is among the 30 countries in the world which utilize nuclear energy. Uranium is locally harvested and imported from China. Nuclear energy is used for generation of electricity, and about 787 MW of capacity is installed in Pakistan. Although, the nuclear setup has been present for more than four decades in Pakistan, but the growth has been close to none. There are four main uranium deposit sites present in the country, with an estimated amount of 1160 tons (OECD 2010).
Renewable energy
The geological nature of Pakistan provides favorable conditions for renewable energy resources. Due to situation near the equator, there is plenty of sunshine with an estimated potential of 50,000 MW for solar power generation. The sunshine lasts about 7-8 hours per day in the provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan. Similarly, the wind potential is estimated to be 20,000 MW and the government is collaborating with a number of international companies in order to deploy wind power generation setup in the country. A number of projects are already in operation and a few major ones are pipelined and proposed. Biogas, geothermal and ocean wave energies are also abundant, but little or no work has been initiated in these fields. The government should research projects to calculate the feasibility of these renewable projects and approach investors in order grow this setup for sufficient supply of energy. Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB) has been recently setup in order to pursue development in this sector.
2.2.2 Primary Energy Supplies
Production of primary components includes coal, crude oil, oil products, gas, nuclear and hydro. In energy budget 2013, 64.59 MTOE was the net energy supply consisting of coal, oil, gas, nuclear and hydro. Figure 2.4 illustrates the energy supplies in Pakistan. The key component in the energy mix, as mentioned earlier, is clearly natural gas with around 48% of share. It is followed by oil, with around 33% of the share. Hydro power is one of the first resources used in Pakistan for electricity generation. Although it does amount to a significant value, but if used to full potential, it can supply ample energy to the whole country alone. Coal supplies a small amount to the energy, around 6%. Nuclear energy is used for electricity generation, with around 1-2% of share in the energy mix.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 2.4 Primary energy supply by fuel type, 2009-2013
Following are the import figures for 2013:
- Coal: 2.557 MTOE (2.9% of total primary energy)
- Crude oil: 7.819 MTOE (9.1% of total primary energy
- Oil products: 11.651 MTOE (13.5% of total primary energy)
- Total imports: 22.027 MTOE (25.6% of total primary energy)
The figures show that Pakistan is not heavily reliant on imports of energy because of weak economic structure, less bilateral correspondence and extreme political corruption. This is one of the major reasons of energy shortages. As a comparison, Turkey imports more than 75% of its energy products and therefore the energy supply and demand is matched and the country faces no major power crisis.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 2.5 Energy mix, 2013
2.2.3 Final Energy Consumption
The main forms of final energy are gas, oil, coal, LPG and electricity. These supplies are provided to the consumer end; including industrial, transport, residential, commercial, and agricultural sectors. In 2013, 40 MTOE of final energy was consumed. Figure 2.6 shows the final energy consumption by resource type in Pakistan. The consumption of oil and gas has a slightly rising trend between the years shown in above diagram. This can be explained by the increase in electricity generation as well as industrial and domestic consumption.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 2.6 Final energy consumption by fuel type, 2009-2013
The transition of primary to final energy results in an inevitable loss in the form of heat, mechanical motion etc. Figure 2.7 shows the primary energy vs final energy, where the area in between is the loss. In 2013, 24.41 MTOE of energy accounted for wastes and losses which makes 37.7% of total energy. This energy loss can be decreased, but not fully cancelled as the laws of thermodynamics explains. The causes of the lost energy includes auxiliary consumption by plants and refineries, heat and mechanical losses, and other miscellaneous causes like theft or unaccountability.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 2.7 Primary supply vs Consumption of energy, 2009-2013
The heaviest consumer is the residential sector, shown in figure 2.8. Mostly, gas and electricity are the two main components in this sector. The transport sector includes oil and gas consumption. Industrial sector includes coal, oil, gas and electricity consumption. The non-energy uses are mostly for chemical productions like mobile oil etc.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 2.8 Sector-wise energy consumption, 2013
Pakistan only exports 0.8 MTOE of crude oil, which is a minute number. The overall production and consumption scenario can be explained by the energy budget, which provides the balancing of production, imports/exports and consumption. A detailed statistics of the energy budget of 2013 are given in tabular form in table A.1 in Appendix A (International Energy Agency 2014).
Chapter 3 Electricity Infrastructure of Pakistan
3.1 Overview
In 1947, the newly formed state of Pakistan inherited an intalled capacity of 60 MW of power plants for a population of 31.5 million (ICCI 2011). Figure 3.1 shows the details of the electricity system of Pakistan. Electricity sector in Pakistan consists of power plants including thermal, hydro and nuclear with a transmission and distribution system. All of the hydro plants are present in the provinces of KPK and Punjab, which is in the northern part of the country. The thermal plants are situated mostly in the main areas, including provinces of Punjab and Sindh.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.1 Electricity infrastructure map, 2015 (NEPRA 2014)
It can be seen in the figure that only four thermal plants are present in the province of Baluchistan (east side of the country). The main transmission line of 500 kVA runs from lower KPK, through Punjab and ends up in Sindh. Rest of the areas are served by smaller transmission network. Karachi Electric Supply Co. (KESC) and rest of Sindh is delivered with electricity from the northern Pakistan through this main transmission line. Generally, the country has a biased distribution of the electric sector components, with Punjab and Sindh being the most favored areas. The reasons for this are the population density and the presence of metropolitan cities.
The country has been facing electricity shortages right from its inception to present day. Initially, the industries were hit by the crisis, and now the whole country is suffering. The Power Policy 1994 was aimed to overcome this newly built crisis. It was identified that the demand growth has risen from 4% per annum to 7% per annum from 1990s to 2000s, but the policy failed to fulfill this demand growth in every aspect (Rauf et al. 2105). Throughout this study, factors leading to the shortages will be identified.
Change in economy and electricity generation are strongly correlated and the figure 3.2 shows that the growth rate of GDP remain low with those of power generation. Trade and economy have been severely affected by this drop in GDP and industrial output has dropped by 15-35% in recent years (Iqbal et al. 2013). Rauf et al. (2015) also identifies the importance electricity and GDP. They mention in their report that for 1% increase in GDP, an increase of 1.25% in electricity generation is required.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.2 Correlation between electricity and GDP growth, 2001-2013 (Iqbal et al. 2013)
3.2 Structural Organization and Deregulation of the Electricity Sector
Timeline showing major development in the electricity structure of Pakistan is given in the figure 3.3. Before independence, Karachi was one of the main cities of India and in 1913, the government formed KESC to provide power to the city and its adjoining areas. After independence in 1947, there was no distinguished authority for regulation of the power sector. As the power needs increased, the country needed a body to administer the sector, hence Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) was formed in 1959 (Iqbal et al. 2013). The sector saw satisfactory performance and growth but the country started to face electricity shortages in mid 1980s
The effort to restructure Pakistan’s power sector in mid 1980s was hence initiated in order to cope up with the power shortages. Incompetent governance and heavy losses within the system were becoming a hindrance to an uninterrupted supply of electricity, therefore it was realized that power capacity, generation and transmission efficiency and expansion could only be achieved by intervention of the private sector (Malik 2010). Prior to this, power generation in Pakistan was a monopoly, completely state-owned and operated (Hagler Bailly Pakistan 2003). The first private power policy was instituted in 1985, and was aimed to encourage private investors to take part in electricity generation.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.3 Timeline showing major developments in the electricity structure
In 1986, the government introduced BOO (Build-Own-Operate) investment model, but there was a lack of sufficient incentives to attract the private investors (Ullah 2013). At this stage, the electricity infrastructure was exclusively under the government bodies, the WAPDA and KESC. All segments of value chain were concentrated within these entities.
Later, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), International Monetary Funds (IMF) and World Bank motivated the restructuring of this system through institutional changes to improve the efficiency and the quality of the system. Consequently, major steps towards deregulation were taken in the Power Policy of 1997-98. Privatization of the structure was initiated and WAPDA was unbundled, however only generation sector was opened to market competition while transmission and distribution were separated from WAPDA into public companies (Ullah 2013). KESC remained intact, and was privatized as it is (25.6% still under GOP, while 71.2% was transferred to a foreign consortium) and is linked to the remaining system for electricity purchase only (KESC 2012).
Unbundling of WAPDA resulted in creation of 10 distribution companies (DISCOs), 4 generation companies (GENCOs), with thermal power generation license, and a transmission company, National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) (ICCI 2011). However, hydel generation was still under the control of WAPDA. The figure 3.4 illustrates the surgery in a simplified manner. At present, components in dark background are the unbundled parts of WAPDA. Electricity is generated by independent power producers (IPPs), GENCOs and WAPDA and sent to NTDC grid, after which it is distributed by the DISCOs to the consumer end.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.4 Managerial structure of Pakistan’s electricity sector 2015
Regions of Pakistan are sub-divided into 10 DISCOs of each division which supply electricity to their corresponding areas. The KESC handles its own distribution and transmission responsibilities, and is connected to a few private thermal plants (IPP’s) for electricity purchase. Besides the efforts of the government to utilize the benefits of privatization, only thermal generation is subjected to privatization, even to this day.
To manage this whole newly formed system under the Power Policy of 1997-98, Pakistan Electric and Power CO. (PEPCO), a separate agency within WAPDA, was created in the same year. It was aimed to consolidate the organizational setup, and induce coordination and integration between the thermal generation (GENCO’s), distribution (DISCO’s) and transmission (NTDC) bodies. All the thermal power plants operated by the GENCO’s comes under the command of PEPCO. The Central Power Purchase Agency (CPPA) was also setup in 1998 to coordinate the payments within the structure. Again, under the 1997- 98 law, private investments in thermal generation were promoted. Hence, the system remained to be a public monopoly therefore, another body was formed to regulate the public sector entities in 1997 i.e., National Electric Power and Regulatory Authority (NEPRA). Malik (2010) noted that “National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) was created under the NEPRA Act 1997-8 to ensure fair competition and consumer, producer and seller protection”. Coherently, to monitor the side of private sector of power, Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB) was formed, providing added security and incentive measures to the private entrepreneurs, both existing and potential. The deregulation of the sector has been assessed in a number of studies, but the conclusion remains the same that although the expectation was positive, but the results have been almost fruitless.
After the Power policy of 1998, a number of new policies were introduced in 2002, 2006, 2008 and 2013 consisting mainly of promotions to attract private sector for mining indigenous resources (mainly hydel) and to facilitate public as well as public-private partnerships. According to my assessment of these policies, only minor changes have been made from the original Power Policy of 1998 which was discussed in details. It is not much worth going into the details of these policies.
Recently, a U.S based company known as Hagler Bailly Pakistan Ltd. is working with the GOP and private power producers to propose insightful endeavors, both in generation and transmission sector. Evaluation is being conducted by Hagler Bailly with other firms to privatize three of the GENCO’s, including GEPCO, LESCO and IESCO. Also a new power system model is being developed by Advanced Engineering Association International (AEAI) and Hagler Bailly to improve the overall electricity structure (Hagler Bailly Pakistan 2014).
As far as the nuclear setup of Pakistan is concerned, the Pakistan Atomic Energy Committee (PAEC) was established in 1955. It is a government authority which owns and operates the three existing nuclear power plants. Construction of the first plant started in 1965 and the production commenced in 1972. After this, two more plants were established in 2000 and 2011. Pakistan is yet to reach its ambition on developing 8000+ MW of nuclear capacity.
3.3 Power Plants and Installed Capacity
A power plant is a unit which converts primary energy into electricity through mechanical motion. In Pakistan, fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas, hydro, nuclear, renewables such as wind and solar are used to generate electricity. Generally, almost all the Hydro plants are owned by the government. For thermal plants, the IPP’s have a larger share (in terms of number of plants as well as installed capacity). The nuclear plants present in Pakistan are under the ownership of PAEC. As for now, there is no notable development in the renewable sector (wind and solar) but the GOP is actively working on new frameworks to bring in the use of renewable energy to make the energy mix more sustainable. Most of the data in this section is collected from the State of Industry Report 2014 by NEPRA.
The details of some major power plants are given in the Appendix B. More details including power plant-wise generation, capacity, capacity factor and cost of generation are all included in table C.6 in Appendix C. Technical specifications of thermal plants are provided in table C.7 in Appendix C.
A considerable growth of generation capacity can be seen during the lifetime of the country from 60 MW in 1947 to 25348 MW in 2014. The main sources of power generation are thermal and hydro, while the minor ones include nuclear and renewables. In 2014, thermal was 68%, hydro 28%, nuclear 3%, wind 1% and solar <1% of the total installed capacity. Table 3.1 gives the installed capacities from 2010 to 2014 of each type of power plants.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table 3.1 Source-type installed electric generation capacities, 2010-014
In thermal power plants, the major chunk of power generation resource is furnace oil, diesel and natural gas. This means that Pakistan’s electricity is mostly produced from an expensive means, as most of the crude oil and oil products are imported. After the privatization law of 1985, the GOP had amended the power law in such a way as to attract a market based power economy, which flooded investments in power plants that use fossil fuels such as oil and gas (NEPRA 2014).
Meanwhile, only minor hydro generating units are open for privatization which resulted in a stunted growth of this sector. The nuclear alternate is totally in the hands of the government and the sector could not grow due to continuous economic and political crisis. As for the renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, only recently the Alternate
Energy Development Board (AEDB) has been established to help promote sustainability with integration of these renewable resources into the energy mix.
Figure 3.5 indicates that there was a satisfactory growth in both hydro and thermal power generating capacities until around 1995. After this period, it can be seen that increase in only thermal capacity is present, while the rest are almost stagnant.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.5 Capacity growth, 1980-2014 (tabular data provided in table C.1 in Appendix C)
In fact, the graph of overall capacity is similar to that of thermal capacity, which tells the close dependence of power generation on fossil fuels. Up until 1988, thermal and hydro installed capacities were approximately the same but thermal capacity started to rise and the gap started to increase further and further as new thermal plants were developed while nothing new was being done in the hydro sector. The gradient of total capacity increases after 1993 due to commissioning of new IPP power plants, and continues up until 2004, after which the country started to face major power shortages. A stunted economic advancement and unsteady government hampered the growth of power sector explained by the low gradient between 2004 and 2009, when no major additions were made to the total installed capacity. With the change of government, the period between 2010 and 2012 saw improvements and can be seen by the increasing gradient. About 10 new thermal power plant projects were commenced in this period, giving considerable rise to the installed capacity.
The small rise in hydro capacity at around 2003 is due to building of the Ghazi Barotha dam in 2003, and after that no major projects have been developed except small private hydro plants. The nuclear capacity line shows that there has been almost no increase in this sector. Only recently there has been some development in the renewable sectors of solar and wind after the establishment of the AEDB. The total capacity shows a general rise, but this amount of expansion has been insufficient to meet the demand and supply. In hypothetical sense, this line should match the characteristics of an exponentially growing one (a continuously increasing gradient) in order to maintain continuous electricity supply to the ever-growing population and demand of the country. The data shows an average increase of 655 MW of capacity per year.
Figure 3.6 shows the share of total generating capacity between public and private sector in the PEPCO area (KESC is excluded). Tabular data provided in table C.2 in Appendix C. In the PEPCO area (all Pakistan except Karachi), generation is contributed by thermal, hydro and nuclear. Although there are over 30 thermal IPP’s in the PEPCO area, still the larger share of total generating capacity belongs to the government. This is due to the government ownership of all the hydro plants present in the country.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.6 Public-Private total capacity ownership in PEPCO area, 1990-2014
Major contribution of IPP’s generation into the electric grid started in 1997, with the commissioning of KAPCO and HUBCO power plants. The trend continued to increase up until 2003, where the capacity share of private ownership decreased due to the commencement of the new public owned Ghazi Barotha hydro plant, which contributed 1450 MW capacity. The trend again started to increase as new IPP’s were adding to the grid till 2011, after which there has been no new private investment in the thermal sector. Meanwhile a few additions were made to the publicly owned power plants (CHASNUPP nuclear Extension, Khan Khwar hydro plant and Jinnah hydro plant) which explains the slight downfall of IPP share and increase in public share of the total capacity after 2011. Currently, 41% of share is held by the IPP’s and 59% by government in the PEPCO area.
Thermal Generation Capacity
Thermal power generation has a capacity of 17,209 MW and contributes to 67% of the total mix. This is due to the large private share, showing that the government gave impetus to private establishments.
Currently, private share is 65% compared to 35% of the public sector in terms of capacity, as shown in figure 3.7. The trend of private owner-ship is an increasing one. After mid 1990’s, the increase has been maximum. From 1995 to 2000, an increase of 4024 MW can be seen in IPP’s capacity, and in a span of 34 years, 462 MW of thermal capacity is added each year on average basis. As mentioned in the previous section, the total increase of capacity per year has been 655 MW which makes thermal contribution of 70% in terms of this increase (this only is the contribution of IPP’s in the total rise in capacity per year). The sharp increase in IPP’s capacity in the year 2006 is because of the privatization of KESC, when all their plants were handed over to a multinational firm, The Abraaj Group (Abraaj 2015).
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.7 Public-Private thermal capacity ownership, 1990-2014
The public sector has, however, seen less development through time. From 1990 to 2014, an increase of 1588 MW is seen. This makes a per year average increase of 106 MW. A few number of power plants have been added under the GENCO’s after early 1990’s, and they generally have lesser generation efficiency compared to the IPP’s plants. The installation of a new unit in Guddu Plant and building of Nandipur Power Project contributes to the slight increase in public capacity in 2014 after 8 years. All these facts points to the direction that the GOP is not interested, or unable to, in investing into new power projects. Other facts include depletion of natural gas and expensive import of oil.
Hydro Generation Capacity
At present, the total hydro installed capacity is 7117 MW, which is a minute number compared to the so-called 65,000 MW potential. The only major exploitation of this indigenous resource are through the three main power dams namely Tarbela, Mangla and Ghazi Barotha, summing up a total generation capacity of 5928 MW. This is approximately 24% of the total installed capacity installed in the country.
WAPDA is the sole owner of the hydro capacity installed as can be seen in figure 3.8 except a mere 214 MW owned by independent parties. In a span of 15 years, the hydro capacity has risen from 4809 MW to 6733 MW, indicating an average increase of 128 MW per year. The figure indicates that the government is adamant in holding the hydro sector, as only around 3% of the capacity is owned by the independent parties. Before 2007, there was only one private hydro project in operation which is Jagran Dam of 30 MW installed capacity.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.8 Public-Private hydro capacity ownership, 1999-2013
Nuclear Generation Capacity
Currently, the total installed capacity of nuclear is mere 787 MW. Not much development has been made in this sector since its introduction in 1972. Initially, only 137 MW of capacity was installed, which grew to 462 in 2001 when the CHASNUPP power plant was inaugurated. The latest development is the CHASNUPP Extension which provides another 325 MW summing the total to 787 MW.
Renewable Generation Capacity (Wind & Solar)
This sector is clearly yet to be exploited, as can be seen from figure 3.5. At this time, 235 MW of wind generation capacity is installed. This sector is under experimental phase, and might turn out to be one of the problem solvers for Pakistan’s energy problems. The Quaid-e-Azam solar park has a capacity of 1000 MW but it is yet to be operational. In 2016, the total renewable capacity is to be increased to approximately 1500 MW according to the GOP.
3.4 Electricity Generation
Generation review is very much analogical to the installed capacity, which means that the main source of increase in power generation are the fossil fuels, while the hydro sector has remained pretty much unchanged since 1990. The historic power generation trend can be seen in figure 3.9. Detailed tabular data given in table C.4 in Appendix C. In the year 2014, 106,051 GWh of electricity was generated out of which 68,196 GWh was produced by thermal plants. The GOP has stopped issuing license for new natural gas power plants, which means that the oil industry will be further burdened and generation will continue to be expensive because of oil imports (GOP 2015).
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.9 Electricity generation, 1980-2014
The average increase of generation per year is 2681 GWh from 1980 to 2014. The general trend of total generation is an increasing one, other than the two crests in the year 1998 and 2009. This is not due to drop in installed capacity (which has been consistent or increasing in these years) but due to the low plant utilization factor observed in these years and lack of availability of fuel (NEPRA 2014). The total generation trend closely follows that of the thermal generation, indicating the close dependence. The thermal generation saw a slight drop in recent years due to the following reasons (NEPRA 2014):-
i) Shortage of locally harvested natural gas
ii) Increasing inefficiency in the public sector power plants
iii) Non-operational units of the public sector power plants
Increase in power generation per year on average basis in the thermal sector is 1824 GWh, which is 68% of the total increase per year. The generation of hydroelectricity sector has seen less increase compared to thermal. The average increase per year is 704 GWh, which is 26% of the total increase of 2681 GWh. It can be seen that before 1989, more electricity was generated by hydro power compared to thermal. After this, the electricity structure of Pakistan started relying more on the fossil fuel based production which indicates that the government was more interested in quick solutions and short term planning rather than utilizing the indigenous hydro resource. In 2014, 32,673 GWh of electricity was produced by hydro plants which is 31% of the total generation.
The three nuclear power plants have not been a big impact on the total production statistics and produced 4501 GWh in 2014. The resources like wind and solar are yet to play a major role in the total energy mix, with a contribution of <1 GWh of generation (NEPRA 2014).
The shift from hydro based generation to thermal based can be seen in figure 3.10. Such major reliance on natural gas and oil is an alarming situation in current era, where prices are ever increasing.
The government has to re-route the system and balance this dependency between the other sources of generation. Building of major hydro plants is a major commitment and the GOP has clearly failed in doing so in the past two decades and hence bringing down the total share of hydro generation from 59% to 31% between 1980 and 2014.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.10 Generation source comparison 1980 and 2014
The highest generation and the percentage share power plant-wise for the year 2014 is given as (percentages are of total generation):
i) Hydro (public): Tarbela Dam 15178 GWh (14.3%)
ii) Thermal (public GENCO): Thermal Power Station Muzaffargarh 5132 GWh (4.8%)
iii) Thermal (private IPPs): HUBCO Power Project 7086 GWh (6.7%)
iv) Thermal (KESC): Bin Qasim Power Plant I&II 7405 GWh (7%)
v) Nuclear (PAEC): CHASNUPP-II 2208 GWh (2.1%)
These five generators alone accounted for 35% of the total generation in 2014, indicating their vital importance in providing electricity to the country’s power grid. If any one of these generators may fail for one reason or the other, the country will face a major blackout until the error is fixed.
3.4.1 Fuel Consumption and Efficiency of Thermal Plants
This section will identify the amount of energy input, output and the overall costs involved in electricity generation. The data provided in the State of Industry Report 2014 by NEPRA contains data of only OPEX, which includes the operation costs only. By calculating energy input and output, an analysis on generation frequency is also provided in the coming sections.
Input Energy for Thermal Electricity Production
The discussion of primary fuels used to generate electricity including gas, oil and coal will be done in this section. The percentage of thermal installed capacity was 67% and generation 64% of the total in 2014. The statistics for different input fuels and their percentage shares are given in table 3.2.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table 3.2 Fossil fuel input of thermal power plants, 2009-2013
Table 3.2 shows the high input values of energy from gas and furnace oil which accounts to more than 92.32% in 2013. Although most of the electricity produced is by coal in most of the countries, in Pakistan it accounts to an insubstantial value. As for the annual growth of input energy, there is no specific trend. In 2011, the growth value dropped by 8.22% whereas the electricity produced was almost same as in the previous year. This indicates a possible decrease in losses, an improved generation efficiency or a combination of both and other key factors.
Figure 3.11 indicates that oil consumption has generally been consistent, except in the year 2010 during which electricity generation through thermal power was the highest in the history of Pakistan. The use of diesel oil is negligible compared to furnace oil and gas as there are very less generators which run on this type of fuel. There is only one coal powered generator which explains the small amount of coal used in the generation mix.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.11 Input fuel energy for thermal electric generation, 2009-2013
The consumption of gas is controlled by the government and is planned to reduce because of its increasing unavailability. Some IPP’s power plants for which the primary fuel was gas are urged to use the secondary fuel type which is diesel oil. The generation structure of the thermal sector is starting to be a less gas dependent one due to cancellation of further licenses for natural gas power plants and the government’s urge to use secondary fuel for IPP’s whose primary fuel is gas.
Output Electric Energy from Thermal Generation
The primary fuels including oil, gas and coal are directly converted to electricity by the power plants. Not all energy is converted to electricity, where heat is also a form of output. In some countries, this heat is sold for various purposes, but no such case has been seen in Pakistan. Corresponding to the inputs, the output follows the same trend, as shown in figure 3.12. Output generation from natural gas has decreased in recent years, while slightly increased from oil. Coal remains to be a negligible player in the output generation. The total output trend is almost consistent for the years between 2010 and 2014.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.12 Output electric energy by thermal plants, 2010-2014
Efficiency of Thermal Power Plants (Input and Output energy comparison)
With the analysis of input energy and the output electricity, we can determine the overall thermal efficiency of plants. Figure 3.13 shows the improvement in thermal production efficiency of various countries. In a quick review, it can be seen that generally the efficiency of thermal plants is about 40-50%. Norway and Sweden have the highest efficiency reaching at 90% (although according to the European Environment Agency, there might be some error in this value). The output here is considered in terms of total electricity produced as well as any output heat sold to a third party.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.13 Improvement in plant efficiency world-wide (European Environment Agency 2015)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table 3.4 Input vs output thermal energy, 2010-2014 (NEPRA 2014)
According to the input/output energy analysis in the case of Pakistan, the generation efficiency can be seen to be around 38% between 2010 to 2013. The rest of the 62% is either converted to heat/lost or used by the plant. This is a down side as in the case of thermal generation, the input fuel has to be bought or extracted compared to the already available ‘free fuels’ like hydro potential energy, solar energy and/or wind energy. The GOP buys most of the oil from international markets, further burdening the economic conditions of the country.
The efficiency needs to be checked as bulk power is generated by these power plants. According to the government statistics, the private sector shows a better overall performance in terms of efficiency compared to the public sector (NEPRA 2010). The major reasons for this are modern management practices and better and new equipment owned by the IPP’s compared to the public-owned plants. The government should adopt better managerial practices and come in par with the private sector, and also arrange for local as well as international inspection teams which can monitor the operation and provide feasible solutions and techniques to improve the overall efficiency.
3.4.2 Cost of Generation
In electrical power generation, the distinct ways of generating electricity incur significantly different costs. Primary data for generation and fuel cost is provided for hydro and thermal generation in the State of Industry Report 2014 by NEPRA in terms of OPEX only. However, the main focus is the thermal generation cost as the primary input fuel is coal, gas or oil and this has to be bought by a third party which results in an input investment. For hydro, the primary input is raw potential energy of water, which basically costs nothing. Cost analysis of the power plants is provided in the following sections.
Thermal Electricity Generation Cost
Due to lack of long term energy planning, Pakistan was forced to apply short term solution to meet the supply and demand of electricity through comparatively larger investment in thermal generation facilities after 1990’s. This fact has ever since increased the burden on the delicate economy of the state, while recently this sector has started facing difficulty owing to the fact that the local natural gas reserves are almost finished and imports are further crippling the economy.
The cost of electric power generation through thermal means is relatively much higher than that of hydroelectric power generation. Although the initial cost of deploying a thermal power station is lower than that of a dam, but the operating cost is more due to purchasing of input fuel. Table 3.5 below shows sector wise production, cost/kWh and the total cost of production. Again, all the costs shown in this section are OPEX.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table 3.5 Thermal generation cost, 2010-2014 (data taken from State of Industry Report 2014 by NEPRA)
Cost differs considerably between IPPs, GENCOs and KESC. The cost/unit of the IPP’s is the highest, ranging from 13-19.3 Rs/kWh from 2010 to 2014. The lowest is given by KESC, ranging from 4.8-8 Rs/kWh for the same range of years. The average costs/kWh for these 5 years are:
1. IPP’s: 16.5 Rs/kWh
2. GENCO’s: 10.6 Rs/kWh
3. KESC: 7 Rs/kWh
4. Total country: 13.7 Rs/kWh
As mentioned previously in this study, the largest chunk of thermal generation is contributed by the IPPs, which means that most of the generation is from expensive means. According to figure 3.14, the cost gradient lowers because of decrease in worldwide cost of oil. Although generation by the GENCO’s sector is cheaper, but it contributes much less power to the grid, and is comparatively less efficient. The plants under this sector are the base load plants, which basically explains the cheaper cost. If this sector can further be developed, the overall generation cost can be lowered. But sadly, this sector has been stunted since long ago, and the GOP is aiming to privatize it.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.14 Thermal generation cost comparison between GENCOs, IPPs and KESC, 2009-2014
Hydro Electricity generation Cost
The main cost involving a hydro setup is the plant construction cost, dam building cost, clearing land and resettlement costs etc. There is a minor operating cost which may include labor cost, maintenance and repairs and other miscellaneous costs which do not add up to a high amount. Especially in developing countries like Pakistan, this helps relieve economic burden as there is no need to import primary fuels such as fossil fuels and uranium. It also helps to prevent flooding and provide water for irrigation, which further helps the vast agriculture setup of Pakistan.
Table 3.6 shows the cost involved in generation. In NEPRA’s report, total cost is provided and generation are provided, making it possible to calculate RS/kWh. The cost varies between 0.9-1.1 Rs/kWh. According to the latest conversion rate from Rupees to US Dollars, this cost is between 0.01-0.02 USD/kWh approximately. Considering the small deviation of the values, the trend is more or less consistent throughout the years.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table 3.6 Hydro electricity generation cost, 2010-2014
The cost of generation is considerably lower than that of thermal generation, with an average of 1 Rs/kWh. However, the main issue which is faced to build a new dam is the high construction cost, landscape planning issues and economic burden due to this high cost. Conclusively, there are long term benefits for building a dam but the economy may suffer in view of short term period.
3.4.3 Capacity Factor
The capacity factor is described as:
illustration not visible in this excerpt
It is basically a ratio between the actual outputs over a period of time, to the potential output if full capacity is utilized. In Pakistan, the combined capacity factor is close to the 50% value according to statistics from NEPRA, and this signifies that half of the power plant potential is utilized.
Figure 3.15 shows the source-wise capacity factor of the power plants in Pakistan. Before 1995, the capacity factor of hydro plants was comparatively higher but after addition of new generator units in these plants, the capacity factor dropped due to possible reasons like less efficient machines. The CF value for thermal plants is non-changing as this is the main source of electricity and the operation statistics have therefore been consistent. For the nuclear plants, the value shows a rise after 2000. The nuclear plant technology generally has a higher CF value, and after the electricity shortage that hit Pakistan, the GOP decided to increase this to a considerable potential.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.15 Source-wise capacity factor, 1980-2014
The value of CF varies from fuel type and the design of the plant. Plants always have a CF of lower than 100% due to the following reasons (EIA 2015).
- A plant can be out of service due to equipment failure or routine maintenance. This can be seen more in the case of base load plants, as they are operated continuously at high output due to the lower cost per unit. In the case of Pakistan, the plants under the GENCOs are prone to lower CF values.
- Output may be cut down when electricity is not needed or because the price of electricity maybe too low to have an economical production. This is mostly in the case of peaking power plants, which operate very less throughout the year as their electricity cost is higher.
- When there is an addition of generator unit in hydro dams. The fuel energy remains same but peak generation output is increased while CF decreases
3.5 Transmission and Distribution of Electricity
This section includes the discussion based on the transmission by the NTDC and distribution by the DISCOs. According to many studies and speculations, the transmission and distribution sector of Pakistan is the worst performing once, with huge energy and financial losses. It is therefore insightful to examine the performance of this sector in order to point out the reasons for this under-performance.
3.5.1 Transmission
Transmission is the nervous system of the electricity supply chain with high and extra high voltage lines. Generation plants are connected to demand centers by a well-organized network including power transformation stations and control centers. Currently in Pakistan, there are two companies engaged in the transmission industry. One is National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC), which operates in the PEPCO area and is a public sector company, and the other is KESC, which operates in Karachi and its surrounding areas and comes under the control of private sector. According to the government statistics, the NTDC carries the role of transmitting power from generating stations to distribution companies through a network of 500kV and 220kV power lines.
Presently, NTDC consists of 13 grid stations with 500 kV lines, and 35 grid stations with 220 kV transmission lines. The total length of 500 kV lines are 5183 KM, and 220 kV are 9104 KM (NEPRA 2014). In addition to this, KESC operates 75 grid stations and 1248 km of transmission lines (including 220kV, 132 kV and 66 kV) which are both overhead and underground lines (NEPRA 2014). The high voltage lines are stretched from north to south along the Indus River Valley area, which consists of majority of the population of Pakistan. However, the spread of transmission does not cover the whole land and around one third of the population does not have access to electricity (Padgett 1992). Figure 3.16 shows the major power lines across the country. The most scarcely fed area is the province of Baluchistan and with the least number of electrified village, while Punjab has the highest number of electric facilities. (Aamir 2016) realizes in his report that the electric demand of Baluchistan region is 1650 MW, while only 300-400 MW is supplied. This causes damage to the agriculture sector at a great level as 80% of the population’s livelihood is dependent on this.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.16 Transmission line network in Pakistan map
Correct utilization of the transmission lines and power transformers plays a significant role in technical and financial terms. If the system is underutilized, transmission companies may face a financial loss due to lack of utilization, while if it is overloaded, the hardware can be damaged. The performance standards of T&D will be discussed in subsequent topics.
3.5.2 Distribution
After the unbundling of WAPDA in 1997-98, the distribution system gained a separate status. Currently there are two vertically integrated systems in operation which are:
1. Distribution Companies (DISCOs) operating under PEPCO for all of Pakistan except Karachi.
2. KESC’s own distribution system which provides services to Karachi and its adjoining areas.
A number of previous studies offer details about the distribution sector. Ullah (2013) and Rauf et al. (2015) describes the structure and duties of the distribution companies. The DISCOs are responsible for correct and efficient distribution of electricity, the primary role being operation, maintenance and development of grid stations and transmission networks of 132kV and below. These companies purchase electricity directly from NTDC, which is the transmission company as described earlier. KESC’s distribution system is connected to its own transmission system, and does not deal with inter-company sale/purchase. The end users of these distribution companies are classified as residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural and street lighting. The table 3.7 gives a brief information about the distribution companies in Pakistan.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table 3.7 Distribution companies in Pakistan (NEPRA 2014)
There are a total of ten public DISCOs, as shown in figure 3.17, and two private distribution companies. The DISCOs are administered by PEPCO and NEPRA combined, while KESC handles its own distribution responsibilities. The TESCO and SEPCO are newly formed companies and were made because of increasing demand of the areas they work in. Before these two, the adjoining area’s company was responsible for supply. PESCO was distributing in tribal areas and HESCO in Sukkur and adjoining areas before the creation of these two new bodies.
Bahria Town is a private housing society owned by Mr. Riaz Malik. It was developed in 1996 and holds an asset worth of US$20 billion (Bahriatown.com 2004). It provides the residents through its own grid stations. This is the only residential area in Pakistan which does not face load shedding and power outages. It was granted the distribution license in 2010.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.17 Distribution companies operating areas map (NEPRA 2014)
Besides these distribution companies, there are other numerous private ones also, including Bahria town. Most of them supplies power to their partner companies or sell to NTDC at a very small scale. One of the companies, Engro Chemical Pakistan limited, is a captive power producer and was given distribution license by NEPRA in 2009. A captive power producer generates and distributes electricity for self-consumption. The performance in terms of System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) and System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) of the DISCOs are analyzed in Appendix E.
3.5.3 Transmission and Distribution Losses
This section will give an insight of the losses faced of transmission and distribution system of Pakistan. The generated electricity passes through huge complex networks, including lines, cables, transformers and grids, in order to reach the end users. When this electricity is transmitted, some energy is lost as heat and other forms and it is technically impossible to evade this loss at hundred percent level.
The two main types of losses can be summarized as (EEP - Electrical Engineering Portal 2013):
1. Technical losses: These are the inevitable losses resulting from energy dissipation from electric components such as wires, resistors, transformers etc. These losses cannot be fully cancelled but can be diminished by using better equipment and techniques, such as high voltage-low current transmission throw long lines.
2. Non-technical losses: This type of loss can be categorized as power theft, metering errors and data error. These losses can be evaded by better management, public awareness and control, law implementations etc.
The difference in the generated and billed amount is the overall loss of energy, and is calculated as:
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Distribution losses play a major role in the overall loss of energy in Pakistan. They are generally accounted for 50% of the total losses. In Pakistan, the distribution losses go as high as 20% of the total energy (Ullah 2013). The main players of the distribution losses in Pakistan are the poor performing distribution companies, lack of technical expertise, old equipment and theft (Rauf et al. 2015).
Figure 3.18 shows the transmission losses versus units for transmission (in GWh) for the NTDC system (KESC not included). A slight improvement in the transmission losses is seen during the last 10 years. In 2004, the transmission losses were 5054 GWh (7.5% of total) compared to 2327 GWh (2.5% of total) in 2014, and they are decreasing with increasing energy input. This indeed is a considerable improvement, keeping in view the ever deteriorating overall conditions of the electricity infrastructure of the country. This improvement accounts to the better performance standard of the NTDC, both management and technical wise, in the recent years (NEPRA 2014).
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.18 Units generated vs transmission losses, 2004-2014
Coming to the weakest link in the losses section, the distribution losses, the data illustration is shown below for public DISCOs (KESC not included) in figure 3.19. In 2014, the distribution losses accounted for 16278 GWh compared to 11151 GWh in 2004. This indicates that the distribution companies are not considering any improvement measures and these losses are ever increasing. These losses accounts for total wastage, and to evade or diminish these losses, the distribution companies should take considerable actions.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.19 Units for distribution vs distribution losses, 2004-2014
A comparison of the transmission and distribution losses is shown in figure 3.20 in terms of percentage for public DISCOs (KESC not included). It can be seen that there is no improvement in the distribution losses, and the decrease in the overall losses is the result of decreased transmission losses. The distribution losses are mainly non-technical ones and surely these can be evaded if necessary actions are initiated.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.20 Transmission, distribution and total losses, 2004-2014
In first world countries like Germany, France and UK, the T&D losses are less than 10%, compared to 20% in Pakistan. Considering the fact that there is already a power deficit in Pakistan, these extreme losses pulls down the effort of improving the supply and demand gap. As a first step, the GOP should consider an overhaul to minimize these losses if any steps are to be taken in improving the power system of the country.
3.6 Demand and Consumption of Electricity
The consumption is mostly saturated in the urban areas of Pakistan, as most of the domestic, industrial and public lighting sector lies here. Improved lifestyles and increased income of people has led to a greater demand in these urban areas. This is proved by the fact that about 60% of the total electricity is consumed by the Punjab region, the most developed part of Pakistan (Nepra 2014). Karachi is also one of the leading regions in terms of development and consumption, but rest of the Sindh province has a considerably lower electricity demand and consumption. Perwez et al. (2015) points out in their study that 164,532 number of villages were electrified in the period between 1983-2010, while industrial sector consumers growing at a rate of 2.58% annually, the resulting demand of electricity has risen to a mammoth amount. However, the supply side fails to comply, resulting in an ever increasing supply and demand gap.
3.6.1 Demand and Supply
Figure 3.21 shows the demand of electricity in the country. The data is divided into per day values of maximum demand, maximum demand diversified and average demand. The maximum diversified demand is the average of maximum demands in different periods of winter and summer time. The values of these demands are taken from the State of Industry Report 2014 by NEPRA. They can be calculated by registering the total time of blackouts and brownouts, and determining the amount of electricity that is needed in these times.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.21 Electricity demand per day, 2009-2014
The increasing trend of demand is due to factors including increasing population, improving lifestyles, urbanization and industrialization etc. A more detailed analysis of hourly demand in summer and winter time can show a more comprehensive perspective on the overall demand trend. Figure 3.22 illustrates hourly demands in summer and winter, as well as weekdays and weekends. The data is taken from State of Industry Report 2014.
According to NEPRA’s State of Industry Report, the peak demand for summer time is greater than the winter time because of extra power consumed by the air-conditioning units in both residential and commercial sectors. The summer time experiences greater demand at night times due to use of air-condition by the residential sector as people prefer sleeping in comfort in the hot summers. Less number of offices and other commercial buildings are centrally air-conditioned in Pakistan, which is why the mid-day demand is lesser. For the winters, the opposite is true. Demand increases at day time and is less at night, as majority of the heating systems are running on natural gas.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.22 Hourly demand in summer and winter time, 2013
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.23 Weekday vs weekend hourly demand in summer and winter time
Figure 3.23 cuts down the weekday and weekend demand trend in summers and winters separately. The summertime weekend demand is lower due to the obvious fact that most of the commercial activities are closed, and the air-conditioning draws lesser power. In winters, however, there is no obvious difference in weekday and weekend consumption because of absence of air-condition requirement.
3.6.2 Demand and Supply Deficit
The major problem faced by the government as well as the people of Pakistan is the deficit in the demand and supply of electricity. When there is a difference between this demand and supply, the country has to face brownouts, and even blackouts on some occasions. Pakistan has been facing this problem for over a decade and a half now. The GOP, as well as the private sector, are struggling to overcome this problem, but apparently with fruitless outcomes (NEPRA 2014). Figure 3.24 shows the actual generation capacity vs the peak demand per day.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.24 Generation capacity vs average demand per day (MW)
The generation capability is the maximum load a generator can take and it may differ from name plate capacity of the power plant. The reasons for this are (NEPRA 2014):
- Hydro capacity differs seasonably
- Not all power plants are fully functional
- For some power plants, the name plate capacity is higher than the actual operational capacity
- Underutilization of power plants, shown by the capacity factor in the previous sections
- Power losses, explained earlier, reduces the actual capacity
Due to these facts, the supply and demand is greatly unmatched. In 2014, the country faced a deficit of 5384 MW per day, which is about 23% of the peak hour demand. This means that on average, the country had to face 5.5 hours of black-out each day (23% of 24 hours is 5.5 hours).
Figure 3.25 below shows the deficit trend from 2010 to 2014. The country faced a major supply/demand deficit in the year 2012 due to lower generation capability (this is also backed by the fact that T&D losses were maximum in this period) (NEPRA 2014). Although, the gap is decreasing, but this is insufficient to curb the problem any time soon. Industries, agriculture sector and common lifestyle are greatly affected by lack of sufficient power.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.25 Electricity demand and supply deficit
3.6.3 Electricity Consumption
Electricity consumers in Pakistan are categorized as residential, commercial, industrial, agriculture, public lighting, and railway traction. The fact that Pakistan is a developing nation, the overall energy consumption is less than a developed country with the same population. Industries are sparse, and the structure of the commercial sector does not require a lot of energy. Even with this fact, the industries are suffering from power deficit, especially the smaller ones. Private business owners in the commercial sector are forced to cut down or close their setups. The agriculture output of the country is going down. The general population of Pakistan are fed-up of the power shortages, especially in summer time when the heat gets unbearable without an air-conditioner or a simple fan.
Figure 3.26 compares the energy generated with energy consumed (the difference is the total losses incurred in the system, which were discussed earlier).
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.26 Electricity generated vs electricity consumed (GWh), 2010-2014
It can be seen that there has not been any significant growth in the electricity generation, and hence the consumption being a function of generation, it also saw no growth. Compared to an annual population growth of 1.49% (Indexmundi 2015), it is evident that the supply/demand deficit is increasing. However, in the above graph it can be seen that the year 2014 saw an improvement in the situation due to opening of a few new power plants as described earlier in the report. But this improvement is nowhere near to solving the shortage of electricity. The gap between the generation and consumption is due to all the combined losses, described in the T&D losses section.
A more detailed analysis can be done by showing the energy consumption per capita, as this indicator provides a survey in economic terms. It calculates the electricity available per capita in a region. It will be useful to compare this value for Pakistan with its neighbor, India and also Turkey. Figure 3.27 illustrates this comparison (tellmaps.com 2016). The comparison shows an unacceptable situation for Pakistan if it wants to pave its way towards development. India, being of the same cultural and national background, is doing much better, while Turkey is the best performer among the three with 6.6 times more consumption per capita than Pakistan in 2013. Pakistan is ranked 117 out of 141 country- wise, while India and Turkey are on 107 and 70 respectively in terms of per capita consumption of electric power (tellmaps 2016).
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.27 Per capita energy consumption Pakistan vs India vs Turkey, 2010-2013
Consumption Sector-wise
This section will identify the energy each sector draws from the grid. This analysis is useful in identifying the importance of various consumer sectors and their progress over the years. Figure 3.28 shows the sector-wise consumption.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.28 Sector-wise electricity consumption, 1990-2014
As seen in figure 3.28 and 3.29, the domestic sector is the highest consumer of the available energy making up approximately 47% of the total electricity, followed by industrial sector with a 29% consumption of total electricity. The domestic consumption has increased over the years at a steady rate, while the industrial sector has seen a decrease between the years 2008-2010. The increase in domestic consumption is explained by the increased use of electrical appliances now available at cheaper prices after Chinese manufacturers took over the market. Another reason of this increase in the rural electrification projects initiated by the public DISCOs in the recent years, especially in the areas under GEPCO, LESCO, FESCO and IESCO. The industrial sector is suffering due to bad economic conditions and power shortages. This is the reason why there is no significant rise in the consumption by this sector (NEPRA 2014).
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.29 Sector-wise energy mix, 2014
Although the agriculture sector in Pakistan is of great importance, with bulk exports of cotton, wheat, rice and other products but this sector has seen no increase in consumption over the past two decades. Rauf et al. (2015) mentions in their report that power consumption by the agriculture sector has fallen by 7.1% in the recent years. This is explained by the lack of new investments made and continued use of traditional farming techniques.
Chapter 4 Electricity Consumption forecast with variation in Temperature using Multiple Regression
4.1 Introduction
According to Perwez et al. (2014) and Rauf et al. (2015), it is important to forecast the future energy and electricity needs so that an appropriate energy policy can be designed or upgraded. Frameworks of new projects can be decided according to the demand forecast. This can solve the issues of haphazard planning and energy shortages at any given time. In this study, monthly electricity forecast is performed through method of multiple regression. It is a statistical tool to analyze relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. There are a number of factors which determine the electricity consumption including population growth, urbanization, rural electrification, rising incomes, temperature and other socio-economic elements. The regression model uses these determinants and provides with an estimated value of the future demand. The seasonal variation index is used to divide the yearly electric consumption into monthly components for use in analysis.
General equation for multiple regression is given as:
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Where,
illustration not visible in this excerpt
4.2 Data and Methodology
The determinants used in this study are explained in the following text.
1) Gross Domestic Product
2) Industrial Production Index (IPI)
3) Temperature
4) Population
In this thesis, the main focus on the varying consumption is the temperature. Increase in rest of the dependent variables produces general increase in electricity consumption. The dependent variables include GDP, IPI, temperature and population while consumption is the independent variable. All this data was put into the multiple regression model in excel and the results were achieved. Three scenarios are considered which are; i) Best: In this situation, the best conditions are considered from the past few years. The GDP and IPI have the highest values, whereas the population growth and temperature are minimum; ii) Good: In this situation, average is taken from the past years for all the independent variable values and inserted in the regression model; iii) Worst: In this situation, the worst conditions are considered from the past years. The GDP and IPI are the lowest, whereas the population growth and temperature are maximum.
4.3 Results
The results obtained shows a positive correlation between electricity consumption and monthly temperature (relative data is provided in table D.3 in Appendix D). The equation used in the regression model is:
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Where,
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Tabular form of the data mentioned above is provided in tables D.1 and D.2 of Appendix D. The multiple R value for this model is 0.84, which means that the results are 84% accurate to the real value. Analysis is done for the years 2014-2020.
Figure 4.1 shows the relation between temperature and consumption for the first method for 2014. It can be seen in the figure that with increase in monthly average temperature, the consumption of electricity increases. This is analogous to the explanation in chapter 3, section 3.6.1, that increased consumption in summer season is due to use of airconditioners, which draw a significant amount of electric power.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 4.1 Dependence of electric consumption on temperature change, 2014
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Consumption value obtained for 2014 are based on actual values of population, GDP and IPI, therefore it is higher than the consumption calculated for 2015, for which the above inputs are estimations based on good, bad and worst scenarios. It can be concluded that change in temperature has the highest effect on the consumption, compared to GDP growth, population and IPI. Yearly predicted consumptions are summarized in table 4.1. The overall result is satisfactory as the actual consumption in 2014 was 82419 GWh, which is very close to our predicted value of 80403.1 GWh. The increased use of cooling appliances (fans and air-conditioners) both commercially and domestically increases the demand of electricity by about 20% in summer time compared to winter time. In fact during summer time, the country faces the worst power outages, going as high as 10-12 hours per day (NEPRA 2014).
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table 4.1 Summary of predicted electricity consumption values
Although the model provides satisfactory results, but there are a number of limitations involved. The values of population, GDP and IPI are estimated and can differ in the coming years, which may vary the given results. The results obtained are based on the current situation of the electricity sector, which means that if the conditions are improved by successful application of the latest energy policies, the consumption rate will change significantly with change in supply. The other limitation is the consideration of electricity consumption and not the actual demand in order to eradicate the short supply. Another major limitation of the model is that it does not consider sector-wise consumption values, which is an important factor for future energy planning. A number of previous studies have been conducted for forecasting of electricity demand. A previous study by Ali et al. (2013) performed a similar approach in forecasting monthly electricity consumption trends according to varying climatic changes. They used the seasonality index in order to slice the yearly electric consumption into monthly parts, and used the ARIMA method to deduce the results. They used the monthly temperature along with other socio-economic factors as inputs, similar to method in this report. Their result shows a similar trend of change in consumption with my thesis, indicating an increased consumption in summer time in the coming years. My method achieved a much closer value to the actual consumption of recent years, proving a good estimation of the input variables used.
Hussain et al. (2016) applied the Holt Winter and ARIMA models to forecast the consumption, and concluded that electricity consumption will continue to rise and further increase the supply-demand gap. According to them, the Holt Winter method provides comprehensive results compared to ARIMA. Table 4.2 compares the result of three studies with this one.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table 4.2 Comparison of forecast results with previous studies
Perwez and Sohail (2014) drafted a comprehensive study for forecasting the future of electricity production and demand. They divided the case into three scenarios in terms of electricity production, namely Business-as-usual (BAU), New coal (NC) and Green future (GF). They then calculated the consumption according to these scenarios.
Although the studies use different methods and criteria for forecasting, the results of all can be combined to an estimation and frameworks on future policies can be drafted accordingly. Some studies estimate the value of future consumption, keeping in mind the supply and demand deficit which prevails, while other studies deduce the actual demand where there is no shortage of electricity. The results of my model can be used to draft a monthly structure of available generation capacity, for example during the summer, the government could operate most of the plants at full capacity and increase the mining or imports of fossil fuels.
Chapter 5 Problems, Recommendations and Conclusion
The whole energy sector of Pakistan is in a perilous state. The supply of power is far below the demand, and as a result, Pakistan has to face shortages. The root of the problem is a combined economic, political, technical and financial one. The government has already identified the problem and the solutions, but apparently has failed to implement any reasonable policy actions. A number of international organizations have issued reports to help end this war of energy shortage, including the Asian Development Bank (AEDB 2012). A report issued by this committee in 2010 argued that if immediate action is taken, the country could get rid of the problem in a few years (ESTF 2010). The 2013 elections delayed the implementation of the strategy proposed by the ADB, and is still shelved (Mills 2012). According to many studies, including Mills (2012), Ullah (2013), Rauf et al. (2015), the current situation of the country may prolong this energy deficit up to a decade, or more. This time frame is too long, keeping in view the downfall in domestic, commercial and industrial activities.
5.1 Problems
In a number of texts, including newspapers and government reports like the State of Industry 2014 by NEPRA, it is estimated that Pakistan is facing a deficit of around 5000 MW per day, mainly due to lack of investment and halfhearted reforms and policy implementation. In the past decade, the electricity demand has risen by 80%, while the supply is constantly failing to fulfill (Khan 2011). The demand is likely to increase, as one third of the population still does not have access to the national grid. As further electrification will take place, the demand will only increase.
One of the problems is lack of domestic energy sources to generate electricity. The national reserves of oil and gas are diminishing, with an estimated exhaustion by 2025- 2030 (GOP 2013). These fossil fuels are the main source of electricity generation, which means that imports will eventually rise hence crippling the economy. It is estimated that energy imports will rise to 75% in 2025, compared to the current value of 25% (Javaid 2011). The government has long subsidized the fuel costs in order to help the general public. The government paid a sum of one trillion Pakistani rupees in subsidies (Pakistan Observer 2011). This obviously decreases the available budget in investing in new energy projects.
Both the public and private sectors are being badly inflicted by the energy deficits. The residential sector is facing long hours of load shedding, with up to 18-20 hours per day in some areas of Pakistan. The general public is fed up of this situation, and a number of rallies and riots have resulted in the past years due to this. Rauf et al. (2015) studies the effects of energy shortages and conclude that the industrial sector is no exception and no growth has been seen during the past decade. The textile industry, which is the backbone of the country’s export, is greatly effected in terms of production and profits. The agriculture sector is suffering the same fate. The transport system is suffering from lack of availability of fuel. More than 1.6 million vehicles were running on compressed natural gas (CNG), with over 17000 CNG stations in place all over the country (Muslim 2016). Sadly, the CNG infrastructure has been completely shut down due to lack of natural gas supply and all the vehicle owners are forced to use fuel gasoline. This has greatly affected the common population. Yet again, this has led to a further increase in oil imports. The railway system has been forced to cut down the number of routes, and on some occasions, asked to completely shut down transport due to fuel shortages. As far as employment is concerned, an estimated 4.1 million jobs have been lost since 2008. This number amounts to 7.5% of the total workforce (Dawn News 2011). Due to all these factors, private investors are hesitant to put their assets on risk, hence creating a chain reaction of problems.
5.2 Reasons for Problematic Situation of Electricity sector
Khan (2011), Mills (2012) and Kessides (2013) identified the major reasons of the crisis which will be discussed and interpreted in the following text (the information is combined from all these studies).
- Circular debt
- Absence of adequate investments x Reform and Governance issues x Payment issues
- Security issues
- Tension between Provincial Governments
- Absence of local Industries and Engineering Expertise Details of these factors are provided in Appendix G.
5.3 Recommended Solutions and Reforms
The problems are long standing and the previous governments failed to solve them. Recently, when the current government of Pakistan came in to power in 2013, it was aware of span of energy problems, but apparently has yet again failed to tackle it completely till now. In this thesis, the recommended solutions are divided into short term, medium term and long term and are discussed below. In view of previous studies, Khan (2011), Mills (2012) and Rauf et al. (2015) made similar suggestions. The following text is based on the studies made by these authors.
Short term
A regular power plant based on thermal generation takes three to five years to establish, where as an autoproducer takes as less as six to eight months. This is like a small portable plant which can be setup at any location or time. Although, the overall costs are higher than usual, but this technique helps balance the supply and demand deficit in a short time. The government can rent these autoproducers to fill the gap between demand and supply of electricity till a permanent solution can be applied. In 2009, the cabinet approved opening of fourteen RPPs, but according to the Asian Development Bank analysis, only eight were recommended to be setup. Finally, 1500 MW of capacity was installed in form of RPPs, but again due to lack of available capital, the administration could not handle this system and it has not proved to be a problem solver (Mills 2012).
Another major concerns are both the power and financial losses within the system. Undoubtedly, ending the circular dent is a tough job, but once achieved, it can solve the energy crisis. This will mean that more funds will be available for power generation, and the power plants would be able to operate at full capacity. As discussed earlier, subsidizing fuel costs is a heavy burden on the economy. These low domestic prices also abolishes the interest to exploit new resources, or invite foreign and local investments.
The revamping of the transmission and distribution system may also result as a problem solver. As discussed before, the power losses are as high as 20%, therefore rehabilitating the power system needs more attention. The GENCOs are performing below standard, and a huge energy loss is due to their inefficient running. New equipment and techniques should be applied by the authorities as this step does not seem to be a very complicated one. Besides this, the local population should be made aware of the importance of bill payment. Strict laws should be introduced against power theft and on-time bill payments. The higher officials should be urged to abide by the laws too (Rauf et al. 2015).
Medium Term
The medium solution mainly revolves around the need to establish a better energy policy. The government should aim for a well-drafted, well-improvised and a targeted policy for comprehensive results. Till now, the energy policy has completely failed to fulfill the purposes, with time to time amendments made with no success factor. The new energy policy should especially focus on energy efficiency, cost effectiveness, lucrative incentives to promote investments and better management practices. This could, in addition, promote international investments to a great deal (Mills 2012), (Khan 2011) and (Rauf et al. 2015).
Long Term
Pakistan’s energy mix is too much dependent on the fossil fuel sources, of which the domestic resources are scarce. This mix should be diversified and spread evenly between all the available resources, such as hydro, nuclear, coal and renewables. The exhaustion of local fossil fuel resources and heavy reliance on oil imports does not point to the betterment of the energy situation. Although this is a colossal task, but once achieved, it may solve the crisis once and for all.
When gas reserves were discovered in 1950’s, it was believed that they could last for a very long time. The whole energy structure was carved on the basis of gas as the primary fuel of the country, but unfortunately the truth has been revealed and gas reserves could finish by 2025 (Mills 2012). Although latest evidence shows further untapped gas reserves, it is difficult to exploit them due to security reasons discussed earlier in this report. For now, the main prospects in terms of gas are the import from the neighboring country Iran. The government has initiated the project and the completion is estimated to be in 2017 (Pakistan Today 2015).
Pakistan imports around 80% of its oil products (ADB 2009). Historically, this was a viable solution due to friendly cooperation with the Gulf States, but because of reasons like increasing power demand and lack of import budget, this no longer is a solution to fulfill power needs. The government should restructure a system into a non-oil dependent one. It should stop issuing new licenses to companies that are willing to produce power using oil or gas (Mills 2012).
Pakistan has not signed the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty, and due to constant terrorist threat, the nuclear generation program of Pakistan faces international sanctions. The government should express to the international organizations that it is more interested in generating power from nuclear resources other than for war purposes. China, however, is supportive of this endeavor and supplies uranium to the existing nuclear stations in Pakistan. Currently, new projects are under construction including CHASHMA III and KANUPP II. The government should invest more and appeal to other countries to help develop this sector. Not many countries of the world are lucky enough to possess this technology, and Pakistan should therefore exploit this fact to the fullest (Mills 2012).
According to the geography of Pakistan, hydroelectricity should be the choice of fuel. With a potential of around 60,000 MW of which only 7117 MW is exploited, this could end the problem and the country could even export the excess power, with added benefits of almost costless production. Federal tensions, security issues and lack of huge capital are the reasons for the under development of this sector. The country should once again promote international interest in investing in hydro plants. The new 4,500 MW Diamer Bhasha dam could really release the pressure on the energy system. It is backed by a number of financers, the leading one being the ADB (Mills 2012). The government should continue to pay full attention to this project and initiate it as soon as possible (Mills 2012).
It is estimated the Pakistan can produce 100,000 MW for three hundred years using its coal reserves. But shockingly, there is only one coal power plant in operation. The reason for such low utilization is the fossil fuel dominant energy structure. After the realization of ending gas reserves and infeasibility of oil imports, the government is paying attention to harvesting the coal reserves. Although the Thar coal mine, the largest in Pakistan, provides a low quality coal, it may be the leading factor resolve energy shortages. A number of new projects are pipelined aimed for electricity generation but again they are facing obstacles due to financing, environmental laws and failed governance (Mills 2012).
Pakistan is blessed with plentiful sunshine and wind. The estimated statistics of potential are (Rauf et al. 2015):
- Wind: 50,000 MW (theoretical)
- Solar: 20,000 MW (theoretical)
- Waste and biogas: 3000 MW
Currently, there is almost no progress in this field, despite the existence of the Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB). Use of renewable energy can be seen in private homes and offices, but recently a number of projects are pipelined for development, including the huge Quaid-e-Azam solar park (Mills 2012).
Apart from these measures, Pakistan needs to plan out a proper structure to secure the long term energy prospects. Key projects like TAPI (pipeline running from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) and IP (Iran pipeline) show be seriously perused by the government through bilateral talks and agreements with other governments (Mahmood et al. 2014). Swift development of the deep sea Gwadar Port should be launched to improve trade. The government should comply with its key partners for energy trading, including China, USA, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and India in order to develop an influx of resources and improve the overall economic standing of the country.
In conclusion, the renewable approach seems fruitful, but for developing countries like Pakistan, it is economically difficult to produce electricity through such expensive means. A single field of wind turbines may cost millions of dollars for a small amount of installed capacity. After completing the research needed for this thesis, according to my own speculation, coal seems to be the best solution for solving the electricity shortages. New processing technologies can even utilize the low coal quality, which is found in Pakistan, to produce electricity with low pollution contents. Future studies should focus on modelling and integrating coal resources in the electricity mix of Pakistan, and should provide practical models to the government and other energy agencies so that work in this field can be started immediately.
References
1. Aamir. M, (2016). Balochistan is the biggest victim of load shedding in Pakistan. [online] The Nation. Available at: http://nation.com.pk/blogs/06-Feb- 2015/balochistan-is-the-biggest-victim-of-load-shedding-in-pakistan [Accessed 22 Jan. 2016].
2. ADB, (2009). Integrated Energy Sector Report and Plan.
3. Ali, M., Iqbal, M.J. and Sharif, M., (2013). Relationship between extreme temperature and electricity demand in Pakistan. International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering, 4 (1), pp.1-7.
4. A.M., Awan, Qureshi, M.I., Rasli, U., Ma, J., Ali, G., Alam, A., Sajjad, F. and Zaman, K., (2015). Environment and air pollution: health services bequeath to grotesque menace. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 22 (5), pp.3467-3476.
5. Bahriatown.com, (2004). Home - Bahria Town - Your Lifestyle Destination. [online] Available at: http://www.bahriatown.com/ [Accessed 24 Jan. 2016].
6. Bernhard Meyhoefer, (2008). Renewable Energy Application in Pakistan; Potential and Barriers. GIZ-renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (REEE) Programme.
7. Butt, M., Waqas, A. and Mahmood, R. (2010). The Combined Effect of Vegetation and Soil Erosion in the Water Resource Management. Water Resour Manage, 24(13), pp.3701-3714.
8. Dawn News. (2011). Ex-Minister to Defend RPP Contracts in SC.
9. Eea.europa.eu, (2015). Efficiency of conventional thermal electricity generation — European Environment Agency. [online] Available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/efficiency-of-conventional- thermal-electricity-generation-1/assessment [Accessed 30 Dec. 2015].
10. EEP - Electrical Engineering Portal. (2013). Total Losses in Power Distribution and Transmission Lines (1) | EEP. [online] Available at: http://electrical- engineering-portal.com/total-losses-in-power-distribution-and-transmission- lines-1 [Accessed 29 Mar. 2016].
11. Energy Sector Task Force (ESTF). (2010). Integrated Energy Sector Recovery Report and Plan (Asian Development Bank [ADB ].
12. Haglerbailly.com.pk, (2003-2014). Hagler Bailly Pakistan. [online] Available at: http://www.haglerbailly.com.pk/index.htm [Accessed 16 Dec. 2015].
13. Hussain, A., Rahman, M. and Memon, J.A., (2016). Forecasting electricity consumption in Pakistan: the way forward. Energy Policy, 90, pp.73-80.
14. ICCI, (2011). An Overview of Electricity Sector In Pakistan. [online] Available at: http://icci.com.pk/data/downloads/63/1293619048_1.pdf [Accessed 16 Dec. 2015].
15. Indexmundi.com, (2015). Pakistan Demographics Profile 2014. [online] Available at: http://www.indexmundi.com/pakistan/demographics_profile.html [Accessed 28 Jan. 2016]
16. IPRI, (2014). [online] Available at: http://www.ipripak.org/wp- content/uploads/2014/01/secp.pdf [Accessed 1 Feb. 2016].
17. Iqbal, N., Nawaz, S. and Anwar, S., (2013). Electricity Demand in Pakistan: A Nonlinear Estimation. Mimeo Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
18. Javaid. Z. (2011) Energy Crisis Affecting Social, Economic Uplift Daily Times.
19. Karachi Electric Supply Company, (2012). Lighting the way forward. [online] Available at: http://www.ke.com.pk/pdf/Sustainability-Report.pdf [Accessed 8 Dec. 2015]
20. Kessides, I.N., (2013). Chaos in power: Pakistan's electricity crisis. Energy Policy, 55, pp.271-285.
21. Khan, M, (2011). Energy Subsidies Cripple Pakistan Economy, Says Study Financial Times Blog.
22. Mahmood, A., Javaid, N., Zafar, A., Riaz, R.A., Ahmed, S. and Razzaq, S., (2014). Pakistan's overall energy potential assessment, comparison of LNG, TAPI and IPI gas projects. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 31, pp.182-193.
23. Malik, A. (2010). Effectiveness of Regulatory Structure in the Power Sector of Pakistan. [online] Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. Available at: http://www.pide.org.pk/pideweb/pdf/Seminar/Seminar%2066.pdf [Accessed 17 Dec. 2015].
24. Mills, E., (2012). Pakistan's Energy Crisis. US Institute of Peace.
25. Muslim, A. (2016). Pakistan now has highest number of CNG-run vehicles. [online] Pakistan Defence. Available at: http://defence.pk/threads/pakistan-now- has-highest-number-of-cng-run-vehicles.7195/ [Accessed 29 Jan. 2016].
26. Mustafa, G. (2012). Prospects of Nuclear Energy in Pakistan. [online] International Atomic Energy Agency. Available at: https://www.iaea.org/INPRO/5th_Dialogue_Forum/Tuesday,_28.08.2012/1110- 1230(National_Perspective)/6._Ghulam_Mustafa_Pakistan_0828.pdf [Accessed 23 Dec. 2015].
27. Nawaz, S., Iqbal, N. and Anwar, S., (2014). Modelling electricity demand using the STAR (Smooth Transition Auto-Regressive) model in Pakistan. Energy, 78, pp.535-542.
28. Nayyar, Z.A., Zaigham, N.A. and Qadeer, A., (2014). Assessment of present conventional and non-conventional energy scenario of Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 31, pp.543-553.
29. NEPRA, (2003). Generation License (CHASNUPP 1). [online] Available at: http://www.nepra.org.pk/Licences/Generation/NPP/LAG- 19%20Generation%20Licen%20Chashma%20Nuclear%20Power%20Plant- dated%2009-09-2003.PDF [Accessed 23 Dec. 2015].
30. Nepra.org.pk, (1998). NEPRA [online] Available at: http://www.nepra.org.pk/power_policies.htm [Accessed 17 Dec. 2015].
31. Opal-rt.com, (2016). Real Time Simulation of a Power Plant Auxiliary System with eMEGAsim. [online] Available at: http://www.opal-rt.com/video/real-time- simulation-power-plant-auxiliary-system-emegasim [Accessed 9 Jan. 2016].
32. Pakistan Oberserver. (2011). Inefficiency Causes Loss of One Trillion Rupees.
33. Perwez, U. and Sohail, A., (2014). Forecasting of Pakistan's net electricity energy consumption on the basis of energy pathway scenarios. Energy Procedia, 61, pp.2403-2411.
34. Perwez, U., Sohail, A., Hassan, S.F. and Zia, U., (2015). The Long-term Forecast of Pakistan's Electricity Supply and Demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning. Energy, 93, pp.2423-2435.
35. Power Sector Situation in Pakistan. (2005). [online] Available at: https://www.solarwirtschaft.de/fileadmin/media/pdf/eu-pakistan/Pakistan-GTZ- power-sector-overview.pdf [Accessed 1 Feb. 2016].
36. Rauf, O., Wang, S., Yuan, P. and Tan, J., (2015). An Overview of Energy Status and Development in Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 48, pp.892-931.
37. Rouse, G. and Kelly, J. (2011). [online] Available at: http://www.galvinpower.org/sites/default/files/Electricity_Reliability_031611.pd f [Accessed 24 Jan. 2016].
38. S. Padgett, (1992). The Single European Energy Market: The Politics of Realization, JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 30(1), pp. 53-76
39. Satti, S.L., Hassan, M.S., Mahmood, H. and Shahbaz, M., (2014). Coal consumption: An Alternate Energy Resource to Fuel Economic Growth in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 36, pp.282-287.
40. Shaikh, F., Ji, Q. and Fan, Y., (2015). The Diagnosis of an Electricity Crisis and Alternative Energy Development in Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, pp.1172-1185.
41. Siddiqui, E. (2015). Lakhra coal for power generation. [online] Dawn.com. Available at: http://www.dawn.com/news/1172656 [Accessed 24 Dec. 2015].
42. Staff, I. (2005). What is GDP and why is it so important? | Investopedia. [online] Investopedia. Available at: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/199.asp [Accessed 29 Mar. 2016].
43. Tang, C.F. and Shahbaz, M., (2013). Sectoral Analysis of the Causal Relationship between Electricity Consumption and Real Output in Pakistan. Energy Policy, 60, pp.885-891.
44. The Express Tribune, (2012). Alarm bells ringing: Sui gas reserves to end in 10 years - The Express Tribune
45. The Express Tribune, (2015). Mangla power project to increase generation - The Express Tribune. [online] Available at: http://tribune.com.pk/story/934253/mangla-power-project-to-increase- generation/ [Accessed 22 Dec. 2015].
46. The Express Tribune, (2015). Pakistan has 100,000MW production potential - The Express Tribune. [online] Available at: http://tribune.com.pk/story/996382/hydroelectric-power-pakistan-has- 100000mw-production-potential/ [Accessed 27 Dec. 2015].
47. The Express Tribune, (2016). Iran can export 3,000MW electricity to Pakistan - The Express Tribune. [online] Available at: http://tribune.com.pk/story/1020529/senate-question-hour-iran-can-export- 3000mw-electricity-to-pakistan/ [Accessed 28 Jan. 2016].
48. Today, P. (2015). Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline to be completed by Dec 2017: Abbasi. [online] Pakistantoday.com.pk. Available at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2015/09/23/business/iran-pakistan-gas- pipeline-to-be-completed-by-dec-2017-abbasi/ [Accessed 30 Jan. 2016].
49. Ullah, K., (2013). Electricity Infrastructure in Pakistan: an Overview. International Journal of Energy, Information and Communications, 4 (3), pp.11-26.
50. Water Technology, (2015). Tarbela Dam Project, Haripur District. [online] Available at: http://www.water-technology.net/projects/tarbela-dam-project/ [Accessed 22 Dec. 2015].
51. Wikipedia, (2015). List of power stations in Pakistan. [online] Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Pakistan [Accessed 22 Dec. 2015].
52. World Bank, (2013). Expanding the Power of Tarbela Dam. [online] Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/02/06/expanding-the-power-of- tarbela-dam [Accessed 22 Dec. 2015].
53. www.nepra.org.pk, (1994). Policy Framework and Package of Incentives for Private Sector Power Generation Projects in Pakistan. [online] Available at: http://www.nepra.org.pk/Policies/Power%20Policy%201994.pdf [Accessed 17 Dec. 2015].
54. Yazdanie, M. (2010). Renewable Energy in Pakistan: Policy Strengths, Challenges & the Path Forward.
55. Zakaria, M. and Noureen, R., (2016). Benchmarking and Regulation of Power Distribution Companies in Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 58, pp.1095-1099.
56. Zaman, K., Khan, M.M., Ahmad, M. and Rustam, R., (2012). Determinants of Electricity Consumption Function in Pakistan: Old wine in a new bottle. Energy Policy, 50, pp.623-634.
Appendices
All the data used for the analysis in this report is provided in the appendices in tabular form. Appendix A provides energy budget statistics. Appendix B provides detailed information about the major power plants in Pakistan. Appendix C provides all the electricity generation data used in Chapter 3 of the study. Appendix D contains data and statistics used in the multiple regression model.
Appendix A
Table A.1 Energy budget of 2013 (Energy Information Administration 2015)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Appendix B
Details of some major power plants in Pakistan (Power System Statistics 2014)
Thermal Power Plants (Gas, FO, HSD and Coal)
In Pakistan, there are a total of 53 thermal power plants scattered around the country. These power plants utilize fuels including coal, furnace oil (FO), high speed diesel (HSD) and natural gas. The total thermal installed capacity as of 2014 is 17209 MW The following table shows the number of thermal power plants owned by public and private sectors:
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table B.1 Thermal plants owned by public and private sectors
The largest plants under PEPCO system are the Jamshoro Power Station, Guddu Thermal Station and Thermal Power Station Muzaffargarh with capacities of 850 MW, 1655 MW and 1350 MW respectively. For all three plants, the main primary fuel type is natural gas. In the IPP domain, the most significant ones are KAPCO and HUBCO power plants with capacities of 1638 MW and 1292 MW respectively. For the KAPCO station, the primary fuel is natural gas while for the HUBCO station it is furnace oil. In KESC area, the main stations are the Bin Qasim Power Plant I & II with capacities of 1260 MW and 560 MW respectively and the primary fuel is natural gas. Keeping in view the above mentioned information, it is clear that natural gas is the most significant primary energy resource for thermal generation, which might put this sector into jeopardy owning to the fact that the main gas reserves of the country may finish in 10-15 years (The Express Tribune, 2012).
Hydro-electricity Power Plants
The geological nature of Pakistan beneficially allows for hydel generation, with five main rivers and a number of tributaries. The whole hydel setup is controlled and operated by WAPDA, with only a few projects owned by IPP’s. There are 19 WAPDA owned (excluding ones with <1 MW capacity) and 4 privately owned dams. The total installed capacity of hydel generation is 7117 MW, with WAPDA owing to 98% of the total share. The three main hydel generation plants are:
1. Tarbela Dam
It is the world’s largest fill-type dam, and second largest in respect of reservoir capacity which is 14.3 km³ (Water Technology, 2015). It was constructed in 1976 and is located on river Indus close to Tarbela village. Its purpose includes irrigation, flood control and power generation. The total installed capacity is 3478 MW, and a venture known as ‘Tarbela Fourth Extension Project’ is underway to increase another 1410 MW of capacity (World Bank, 2013).
2. Mangla Dam
It is the 7th largest dam in the world with a capacity of 9.12 km³ (Butt, Waqas and Mahmood, 2010). It is located on the river Jhelum near the town of Mangla. The project was completed in 1967 with the help of British and USA based companies. This is a multi- purpose dam including irrigation and electricity generation. It has a generation capacity of 1000 MW and further addition of 310 MW capacity is planned (The Express Tribune, 2015).
3. Ghazi Barotha Dam
This is the most recent major hydel project which was commenced in 2003. It is situated on the river Indus near Attock district in Punjab. It has an installed capacity of 1450 MW.
According to many surveys, it is evident that there is great hydro-electricity generation potential in Pakistan and is under-utilized due to low government efforts and less incentives for private investors. The GOP does realize this potential and has initiated a number of projects for which feasibility reports are being made or has already been made. About 96 dams are already under construction, of which mostly are small projects (Wikipedia, 2015).
Nuclear Power Plants
Pakistan is the first Muslim country to own and operate nuclear power plants. There are currently three licensed power plants which are under the PAEC. The first nuclear plant was established in Karachi (KANUPP) in 1972 under the president-ship of Mr. Ayub Khan. Currently, a capacity of 787 MW serves the generation of electricity through nuclear reaction. This capacity is divided between the following three plants:
1. Chashma Nuclear Power Complex (CHASNUPP-I)
It is located in Chashma, Punjab and was constructed in May 2000. It is a pressurized water reactor with a generation capacity of 325 MW and an expected life of 40 years. It uses enriched uranium which is imported from China (NEPRA, 2003). It has a plant factor of 0.85-0.90 and an auxiliary consumption of 8% of rated capacity (NEPRA, 2003). It is connected to the 220 kV grid and provides electricity to NTDC.
2. Chashma Nuclear Power Complex (CHASNUPP II) Extension
The extension was constructed in 2011 with the help of China and was inaugurated by former president Mr. Yousaf Raza. It is pressurized light water nuclear power plant with a capacity of 325 MW and an expected life of 40 years. The primary fuel is slightly enriched uranium and is supplied by China. The power factor is given as 0.85. This plant also provides electricity to NTDC for transmission.
3. Karachi Nuclear Power Complex (KANUPP)
This was the first nuclear power plant constructed in Pakistan in 1972. It is located in Karachi, Sindh and provides power to the KESC transmission and distribution system. It is a pressurized heavy water reactor with a capacity of 137 MW. The primary fuel is natural uranium which is harvested locally.
To curb the energy supply-demand gap, the government has projected a nuclear installed capacity of 4400 MW by the year 2022 and 8800 MW by 2030 (Mustafa, 2012). This is the ‘Medium Term Development Framework’ developed in 2005. Extensions of the CHASNUPP and KANUPP are under construction and are expected to play a vital role in filling the energy deficits.
Coal Power Plants
Besides the massive coal reserves discovered in Pakistan, there is only one thermal power plant presently operating. It has a capacity of 150 MW (3x50 MW) but operates at a de- rated capacity of just 20 MW as only one of the units is functional, that even partially. Owing to this inefficient operation, the government has put this plant into the privatization list (Siddiqui, 2015).
11 new coal projects are under construction, mostly initiated by IPP’s. The main region of interest is the Thar Coal Mine. The largest project is the Gadani Energy Park, with a capacity of 6600 MW which China has provided (Wikipedia, 2015). Other projects are initiated by main stream companies like HUBCO, KESC and a number of China based companies.
Wind and Solar Power Plants
Development of wind and solar energy is at an infant stage in Pakistan. New laws have been passed to bring in investments in this sector. The first wind power plant is the Jhimpir Wind Power Plant, built by the Turkish company Zorlu Enerji, and has a generating capacity of 50 MW. Other projects include Jhimpir Wind FFCEL with a capacity of 50 MW, Three Gorges Wind Farm with a capacity of 50 MW and Foundation Wind Energy with a capacity of 100 MW. There are currently more than 20 projects in the pipeline, mostly assisted with companies from China and U.S, and generally have a capacity of 50- 100 MW (Wikipedia, 2015).
Solar generation is comparatively less developed than wind. Although the Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park has a generating capacity of 1000 MW, but out of this only 100 MW is currently operational. The project was developed by Tebian Electric Apparatus Co. Ltd (China) and funded by Bank of Punjab. Once fully operational, it will be one of the biggest in the world. The expected year of completion is 2016. Regarding further development in solar energy harvesting, there are more than 10 projects in the pipeline with capacities ranging from 10-150 MW and for which the Letter of Interest has been issued by the GOP.
Appendix C
Table C.1 Installed capacity of power plants, 1980-2014 (NEPRA 2014)
illustration not visible in this excerpt Table C.2 Installed capacity of public and private thermal power plants, 1990-2014 (NEPRA 2014)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table C.3 Installed capacity of public and private hydro power plants, 1999-2014 (NEPRA 2014)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table C.4 Electricity generation, 1980-2014 (NEPRA 2014)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table C.5 Capacity factor of hydro, thermal and nuclear, 1980-2014 (NEPRA 2014)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table C.6 Generation and installed capacity of power plants, 2010-2014 (NEPRA 2014)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table C.7 Capacity factor of power plants, 2010-2014 (NEPRA 2014)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table C.8 Cost of generation, 2010-2014 (NEPRA 2014)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table C.9 Technical specification of thermal plants
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Appendix D
Table D.1 Industrial production index of Pakistan (GOP 2014)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table D.2 Regression model data (temperature, IPI, GDP, population, consumption)
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Table D.3 Summary output of regression model result
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Appendix E
Performance of the Distribution Companies in terms of SAIFI and SAIDI values
A continuous supply of electricity to the end consumers is the main aspect of performance indicator for any distribution company (NEPRA 2014). The distribution system in Pakistan is monitored by a number of indicators, but the two important ones will be discussed in this thesis. They are:
illustration not visible in this excerpt
The SAFI and SAIDI indices are basically reliability indicators and uses the data of supply interruptions to customers to calculate the value. The lower the value, the better the performance of distribution. In North America, the SAIFI and SAIDI indices are 1.5 interruptions per customer and 4 minutes, respectively (Rouse and Kelly 2011). According to NEPRA’s Performance Standard Rules 2005, SAIFI and SAIDI should not exceed the limit of 13 interruptions per customer and 14 minutes, respectively (NEPRA 2014).
According to figure 3.18, it is evident that only one of the DISCOs, i.e. IESCO, is working under the maximum limit of the SAIFI value according to NEPRA standards. The statistics of HESCO and SPECO are not shown due to unavailability of sufficient data. PESCO, MEPCO and QESCO comparatively have poorer performance compared to the others. The overall outcome shows an unsatisfactory performance of these distribution companies, and nothing has been done over the years to bring the SAIFI index to a reasonable value.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.18 SAIFI performances of distribution companies, 2010-2014
The SAIDI values of distribution companies are shown in figure 3.19. They are way above the set value of 14 minutes. The worse performing ones are PESCO, QESCO and HESCO, while IESCO, LESCO and KESC are comparatively performing much better than the formers. The basic point to be noted here is that the companies based on major areas of Pakistan (i.e. Punjab region and Karachi which includes IESCO, LESCO, FESCO and KESC) are in a better state because of more resource input. The rest of the regions of Pakistan, in generally, are ignored in terms of infrastructural development and therefore the electricity distribution also suffers.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.19 SAIDI performance of distribution companies, 2010-2014
The SAIFI and SAIDI performance indicators highlight the bad performance of the whole power infrastructure of Pakistan. According to Zakariya and Noureen (2016), the distribution system is one of the most important player in the power supply, and if this sector is performing poorly, the whole system can be under jeopardy. The high number of interruption and their duration points a lack of proper management, new investments and technical expertise faced by the companies. There hasn’t been any bonus budgeting available to improve the distribution system, and the result is overall energy losses of more than 20%, as will be shown in the following section. The GOP and NEPRA identify this problem, and initiatives are being taken in order to privatize the distribution sector in order to achieve better performance and efficiency. Other than the statement made by the government, there is no further information available about this privatization action.
Not many studies are done regarding the performance of the distribution companies. Zakaria and Noureen (2016) performed cost efficiency analysis of distribution companies using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) technique. They concluded that high cost of electricity are a result of inefficiencies in the distribution network. They performed the study for 8 DISCOs and their result shows that QESCO, FESCO and PESCO are the most under-performing ones, while LESCO and IESCO shows satisfactory functioning (with 79.3% and 76.5% efficiency rates respectively). These results are similar to the analysis done with SAIFI and SAIDI values in this report, showing that these indicators can be further worked with for a deeper analysis of the performance of the distribution network.
Appendix F
Distribution company-wise losses
This section will illustrate and compare the distribution losses company-wise. Figure 3.23 shows the percentages of losses incurred within the distribution companies of Pakistan.
illustration not visible in this excerpt
Figure 3.23 Distribution company-wise losses (in order of regional situation), 2014
PESCO, TESCO, SEPCO and HESCO can be seen as the worst performers in terms of energy losses. Energy lost by distribution in their systems is 30% and above. IESCO’s, GEPCO’s, LESCO’s and FESCO’s performance in minimizing the distribution losses is in par with the systems of the first world countries. These companies are home to industrial areas, and therefore the government gives more attention. Surprisingly, KESC being under the private sector, has not been able to reduce the losses.
Appendix G
Reasons for Problematic Situation of Electricity Sector
1. Circular debt
This can said to be one of the major reasons for the problems. To keep the energy cost low, the government subsidized the fuel prices but is unable to pay back the energy companies. As a result, these companies are in maximum debt to the fuel suppliers. This has resulted in a curtailed, and even a halted, fuel supply- further resulting in lesser power generation.
2. Absence of adequate investments
Although there are a large number of projects that are proposed, including hydro, thermal and renewables- but insufficient funding has hampered their initiation. The existing infrastructure is in great need of repairs, refurbishment and overhauling as seen in chapter 3. Many power plants are in need of new equipment, the transmission and distribution system needs upgrades and repairs, but all this is halted due to lack of funds.
3. Reform and Governance issues
The energy policy of Pakistan is only partially implemented due to poor management. Even though, a number of bodies and committees are established, but none of them seem to bring any positive change. Corruption and lack of knowledge has led to confusion in the sector. Apart from the privatization attempt in 1990’s, there has been no major upgrade to the whole infrastructure. The complete privatization of the system has not been achieved as planned, and only thermal sector is under private control, that also partly. Rest of the system is suffering under the public sector, lacking integration and solidarity. The policies are unattractive to private investors due to presence risk and possible failure.
4. Payment issues
The electricity sector of the country faces a major issue of non-payments. Power theft is common amongst the general public. People attach hooks to main power lines and draw electricity without a metered connection. A large number of high officials are subjected to free electricity, and based on their lavish lifestyles, the sector has to face major payment deficits. A number of companies and industries are unable to make huge electric bill payments as most of them are facing revenue losses. In 2010, PEPCO reported an amount of $1 billion in unpaid bills (NEPRA 2011).
5. Security issues
Pakistan has been a warzone for more than a decade now. Terrorism and militant operations have affected all the sectors, including the energy sector. Unfortunately, the country’s major energy resources are found in threatening areas. Most of the gas reserves are found in the province of Baluchistan, where there is a strong establishment of militant groups. The hydro and oil resources are found in the province of KPK, where the law and order situation is thin due to presence of Taliban group. These facts naturally deter any investor or agency trying to setup a harvesting site.
Many terrorist activities took place in the past, including bombing the pipeline or sabotaging power plant sites. Apart from this, there has been kidnapping and killing of foreign workers operating in the energy industry. The Army is only able to take action after an event has taken place. Law and order situation in Pakistan is alarming, repelling the interests of investors both international and local (Mills 2012).
6. Tension between Provincial Governments
There is a lack of coordination between the central and provincial ruling parties. For example, the KPK government complains about injustice in terms of asset and service allocations, resulting in their non-cooperation. The central government is therefore not able to easily initiate a project in the KPK region. Even the local population opposes the federal plans of setting up hydro plants, showing concerns of silting up of local water resources. The government is unable to provide with adequate compensation to these people (Mills 2012).
The government is also unable to convince the provincial government of Baluchistan and Sindh to harvest the coal and other mineral resources, due to lack of compensation to the general public. It is a general thinking of the minority population, that the central government is just exploiting their resources in order to further develop the ‘already developed’ areas of Pakistan, mainly the province of Punjab.
7. Absence of local Industries and Engineering Expertise
There are no large industries and factories, which can produce the components of an energy system, including extraction plants, refineries, power plants, transmission equipment etc. All of this equipment is imported, making it more expensive for investors. This lowers the interest of companies to make investments in large projects.
There is no research and development foundation, where engineers and scientists could work together to improve the energy system in a technical sense. There are no major laboratories or research centers. Although the education system is quite comprehensive, but there are no specific fields which teach students about the energy systems, in particular the Pakistani case. This leads to unawareness of the public about the problems and crisis, and their solutions (Mills 2012).
- Quote paper
- Jasim Humaiyun (Author), 2016, Energy and Electricity in Pakistan. Evaluation of infrastructure and consumption forecast, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/323234
Similar texts
Publish now - it's free
Comments