The Indian energy sector. A complete analysis with respect to the natural gas cross country pipeline TAPI

Master's Thesis , 2016 , 86 Pages , Grade: 8.5

Energy Sciences

This paper examines the Indian energy sector with special focus on the TAPI pipeline. The distance from major fossil fuel-rich countries to Indian borders are not more than 1000 to 2000 km either by sea or land route. The best possible mode for importing natural gas is the trans-national pipelines from Turkmenistan, Myanmar or Iran. Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India Pipeline - the “TAPI Pipeline” is a 1735 km long land pipeline travelling through these countries.

This pipeline will have an annual discharge capacity of 33BCM and will play a crucial role for domestic demand and supply. The research objective of this thesis is to analyze different actors in risk, their role in the risks and their possible long term impacts. These risks are categorized as security, price, geopolitics, environment, legal, economical, production and demand-supply. The study develops some scenarios on the basis of changing circumstances, and examines some pertinent issues regarding the pipeline’s technical feasibility.

Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)

• 1. Introduction
  • 1.1 Natural gas Utilization
  • 1.2 TAPI Pipeline Facts
  • 1.3 Natural Gas Production Scenario in participant countries
• 2. Literature Review
  • 2.1 Natural Gas as a secondary fuel for India
  • 2.2 Natural Gas Scenario for India
    • 2.2.1 Conventional Natural Gas:
    • 2.2.2 Unconventional Natural Gas
      • 2.2.2.1 Coal Bed Methane
      • 2.2.2.2 Shale Gas
  • 2.3 Natural Gas Infrastructure of India
    • 2.3.1 Pipelines
    • 2.3.2 LNG Infrastructure
    • 2.3.3 City Gas Distribution Infrastructure.
  • 2.4 Indian Natural Gas Demand Scenario
    • 2.4.1 Power Scenario of India
    • 2.4.2 Fertilizer Sector of India
      • 2.4.2.1 Natural gas dependency for fertilizer sector
  • 2.5 Indian Natural Gas Supply Scenario
    • 2.5.1 LNG Supply reduction in 2015-16
    • 2.5.2 Negotiation Success
    • 2.5.3 Average Availability of gas companywide
  • 2.6 Indian Natural Gas Demand Supply Deficit
    • 2.6.1 Trends in Supply of Natural Gas for India
  • 2.7 Need for Natural Gas Cross Country Pipeline
  • 2.8 Energy Comparatives
    • 2.8.1 Chinese energy price comparison
    • 2.8.2 China-India Pipelines Comparison
• 3. Research Methodology
  • 3.1 Problem Definition
  • 3.2 Type of Research
  • 3.3 Research Process
  • 3.4 Research Objectives
• 4.Data Analysis
  • 4.1 Mapping of Demand Potential for natural gas pipeline in participated countries - India
  • 4.2 Mapping of Natural Gas Supply Potential of Turkmenistan
    • 4.2.1 Market Deterministic Approach:
    • 4.2.2 Regression analysis and determination of supply potential for Turkmenistan
  • 4.3 Risk Analysis of TAPI Pipeline
    • 4.3.1 Mapping of geopolitical perspectives of TAPI pipeline assessment
      • 4.3.1.1 Russian Perspective
      • 4.3.1.2 Chinese Perspective
      • 4.3.1.3 US, UK and Asia
    • 4.3.2 Judgmental Analysis for Accessing Assessment of Risk on Judgmental basis with respect to US
  • 4.4 Mapping of Pricing factors affecting natural gas pipeline in participating countries India
    • 4.4.1 APM Pricing
    • 4.4.2 NOC Pricing
    • 4.4.3 Market base pricing
      • 4.4.3.1 LNG import price
        • 4.4.3.1.a Long Term LNG Pricing
        • 4.4.3.1.b Spot LNG pricing
    • 4.4.4 Pre- NELP pricing
    • 4.4.5 NELP Pricing
  • 4.5 Correlation model for Pricing of Natural Gas
  • 4.6 Sensitivity Analysis for Pricing of Natural Gas
• 5. Mapping potential of economic factors of pipeline
  • 5.1 Pipeline cost, Material cost, Labor cost and Compressor Cost
    • 5.1.1 Assessment of Tonnage for TAPI Pipeline
    • 5.1.2 TAPI Pipeline Cost Assessment
    • 5.1.3 Assumptions for Assessments
    • 5.1.4 Project Cost
    • 5.1.5 Interest During Construction
    • 5.1.6 Financial Affordability of TAPI Pipeline Project
• 6. Strategy for Under Recoveries-Overburden of Adjustment of Natural Gas Price Differential
  • 6.1. Opportunistic strategy
    • 6.1.a Gas distribution with higher marketing margin
    • 6.1.b Gas distribution with higher gas pricing
  • 6.2. Negotiation strategy
    • 6.2.a Cheaper natural gas purchase from Turkmenistan
    • 6.2.b Discount in loan repayments by ADB
    • 6.2.c Complete loan waiver from ADB
    • 6.2.d Loan repayment by Turkmenistan
  • 6.3. Development Strategy
    • 6.3.a Allocation of different fund as Gas development from Oil Industry
    • 6.3.b Reserved fund from financial institution
    • 6.3.c Reserved fund from government in national financial budget
    • 6.3.d Reserved fund under gas development scheme for India in the form of cess collection
    • 6.3.e Dedicated fund from various manufacturing industries of India
    • 6.3.f Collection of fund from industrial and domestic consumers
  • 6.4. Cooperation Strategy
    • 6.4.a Financial help from Turkmenistan government
    • 6.4.b Financial help from other countries
    • 6.4.c Financial help from other financial institutes
• 7. Future Implications with impact of some global events on pipeline project
  • 7.1 Liberation of Kurdish Turkistan
  • 7.2 BREXIT - Britain's exit from European Union
• 8. Scope and Limitations

Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)

This report aims to analyze the potential of natural gas imports from Turkmenistan to India through the TAPI pipeline, taking into account various factors such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical risks, and pricing mechanisms.

• Analysis of India's potential natural gas import from Turkmenistan
• Risk assessment of the TAPI pipeline project
• Evaluation of economic factors affecting the pipeline
• Exploration of strategies for mitigating potential under-recoveries
• Assessment of future implications on the pipeline project due to global events

Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)

• Chapter 1: Introduction This chapter introduces the concept of natural gas utilization and provides an overview of the TAPI pipeline project, including its key facts and the natural gas production scenario in participating countries.
• Chapter 2: Literature Review This chapter delves into the role of natural gas as a secondary fuel for India, exploring the current natural gas scenario, infrastructure, and demand-supply dynamics. It also examines the energy comparatives between China and India, highlighting the need for a cross-country natural gas pipeline.
• Chapter 3: Research Methodology This chapter outlines the research methodology employed, defining the research problem, type of research, process, and objectives.
• Chapter 4: Data Analysis This chapter presents a detailed analysis of the demand potential for natural gas in India and the supply potential of Turkmenistan, considering geopolitical perspectives and pricing factors.
• Chapter 5: Mapping Potential of Economic Factors of Pipeline This chapter evaluates the economic factors affecting the pipeline, including costs associated with construction and materials.
• Chapter 6: Strategy for Under Recoveries-Overburden of Adjustment of Natural Gas Price Differential This chapter explores various strategies to mitigate potential under-recoveries or price differentials, including opportunistic, negotiation, and development strategies.
• Chapter 7: Future Implications with Impact of Some Global Events on Pipeline Project This chapter examines the potential impact of global events, such as the liberation of Kurdish Turkistan and Brexit, on the pipeline project.
• Chapter 8: Scope and Limitations This chapter discusses the scope and limitations of the research project.

Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)

The main keywords and focus topics of this report include: TAPI pipeline, natural gas import, Turkmenistan, India, risk analysis, geopolitical perspectives, pricing mechanisms, economic factors, demand-supply dynamics, under-recoveries, global events, and future implications.

• College: University of Petroleum and Energy Studies
• Course: MBA in oil and gas management
• Grade: 8.5
• Author: Sandesh Ghandat (Author)
• Publication Year: 2016
• Pages: 86
• Catalog Number: V337269
• ISBN (eBook): 9783668287389
• ISBN (Book): 9783668287396
• Language: English
• Tags: indian, tapi