A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for Terrorism Protection. Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear Incidents

Seminar Paper , 2012 , 30 Pages , Grade: 3

Medicine - Radiology, Nuclear Medicine

This decision analysis was compiled in order to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the different possible potassium iodide (KI) distribution methods for a hypothetical local region. The possibility of the release of radioactive iodine caused by nuclear accidents or terrorist actions makes it crucial to come up with the best distribution methods of KI in order to protect people against thyroid cancer.

Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Potassium Iodide (KI)
• 3. Background
  • 3.1. Chernobyl nuclear power plant
  • 3.2. Latest nuclear accident in Fukushima
• 4. Multiple-objective decision analysis for terrorism protection - key insights and main goal
• 5. Multiple-objective decision analysis process
  • 5.1. Decision Analysis in general
  • 5.2. Multiple-objective decision analysis in general
  • 5.3. Multiple-objective decision analysis for KI distribution
    • 5.3.1. Characteristics of the decision problem
    • 5.3.2. Objectives Hierarchy
    • 5.3.3. Single-Attribute Value Functions
    • 5.3.4. Weighs of the objectives
    • 5.3.5. Value gaps
    • 5.3.6. Alternatives
    • 5.3.7. Evaluation and decision
• 6. Sensitivity Analysis
  • 6.1. Sensitivity analysis in general
  • 6.2. Tailor made analysis to specific contexts
  • 6.3. One-Way Sensitivity Analysis
  • 6.4. Two-Way Sensitivity Analysis
• 7. Decision under uncertainty: A decision tree model
• 8. Similar studies

Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)

This decision analysis aims to provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of different potassium iodide (KI) distribution methods for a hypothetical local region. The goal is to determine the most effective distribution methods for protecting people against thyroid cancer in the event of a nuclear accident or terrorist attack involving radioactive iodine release.

• The importance of potassium iodide in protecting against thyroid cancer following radioactive iodine exposure
• The application of multiple-objective decision analysis in evaluating different KI distribution methods
• The factors influencing the effectiveness of KI distribution, including time of administration and environmental contamination levels
• The use of sensitivity analysis and decision tree models in determining optimal KI distribution strategies
• The relevance of similar studies and insights in the field of nuclear emergency preparedness

Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)

• Chapter 1: Introduction: This chapter introduces the purpose of the decision analysis, which is to evaluate different methods for distributing potassium iodide (KI) to protect people from thyroid cancer in the event of a nuclear accident or terrorist attack involving radioactive iodine release.
• Chapter 2: Potassium Iodide (KI): This chapter explains the importance of potassium iodide (KI) in protecting against thyroid cancer caused by radioactive iodine exposure. It discusses the properties of KI, its effectiveness, and the factors influencing its effectiveness.
• Chapter 3: Background: This chapter provides background information on previous nuclear accidents, including the Chernobyl disaster and the Fukushima nuclear accident. It highlights the importance of having effective KI distribution plans in place to mitigate the health risks associated with radioactive iodine exposure.
• Chapter 4: Multiple-objective decision analysis for terrorism protection - key insights and main goal: This chapter introduces the concept of multiple-objective decision analysis and its relevance in evaluating different KI distribution methods. It emphasizes the importance of considering various objectives and criteria in decision-making.
• Chapter 5: Multiple-objective decision analysis process: This chapter outlines the steps involved in conducting a multiple-objective decision analysis for KI distribution. It discusses various aspects of the process, including defining objectives, developing value functions, and evaluating alternatives.
• Chapter 6: Sensitivity Analysis: This chapter explains the role of sensitivity analysis in examining how changes in different input parameters affect the decision outcome. It covers various types of sensitivity analyses and their applications in the context of KI distribution.
• Chapter 7: Decision under uncertainty: A decision tree model: This chapter discusses decision-making under uncertainty and presents a decision tree model as a tool for evaluating different KI distribution strategies. It emphasizes the need to account for various possible outcomes and their probabilities.
• Chapter 8: Similar studies: This chapter explores relevant studies and research conducted in the field of nuclear emergency preparedness and KI distribution. It provides insights from other researchers and practitioners.

Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)

The main focus of this work lies on the application of multiple-objective decision analysis for assessing different potassium iodide (KI) distribution methods in case of a nuclear accident or terrorist attack. Key terms and concepts include potassium iodide, thyroid cancer, radioactive iodine exposure, decision analysis, sensitivity analysis, decision tree model, nuclear emergency preparedness, and terrorism protection. The analysis aims to provide a comprehensive framework for decision-making regarding KI distribution in a hypothetical local region.

• College: University of Vienna (Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre)
• Course: OR in Health Care
• Grade: 3
• Authors: Alexandra Barokova (Author), Miroslava Jergusova (Author)
• Publication Year: 2012
• Pages: 30
• Catalog Number: V340145
• ISBN (eBook): 9783668299481
• ISBN (Book): 9783668299498
• Language: English
• Tags: nuclear war, iodide distribution, potassium iodide, terrorism