Trends, Growth and Instability of Finger millet Production in Ethiopia

The study was based on secondary data pertaining from 1981 to 2012 aimed at assessing trends, growth and variability in area, production and yield of finger millet in Ethiopia using Compounded Annual Growth Rate, Cuddy Della Vally Index and Decomposition Analysis. The study revealed that finger millet production in Ethiopia is in the winning ground as productivity increase accompanied by decline in instability. The Research and Development towards finger millet production has started paying despite the effort of different actors as yield has increased consistently over the recent years. However, local varieties are still dominant in the farming community and attention should be given in the generating of improved varieties and popularisation of the already available materials in the part of the country where the crop is a staple food like Amhara region mainly West Gojjam and Awi zones.

Key words: Finger millet, Cuddy Della Valley Index, Instability, Compounded Annual Growth Rate, Decomposition Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Finger millet (Eleusine coracana) is one of the neglected and underutilized crops of Africa. It is extensively cultivated in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of Africa and India and is known to save the lives of poor farmers from starvation at times of extreme drought (Kotschi, 2006). It adapt to a wide range of environments and grown mainly by subsistence farmers and serves as a food security crop because of its high nutritional value and excellent storage qualities and its importance as a low input crop (Dida et al, 2007).

Ethiopia is one of the major producers of finger millet in addition to Uganda, India, Nepal and China and it is also native to the highlands of the country. Finger mille plays an important role in both the dietary needs and incomes of many rural households like other African countries due to its richness in fiber, iron and calcium.

Over the recent decades agricultural output has risen in Ethiopia despite the effort the government has put in action to attain self sufficiency through launching different schemes that have brought about increase in agricultural extension services and use of improved agricultural technologies. Finger millet which is a poor man's crop is being grown by the rural poor farmers at a margin with low yield and rust diseases mainly in Amhara and Oromiya regions. Due to its importance different interventions have been effective to enhance it productivity in the country. With this backdrop the present study aimed at assessing the trends, growth and instability of finger millet production in Ethiopia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study was based on secondary data from FAOSTAT and CSA. Descriptive and tabular analyses were used in addition to Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Decomposition Analysis and Cuddy Della Valle Index (CDVI). The growth rates (r) of area, production and yield of finger millet were estimated using the formula:

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where: Yt is the variable for which growth is calculated at tth period, t is the time variable, A is constant, B is [illustration not visible in this excerpt] is compound growth rate and 'e' is error term. Transforming this to logarithmic form

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Then CAGR calculated as:

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Any change in the output of a crop in physical term depends fundamentally on the changes in the area under the crop and its average yield. To determine the source of production growth and to measure the effect of area, productivity and their interaction in increasing crop output, differential equation given by Sharma (1977) was used:

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The first term on the right hand side is considered as yield effect, second term as the area effect and the third as the interaction effect. Thus, total change in output can be decomposed into three effects; yield effect, area effect, and interaction effect due to change in yield and area.

In this study, the instability in area, production and productivity was estimated using Cuddy-Della Valle index (CDVI). Though the coefficient of variation (CV) is commonly used for estimating the dispersion with comparability across various units, it cannot be used in case of time series data characterized by time trend. Any measure of instability needs to exclude the deviation in the data series that may arise due to secular trend or growth. CDVI was originally developed by John Cuddy and Della Valle for measuring the instability in time series data that is characterized by trend (Cuddy and Della Valle, 1978). The estimable form of the equation is as follows:

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Where: I is the instability index in percent, CV is the coefficient of variation in percent, [illustration not visible in this excerpt]is the coefficient of determination from time trend regression adjusted by the number of degree of freedom.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Trends in Area, Production and Yield of Finger millet in Ethiopia

Millets which include both finger millet and pearl millet mainly produced in Africa and India. In Triennium Ending (TE) 2012 from the global area and production of millets African countries contributed 61 percent of area under millets and 47 percent of production followed by India (31.2 percent of area and 42.53 percent of production). Among African countries Ethiopia contributed 2.1 percent of area and 4.8 percent of production of millets specifically finger millet with relatively higher yield than

African and global average (Table 1).

In Ethiopia 1,577,250 private peasant holders have grown finger millet on about 431,507 ha of land and produced 742,297 tons in 2012/13 ‘meher’ season (CSA, 2013). As it can be clearly seen in Figure 1, area, production and yield of finger millet have increased over the TE years. A sharp increase in area, production and yield were observed in 2000s unlike the previous time periods (Figure 1).

Growth and Source of Growth in Finger millet Production in Ethiopia

Over the past three decades area, production and yield of finger millet has shown increasing trend that has brought about twofold area under finger millet and more than threefold increase in production as well as more than 62% increase in yield between TE 1983 and TE 2012. The growth in area and production were highest in the decade between 1991 and 2000 which were 11.25 percent and 10.32 percent per annum respectively while the growth in yield was highest between the period 2001 and 2012 which was 5.15 percent per annum (Table 2).

Between the year 1981 and 1990 finger millet production has declined in Ethiopia by about 52 thousand tones due to area effect while yield effect has brought about increase in production by about 25 thousand tones. However, between 1991 and 2000 production has increased by about 98 thousand tones and it was mainly due to area effect but yield effect was observed to be negative. Similarly, between 2001 and 2012 finger millet production has increased by more than 426 thousand tones and yield effect (66%) was observed to be much more than area effect (18%) (Table 3).

Yield increase of finger millet in the country in 2000s might be due to the release of improved finger millet varieties. In 1993, 57 finger millet lines were introduced from East African Regional Sorghum & Millets Network (EARSAM) and two of the lines were released in 1998 with the names Tadesse and Padet. From the same set another line was released for production in the western Ethiopian region in 2002 with the name Boneya (Adugna, 2007). More over in the north western part of the country landraces identified as Baruda and Dibatse also released in 2007 and 2010 respectively.

Instability in Area, Production and Yield of Finger millet in Ethiopia

Instability analysis of finger millet has witnessed that from the period 1981 - 1990 to 1991 - 2000 instability in area, production and yield has increased and then decreased to the period 2001 - 2012 from 1991 - 2000. The decline in instability was highest for yield might be due to increase in adoption of improved finger millet varieties

Table 1. Area, production and yield of millets in selected countries in TE 2012.

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Author's calculation based on data from FAOSTAT

Figures in parenthesis denote share of African countries from Africa and share of India from world

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Figure 1. Trends in area, production and yield of finger millet in Ethiopia.

Table 2. Trends and growth in finger millet area, production and yield in Ethiopia.

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Author's calculation based on data from FAOSTAT

Table 3. Source of growth of finger millet production in Ethiopia.

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Author's calculation based on data from FAOSTAT

which are drought resistant (Table 4). has shown that during the period 1991 to 2000

The combined analysis of growth and instability in yield decrease in yield was accompanied by increase in

Table 4. Instability in area, production and yield of finger millet in Ethiopia

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Author's calculation based on data from FAOSTAT

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Table 5. Change in yield and instability in finger millet in Ethiopia.

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instability. During the period 2001 to 2012 growth in yield was coupled with decrease in variability (Table 5).

Summary and Conclusion

Due to its importance in the farming calculus of the poor and subsistence farmers in the country trend, growth and instability in finger millet production in Ethiopia has witnessed winning ground in the recent past as productivity increase accompanied by decline in instability. The Research and Development towards finger millet production has started paying despite the effort of different actors as yield has increased consistently over the years. However, local varieties are still dominant in the farming community and attention should be given in the generating of improved varieties and popularisation of the already available materials in the part of the country where the crop is a staple food like Amhara region mainly West Gojjam and Awi zones.

REFERENCES

Adugna, A. (2007). The role of introduced sorghum and millets in Ethiopian agriculture. ICRISAT SAT eJournal 3 (1), Hyderabad, India.

CSA (2013). Central Statistics Agency, Government of Ethiopia

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Dida, M.M., Srinivasachary, Ramakrishnan, S., Bennetzen, J.L., Gale, M.D., Devos, K.M. (2007). The genetic map of finger millet, Eleusine coracana. Theor Appl Genet. 114:321-332.

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Hilu, K.W., de Wet, J.M.J., Harlan, J.R. (1979). Archaeobotanical studies of Elueusine coracana ssp. coracana (finger millet). Am. J. Bot. 66: 330-333.

Kotschi, J. (2006). Coping with Climate Change, and the Role of Agrobiodiversity. Conference on International Agricultural Research for Development. Tropentag 2006 University of Bonn. October 11-13, 2006.

Sharma, K. L. (1977). Measurement of the effect of area, yield, and prices in the increase of value of crop output in India, Agricultural Situation in India, 32(6).