Unfairness in Penalty. Modeling the Psychological Advantage of Starting the Shootouts

An Empirical Approach

Seminar Paper , 2016 , 22 Pages , Grade: 1,7

Economics - Statistics and Methods

Despite it’s name, the field of game theory has had for a long time a somewhat weaker relationship with sports and games in general – although it has always been more advanced than other fields in economics with regards to its closeness to sports and games. In its early days, game theory was mostly occupied with big and more serious topics than sports and games, such as industrial organization in economics, wars and other military issues in political sciences. The reason behind this development in the early days of game theory might be due the fact that this field kind of been developed through turbulent times of World War II and Cold War – for example (e.g.) „prisoner’s dilemma“ within the nuclear arms race between USA and Russia (back then USSR).

Lately though there has been some development in the game theory within other fields, like sports and games, especially football, books like "The economics of football" (2001) and "Soccernomics" (2012) are good starting points into the subject. While these books generally inquire help from economics to explain football’s issues, Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (2010) (and Palacios-Huerta (2014)) gives priority to illustrate how football can help economics (the other way around).

Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Literature Overview
• 3. Causal Effect, Identification and Randomization
  • 3.1. Modeling Causal Effect and Randomization
  • 3.2. Conclusion.
• 4. Binomial Regression
  • 4.1. Linear Probability Model .
  • 4.2. Non-Linear Models
    • 4.2.1. Probit
    • 4.2.2. Logit
    • 4.2.3. Conclusion.
• 5. The Data-sets, Variables and it's Statistics
• 6. Regressions
• 7. Conclusion

Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)

This seminar paper aims to empirically replicate the work of Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (2010) using the statistical software R (2015) and the glm R-Package to perform binomial regressions to calculate if a team that starts the penalty shootouts has a higher probability at winning the game at the end, then otherwise. The paper also explores possible further improvements and specifications that could enhance the results found by Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (2010).

• The psychological advantage of starting penalty shootouts in football.
• Modeling causal effect and randomization in the context of penalty shootouts.
• The application of binomial regression to analyze the probability of winning a game after a penalty shootout.
• Data analysis and statistical modeling to determine the impact of starting the penalty shootout on game outcomes.
• Exploring potential improvements and specifications for the analysis of penalty shootouts.

Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)

The paper begins with an introduction that provides context and highlights the growing interest in applying game theory to sports, particularly football. It then reviews relevant literature on the unfairness of penalty shootouts, emphasizing the work of Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (2010). The paper delves into the theoretical aspects of causal effect, identification, and randomization, providing a foundation for the empirical analysis. It then introduces binomial regression, discussing both linear probability models and non-linear models (Probit and Logit). The paper then describes the data used for the analysis, outlining the variables and relevant statistics. Finally, the paper presents the results of various regression models, comparing them to the findings of Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (2010). The conclusion summarizes the findings, suggests potential improvements to the data analysis, and explores possible changes to the penalty shootout system that could promote fairness.

Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)

This paper focuses on the analysis of penalty shootouts in football, employing game theory, binomial regression, and empirical data analysis. Key concepts include causal effect, randomization, unfairness, psychological advantage, Probit and Logit models, and statistical modeling.

• College: University of Duisburg-Essen
• Grade: 1,7
• Author: Felipe Mannshardt Oliveira (Author)
• Publication Year: 2016
• Pages: 22
• Catalog Number: V356898
• ISBN (eBook): 9783668430839
• ISBN (Book): 9783668430846
• Language: English
• Tags: unfairness, penalty, modeling, psychological, advantage, starting, shootouts, empirical, approach