The purpose of this seminar paper is to determine Israel’s current economic situation, the economic outlook for the next two years and the mains risks the country is exposed to.
In this paper we evaluate Israel’s current real Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth rate, current and lagging indicators influencing the GDP growth rate and different forecast models with input sample real GDP data. Finally the model with the best performance to forecast Israel’s real GDP growth will be applied, providing a forecast for the next two fiscal years.
Table of content
Summary
1 Introduction
2 Israels Real GDP
2.1 Data
2.2 Business Cycle
2.3 Leading or lagging Indicators
3 Forecast assumptions
3.1 Oil Price
3.2 Exchange Rate
3.3 Business cycle US
4 Business Cycle forecast
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Our approach
4.3 Methodology
4.4 Evaluation Results
4.5 Final Forecast
4.6 Forecast Values and forecast Comparison
4.7 Conclusion:
5 Risk analyisis
6 Biblography
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