The long-term reduction of hunger has recently slowed down as a result of ongoing global climate change, increasing climate variability, and extreme weather events, disrupting our global food system. The direct impacts of climate change in Germany are expected to be comparably low and the ability to adapt to these impacts is high. However, it is likely that Germany, as part of a highly interconnected world, may become increasingly affected by climate change impacts in other world regions.
This thesis investigates how adverse effects of global climate change can be transferred across borders to demonstrate the various potential indirect impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on food systems. Moreover, this study seeks to assess how far the direct effects on agricultural productivity abroad and the disruption of transportation-related infrastructures can affect the German food system to depict its level of exposure to the indirect effects of global climate change via trade of agricultural commodities. The results show that Germany is heavily dependent on the import of soybeans, palm oil, bananas, and coffee from increasingly vulnerable trading partners outside of Europe.
The direct impact on the production of these commodities represents a significant threat to the German food system via trade. The evidence suggests that improved understanding of the indirect impacts of climate change on food systems is needed to be able to adapt to the full range of risks from climate change, climate variability and extreme events on agricultural production.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
1.1 Significance and Aim of the study
1.2 Research Methods
2 State of the Art
2.1 Food systems and food security: concepts, relationships and trends
2.1.1 Food systems and food security
2.1.2 Globalization of our food systems
2.2 Observed and projected climatic changes
2.2.1 Climate change and global warming
2.2.2 Climate variability and extreme weather events
2.2.3 Global climate change projections
2.3 Direct impacts of climate change on food production
2.3.1 Sensitivity of agricultural production to climate change
2.3.2 Long-term effects of climate change
2.3.3 Short-term effects of climate variability and extreme events
3 Indirect effects of climate change on food systems
3.1 Terminology and concept of the indirect effects of climate change
3.2 Transmission of climate change impacts across borders
3.2.1 Infrastructure
3.2.2 Finance
3.2.3 People
3.2.4 Trade
3.3 Transmission of climate change impacts along food systems via trade
3.4 Vulnerability to the indirect impacts of climate change
4 Exposure of the German food system to the indirect effects of climate change
4.1 Structure of the German food system
4.2 Agricultural commodity-import dependency
4.2.1 Soybeans
4.2.2 Palm oil
4.2.3 Bananas
4.2.4 Coffee
4.3 Vulnerability of the major German trading partners
5 Results
5.1 Direct impacts of climate change on food production
5.2 Indirect impacts of climate change on food systems
5.3 Exposure of the German food system to the indirect effects of climate change
6 Discussion
7 Conclusion
Objectives and Core Topics
This master thesis investigates how negative effects of climate change and extreme weather events occurring abroad can affect the German food system, focusing specifically on transmission mechanisms like trade and infrastructure interdependencies.
- Analysis of direct climate change impacts on global agricultural productivity.
- Exploration of transmission pathways (infrastructure, finance, people, trade) for indirect climate risks.
- Evaluation of the German food system's exposure to import-dependent supply chain shocks.
- Case study of the 2010 Russian heatwave to illustrate transboundary ripple effects on food markets.
- Assessment of vulnerability within key agricultural commodity supply chains.
Excerpt from the Book
3.1 Terminology and concept of the indirect effects of climate change
Since the AR5, much progress has been made and a broad range of terms have been used in different fields of academia to describe and analyse the indirect impacts of climate change and their transmission across borders, posing a new risk to the worldwide community of states, widely denoted as the “international dimension of climate risk” (PwC, 2013). However, no common ground has yet been found to agree on a particular term for the impacts of climate change that affect one country as a result of climate change impacts in another country. Despite the difficulties of finding a clear terminology for these impacts, this study uses the term “indirect impacts of climate change” as introduced by Benzie et al. (2013) as the opponent to the “direct impacts of climate change” that occur within one country, as described in the previous chapter. Other examples of terms that have been used in the context of indirect impacts of climate change are among others “spill-over effects” (Cerveny et al., 2014), “cascading impacts” (World Bank, 2014), “transnational impacts” (Benzie et al., 2016), and “cross-border impacts” (EEA, 2017), all linking the two global processes, climate change and globalization. Although, these terms can have differential implications in different fields of research, in this study they are used coequally to describe how the effects of climate change and extreme weather events can be transferred across borders, and hence, cause trans-boundary and/or long-distance impacts.
Summary of Chapters
1 Introduction: Provides the problem statement regarding global climate change and its complex, transboundary risks to national food security, while outlining the research aim and methodology.
2 State of the Art: Offers a critical literature review on food systems, food security, and the climatic drivers of agricultural disruption, including long-term trends and short-term shocks.
3 Indirect effects of climate change on food systems: Establishes the theoretical framework for understanding how climate impacts propagate across borders through pathways like infrastructure, finance, migration, and trade.
4 Exposure of the German food system to the indirect effects of climate change: Analyzes the specific structure of Germany's agricultural imports and assesses the vulnerability of key trading partners to climate shocks.
5 Results: Synthesizes the findings on direct and indirect impacts, confirming that Germany’s high import dependency renders it significantly exposed to external climate-related disruptions.
6 Discussion: Reflects on the challenges of tracing complex indirect impacts and emphasizes the necessity for integrated adaptation planning beyond national borders.
7 Conclusion: Summarizes the study’s findings and underscores the urgency of addressing global interdependencies in adaptation strategies to ensure future food security.
Keywords
Climate change, extreme weather events, climate change impacts, transmission pathways, indirect effects, agricultural productivity, food systems, trade, supply chains, food security, vulnerability, Germany, globalization, teleconnection, import dependency.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this thesis?
The research focuses on the "indirect effects" of climate change, specifically how extreme weather events in distant countries impact the German food system through global supply chains.
What are the central themes of the work?
The central themes include food security, the globalization of food markets, transboundary climate risks, and the vulnerability of import-dependent economies.
What is the primary research goal?
The primary goal is to describe direct climate impacts abroad, analyze the concept of indirect effects, and evaluate the exposure level of the German food system to these risks.
Which methodology is applied?
The research is primarily based on an extensive, systematic literature review combined with an analysis of German agricultural import data and trade structures.
What is covered in the main body?
The main body moves from theoretical frameworks of climate transmission (infrastructure, finance, trade) to an empirical assessment of Germany's dependency on specific commodities and vulnerable trading partners.
What defines the core terminology used?
The work utilizes the term "indirect impacts of climate change" as proposed by Benzie et al. (2013) to distinguish these transboundary effects from direct localized climate damage.
How does the 2010 Russian heatwave serve as a case study?
It illustrates how a localized climate disaster led to national export bans, causing ripple effects that spiked wheat prices globally, particularly affecting net-importing countries like Egypt.
What conclusion does the author reach regarding German adaptation?
The author concludes that because Germany is highly integrated into global food markets, it is in its own self-interest to fund adaptation efforts in developing countries to stabilize supply chains.
Why is the "vulnerability" concept used in this study?
It is used as a proxy to measure how exposed Germany is, based on the dependency ratios of its primary agricultural suppliers in regions prone to climate-induced yield failures.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Avigdor Burmeister (Autor:in), 2017, Indirect effects of global climate change and the impact of extreme weather events on the German food system, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/417322
