Development of the Sudanese Construction Industry SCI using Dynamic Modeling

The relationship between SCI and its contribution to the Sudanese GDP


Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation, 2018
269 Pages

Excerpt

CONTENTS

DeDICATION

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

List of figures

List of Tabels

list of abbreviations

Abstract XXI

المستخلص

1 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
1.2 Theoretical Background
1.3 Research aim
1.4 Research Objectives
1.5 Research Questions
1.6 Research Frameworks
1.7 Structure of the Thesis

2 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Construction Industry (Cl)
2.3 The construction and Building Materials Industry and The Role of Oil Production
2.4 Construction Industry Development
2.5 Constraints of developing Construction Industry
2.6 Review of Studies in Construction Sector
2.7 Systems in Different Countries
2.7.1 Experience of the United Kingdom
2.7.2 Experience of Malaysia
2.7.3 Experience of the Republic of Turkey
2.7.4 Experience of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
2.7.5 Evidence of International Best Practice
2.8 Sustainability in Construction Development
2.8.1 Sustainable development
2.8.2 Sustainability in construction
2.8.3 Urban sustainability
2.9 Factors influencing the Construction Industry
2.9.1 Transfer of Technology (TT)
2.9.2 Competitive Environment
2.9.3 Regulation for the Sector
2.9.4 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
2.9.5 Macroeconomic indicators (Inflation rate (IF) and exchange rate)
2.9.6 Engineering Education
2.9.7 Production of constructions inputs materials
2.9.8 Fluman resource and employment
2.9.9 Training and Capacity skill
2.9.10 Migration of Engineers and Technician
2.9.11 Loss of Physical Infrastructure
2.9.12 Order of Law
2.9.13 Structuring System (to disturb the work according to standard classification)
2.9.14 Globalisation
2.9.15 Imbalance of private/public sectors
2.9.16 Research and Development
2.10 Summary

3 CHAPTER THREE SUDANESE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY AND ITS ROLE IN THE ECONOMY
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 The Single Body System
3.1.2 The Multi Fragmented System
3.2 The Challenges of the Construction Industry
3.2.1 The economic weaknesses
3.2.2 Poor Performance of the Construction Industries
3.2.3 The gap between government understanding and industry requirement
3.2.4 Public-Sector Capacity
3.2.5 The mismatch between Available Skills and Required Skills
3.2.6 Critical Global Issues/Globalisation
3.2.7 Availability of Infrastructure
3.2.8 Increases in the Costs of Building Materials
3.2.9 Statutes and Regulations
3.3 Construction and the economy
3.3.1 Economic Policies and Plans in Sudan: Historical Overview
3.3.2 The Performance of the Sudanese Economy
3.3.3 The Structure of the Sudanese Economy
3.4 The Contribution of the Construction Industry to the National Economy
3.5 Summary

4 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Data Typology
4.2.1 Quantitative data
4.2.2 Qualitative data
4.2.3 Mixed data
4.3 Data Collection Methods
4.3.1 Observation
4.3.2 Survey
4.3.3 Grounded theory
4.3.4 Action research
4.3.5 Ethnography
4.3.6 Casestudy
4.3.7 Questionnaire
4.3.8 Interview
4.3.9 Focus group
4.4 Methods Adopted in the Current study
4.5 System Dynamic Model
4.5.1 Pre-SDM modelling:
4.5.2 SDM modelling:
4.5.3 Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach:
4.6 Summary

5 Chapter Five SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODELLING OF THE Construction Industry IN SUDAN
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Data Collected
5.2.1 Introduction
5.2.2 Factors influencing Construction Industry (Cl) in Sudan
5.3 Dataanalysis
5.3.1 Statistical analysis
5.3.2 Mean Value
5.3.3 The coefficient of variation (cov)
5.3.4 Importance index (Severity index)
5.3.5 Kendall's rank correlation coefficient τ
5.4 Dynamie weights
5.5 System dynamics model SDM
5.5.1 SD tool (Vensim®)
5.5.2 Model sketching
5.5.3 Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach
5.5.4 Mathematical model
5.6 Building and validation of model's equations
5.7 Summary

6 CHAPTER SIX RESULTSAND DISCUSSIONS Ill
6.1 Introduction Ill
6.1.1 Statistical results Ill
6.1.2 Dynamic weights
6.2 Basic SDM
6.3 Preliminary SDM
6.3.1 Dynamic sketching
6.4 Developed SDM
6.4.1 SDM factor relationships trees and loops:
6.4.2 Summary of Trees Relationships for the SCI Factors
6.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis of SDM
6.4.4 Sensitivity Analysis Examples
6.4.5 Discussion on SDM model
6.4.6 The mathematical validity of the SDM
6.4.7 The conclusion of the three SDMs
6.5 SDM as an appraisal tool for policies
6.5.1 GDP molecule connected with developed SDM
6.6 Overview of the SCI share of GDP
6.6.1 Validation of the model
6.6.2 Factor scenarios
6.6.3 Strategies
6.6.4 What does this figure of GDP(Construction) represent?
6.7 Discussion of the results obtained from the interviews and a report of the Ministry of Finance
6.7.1 Discussion of results of interviews and questionnaires
6.7.2 Discussion of the ministry of finance report
6.7.3 Scenarios of different policies for the factors
6.7.4 Scenarios of different strategies
6.8 Summary

7 CHAPTER SEVEN CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 Summary and Achievements
7.2 Research Limitations
7.3 Value of the Research and the Contribution to Knowledge
7.3.1 Value of the research
7.3.2 Achievements
7.4 Research Recommendations
7.4.1 Recommendations based on influencing factors
7.4.2 Recommendations based on strategies
7.5 Recommendations for Future Studies:

References

8 Appendices
8.1 Appendix 1: Questionnaire for Academicians, Practitioners and Government officials
8.2 Appendix 2: Participant names and qualifications
8.3 Appendix 3.1: Q1 results and statistical analysis
8.4 Appendix 4.1: Dynamic weights
8.5 Appendix 3.2: Q2 results
8.6 Appendix 3.3: Q3 results
8.7 Appendix 3.4: Q4 results
8.8 Appendix 4.2: Kendall coefficient and CoV
8.9 Appendix 5: Factors relationships
8.10 Appendix 6.1: Results of structured GAs
8.11 Appendix 6.2: Results of random GAs
8.12 Appendix 7: Loops relations from SDM
8.13 Appendix 8: Summary of factors tress
8.14 Appendix 9: share on GDP (1982-2014)
8.15 Appendix 10: Real rate of growth (1982-2014)
8.16 Appendix 11: Optimization process
(Appendix 11
8.17 Appendix 12: GDP results
8.18 Appendix 13: Report of Ministry of Finance
8.19 Appendix 14.1: verification for the source of variation using multiple comparisons definition for group 4
8.20 Appendix 14.2: verification for the source of variation using multiple comparisons definition for group

DEDICATION

I dedicate this work to my father, mother, brothers and sisters

To my wife and children To my friends and Colleagues And

To all who are believing of a better future

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

First of all, I need to thank Allah Almighty, the most glorious and merciful for helping me and guiding me to pursue my PhD thesis in an appropriate manner

Basically, doing a PhD is a long-term journey with a lot of challenges and struggles, and I would not have been able to come to its end without the assistance, support and inspiration of many people. I am trying to send my thankfulness to all people who contributed to the completion of my PhD by providing me with knowledge and motivations

First of all, I would like to state my deepest gratitude to my academic and professional supervisor Dr Abdullah Mohamed Awadallah, the expert in the field of construction in Sudan, for his continuous support, patience and support to complete the research and his keen interest in the details, and Professor Ahmed Majzoub Ahmed, the co-supervisor on the economic side for the confidence he gave US, and for the information he provided and his best analysis of the reality of the Sudanese economy, which he has been aware of and has worked to develop it. I would like to thank them for their abundant help, encouragement and enthusiasm, useful suggestions and leadership throughout my dissertation

Also, I would like to thank all my colleagues for assisting me during the thesis periods with outstanding knowledge and experience. I would never forget all the moments of chatting and discussion we shared. A special thank goes to Professor Elhaj Elsiddig Taha who is external verifier in construction for City & Guilds-UK. for reviewing and preserving time for the research, Dr Taha Elhag Associate Professor Fleriot-Watt University for his continued support and revision for the research, Professor Sharif Fadel of the University of Khartoum for his great ideas to adopt the Genetic Algorithm approach in the research and supplying all programmes and information needed, Professor Roger Flanagan Professor of Construction Management at Reading University, Dr Tabarak Musa Awad Ballal, Associate Professor Reading University, Dr Carol Jewell, Research Fellow Reading University, Dr. Mudthar Sulaiman Ali from the University of Khartoum for their keen assistance and continued support through ideas, information and references and their vision to develop Sudan Construction industry

I would like to thank them for the support and motivation she gave me during my thesis. Thanks, and appreciation to the brothers, the young engineers who spent the nights and supplied me with information and programs, on top of them Engineer Abubaker Elfatih Ahmed Gameil, Eng. othman Yousef and Eng. Musab Elfatih for his creativity in the presentation of the Thesis

My greatest gratitude goes to all Experts, consultancies and contractor's companies for providing me with a lot of information for my study and guiding me to many resources for relevant data

My greetings and appreciation for brothers in the Union of Sudanese contractors and the organizing Council of Engineering Works Contractors for their efforts and help to complete the research. I am grateful to my company staff who assisted me in the completion of the research by supporting me in software practising, Questionnaire's distribution and Data Collection

I dedicate this thesis to my parents who continually gave me the guidance and the advice during the year of study, and also to my sisters and brothers. And my small family and generous wife and children Ali, Noon and Anas for their patience on what the research took from the time they should have deserved

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 : Dispersion of work into different bodies within Sudan

Figure 1.2: The research framework with all the activities in conducting a research including overlaps

Figure 2.1: Share of Cl in UK GDP (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)

Figure 2.2: Share of Cl in Malaysia GDP (Department of Statistics, Malaysia)

Figure 2.3: Share of Cl in Turkish GDP (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)

Figure 2.4: Share of Cl in KSA GDP (central department of statistics and information, Saudi Arabia)

Figure 3.1: GDP growth (2001-2014) (CBOS, 2014)

Figure 3.2: Inflation rates (2000-2014)

Figure 3.3: Rate of exchange during the years (2007-2014)

Figure 3.4: The Sudanese economy depends on the primary industry (2014)

Figure 3.5: construction output and its growth in Sudan during 2000-2014

Figure 3.6: Change in the Sudanese economic structure (UN Data)

Figure 5.1: Factor ID - FI respondents

Figure 5.2: Factor ID - F2 respondents

Figure 5.3: Factor ID - F3 respondents

Figure 5.4: Factor ID - F4 respondents

Figure 5.5: Factor ID - F5 respondents

Figure 5.6: Factor ID - F6 respondents

Figure 5.7: Factor ID - F7 respondents

Figure 5.8: Factor ID - F8 respondents

Figure 5.9: Factor ID - F9 respondents

Figure 5.10: Factor ID - FIO respondents

Figure 5.11: Factor ID - Fll respondents

Figure 5.12: Factor ID - F12 respondents

Figure 5.13: Factor ID - F13 respondents

Figure 5.14: Factor ID - F14 respondents

Figure 5.15: Factor ID - F15 respondents

Figure 5.16: Factor ID - F16 respondents

Figure 5.17: Relationships types and structure of a CLD

Figure 5.18: stock and flow diagrams in SDM

Figure 5.19: System Dynamics Mode major paradigms

Figure 5.20: Initial sketch using Vensim® PLE 6.4

Figure 5.21: Use of GA as a solution to single and multi-objective problems in systems such as Cl system

Figure 5.22: Crossover of a factor n at a random location or node in the GA

Figure 5.23: GDP factor representing overall system weight after setting all factor values to a benchmark value of zero

Figure 5.24: (Production of construction materials) factor recording a value of units after setting all factor values to a benchmark value of zero

Figure 5.25: Process Cl system analysis steps

Figure 6.1: Kendall coefficient for five groups

Figure 6.2: Basic Dynamic model

Figure 6.3: summation relation of the basic dynamic model

Figure 6.4: Dynamic summation

Figure 6.5: Whiteboard sketching

Figure 6.6: Dynamic Sketch

Figure 6.7: SDM failure

Figure 6.8: Developed model (summation)

Figure 6.9: Factors affecting Transfer Technology

Figure 6.10: Factors influenced by Transfer Technology

Figure 6.11: Factors affecting Competitive Environment

Figure 6.12: Factors influenced by Competitive Environment

Figure 6.13: Factors affecting Regulation for the sector

Figure 6.14: Factors influenced by Regulation for the sector

Figure 6.15: Factors affecting FDI

Figure 6.16: Factors influenced by FDI

Figure 6.17: Factors affecting macroeconomic indicators

Figure 6.18: Factors influenced by macro-economic indicators

Figure 6.19: Factors affecting Engineering Education

Figure 6.20: Factors influenced by Engineering Education

Figure 6.21: Factors affecting Production of construction inputs materials

Figure 6.22: Factors influenced by Production of construction inputs materials

Figure 6.23: Factors affecting Fluman resource and employment

Figure 6.24: Factors influenced by Fluman resource and employment

Figure 6.25: Factors affecting Training & Skills Capacity

Figure 6.26: Factors influenced by Training & Skills Capacity

Figure 6.27: Factors affecting Migration of Engineers and Technicians

Figure 6.28: Factors influenced by Migration of Engineers and Technicians

Figure 6.29: Factors affecting Losses of physical infrastructure Technicians

Figure 6.30: Factors influenced by Losses of physical infrastructure

Figure 6.31: Factors affecting Absence of order of Law

Figure 6.32: Factors influenced by Absence of order of Law

Figure 6.33: Factors affecting Absence of standard classification system for work delivery

Figure 6.34: Factors influenced by Absence of standard classification system for work delivery

Figure 6.35: Factors affecting Globalisation

Figure 6.36: Factors influenced by Globalisation

Figure 6.37: Factors affecting Imbalance between private/government sectors

Figure 6.38: Factors influenced by Imbalance between private/government sectors

Figure 6.39: Factors affecting Research and Development

Figure 6.40: Factors influenced by Research and Development

Figure 6.41: Checking sensitivity of SDM using the small value

Figure 6.42: Checking sensitivity of SDM using the maximum value

Figure 6.43: Direct relations between factors

Figure 6.44: Changes in motion due to the increment of weight

Figure 6.45: Changes in motion due to the increment of weight

Figure 6.46: Ranks of dynamic loops of factors

Figure 6.47: Ranks of dynamic weights of factors

Figure 6.48: Main categories contributing with GDP(construction)

Figure 6.49: Main categories contributing with GDP(construction)

Figure 6.50: Factors affecting Transfer Technology

Figure 6.51: Factors influenced by Transfer Technology

Figure 6.52: Factors affecting Competitive Environment

Figure 6.53: Factors influenced by Competitive Environment

Figure 6.54: Factors affecting Regulation for the sector

Figure 6.55: Factors influenced by Regulation for the sector

Figure 6.56: Factors affecting Foreign Direct Investment

Figure 6.57: Factors influenced by Foreign Direct Investment

Figure 6.58: Factors affecting macroeconomic indicators

Figure 6.59: Factors influenced macroeconomic indicators

Figure 6.60: Factors affecting Engineering Education

Figure 6.61: Factors influenced by Engineering Education

Figure 6.62: Factors affecting Production of construction inputs materials

Figure 6.63: Factors influenced by Production of construction inputs materials

Figure 6.64: Factors affecting Fluman resource and employment

Figure 6.65: Factors influenced by Fluman resource and employment

Figure 6.66: Factors affecting Training & Skills Capacity

Figure 6.67: Factors influenced by Training & Skills Capacity

Figure 6.68: Factors affecting Migration of Engineers and Technicians

Figure 6.69: Factors influenced by Migration of Engineers and Technicians

Figure 6.70: Factors affecting Losses of physical infrastructure

Figure 6.71: Factors influenced by Losses of physical infrastructure

Figure 6.72: Factor affecting Absence of order of Law

Figure 6.73: Factors influenced by Absence of order of Law

Figure 6.74: Factors affecting Absence of standard classification system

Figure 6.75: Factors influenced by Absence of standard classification system

Figure 6.76: Factors affecting Globalisation

Figure 6.77: Factors influenced by Globalisation

Figure 6.78: Factors affecting Imbalance between private/government sectors

Figure 6.79: Factors influenced by Imbalance between private/government sectors

Figure 6.80: Factors affecting Research and Development

Figure 6.81: Factors influenced by Research and Development

Figure 6.82: SCI shares of GDP

Figure 6.83: Relative stability in the sector's contribution to GDP

Figure 6.84: Optimized point of SCI GDP(construction)

Figure 6.85: Benchmark model of SCI GDP(construction)

Figure 6.86: Scenarios of expected SCI GDP(construction)

Figure 6.87: Expected SCI GDP(construction) (strategy 1)

Figure 6.88: Expected SCI GDP(construction) (strategy 2)

Figure 6.89: Expected SCI GDP(construction) (strategy 3)

Figure 6.90: Expected SCI GDP(construction) (strategy 4)

Figure 6.91: Comparison of the expected SCI GDPţconstruction) conducting four different strategies

Figure 6.92: Expected SCI GDPţconstruction) (strategy number 5)

Figure 6.93: Comparison of the expected results of the five strategies

Figure 6.94: Factors' importance for classification of consultants

Figure 6.95: Factors' importance for classification of contractors

Figure 6.96: Best type of contracts regarding the time of completion

Figure 6.97: Best type of contracts regarding total cost of construction

Figure 6.98: Best type of contracts regarding the quality of construction

Figure 6.99: The best model to regulate the sector

List of Tabels

Table 2.1: Share of Cl in UK GDP (ONS series KKI3, KKP5, KL9)

Table 2.2: Turkey Construction sector's contribution to the economy

Table 2.3: Relevant elements for defining competitiveness (Ericsson et al., 2005)

Table 2.4: Advantages and disadvantages of globalisation to Cl in DCs

Table 3.1 : Sectors of Sudan economy (Central Bank of Sudan)

Table 3.2: Previous and current engineering entities

Table 3.3: GDP growth (2001-2014) (CBOS, 2014)

Table 3.4: Rate of inflation (2000-2014)

Table 3.5: Rate of exchange during the years (2007-2014)

Table 4.1 scale used to weight factors affecting Cl in Sudan

Table 5.1: Factors affecting Cl in Sudan as summarised in a form for stakeholders

to rank based on given points key

Table 5.2: Relative importance of each alternative

Table 5.3: Evolution cycle or iterations by evaluating fitness using RMS error in the

random search approach

Table 5.4: Evolution cycle or iterations by evaluating fitness using RMS error in the

systematic search approach

Table 5.5: Comparison of the random and systematic search procedure

Table 6.1: statistical results of the questionnaire

Table 6.2: Source of variation in responds of experts

Table 6.3: The effects of factors and groups

Table 6.4: Correlations

Table 6.5: Analysis of C0V and Kendall coefficient for five groups

Table 6.6: factors relative dynamic weights

Table 6.7: Equations derived from GAs

Table 6.8: Comparison of equations

Table 6.9: Dynamic loops of factors

Table 6.10: Factors Dynamic weights compared with dynamic loops strings

Table 6.11: SCI Shares of GDP

Table 6.12: dynamic weight of six factors contributes directly to SCI GDPţconstruction)

Table 6.13: Expected share of SCI on GDP(construction)due to a maximum movement

of factors

Table 6.14: expected GDPţconstruction) for each strategy

Table 6.15: expected GDPţconstruction) for strategy number

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

Abbildung in dieser leseprobe nicht enthalten

ABSTRACT

The construction industry in developing countries plays a pivotal role in their national economies and infrastructure development. The relationship between construction and total output of the economy has been investigated in many countries. Worldwide and across continents, the contribution of the construction industry to economic growth and long-term national development is widely acknowledged.

This study is aimed at modelling the Sudanese Construction Industry (SCI) by

conducting a comprehensive review and analysis of factors affecting the construction industry in Sudan. The scope of the research is multidisciplinary, addressing different areas of concern, in order to define how SCI participates in the socio-economic development in Sudan. Also, this study examines the relationship between SCI and the whole economy focusing on its contribution to the Sudanese GDP. In addition, the study also is aimed at developing suitable System Dynamics Models (SDMs) in order to better understand the behaviour of this industry. Additional scenarios obtained from neighbouring countries are simulated to examine the expected share of SCI in GDP assuming certain policies are implemented. Along with these objectives, the study aims at measuring the relative importance of the factors influencing the development of the construction industry in Sudan.

Multiple research methods are employed including a questionnaire survey and interviews. The questionnaire survey is formulated for the purpose of collecting primary data about the factors influencing the SCI and the challenges facing the construction industry. Sixteen relevant factors are identified that influence the SCI. These factors are evaluated and ranked according to their interrelationships and relative importance to the development of SCI. The questionnaire targeted fifty experienced members of construction stakeholder organisations.

A pairwise comparison method is used to determine dynamic weights and the relative importance of each criterion. The relationships between different factors and dynamic weights are assessed by using the VENSIM® program to formulate a system dynamic model for SCI. The research employed the Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique to develop the best-fit models representing the relationships between the significant factors.

Two sets of results are obtained, random and systematic; the systematic results were used to develop several different SDMs. The validity and sensitivity of these models are also evaluated. The fourth model was connected with the SCI's portion of GDP through a dynamic molecule to measure the output of the construction industry. The main outcome of the fourth model is the estimation of a 6.2% share Sudan GDP for the SCI. Four strategies were tested simultaneously based on observations of neighbouring countries and how they embarked upon developing and improving their construction industries.

The findings also revealed that the "regulation of the sector" factor is the top ranked factor. Therefore, the industry is in desperate need of the establishment and/or empowerment of appropriate institutions necessary to facilitate the development of a modern and sophisticated construction industry. The first step in the ladder of development is the formulation of a central executive agency (Sudanese Construction Industry Development Board) to take responsibility for administrating Construction Industry Development (CID) and to act as a core coordinator between different construction stakeholders and professional bodies. Such a body would help to define a future vision for the SCI, facilitate development of specific strategies in accordance with that vision, an periodically assess the progress made in the implementation of CID plans. The same body will also be responsible for the formulation and application of strategies for educational, training, research and development programs.

Finally, whatever policies, regulations, and procedures are designed to attain a

sustainable SCI, it is important to explicitly establish a mechanism against which the performance is measured including critical success factors and key performance indicators (KPIs).

المستخلص

التشیید وارتباطھا ومساھمتھا في الناتج الإجمالي القومي وارتباطھا بالاقتصاد الكلي في كثیر من بلدان العالم. ومعلوم من

التجارب العالمیة ارتباط ومساھمة صناعة التشیید بالنمو الاقتصادي والتنمیة الوطنیة الطویلة الأجل. ھدفت ھذه الدراسة إلى نمذجة صناعة التشیید بالسودان، عن طریق إجراء استعراض وتحلیل شاملَ ْین للعوامل المؤثرة في

صناعة البناء والتشیید في السودان، وشمل نطاق البحث مجالات متعددة التخصصات بمختلف الاھتمامات؛ وذلك للتأكد من

مساھمة صناعة التشیید في التنمیة الاجتماعیة والاقتصادیة في السودان. ھدفت الدراسة إلى تطویر نماذج نظام دینامیكیة لفھم

سلوك ھذه الصناعة، وقد تمت محاكاة سیناریوھات أخرى تم الحصول علیھا من البلدان المجاورة للتحقق من النسبة المتوقعة

من مساھمة القطاع في الناتج الإجمالي المحلي، وذلك في حالة تنفیذ سیاسات معینة تستھدف تطویر القطاع. وإلى جانب ھذه

الأھداف، ھدفت الدراسة إلى قیاس الأھمیة النسبیة للعوامل المؤثرة في تطویر صناعة البناء والتشیید. تم استخدام طرق بحث متعددة من خلال استخدام المقابلات والاستطلاعات مع ذوي الشأن. وقد تم إعداد استمارة الاستبیان

لغرض جمع البیانات الأولیة عن العوامل المؤثرة على صناعة التشیید والتحدیات التي تواجھھا. ومن خلال البحث في

الدراسات السابقة تم تحدید ستة عشر من العوامل ذات الصلة للتأثیر على صناعة التشیید. تم تقییم ھذه العوامل وتصنیفھا وفقاً

لعلاقاتھا المتبادلة وأھمیتھا النسبیة لتطویر صناعة التشیید؛ علماً بأن الاستبیان استھدف خمسین من ذوي الخبرة من أصحاب

المصلحة المختلفة في صناعة التشیید شمل مجالات أصحاب القرار من الحكومیین الحالیین والسابقین والاستشاریین والمقاولین

والأكادیمیین.

تم استخدام طریقة المقارنة بیرویز ) (Pairwiseلتحدید الأوزان الدینامیكیة والأھمیة النسبیة المعیاریة لكل عامل من العوامل الستة عشر.

تم استخدام برنامج حاسوب یُدعى فینسیم )® (VENSIMلتقییم العلاقات بین العوامل والأوزان الدینامیكیة لصیاغة نموذج

نظام دینامیكي ) .(SDMاستخدم البحث تقنیة الخوارزمیة الجینیة ) (GAلتطویر أفضل النماذج التي تمثل العلاقات بین

العوامل المھمة، حیث تم من خلالھا الحصول على مجموعتین من النتائج )عشوائیة ومنھجیة(، وتم استخدام النتائج المنھجیة

لتطویر عدد نماذج أنظمة دینامیكیة. كما تم تقییم صحة وحساسیة ھذه النماذج، ومن ثم تم ربط النموذج الرابع مع مساھمة

صناعة التشیید في الناتج الإجمالي المحلي، وذلك من خلال تعدیل في برنامج الحاسوب فینسیم، الذي بھ خاصیة لمعرفة

مساھمة القطاع إذا ارتبط بنموذج النظام الدینامیكي الممثل للصناعة، وذلك لقیاس مساھمة صناعة البناء والتشیید في الناتج

الإجمالي المحلي. وقد تم اختبار أربع إستراتیجیات اقترحت في دراسات بالدول المجاورة لتطویر صناعة التشیید، وتم قیاس

مساھمة الصناعة في الناتج الإجمالي المحلي، ولم ِ تف ھذه المساھمة بالأرقام التي تم التطلع الیھا. وتم اختبار إستراتیجیة خامسة

تقوم على اتخاذ سیاسات عملیة وواقعیة یمكن تنفیذھا بواسطة متخذي القرار حول عوامل محددة من العوامل الموثرة في صناعة التشیید وكانت النتیجة من خلال المحاكاة أن توقع نموذج النظام الدینامیكي أن ترتفع مسھامة القطاع في الناتج الإجمالي المحلي من %4إلى . %6.2 وكشفت النتائج أیضاً أن عامل )تنظیم القطاع( ھو العامل الأعلى مرتبة. ولذلك، فإن الصناعة في حاجة ماسة لإنشاء وزارة اتحادیة أو مجلس أعلى للتطویر لیسھل عملیة تطویر صناعة التشیید الحدیثة

وتتمثل الخطوة الأولى في سلم تطویر صناعة التشیید في تشكیل ھیئة تنفیذیة مركزیة )وزارة اتحادیة أو مجلس تطویر صناعة التشیید في السودان( تتولى مسؤولیة تطویر الصناعة. والعمل كمنسق أساسي بین مختلف أصحاب المصلحة في مجال التشیید

والھیئات المھنیة. وستساعد مثل ھذه الھیئة على تحدید رؤیة مستقبلیة لصناعة التشیید بالسودان وذلك وفق إستراتیجیات محددة وفقاً لتلك الرؤیة. ویتم مراقبة تطور الصناعة دوریاً من خلال التأكد من التقدم ُ الم َ حرز في تنفیذ خطط تطویر الصناعة. كما

ستكون الوزارة أو المجلس مسؤولاً عن تشكیل وتطبیق إستراتیجیات للبرامج التعلیمیة والتدریبیة والبحثیة والتطویریة.

مھما كانت السیاسات واللوائح والإجراءات المصممة لتحقیق مؤشر تطویر مستمر ومستدام لصناعة التشیید، فمن المھم إنشاء

آلیة یتم بھا قیاس الأداء بما في ذلك عوامل النجاح الحاسمة ومؤشرات الأداء الرئیسیة ).(KPI

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION

1.1 General

Construction is vital in the development of nations. From the beginning of the time, man has continued to develop his home from very materials surrounding him. Construction has developed over time until all nations of the world have started to consider construction as an industry that can enhance the development of their economy if tackled properly. It is now considered as one of the issues assumed to be integral to the sustainable development of countries to enhance the national economy.

The construction industry (Cl) is one of the most complicated sectors in all countries; each country has different approaches to tackle issues within this sector. In developed countries, the organization of the construction industry has a long history, its development, processes, systems and procedures have influenced other countries in the developing world. The Cl is now considered as a cornerstone in the development of a national economy, where its contribution to economic growth and long-term national development is widely acknowledged in developed countries. Ambiguities still exist in developing countries within the concepts of the Cl, where a roadmap to plan for longer-term is required (Flanagan 2013). For example, Ofori describes the industry in his research (Ofori 2015) as not well understood, he Saied There is no common definition, and there are even arguments about whether it is an industry or a sector that comprises many industries.

The contribution of the construction industry to economic growth and long-term national development is widely acknowledged, highlighting its importance, particularly to developing countries. For the benefit of these countries, it is important to investigate the nature, essential characteristics, and requirements of the construction industry and to use them to develop programs for its improvement. There are many challenges confronting the developing countries and there are insufficient studies dealing with these challenges to improve the construction industries.

For the purposes of this study, developing countries were defined as those countries outside Europe with a per capita gross national product (GNP) of less than 7000 USD. Although the World Bank use it, applying the GNP as a measure of development is under severe criticism. Not only is it based on consumption (and therefore not conducive to sustainability), it also disallows more qualitative and accurate measures of development and sustainability. These countries are also generically referred to as "The-South", even though many falls in the northern hemisphere. The term "The-North" is used for Europe, North America and high-income countries in Asia and Oceania. Despite its geographical inaccuracy, the north-south terminology is increasingly preferred in development circles, as the United Nation's (UN) terminology implies that countries in Europe, north America and Australasia are superior "developed" to other "developing "or" less developed" countries.

Economies of many developing countries are presently challenged by severe difficulties due to a mix of lower artefact costs, higher energy prices, falling exchange rates, and rising inflation, as observed by many researchers. The most concerned observation quoted from (Ofori 2000), is: "At the same time, the countries face immense social problems (including a rising urban population and unemployment) which are putting pressure on the nation's resources and capabilities" (pp 7~13). Hence, low construction output will adversely influence the expansion of the economy. Construction has always experienced an extended amount of gestation; the industry responds slowly to any stimulants/changes. Thus, an extended amount of low demand will considerably impair the power of the industry to satisfy a rise in demand. This hampers the expansion of the economy over the short-term, and national development over a longer time horizon. The significant factors affecting partnering of the SCI in line with the hierarchy of responses are trust, economic incentives, contracts and selecting operating partners (El et al. 2013). Sudan, as one of the least developing countries, faces the same problems, although, in the past, it had a system to control and improve the CL This system has collapsed due to many reasons, the first being the decentralization of governments in Sudan, with central government dispersing the work to different bodies as illustrated in Figure 1.1

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Elkhalifa (2013) stated other factors that have affected the performance of the Sudanese Construction Industry (SCI) and the Sudanese Building Materials Industry (SBMI) in terms of importance and magnitude. Thus, the development of Cl and building materials industry and related aspects have been influenced by these factors.

The economic performance is essentially affected by the political regime in power. The government as the main consumer could not facilitate the Cl role within the socio-economic development. Hence, the government outlaid the bottom in the event of developing the sector through strategic designing and policy formulation. Macroeconomic policies that completely stimulate the demand for construction may be adopted. Non-inclusion of the development sector in strategic plans implies that the government doesn't clearly acknowledge the importance and potential of the world within the socio-economic development.

The efficiency of the construction industry performance and productivity, are major factors to improve the SCI. This is the key for government to demonstrate their commitment to promoting a good development mechanism in practice, as it is necessary to evaluate the existing performance in the construction industry (Bannaga, 2010).

1.2 Theoretical Background

Dalton (1974) noted that a building industry engaged on public works was one of the leading sectors of Russia's development effort in the early 18th Century. Flores (1971) observed that Mexico created a construction industry by building irrigation dams and roads since 1925, which supported agricultural and industrial expansion. This is clarified by; "The construction of irrigation works, and highways is a strategic measure that induces the establishment of a multitude of new productive activities" (p 150).

Writers advocating growth using an equity approach emphasize the advantages of self- help and rural development projects, using off-season labour or utilizing the enthusiasm and community spirit of the rural population. Even if construction is not considered a vanguard of the development process, some writers advise that its growth is indispensable.

Lewis (1955) stated that: "More than half of capital formation consists of work in building and construction. Hence the expansion of capital is a function of the rate at which the building and construction industry can be expanded. The question of how rapidly capital formation can be accelerated resolves itself first into the question of how rapidly the building industry can be expanded"(pp 9 ~ 208).

Leonard Brunotte-(1987) and Turin (1973), warned that construction can grow faster than GDP, and probably it should. If it fails to do so construction capacity may become a serious constraint to a sustained capital investment program.

This research is trying to concentrate on these factors mentioned in the theoretical background supported by a questionnaire carried out within the related bodies to reach a modelling system suitable for Sudan. Thus, the aims, objectives, and research questions are made to guide the research for developing the model to enhance the processes of construction industries in Sudan, taking into consideration the environment and political situation.

1.3 Research aim

The primary aim of this research is to develop a dynamic system approach to improve the understanding of the complexity of the Sudan construction industry and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders to enhance the output of the industry.

1.4 Research Objectives

The objectives can thus be stated as follows:

1) To identify and evaluate the critical factors which influence the output of the construction industry in Sudan.
2) To assess the dynamic interrelationships between these factors and their degree of influence on SCI.
3) To develop systems dynamics models that simulate these interrelationships to map the behaviour of the SCI.
4) To validate the SDMs using Genetic Algorithms (Gas) and establish the link between these factors and the share of SCI on Sudan GDP.
5) To utilize these SDMs to facilitate the formulation of strategies and policies to improve the construction industry.

1.5 Research Questions

To guide the research, the following questions were developed:

-How can the SCI be developed to enhance the growth of the National economy of the country?
-How can the complex behaviour of the SCI be understood?
-How can the factors influencing the SCI be mapped and modeled?
-What is the importance of the SCI and its contribution to the national economy?

1.6 Research Frameworks

There are many different models and frameworks for the process of the social research. The author adopted Wiersma's framework (2000) shown below in Figure 1.2. This research framework is not limited to a certain type of research and can be applied to any research development. This framework shows the stages of a general research study, which include the activities in developing a research study.

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Figure 1.2: The research framework with all the activities in conducting a research including overlaps

1.7 Structure of the Thesis

This thesis structured into seven chapters, as follows:

Chapter one: provides background, aims, objectives, research question, research

framework and the structure of the thesis.

Chapter two: defines the Construction Industry in Sudan, the building materials used, the roles and impact of oil production, the evidence of international best practices including international Cl modelling experiences, and sustainability in construction development. This chapter also identifies and reviews the factors affecting the Cl in Sudan.

Chapter three-, addresses and discusses in detail the SCI in terms of economic development in single and multi-fragmented systems, the challenges facing the construction industry, structure of the Sudanese economy, and its contribution to the economy.

Chapter four: provides a research methodology. Several data collection methods were reviewed and justifications for the adopted methods were provided. SDM building steps undertaken were generally mentioned.

Chapter five: this chapter breaks down the SD model used, starting from data collection and statistical analysis tools. Selection and filtering of factors affecting Cl in Sudan were justified. A preliminary model sketching and use of the SD tool i.e. Vensim®, were explained. The chapter discusses the mathematical model in terms of the GAs used, verification of the model's equation, and the model validation.

Chapter six: Results and Discussion, this chapter will discuss the Development and validation of the system dynamics Model Correctness and Validation as well as sensitivity and Development of the model. Optimization of the model fit the GDP and other changes are justified in order to enable the development of the SCI. The interviews and ministry of finance report were discussed. The suggested policies were discussed and tested with the focused group in order to enhance the future of Cl in Sudan.

Chapter seven: this final chapter provides a summary and the achievements of the research, its limitations and value as well as its contribution to knowledge. Recommendations from the research, and for further studies are made.

CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

This research aims to ascertain how national governments can improve their Cl to sustain economic growth. The literature review draws upon special focus on the significance of the construction sector, materials manufactured in different countries, and how Sudan will use a model that can be reasonable in its existing situation while looking into practices in the developing countries, especially Asian and African countries. It discusses the principles of attaining sustainability in Cl, and its impacts on the national economic growth.

This chapter discusses the construction industry and its importance to the economy of the country, and how different domestic and international systems work to develop the construction sector. First, how the sector is developed in Sudan and what are the challenges confronted by SCI. It focuses on the regional and international modelling that has been successful in other countries. Sudan is considered one of the largest market in the Middle East in the field of construction due to the availability of feasible and large projects that can be implemented.

2.2 Construction Industry (Cl)

The construction industry is an important sector that contributes to the economic growth of a nation and it has a great impact on materials manufacturing. It is an investment-led sector, where governments all over the world show high interest in developing the construction industry in Sudan. Government contracts with the construction industry help to develop infrastructure for major projects related to health facilities, transportation, dams, as well as other important facilities for educational previews and others.

According to (Ofori, 2012), the performance of the construction industry in developing countries is considered to be of a very low standard. The projects in these countries are characterized by their shortfall short of targets set by government; Because of this, the budgets are not fulfilled successfully and so there is a time-lag and quality specifications could be affected. The constructed items are unsatisfactory in terms of their maintainability and durability. Also, the cost benefit of the projects is not fulfilled as items involving huge investments are expected to last for a longer period than what actually occurs. This has significant economic and social consequences. Developing countries (DCs) in general are characterized by an inexorable economic decline, low Gross National Product (GNP) per capita, low life expectancy, low levels of average literacy, low amounts of energy consumption, low levels of accumulated capital, low quality of factors of production, especially labour, high rates of inflation, severe balance of payments problems, high rates of population growth, vast regional inequalities in development, and inability to meet basic human needs (Elkhalifa and Shaddad, 2011). The population of most DCs grows faster than GDP, resulting in a fall of per capita GDP. Al-Khalifa (2013) emphasised that such conditions do not only create poor living conditions but may also partially account for low productivity and inability to do strenuous work. DCs are faced with a general situation of socio-economic stress, chronic resource shortages, institutional weaknesses, and a general inability to deal with key issues in addition to constraints on misallocation of capital and foreign exchange.

The Cl is very important for the development of countries. Fixed investments in the field of Cl usually enhance the socio-economic way of life, as well as the business in plant and machinery of all industries, such as building materials, furniture, and others.

In Sudan, the Cl has been a priority in developing the country's infrastructure. In the 20th century, few projects were developed to enhance the economic growth; dams, hospitals, and schools were built. Thus, construction investment can be an important public policy tool that can be used by central and local governments to accelerate development. The investment in the Cl is not a consumer's expenditure on services but influences money injection into the economy (Gruenberg, 2000).

2.3 The construction and Building Materials Industry and The Role of Oil Production

The increasing level of construction output is acknowledged, is due initially to oil production and export as the government started to build infrastructure for the oil industry. By 1998, one year before the massive production of oil, the construction output grew by 161.4%, contributing to the total output of the economy by 4.6% (Elkhalifa, 2013). As the infrastructure projects for oil production were accomplished, the construction share decreased from 4.6% in 1998 to 2.8% in 1999. From 2000 onwards, the amount spent on construction has continued to increase consistently because of the entry of foreign companies and investors. With the inflow of foreign direct investments and oil revenues, the economy of Sudan has witnessed a boom in real estate development in major cities, coupled with road construction, the development in telecommunications and electrical power supply, and investment in food processing industries (Abbadi and Ahmed, 2006). Obviously, the oil production has contributed to maintaining construction activity in an increasing pattern since 1998 with minimal fluctuations. Prior to the production of oil, the output of the construction sector was extremely volatile. The construction sector, following massive oil production, has experienced less volatile fluctuations in its gross output and contribution to GDP in comparison to the periods before oil production started. The increasing demand for construction associated with oil production is accompanied by an increasing demand for building materials and components. The incremental demand for materials stimulate local production of several Building Materials (BMs). According to USGS (2003), the production of some BMs started after the oil production and export i.e. gypsum (1997); marble (2001); and steel (2001) and continued to increase in production and export.

2.4 Construction Industry Development

Construction Industry Development is a deliberate and managed the process to improve the capacity and effectiveness of the Cl to meet the national economic demand for building and civil engineering products, and to support sustained national economic and social development objectives. The development of the construction and contracting sector has been confronted with multiple challenges that need to be anticipated and effectively addressed through adequate preparation. These may include plans implementation, research studies and specialized work plans directed towards identifying strong and weak points, opportunities to be seized and those that pose a heightened risk within the performance of the sector and supporting its human resources. Such objectives make it incumbent upon the state and those holding positions of responsibility within the industry to achieve higher standards of excellence to combat any performance shortcomings and to ensure quality control and transparency within the work environment.

2.5 Constraints of developing Construction Industry

Construction industry performance faces by many challenges that reduce the efficiency of the construction policies in developing countries. Thus, the Cl is faced with challenges that must be solved to maintain the optimum requirements for the construction industries to collaborate with the other sectors in the process of development and the growth of GDP. The constraints may be summarized as follows:

-The economic weaknesses: most of the least developing countries, of which Sudan is an example, are characterized by the weaknesses of the economy because of lack of resources or inadequate use of them. The industry failed to receive any stimulation to meet social needs and to develop market forces to support the economy.
-The gap between government understanding and industry requirements: many governments in DCs do not recognize the importance and needs of the Cl. Hence, they do not formulate and implement programmes for upgrading the Cl.
-Poor performance: the Cl systems in most developing countries are not adequate to develop the industry.

Mbande (2010) suggests a correlation between increases in community protests due to the lack of service delivery in South Africa and the acute shortage of skills in the construction sector. The report by the CIDB (2004) suggests that the skills supplied to the market through the Further Education and Training (FET) System were in many cases not appropriate to the needs of the Cl, resulting in a skills gap and a decline in the capacity of the professional sector. Van Wyk (2003) opines that the high number of industry participants who have no education, let alone a degree, is a serious impediment to the development of the Cl.

In some countries these challenges resulted in the establishment of central agencies to coordinate the activities of all construction works, something that had been practised in Sudan in the twentieth century and earlier. For an economy to progress in any country, two criteria need to be satisfied two criteria: a rapid pace of economic development, and a government policy favouring economic liberalisation and the adoption of a free market system (Arnold and Quelch, 1998).

2.6 Review of Studies in Construction Sector

Abu Zeid et al. (1428 FI/2008) reviewed a feasibility study of public construction projects in Arab countries, identifying different investment alternatives. The study examined the feasibility system procedures used in some Arab States and found that there was a lack of significant use of feasibility studies in the construction sector. In general, there are no standards or standard procedures for the implementation of the feasibility systems for public sector projects in the Arab States because of the limited sources of data, and inaccurate environmental, economic, and social information. The study concluded that a lack of significant use of feasibility studies in the construction sector, and a unified system for a preliminary studying of the construction of the project is needed.

Adas (1420 FI/2000) concentrated on an organizational approach to evaluating the effectiveness of regulation in buildings and construction institutions, and the methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of regulation in institutions in the construction process and construction sector. The study analyses the important organizational qualities of those institutions, by assessing the effectiveness of the organization according to the competitive values or criteria approach based on the international theoretical approaches used to simulate the effectiveness of the organization. The study relied on the methodology for collecting and classifying most of the well-known organizational effectiveness standards in four ideal models. Each model contains different criteria that organizations try to follow during the different life-cycle stages of an enterprise, and use those criteria to define four sets of variables for evaluation and effectiveness of regulation in building and construction institutions:

1) the organizational structure of the enterprise,
2) operations for the personnel of the enterprise,
3) organizational flexibility, and
4) strategic means to achieve the objectives, regulations and instructions used in the organization.

The study concluded that there are different variations of these variables, among which there are organizational forms of exemplary effectiveness that must be used in the construction sector to improve performance efficiency. The institutions must understand the ideal organizational shape that the organization is trying to follow, and then compare the level of current variables, through the ideal organizational form, to get a good assessment of the level of organizational effectiveness in the institution of concern.

Khalfan et al. (1421 E/2001) showed that the current system of competition and government procurement suffers from multiple problems, which caused some inequality in the construction of public projects. The need for the competition system must be based on innovative, modern, and more effective initiatives than the current traditional method, the application of which leads to the faltering of sector projects. The study offered successful examples of the UK's the procurement system for the United Kingdom's construction sector, the role played by suppliers and manufacturers of products to collaborate and make it succeed. This was accomplished by analysing two typical cases at the Ford Research and Innovation Centre. The study also highlighted the importance of some factors in the integration of Parties at the beginning of a project. It stated that, through coordination among these parties, there is considerable potential for using the expertise and knowledge of suppliers and manufacturers to achieve effective planning, implementation, and delivery of the entire project.

Ibn Hamid (1428 H/2008) sought to identify the current situation and future expectations of the ways of supervising, organizing, and managing government projects by identifying central issues in overseeing implementation. Then crystallized and formulated in a resolution to identify the views of the main parties associated with the construction and construction process (government agencies, companies contracting institutions, engineering consultancy offices, government owners, contractors, and consultants)■The study concluded that there are consensus and differences in the views of the three main stakeholders, which it entirely reflected a reality that was very deficient and it has become clear that there is a need to develop management and supervision of the sector, to become more effective in the management and execution of construction contracts.

Kymmell (2008) reported the application of a building information model (BIM), three-dimensional design and management of construction projects. He recommended the use of modern techniques and software in the management and planning of construction and construction projects. The model is one of the most common techniques, linking the information of engineering and professional offices and contractors to the industry and construction suppliers for all construction activities. This was applied to coordinate among themselves and select construction materials and specifications and to rationalise energy and non-waste. One of the most notable features of the model is that it makes the design process more transparent, because it is a three-dimensional model that shows what has been achieved and what has been overlooked in project design and error detection. It keeps the designer and manufacturer on one track, so that design requirements are integrated with manufacturing data, and link planning activities with design and construction as a single integrated system, and within a short and cost-saving time period.

Alhamdan (1431 E/2011) reported the importance of developing local management methods as an entry point for the operationalisation of an urban strategy. This way referred to as the relationship between the problems of the construction sector, construction process and some physical policies relating to construction requirements, town planning, horizontal expansion, increases in altitude and white land. The application of some of these policies can lead to delayed decision-making and the late issuance of permits. The absence of an active role for local governance, thus leading to the swelling of cities, inability to meet their infrastructural needs, and weakening of the role of small and medium cities as a partner in the operation of the National Urban strategy. It represents the national level of spatial development planning, which aims to create comprehensive and balanced urban development, as well as mechanisms to achieve its objectives and translate them into realistic programmes and projects. The study showed that the role of local administrations in adopting the operational policies of the national urban strategy lacks much effectiveness, and that there was a lack of managerial expertise and competencies, because of the absence of advanced local management tools, methods, and approaches. Through that field study, the experiences of the Arab and global-local administration (Egypt and France) were evaluated to draw the most relevant lessons for application of a proper system. The study confirmed the weak and inefficient local administrative base, the low level of human capacity and the material potential of municipalities, as well as the underutilisation of an E-government concept and information system applications.

2.7 Systems in Different Countries

A group of European Union (EU) countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Britain, and Germany, as well as other countries such as the United States of America, Korea, Turkey, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan, have largely succeeded in solving the problems of the sector. The criteria for the selection of some of those states were based on their predecessors and leadership in addressing the problems of the construction and construction sector, and their history of successful experiments, while others were chosen because of similarities to the conditions of SCI. Therefore, the experience of the United Kingdom, Malaysia, and Turkey were selected for this research.

2.7.1 Experience of the United Kingdom

The UK's construction sector accounts for 6.5% of its GDP as shown in Figure 2.1 and Table 2.1 below and employs more than 3 million workers in about 300,000 enterprises. To solve the problems of the sector, a Construction Industry Board (CIB), which oversees and regulates the sector, was established. The Board is required to produce, review, and publish performance indicators on a regular basis, representing all professionals, research institutions, and private business alliances in the CL The CIB represents a sector with more than 500,000 professionals, 2,500 consulting construction companies and 30 professional bodies specializing in construction (Langston and Min, 2010) (Pettinger and Tejvan, 2012).

Table 2.1: Share of Cl in UK GDP (ONS series KKI3, KKP5, KL9)

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Figure 2.1 : Share of Cl in UK GDP (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)

The Green Building Board checks compliance with the restrictions on building specifications in accordance with green building regulations. Many institutes supervise the construction professions such as The Royal Institute of British Architects, the Chartered Institute of Building and Engineering services for buildings, the Institute of Civil Engineers, and the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (Maer, 2012). On the other hand, the board produces price indices for the construction sector and estimates the growth rates of its sub-sectors. The fluctuation and stagnation in the UK's construction sector are due to a range of reasons, the most important of which are:

- Weak demand for construction due to stagnation of the UK economy and the continued reduction of the budget.
- Difficulty in obtaining finance, insurance, and bank reservation after the experience of bad American loans.
- Poor confidence in future directions of the economy, which has called for the postponement of many investment projects.
- High energy prices that led to excessive cost and little profit (Francis, 2012).

The UK Government has therefore benefited from these indicators to pay attention to the construction sector in its plan for the future and has approved its construction sector strategy since mid-2011. The UK Government believes that it does not get the full value and yield of its spending on public enterprises and there is a lot of waste, extravagance and improper preparation in the construction sector. This has led the state to adopt a strategy aimed at changing the way in which government agencies work with the construction industry so that they obtain good offers to implement public projects in a more effective manner. The strategy seeks to reduce project costs by 20%, which is the rate of wastage resulting from misuse of public funds. To achieve this strategy, a Government Building and Construction Management Board was suggested, headed by a chief construction adviser, to be established as an alternative to the CIB, with a focus on cost­cutting and quality upgrading in the implementation of infrastructure projects (CIB, 2012). These efforts have had a successful impact on the development of the sector, with the British Government Council issuing its first year of strategy for the development of the "one year on"

sector, in which the progress of its five-year strategy was made clear from 2011. The report indicated that in the first year £ 279 million had been provided through the implementation of the Building Information System (BIM), increased transparency, disclosure and news dissemination, and the establishment of a project to spend without delay (UK Cabinet Office, 2012). In human resources, the United Kingdom plans to reduce population growth resulting from an increase in foreign employment, with a population of over 70 million in 2028. There is a heated debate among officials about the reduction of the number of foreign workers in the state. The British Minister of Immigration sees an imbalance in the external migration balance, with several British migrants in Europe less than the number of foreigners migrating to Britain (Office for National Statistics, 2012) (Paton, 2007). This imbalance is one of the problems in the construction sector and is debated in the British Parliament to design policies to curb and codify foreign labour.

Technically, to withstand pressure from the EU, the UK has developed sustainability strategies in the construction sector to reduce thermal emissions, especially from government buildings, according to an ambitious plan to reach zero C02 emissions by the end of 2018 (U.K. Cabinet Office, 2011). Design and engineering methods for buildings have been developed, consistent with the capacity of the contracting sector to adopt modern building systems. Studies carried out over the past 50 years have shown that only the contracting sector has not developed technically, its productivity has decreased, and its cost increased. This is since most occupations in the construction sector, individually and separately, have been employed, which has called for the British government to impose implementation of the construction information management programme in all state projects costing more than £ 5 million (UK government Report, 2011) (Hunt, 2003).

From the above, the benefits of the British experience can be used in the following ways:

- A unified council that oversees and regulates the construction sector, such as the UK construction industry board (CIB).
- Produce indicators of performance, prices and growth in the construction and construction sector.
- Implementation of a building information system, the most important of which are savings, efficiency, and transparency.
- The need to take care of environmental improvement factors through the establishment of green buildings and the reduction of thermal and carbon emissions and the striking of a balance between the size and activities of the national and foreign workers working in construction sectors.
- Developing a long-term strategy for the development of the construction sector.
- Establishment of various vocational institutes that qualify professionals to work in the various activities of the construction sector.

2.7.2 Experience of Malaysia

The Malaysian state has paid great attention to the construction sector, under the jurisdiction of a special ministry (the Ministry of Works), through the Development Council Cl Development Board Malaysia (CIDB). Its vision stems from the fact that it is a strategically important board as a regulator and servant of the Cl in Malaysia. Its strong vision is that Malaysia's Cl in 2015 ranks highly amongst its counterparts in the world. The industry improvement is based on three things: paving the role for sector operators to enter modern technologies, using development programs to improve the quality of construction and competitiveness, and encouraging contractors to enter the world market. A group of federations in the sector, such as the Federation of the two main construction institutions in Malaysia, was founded in 1954, i.e. Master Builder, the union of real estate and housing developers Riredha (founded in 1970) and The Ministry of Works Malaysia 2012. In 2011, there were about 50 Malaysian official companies registered on the Malaysia stock Exchange in Kuala Lumpur. Along with engineering and technical offices and construction materials manufacturers, it helps to drive the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has succeeded in encouraging medium-sized and small companies, where they have become predominant. In addition to encouraging the distribution of income to the population growth of the middle class.

Malaysia relies heavily on foreign employment in the construction sector, both formal and informal, as it faces the problem of the lack of involvement of national labour in the sector because of low wages, society's negative perception of those professions, and their arduous occupations (Binti Saleh (2008) and Osman (1989)). The total labour force in Malaysia in 2009 was about 12 million workers, of whom about 800,000 were employed in the construction sector, representing a ratio of 6.6% of total employment. In 2010, however, the proportion fell to 6.5%. It then returned to reach 10% for 2011 (Abdul Hamid, 2011).

There is a strong correlation between the contributions of the construction industry with the economic growth in Malaysia. Its share to GDP has been consistently on the rise since 2005 as shown in Figure 2.2. There is also a positive correlation between the growth in GDP and the growth in the construction industry. There is a direct relationship between construction output and national output where the construction output grows more rapidly than national output when the economy grows and vice versa (Turin, 1969).

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Figure 2.2: Share of Cl in Malaysia GDP (Department of Statistics, Malaysia)

Malaysia has entered the field of building techniques early, as it competes with Asian neighbours, such as Taiwan and Korea, to become one of the largest industrialised countries. Malaysia has a vision that will be established in 2020. It is a clear and ambitious vision based on the restructuring of the industrial sector and investment in human resources and has therefore created many technical cities.

The Malaysian Technical Development Foundation (Malaysian Technology Development Corporation MTDC) provides capital to companies wishing to invest in Malaysia, as well as encouraging Malaysian companies specializing in modern technologies to provide financial support and make them more competitive. Although Malaysia has progressed much in the field of modern industry techniques, it focuses more on industries and techniques for producing building materials that enables it to compete in the international market and occupy its prestigious position in this field (Lim, 2002) (Flamid, 2011). There is considerable interest in information technology for project management and cost saving and energy programmes (Lim, 2002). The construction sector in Malaysia was affected by the economic crisis that shook East Asian countries and started in the United States of America. The project spending curve in Malaysia continued to climb between 2003 and 2009, except for 2007 and 2008, where project spending fell from 81.4 billion ringgits (27 billion US dollars) to 69 billion ringgits (Ong, 2011) (CIDB, 2010).

The Malaysian experience shows the following points:

- The existence of a special Ministry for Sector Affairs, the Ministry of Works, through the building and Cl Development Board.
- Reliance on formal and informal foreign employment, because Labour is not involved in construction work due to low wages, negative social perceptions, and difficulty of practising the profession.
- Focus on building materials and information industries and techniques to increase local and global competition opportunities.

2.7.3 Experience of the Republic of Turkey

The success of the Turkish experience is attributed to the regulation of the construction sector under the Ministry of Works and Housing and the Ministry of Environment and Planning, under which the General Department of Construction and Construction sector is located. Turkey has sought to motivate and support construction companies which have the following features:

- Relatively considerable number of contracting companies that compete internationally which have been established through a housing fund since 1950.
- The existence of a regulation that led the construction sector in Turkey to grow at a rate of 5% for 2011 and 2012, (IMF reports) (Housing, 2010) (Library of Congress, 2008).
- With the participation of the private sector, the state is building strategic partnerships. The most important of which is the establishment of a company headed by the Deputy Minister of Works and housing to build 500,000 housing units to meet demand. However, since that company began construction five years ago, it has not been able to provide more than 80,000 housing units.

The construction industry had a share of 6.1% to 9.2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the past ten years from 2004 to 2014 as shown in Table 2.2. The share of the overall real estate sector, including the construction activities and real estate business activities, increased from 8.3% in 1998 to 10.5% in 2014 at 1998 fixed prices. As of the end of 2014, while the construction sector-to- GDP ratio was 5.9%, the real estate, renting and business activities had a 4.6% share in GDP.

Currently, the construction industry is the sixth largest economic sector based on its value added to GDP and employs 7.4% of the total labour force. Figure 2.3 shows that the construction industry had a share of 5.8% in GDP. (Eroi et al, 2015).

Table 2.2: Turkey Construction sector's contribution to the economy

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Figure 2.3: Share of Cl in Turkish GDP (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)

Turkey suffers from problems of project delays in many sectors. One study has drawn up a range of problems that hinder the projects to be finished according to the constructed time. The study defined 34 problems to be investigated through filed study to determine the most influencing problems in construction projects. The study indicated that the main problems facing the sector were; design adjustments and construction materials after the signing of the contract; delays in the disbursement of contractors' dues and cash flows. As a typology of problems, the study found that financial matters tended to delay projects, while environmental matters were the least of the concerns. The study also found that administrative problems that delay the duration of project implementation are similar in developed and developing countries, while financial problems are predominant in developing countries (Kazaz and Ulubeyli, 2012). These are problems which the Ministry has been working to prevent and reduce. A study was made in cooperation with the Turkish Labour Authority on the labour force in Turkey (World Bank, 2006), it showed that sustainable development is the basis for creating jobs for citizens. Therefore, Turkey has adopted a structural blueprint for sustainable development and the improvement of the investment climate and investment in human resources as the foundations of sustainable development. Turkey has succeeded in implementing those policies and is now a global attraction for investments, which has achieved a large part of its sustainable development goals. This shows that increasing worker productivity helps raise the wage and living standards. Turkey's labour market regulation policy has been marred by some, complications such as the admission of foreign labour and the reduction of fees on workers ' insurance. The World Bank's policy is that there should be a balance between employment creation and the protection of workers in the sector and that there should be a link between economic activities and a labour market with educational and training curricula. The labour force in Turkey grew from 20 million workers in 1970 to approximately 43 million workers in 2004. However, employment opportunities have not increased at the same pace, which has resulted in a workforce of about 40%, which the World Bank sees as a low percentage of employment. It is classified as one of the lowest global employment ratios, with a global rate of 50% and 65% in Europe (World Bank, 2006) (Bulutay, 1995). According to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, low wages in Turkey are the cause of the sluggish growth of construction sector employment. Construction, as it grew slowly from 0.9% in 1980 to 1% in 2004 (Celasun, 2004), resulted in labour migration abroad. Compounding the situation, the number of weekly working hours in Turkey is 52 hours, while in Europe it is about 40 hours (SIS, 2004). An agreement between Turkey and Germany to allow immigration has helped the outflow of Turkish workers. Since 1961, Turkish employment in Germany, was in the form of hospitality workers. There has been a signing of similar agreements with other European countries. After 1973, with the impact of the oil boom, Turkish labour migration to the Arab Gulf states has increased, with the number of Turkish workers working outside their country of about 3.2 million workers in Arab Gulf, at the end of the year 2003 (Kirisci, 2003).

The labour force in the construction sector in Turkey registered a growth rate of about 6.6% until 2011. This was due to the international expansion of the sector by the state, economic stimulus policies, and local labour localization. The active participation of the private sector has led to the growth of the sector, the creation of jobs for citizens and the development of the industrial and vocational sectors associated with it. During 70 years of development of the construction sector in Turkey, the sector grew to become the largest employer of the workforce, with 40% of the total local labour force (BMI, 2012) (TCA, 2012). In Turkey, there is considerable interest in the global interest in construction techniques. Despite the problems of the sector, the state is encouraging growth in the sector through the development of information technologies and the introduction of computer-based management programs in its various activities (Eia et al., 2007) (Irlayici, 2007). The Housing Development Administration of Turkey, or Toki, is establishing environmentally friendly and energy-efficient construction projects.

The following points can be drawn from the Turkish experience:

- The existence of a public construction department operating under the Ministries of Works and Housing and the Ministry of Environment and Planning.
- A balance between job creation and protection of workers in the sector and linking
the labour market to educational and training curricula.
- The negative impact of low wages and a high number of working hours on the external migration of Turkish labour.
- Attention to the development of construction techniques and the manufacture of materials and introduction of computer management programmes in the activities of the sector.
- The construction sector suffers from delays in projects, owing to design adjustments and construction materials after the signing of the contract, and delays in the disbursement of contractors' dues.

2.7.4 Experience of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The third Project Management Conference of the Saudi Organization of Engineers (2011) discussed regulatory frameworks, problems of lack of coordination, and fragmentation of responsibilities in the construction sector. The reasons for this were lack of a higher body overseeing projects and developing a scientific and practical methodology for management, oversight of their implementation. This higher body to develop comprehensive plans for qualification, training and licensing of cadres involved in the management and execution of projects in all technical, legal, administrative, and financial fields.

The Conference also provoked several factors that have impeded the implementation of government projects, the most important of which are: lack of a clear and comprehensive strategic plan or vision for such project; lack of performance indicators or measurement of the quality of project implementation and follow-up, and lack of application of the concept of project governance, which imposes a certain level of transparency and accountability in project implementation. Also raised were the problems of non-care of specifications, designs and project requirements for competition, the method of outsourcing projects to sub-contractors and weak efficiency of members of the primary and final receiving committees of projects. At the conference, the Ministry of Economy and Planning participated in a study to regulate contractor, the establishment of a board and a fund for contractors, and the establishment of specialized financial institutions to promote development projects. The Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs has stressed the importance of organizing and setting up a cadre of engineers and indicated that absence of such regulation is a form of the problem associated with the engineers themselves.

The Seventh Annual Symposium, the Public Oversight Office, (2011) reported the reasons for project failures and ways to address them. It addressed a wide range of problems in the construction and construction sector in the kingdom, including: lack of reliance on feasibility studies, poor engineering designs, technical conditions and specifications, greater reliance on subcontractors, and frequent change orders during implementation phases. The latter, resulted in the extension of contract periods, increased financial and supervisory costs, as well as delays in the utilization of the project. The symposium also found that there was a discrepancy between regulatory and legal frameworks for public competition between some governmental entities. While some agencies take the lowest price in competitions and tenders without looking at the quality and speed of implementation, others award projects based on the standard of the finest bids submitted by competitors, which meets both speed and quality requirements in implementation.

The third project management Conference, Saudi Organization of Engineers (2011) has emphasized the problems of structuring the sector in the Kingdom and following up on the Committee's problem of restructuring the contracting sector to resolve the problems of contractors and the proposed criteria and mechanisms for the development of the sector. This called for the expeditious activation of the standard contract (the contract of the Villa), in accordance with the contract model endorsed by the Ministry of Finance. The distinguished Council of Ministers has issued a set of mechanisms and solutions to address the constraints of the sector and to enable it to make an active contribution to the implementation of projects development highly efficient. A ministerial committee has been set up to study the reasons for the disruption of development projects and to propose appropriate solutions.

Alqewiz (2012) concluded the experience of local banks in financing construction projects and factors associated with the working environment, such as the significant surge in the number and size of projects over the past few years, and the lack of employment, expertise and skills, higher prices for raw materials, as well as factors related to the legal environment. For example the length of time spent on litigation, challenges to the enforcement of judgments in favour of banks, and challenges to implementation of bank guarantees. Opportunities, particularly in the construction sector, which represent a good proportion of the national economy, must be taken advantage of, as the housing sector had grown slowly in comparison with total growth rates.

In the absence of bank credit growth, the government will continue to finance most basic infrastructure projects, but government funding cannot be expected to continue at the current pace in the long term. A change is needed in the government funding model and a focus on reviving bank financing, as well as the activation of secondary market activities and general capital markets.

Al-Flammad (2012) gave an example of the Saudi Kingdom system of arbitration and dispute resolution for the sector. Although it had been in force since the year 1350 FI (1932), it was still weak and inadequate to resolve contractual disputes around construction. No studies or worksheets on its problems and its usefulness were undertaken, but most of the issues are complaints and comments in newspapers and scientific forums about many cases that have been delayed and some have had to resort to international courts, particularly in contracts with foreign companies. Several decisions and regulations have been issued and the Chamber of Commerce has been introduced as a dispute resolution arbitrator in addition to the Office of the Ombudsman. The situation remained the same until the Saudi arbitration system was promulgated in 1405 FI (1981).

Many jurisdictions were engaged in resolving disputes pending the recent promulgation of the current system in the year 1433 FI (2001). Flowever, the system has not yet issued its implementation regulations. Some studies have been carried out to adopt the Unified Contract System (the Vedas), which, according to the studies, will help resolve many of the conflicts that the current system has not been able to resolve and decide upon. The issue of differences and disputes in the construction sector is an obstacle that prevents the timely completion of projects, leading to a significant loss for society and the economy. The Kingdom needs international companies for important development projects to be contracted out to foreign companies and to be governed by conventions and laws to solve and resolve disputes. These are regulations and laws that do not conform to Sharia law and regulations in the Kingdom, forcing them to enter pleadings outside the Kingdom. The private sector and individuals also suffer greatly from the lack of solutions to differences and disputes faced with contractors, employees, and suppliers. Intervention to rectify the situation in the state sector may help resolve problems of the private sector so that problems of the two sectors are linked to one another.

The Saudi International Conference on Advanced Materials Technology, King Abdelaziz City for Science, and Technology (2012) confirmed that materials and building technologies in the Kingdom has been a global competitive advantage. Sustainability is now one of the main standards in the Cl, and it is a measure required for the performance of both the building materials industry and structures. To achieve this, it is necessary to make better use of available materials to make significant achievements of "building the future" technology. The green technology that focuses on the development and application products are essential for devising sustainable solutions, but the excellence of each activity is still isolated, and the techniques of coordination and integration of activities are seldom used.

Basned (2012) research identified and assessed the risks affecting construction projects. The problems of the construction sector, particularly contracting, are caused by many factors, the most important are finance, insurance, and risk. The study concluded that construction and building projects in the Arab countries operated in a highly dynamic and risky environment which could affect the delivery of such projects within budget and time constraints. The management of those risks and the existence of safeguards are therefore of great importance in the management process; to achieve the objectives of the project in terms of time, cost, quality, safety, and environmental sustainability. Most of the published scientific research focused on some aspects of construction and risk management rather than the use of a comprehensive risk-identification methodology, approach, and analysis. This is to avoid potential risks of time, cost, quality, and environment for the construction of projects.

The study relied on a field survey of parties involved in sector projects, as it was found that delays in projects were due to excessive approval procedures and the absence of stakeholder studies. The studies of stakeholders prior to the start of the projects are most significantly affected by the construction of the projects. The Ministry of Economy and Planning and the World Bank (2013) indicated that wages for Saudis are low, especially in the private sector, the lowest among the Arab Gulf states and the European countries. The study reported that wages of Saudi Arabian males are about 20% higher than those of females and that the average monthly salary of SR 6400 is lower than the average wage the two Gulf 15200 Sr, the Europeans are 23600 Sr, while the average salaries of Saudi Arabian riyals, the Gulf of 8700 riyals, and the euro 15000 riyals. The increase in male salaries over that of females slaries may be a natural phenomenon in many countries of the world, with the United States of America increasing male salaries are 23% higher than that of females, according to the American Federation of University Women (2013).

The study criticized the incentive program; because it was not linked to the increase in salaries of private sector workers, making some beneficiaries leave work while creating a ranges programme as placebo. The study noted that the Saudis' choices in their fields of study and skill development are not in keeping with the needs of the labour market, as 35% of graduates in the Kingdom and about 80% of Saudis prefer government jobs. According to estimates, seven million Saudi people of working age are outside the labour market, which makes Saudi Arabia's unemployment rates higher than Turkey or Korea. Despite the policies of the Ministry of Labour aimed at increasing the proportion of Saudis through different policies, the unemployment rate is expected to rise in 2020 to 23% among males and 67% among females.

The Saudi Construction Industry accounts for a 5% share of the Kingdom's GDP as of 2014. Amid a consistently expansionary budget, that continued to increase expenditure despite squeezing the buffers amid falling oil prices in 2015, contracts worth us$ 79.1 billion were awarded across sectors in the construction industry in 2013. Figure 2.4 below shows the construction share of KSA GDP.

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Figure 2.4: Share of Cl in KSA GDP (central department of statistics and information, Saudi Arabia)

2.7.5 Evidence of International Best Practice

Similar challenges in other emerging countries resulted in the establishment of central agencies to coordinate the activities of all construction work. Interestingly, most of these countries are making comparatively remarkable strides towards economic development. It is widely acknowledged that a strong Cl which is properly regulated by designated bodies is a major stimulator of development in these countries. For instance, Singapore, Malaysia, and South Africa have a Cl Development Board (CIDB); Cl Council (Hong Kong), Construction Industry Development Council (India), National Construction Services and Development Board (Indonesia), and the Institute for Construction Training and Development (Sri-lanka). Typically, in Africa, countries like Zambia, Rwanda, Malawi, Kenya, and Tanzania all have central bodies that are mainly responsible for the regulation and development of their construction industries. A regulatory body for the Sudanese construction Industry (CIDB or National construction service and development) is therefore proposed to undertake these major activities:

1) Formulating regulations, standards, and codes to guide practices, procedures, and nature outputs from the Cl.
2) Registering contractors, consultants, and enterprises linked to the Cl; such as suppliers of materials and monitor and control their performance.
3) Determining the needs of the Cl, from time to time, and formulate strategies and programmers for attaining them.
4) Programming a better fitting program of choice with best contractors, consultants, and engineers for a certain project based on experience on similar project and available resources.
5) Update the construction company profiles from time to time.

To achieve the strategy of increasing GDP and systemising the construction industry works, it is very important to study the modelling for construction in different countries and how they are tackling problems of the construction industry and the solutions they have found.

2.7.5.1 The Construction Industry Development Board of Malaysia

The Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) of Malaysia was established under an Act in 1994. Its objectives are:

- Promote and stimulate the development, improvement, and expansion of the construction industry.
- Advise and make recommendations to the government on matters relating to the construction industry.
- Promote, stimulate, and undertake research into any matter relating to the construction industry.
- Promote, stimulate, and assist in the export of services relating to the construction industry.
- Provide consultancy and advisory services with respect to the construction industry.
- Promote quality assurance in the construction industry.
- Encourage the standardisation and improvement of construction techniques and materials.
- Initiate and maintain a construction industry information system
- Provide, promote, review and coordinate training programmes organised by public and private centres for skilled construction workers and construction site supervisors.
- Accredit and register contractors and to cancel, suspend or reinstate the registration of any registered contractor.
- Accredit and certify skilled construction workers and construction site supervisors.

In Malaysia, the Construction Industry Master Plan (CIMP) was developed by the Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) in collaboration with the private sector of the industry as mentioned by Ofori (2012) in his earlier studies. The master plan covers the period 2006-2015. The vision was to develop the country's construction industry into a world-class, innovative, and knowledgeable global solution provider. The strategic thrusts were:

- Integrate the construction industry value chain to enhance productivity and efficiency.
- Strengthen the image of the construction industry.
- Strive for the highest standard of quality, occupational safety and health, and environmental practices.
- Develop human resource capabilities and capacities in the construction industry.
- Innovate through research and development (R&D) and adopt new construction methods.
- Leverage on information and communication technology in the construction industry.
- Benefit from globalisation including the export of construction products and services.

2.7.5.2 The Construction Industry Development Board of South Africa

The Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) was established by the Construction Industry Development Board Act 2000. (Anon, 2007), Section 14 of the Act requires a review of the activities of CIDB at least once every five years. This report is the outcome of the first review, which took place in the period 29th January 2007 to 2nd February 2007.

In South Africa, the CIDB was established by statute in 2001 amongst others to promote the contribution of the construction industry in meeting national construction demand and in promoting industry performance, efficiency, and competitiveness. Its roles also include offering improved value to clients, providing strategic leadership to construction industry stakeholders to stimulate sustainable growth, reform and improve the construction sector as well as the determination and establishment of best practice that promotes improved industry stability, improved industry performance, efficiency, and effectiveness (Ofori, 2012).

Other African countries such as Zambia, Rwanda, Malawi, Kenya, and Tanzania all have central bodies for their construction industries backed by the state that are mainly responsible for the regulation and development of the industries (Ofori-kuragu and Ayarkwa, 2016). The key lesson to learn from the reviews on these countries' experiences, is that giving legislative backing to these efforts provides the legal mandate and authority base for the work of these bodies.

2.7.5.3 The Construction Industry Development Board of Singapore

The Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) in Singapore was formed in 1984 to spearhead the expansion and development of the construction industry (Ofori, 2012), It is arguably the most successful and most widely studied of the industrial development agencies. In 1999, the CIDB was merged with the Building Control Division of the then Public Works Department to form the Building and Construction Authority (BCA). The functions of Authority under the BCA Act which relate to industry development are:

- Promote the development, improvement, and expansion of the construction industry including the use of advanced technology in the construction industry.
- Advise and make recommendations to the government on matters affecting or connected with the construction industry.
- Raise standards and efficiency in the construction industry by encouraging the
standardisation and improvement of construction techniques and materials.
- Provide consultancy and advisory services related to the construction industry.
- Promote the advancement of skills and expertise of persons in the construction industry.
- Raise the professionalism and capabilities of firms in the construction industry
- Promote the adoption of internationally recognised quality management systems in the construction industry.
- Facilitate the supply of essential construction materials, and secure and manage land and facilities related to their import and production.
- Carry out research for the development and improvement of the construction industry.

2.7.5.4 The Construction Industry Board UK

The CIDB (2012) stated that "in the United Kingdom, the first Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) were published in 1999 in response to the Rethinking Construction report". These KPIs had three objectives, namely: to provide companies and projects with a simple method of establishing a performance measurement system; to provide organisations with a straightforward method of benchmarking their performance against others in the construction industry; and to track long term trends in performance. Specifically, the KPIs could be used to demonstrate whether the construction industry was achieving the targets set out in Rethinking Construction Report ; cost, time, and quality are the three basic and most important performance indicators in construction projects followed by others such as safety, functionality, and satisfaction (Elhag et al., 2013).

There are examples of "advisory" organisations concerned with construction industry development which may be government departments or private organisations. They undertake studies, prepare, and disseminate reports; may prepare programmes and policies; and advise government directly. These include the Construction Industry Board (UK), and units in the ministries responsible for construction in many countries.

Ofori (2012) stated that the agency should be in close contact with the industry. The stakeholders should be able to contribute to strategic planning for the industry, and for its development. It is also important that the organisation has complete control over all the aspects of the construction industry which has a multitude of aspects. As mentioned above, the industry should preferably have a role to play in the work of the agency in formulating and implementing its plans. Finally, the agency should be continuously relevant to the construction industry. This implies that its plans, policies, initiatives, procedures and communication channels should be constantly reviewed and fine-tuned or radically restructured where necessary.

As there are changes in the systems of development of construction industry in Sudan, there is a great need for a body to regulate the industry for the time being. In the following sections, the research deals with the justification for establishing such a model.

2.8 Sustainability in Construction Development

2.8.1 Sustainable development

Another area where construction industries perform poorly is with regards to environmental considerations. Construction activities in developing countries may involve excessive resource consumption, and cause land degradation, loss of habitats, air, and water pollution, and involve high energy usage, Climate change poses a huge challenge to current global industrial development. Addressing global issues such as sustainability, global warming (levels of C02 emissions by buildings under construction and in use) and use of water and other natural resources involves requirements that might be difficult for construction sector participants to comply with (UNIDO, 2009) (van Wyk, 2004). It is important to have a deliberate and managed process to improve the capacity and effectiveness of the Cl to meet the national economic demand for building and civil engineering products, and to support sustained national economic and social development objectives. The development of the construction and contracting sector is confronted by multiple challenge that need to be anticipated and effectively addressed through adequate preparation of implementation plans, research studies, and specialized work plans. These should be directed towards identifying strengths and weaknesses, recognising opportunities to be seized that pose heightened risk to the performance of the sector as well as supporting its human resources. Such objectives make it incumbent upon the state and those holding positions of responsibility within the industry to achieve higher standards of excellence to combat any performance shortcomings and ensure quality control and transparency within the work environment.

Sustainability is the condition or state which would allow the continued existence of homo-sapiens, and provide a safe, healthy, and productive life in harmony with nature and local cultural and spiritual values. It is a goal that needs to be achieved. The World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland, 1987) defines sustainable development as the development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It requires the promotion of values that encourage consumption standards within the bounds of the ecologically possible and to which all could reasonably aspire.

2.8.2 Sustainability in construction

Sustainable construction means that the principles of sustainable development are applied to the comprehensive construction cycle from the extraction and beneficiation of raw materials, through the planning, design and construction of buildings and infrastructure, until their final deconstruction and management of the resultant waste. This is a holistic process aiming to restore and maintain harmony between the natural and built environments while creating settlements that affirm human dignity and encourage economic equity. As mentioned before, Sudan faces the problem of unavailability of infrastructure yet, human settlements require infrastructure to sustain them. Settlements cannot be developed without infrastructure such as electricity, pipe-borne water, roads, streetlights, and sewage disposal systems (Ofori, 1990). This raises the question of what are sustainable human settlements?

Sustainable human settlements are those cities, towns, villages, and their communities that enable us to live in a manner which supports the state of sustainability and principles of sustainable development.

This response considers the definition of sustainable development which is the kind of development needed to achieve sustainability. It is a continuous process of maintaining a dynamic balance between the demands of people for equity, prosperity, and quality of life, and what is ecologically possible.

2.8.3 Urban sustainability

1) Urban sustainability includes sustainable construction, creation of institutional, social, and economic systems that support sustainable development.
2) Sustainable construction aims to meet present-day needs for housing, working environments and infrastructure without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs in times to come. It incorporates elements of economic efficiency, environmental performance, and social responsibility, and contributes when architectural quality, technical innovation, and transferability are included.
3) CICA and UNEP (2002) noted that a "sustainable construction industry" no longer means that the industry can continue its business and grow, it also needs to supports the principles of sustainable development. Which may mean that, in some cases, it needs to stop growing, or grow in more diverse ways.
4) Construction is an intensive industry in terms of labour, materials, and energy.

Sustainability is a call for rationality. What is needed is to re-engineer the Cl in a similar way to the UK based task force that visited Nissan UK and reported: "we see that construction has two choices: ignore all this in the belief that construction is so unique that there are no lessons to be learned; or seek improvement through re-engineering construction, learning as much as possible from those who have done it elsewhere" (Egan, 1998). If the latter approach is adopted the industry must rethink the process through which it delivers its projects to achieve and sustain improvement in its performance and products.

2.9 Factors influencing the Construction Industry

From the above studies, it is clear that regional and international experiences, and the factors affecting the Cl differ from one country to another. However, there are certain factors that seem to be very important for an ideal model or a general system for developing the construction sector in a country taking into consideration the environmental and economic condition of that country. Elkhalifa (2013) outlined certain factors that have affected the performance of the SCI. Thus, the development of Cl, building materials industry and related aspects have been influenced by these factors. This research concentrates on the most important factors that the government officials, practitioners, researchers and scholars have concentrated on to be the backbone of any model or system to be applied in Sudan. Most of the papers referred to in this research are from the conference of the "Construction Management in Developing Countries: Education, Training, Research and Practice" held in Khartoum on 10-13 March 2013, organized by the University of Khartoum and University of Reading. Banaga (2010) in his paper from the same conference mentioned the importance of certain factors that relate to the construction industry in Sudan. Thus, this research selected about sixteen factors from the above haphazard ones mentioned in Elkhalifa (2013), Ofori (2011), Show (1979), Mahmid (2012) and others, as well as scholars' studies and experience from countries all over the world. To identify these factors and their effects on the construction industry and on each other, a questionnaire is planned to interview experts, officials, scholars, contractors, and consultants, who are interested in the field of developing the construction industry and its derivatives, such as building materials industries, etc. the research concentrated on the following factors to be the base for the model of the SCI.

2.9.1 Transfer of Technology (TT)

The shorthand expression 'transfer of technology' is misleading, to the extent that it suggests that technologies can in fact be transferred wholesale and in working order. Capital goods can be transferred, but capital goods alone do not constitute a technology; they represent only that part of the technology which is embodied in hardware. Significant though they may be indirect transfers have not received much attention in past research. Similarly, there has likewise been very little research into the acquisition of foreign technological knowledge through activities in which foreigners play a passive part. Information about these sources of knowledge is hard to obtain while the problems associated with direct transfers in which foreigners play an active part are more easily acquired. Thus, past research has concentrated on transfers made through transactions for which the primary motivation is clearly to purchase technology. Explicit transactions to transfer technology without any other elements take many forms (Dahlman and Westphal, 1982). The agency would promote technical cooperation and technology transfer among developing countries, for example by publishing model contracts and guidelines for negotiations. It could also prepare handbooks on aspects of construction, such as appropriate government policies, informal sector programs and compendiums on various types of technology (Ofori, 1993).

Among the simplest forms of the transaction are contracting the services of individuals or consulting companies to provide individual elements of technology. For example: to undertake specific design or process engineering tasks; to give technical assistance during various phases of the establishment and operation of a plant; or to provide technical information services, other transactions include licensing and trade-mark agreements which transfer proprietary product and process designs (Dahlman & Westphal 1982).

Transfers of technology embedded in direct foreign investment are sometimes accomplished through turnkey contracts given to independent general contractors, but more often it is the foreign investor who acts as the general contractor (Dahlman and Westphal, 1982). Imports of technology do not need to be transferred to any of the technological mastery needed for the subsequent replacement of foreign by local expertise.

Compared to other industries, the Cl lags in terms of technology and skills, although the level to which the industry lags varies significantly between developed countries (DCs) and less developed countries (LDCs). The situation is worse in LDCs (Tatum and C.B., 1989a) and, as a result, many of them depend on DCs in term of technology, materials, and equipment and workmanship skills. The LDCs depend on foreign contractors and consultants to accomplish complicated and complex projects that require advanced technology, services, advanced equipment, and management.

Accordingly, the DCs transferring knowledge to LDCs is required due to the big technological gap between them. However, the transfer takes different forms for example, developing joint projects and courses between native and foreign companies, creating new policies for foreign companies to subcontract to local firms, training specialist in developed countries and any other suitable methods and forms of services to transfer technology (Kumaraswamy and Shrestha, 2002; Carrillo, 1996).

Carrilo (1994) and Ofori (1994) studied the importance of technology transfer and methods in which knowledge can be transfered to the local Cl. The results of the studies proved that countries which have established an operative framework for Transfer Technology have benefited in transferring technology for their local Cl.

In the past, the Cl has been functional as a labour-intensive industry with little application of technology. But nowadays the increasing complexity of buildings and other infrastructures coupled with competition in the industry has inspired the industry to look for and take on board new technology to overcome the challenges associated with these buildings and other infrastructures. Companies are increasingly focusing on the area of design like the application of BIM technology, and areas of construction such as préfabrication which has hugely increased efficiency.

Transfer technology methods have been used in many countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Hong Kong where there has been significant success. Devapriya and Ganesan (2002) reported that some Asian countries like Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Malaysia have succeeded in transferring technology to their Cl because of their well-established transferring technology infrastructure, collaborative efforts between government and construction stakeholders and policies and framework that have enabled effective transfers.

2.9.2 Competitive Environment

The competitive environment is an all-embracing subjective term that varies across geographical locations as well as market sectors. The construction market sectors can be viewed in terms of housing, general building contracting and civil engineering. At an international level, most contractors will target market sectors within countries particularly at times where a country's economy is expected to boom as this is likely to generate larger profits. In Singapore, for example, both foreign and local contractors are eyeing the expected boom in the construction market following the beginning of investment in the island's integrated resort and casino projects. To compete successfully, international contractors not only need to interpret the makeup of the different competitive environments within each country but also to understand the contractors who show competitive behaviour within those environments (Lan Oo et al., 2007). The changing environment creates a need and an opportunity for enterprises to change their scopes and their governance structures. However, this process may not be straightforward.

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Details

Title
Development of the Sudanese Construction Industry SCI using Dynamic Modeling
Subtitle
The relationship between SCI and its contribution to the Sudanese GDP
Author
Year
2018
Pages
269
Catalog Number
V446146
ISBN (eBook)
9783668859197
Language
English
Tags
development, sudanese, construction, industry, dynamic, modeling
Quote paper
Malik Dongla (Author), 2018, Development of the Sudanese Construction Industry SCI using Dynamic Modeling, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/446146

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