This study is aimed at modelling the Sudanese Construction Industry (SCI) by conducting a comprehensive review and analysis of factors affecting the construction industry in Sudan. This study examines the relationship between SCI and the whole economy focusing on its contribution to the Sudanese GDP. In addition, the study also is aimed at developing suitable System Dynamics Models (SDMs) in order to better understand the behavior of this industry.
Multiple research methods are employed including a questionnaire survey and interviews. The questionnaire survey is formulated for the purpose of collecting primary data about the factors influencing the SCI and the challenges facing the construction industry. Sixteen relevant factors are identified that influence the SCI. These factors are evaluated and ranked according to their interrelationships and relative importance to the development of SCI. The questionnaire targeted fifty experienced members of construction stakeholder organisations.
A pairwise comparison method is used to determine dynamic weights and the relative importance of each criterion. The relationships between different factors and dynamic weights are assessed by using the VENSIM® program to formulate a system dynamic model for SCI. The research employed the Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique to develop the best-fit models representing the relationships between the significant factors.
Two sets of results are obtained, random and systematic; the systematic results were used to develop several different SDMs. The validity and sensitivity of these models are also evaluated. The fourth model was connected with the SCI‟s portion of GDP through a dynamic molecule to measure the output of the construction industry. The main outcome of the fourth model is the estimation of a 6.2% share Sudan GDP for the SCI. Four strategies were tested simultaneously based on observations of neighboring countries and how they embarked upon developing and improving their construction industries.
The findings also revealed that the “regulation of the sector” factor is the top ranked factor. Therefore, the industry is in desperate need of the establishment and/or empowerment of appropriate institutions necessary to facilitate the development of a modern and sophisticated construction industry.
Contents
1. CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
1.2 Theoretical Background
1.3 Research aim
1.4 Research Objectives
1.5 Research Questions
1.6 Research Frameworks
1.7 Structure of the Thesis
2. CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Construction Industry (CI)
2.3 The construction and Building Materials Industry and The Role of Oil Production
2.4 Construction Industry Development
2.5 Constraints of developing Construction Industry
2.6 Review of Studies in Construction Sector
2.7 Systems in Different Countries
2.7.1 Experience of the United Kingdom
2.7.2 Experience of Malaysia
2.7.3 Experience of the Republic of Turkey
2.7.4 Experience of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
2.7.5 Evidence of International Best Practice
2.8 Sustainability in Construction Development
2.8.1 Sustainable development
2.8.2 Sustainability in construction
2.8.3 Urban sustainability
2.9 Factors influencing the Construction Industry
2.9.1 Transfer of Technology (TT)
2.9.2 Competitive Environment
2.9.3 Regulation for the Sector
2.9.4 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
2.9.5 Macroeconomic indicators (Inflation rate (IF) and exchange rate)
2.9.6 Engineering Education
2.9.7 Production of constructions inputs materials
2.9.8 Human resource and employment
2.9.9 Training and Capacity Skill
2.9.10 Migration of Engineers and Technician
2.9.11 Loss of Physical Infrastructure
2.9.12 Order of Law
2.9.13 Structuring System (to disturb the work according to standard classification)
2.9.14 Globalisation
2.9.15 Imbalance of private/public sectors
2.9.16 Research and Development
2.10 Summary
3. CHAPTER THREE SUDANESE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY AND ITS ROLE IN THE ECONOMY
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 The Single Body System
3.1.2 The Multi Fragmented System
3.2 The Challenges of the Construction Industry
3.2.1 The economic weaknesses
3.2.2 Poor Performance of the Construction Industries
3.2.3 The gap between government understanding and industry requirement
3.2.4 Public-Sector Capacity
3.2.5 The mismatch between Available Skills and Required Skills
3.2.6 Critical Global Issues/Globalisation
3.2.7 Availability of Infrastructure
3.2.8 Increases in the Costs of Building Materials
3.2.9 Statutes and Regulations
3.3 Construction and the economy
3.3.1 Economic Policies and Plans in Sudan: Historical Overview
3.3.2 The Performance of the Sudanese Economy
3.3.3 The Structure of the Sudanese Economy
3.4 The Contribution of the Construction Industry to the National Economy
3.5 Summary
4. CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Data Typology
4.2.1 Quantitative data
4.2.2 Qualitative data
4.2.3 Mixed data
4.3 Data Collection Methods
4.3.1 Observation
4.3.2 Survey
4.3.3 Grounded theory
4.3.4 Action research
4.3.5 Ethnography
4.3.6 Case Study
4.3.7 Questionnaire
4.3.8 Interview
4.3.9 Focus group
4.4 Methods Adopted in the Current Study
4.5 System Dynamic Model
4.5.1 Pre-SDM modelling
4.5.2 SDM modelling
4.5.3 Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach
4.6 Summary
5. Chapter Five SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODELLING OF THE Construction Industry IN SUDAN
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Data Collected
5.2.1 Introduction
5.2.2 Factors influencing Construction Industry (CI) in Sudan
5.3 Data analysis
5.3.1 Statistical analysis
5.3.2 Mean Value
5.3.3 The coefficient of variation (COV)
5.3.4 Importance index (Severity index)
5.3.5 Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient τ
5.4 Dynamic weights
5.5 System dynamics model SDM
5.5.1 SD tool (Vensim®)
5.5.2 Model sketching
5.5.3 Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach
5.5.4 Mathematical model
5.6 Building and validation of model’s equations
5.7 Summary
6. CHAPTER SIX RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
6.1 Introduction
6.1.1 Statistical results
6.1.2 Dynamic weights
6.2 Basic SDM
6.3 Preliminary SDM
6.3.1 Dynamic sketching
6.4 Developed SDM
6.4.1 SDM factor relationships trees and loops
6.4.2 Summary of Trees Relationships for the SCI Factors
6.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis of SDM
6.4.4 Sensitivity Analysis Examples
6.4.5 Discussion on SDM model
6.4.6 The mathematical validity of the SDM
6.4.7 The conclusion of the three SDMs
6.5 SDM as an appraisal tool for policies
6.5.1 GDP molecule connected with developed SDM
6.6 Overview of the SCI Share of GDP
6.6.1 Validation of the model
6.6.2 Factor scenarios
6.6.3 Strategies
6.6.4 What does this figure of GDP(Construction) represent?
6.7 Discussion of the results obtained from the interviews and a report of the Ministry of Finance
6.7.1 Discussion of results of interviews and questionnaires
6.7.2 Discussion of the ministry of finance report
6.7.3 Scenarios of different policies for the factors
6.7.4 Scenarios of different strategies
6.8 Summary
7. CHAPTER SEVEN CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 Summary and Achievements
7.2 Research Limitations
7.3 Value of the Research and the Contribution to Knowledge
7.3.1 Value of the research
7.3.2 Achievements
7.4 Research Recommendations
7.4.1 Recommendations based on influencing factors
7.4.2 Recommendations based on strategies
7.5 Recommendations for Future Studies
Research Objectives and Focus Areas
The primary aim of this research is to model the Sudanese Construction Industry (SCI) by identifying and analyzing the critical factors affecting its output, assessing the dynamic interrelationships between these factors using System Dynamics Modeling (SDM), and utilizing these models to propose and evaluate strategies for improving the industry's contribution to the national GDP.
- Identification and evaluation of critical factors influencing the Sudanese construction industry.
- Dynamic interrelationship assessment of factors using System Dynamics Modeling.
- Validation of models using Genetic Algorithms (GA) to establish links to GDP.
- Formulation of strategies for the development and regulation of the construction sector.
Excerpt from the Book
1.1 General
Construction is vital in the development of nations. From the beginning of the time, man has continued to develop his home from very materials surrounding him. Construction has developed over time until all nations of the world have started to consider construction as an industry that can enhance the development of their economy if tackled properly. It is now considered as one of the issues assumed to be integral to the sustainable development of countries to enhance the national economy.
The construction industry (CI) is one of the most complicated sectors in all countries; each country has different approaches to tackle issues within this sector. In developed countries, the organization of the construction industry has a long history, its development, processes, systems and procedures have influenced other countries in the developing world. The CI is now considered as a cornerstone in the development of a national economy, where its contribution to economic growth and long-term national development is widely acknowledged in developed countries. Ambiguities still exist in developing countries within the concepts of the CI, where a roadmap to plan for longer-term is required (Flanagan 2013). For example, Ofori describes the industry in his research (Ofori 2015) as not well understood, he Saied There is no common definition, and there are even arguments about whether it is an industry or a sector that comprises many industries.
Summary of Chapters
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION: Provides the research background, objectives, and questions, establishing the importance of the construction industry in national development.
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW: Defines the construction industry, discusses international modeling experiences, and reviews factors affecting the industry in developing countries and specifically in Sudan.
CHAPTER THREE SUDANESE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY AND ITS ROLE IN THE ECONOMY: Examines the Sudanese construction industry, its economic challenges, and its historical role and structure within the national economy.
CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: Details the research methodology, data collection, and the foundational approach to System Dynamic Modeling.
CHAPTER FIVE SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODELLING OF THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN SUDAN: Outlines the development of the system dynamics models, including variable identification and the application of Genetic Algorithms.
CHAPTER SIX RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS: Discusses the findings, including model validation, factor relationships, and the impact of suggested policies on the construction industry's contribution to GDP.
CHAPTER SEVEN CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS: Summarizes the study’s achievements, limitations, and provides strategic recommendations for policy development and future research.
Keywords
Sudanese Construction Industry, SCI, System Dynamics Model, SDM, Genetic Algorithm, GA, GDP, Economic Development, Construction Management, Technology Transfer, Infrastructure, Policy Formulation, Performance Indicators, Sustainability, Developing Countries.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core purpose of this doctoral thesis?
The thesis aims to develop a system dynamics approach to model the Sudanese construction industry, allowing for a better understanding of its complexity and providing decision-makers with tools to improve its economic contribution.
What are the primary factors influencing the Sudanese construction industry?
The research identifies sixteen key factors, including technology transfer, competitive environment, sector regulation, foreign direct investment, macroeconomic indicators, and engineering education.
How is the industry's economic impact measured?
The study focuses on the industry's contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), analyzing how specific factors, when managed through optimized policies, can improve the industry’s share of national GDP.
Which methodology is employed to analyze the construction sector?
The study employs a mixed-methods approach using questionnaire surveys, interviews, and System Dynamics Modeling (SDM) integrated with Genetic Algorithms (GA) to quantify factor relationships.
What is the expected outcome of the proposed management strategies?
By implementing a central regulatory body (Sudanese Construction Industry Development Board) and specific strategies, the models suggest a potential increase in the construction industry's share of Sudan's GDP to approximately 6.2%.
What characterizes the Sudanese construction industry according to this research?
It is described as a fragmented system that suffers from poor coordination, lack of strategic planning, and an over-reliance on external contractors, necessitating reform through centralized regulation and technology integration.
How do "Genetic Algorithms" (GAs) assist the study?
GAs are used as a computational optimization technique to determine the most accurate mathematical relationships between the identified industry factors, helping to overcome the complexity of the dynamic model.
What role does the Ministry of Finance report play in this study?
The study uses the Ministry of Finance's report on construction contracts to discuss practical, innovative solutions for improving contract procedures and dispute resolution in Sudan.
Why are international experiences (UK, Malaysia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia) highlighted?
These countries serve as case studies to demonstrate successful regulatory and developmental models that can be adapted to the Sudanese context to solve structural and economic challenges.
- Quote paper
- Malik Dongla (Author), 2018, Development of the Sudanese Construction Industry SCI using Dynamic Modeling, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/446146
