India faces a dilemma. Its prime minister promised access to electricity, education and health to all citizens. Meanwhile, it aims in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for a low carbon economy. The president of one of Asia’s most influential think tanks concludes if India doesn’t achieve the "Indian dream" in a climate friendly way, it will either destroy India or the planet. Since it is the most highly populated country in the world (17 % of the whole world population lives in India), the way it tackles climate change has a crucial impact globally.
To assess policy options, it is substantial to see to which scenarios policies lead to. Integrated assessment models provide these future scenarios by combining knowledge from a variety of disciplines.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. The AIM and the SSP1
3. Review and Comparison of IPCC and NDC Outcomes
4. Discussion of NDC Policies and Policy Advice
5. Conclusion
Objectives and Topics
This paper examines India's climate policy landscape by critically comparing the country's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets against the more ambitious outcomes projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) through the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). It evaluates whether India's current policies are sufficient to meet international climate expectations while balancing domestic developmental needs.
- Analysis of India's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
- Application of the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) and SSP1 scenarios
- Critical comparison of projected 2030 outcomes (electricity, GDP, population)
- Evaluation of current Indian climate mitigation policies
- Recommendations for policy improvements, including finance and education
Excerpt from the Book
3. Review and Comparison of IPCC and NDC Outcomes
The Scenario SSP1-19 in combination with the AIM model leads to a global warming in 2030 of 1.25°C and 1.09°C in 2100 compared to the preindustrial age (IIASA 2019). The following table illustrates the different outcomes of the IPCC and NDC.
It demonstrates that the IPCC outcomes are more ambitious than the NDC outcomes. However, the Indian government plans to implement several policies to mitigate climate change. It aims for a clean and efficient energy system through employing a coal cess, cutting subsidies for coal and increasing taxes on petrol and diesel. Furthermore, it is running one of the largest renewable capacity expansion programs in the world. Additionally, it wants to achieve 40 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030. To realise this, India needs a transfer of technology and low-cost international funding (Ibid., 7, 9, 11, 29). To decrease its energy demand, it is building 100 low-carbon smart cities as well as a low carbon infrastructure and public transport systems (Ibid., 13, 14). It further aims to promote new agricultural technology to increase efficiency (Ibid., 20).
Although the Indian government emphasises the importance of sustainable growth (Ibid, 5-7), it is only stating growth will be achieved through employing new technologies (Ibid, 3-32) without explaining how. A reduction of the population is not mentioned in the NDC.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Outlines the central dilemma facing India between achieving development goals for its citizens and committing to a low-carbon economy.
2. The AIM and the SSP1: Explains the functionality of the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model and the role of the SSP1 "Taking the Green Road" scenario in assessing future policy impacts.
3. Review and Comparison of IPCC and NDC Outcomes: Compares data projections for 2030 regarding energy demand, GDP, and population to highlight the gap between official NDC goals and IPCC projections.
4. Discussion of NDC Policies and Policy Advice: Analyzes specific policy gaps and suggests improvements, such as abandoning fossil fuel subsidies, expanding green finance, and addressing demographic factors.
5. Conclusion: Summarizes that while India is making progress, its current approaches are insufficient to meet the most ambitious climate targets without significant adjustments.
Keywords
India, Climate Change, NDC, IPCC, Asia-Pacific Integrated Model, AIM, SSP1, Global Warming, Sustainable Growth, Energy Policy, Coal Cess, Green Finance, Population Growth, Renewable Energy, Economic Development
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this research paper?
The paper focuses on the effectiveness of India's climate mitigation strategies by comparing the country's own NDC commitments with projections from the IPCC.
What are the primary thematic areas covered?
The themes include integrated assessment modeling, energy policy, macroeconomic indicators, sustainable development, and climate-related governance in India.
What is the primary objective or research question?
The objective is to determine if India's current policy trajectory is ambitious enough to align with the outcomes suggested by the AIM/SSP1 climate models.
Which scientific method is utilized?
The research utilizes a comparative analytical method, benchmarking official government targets against computer-simulated scenarios from the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM).
What is addressed in the main body of the text?
The main body examines the technical differences between NDC and IPCC outcomes, evaluates current mitigation policies like the coal cess and renewable expansion, and provides policy recommendations.
Which keywords characterize the work?
Key terms include India, NDC, IPCC, AIM, Global Warming, Sustainable Growth, and Energy Policy.
How does the AIM model contribute to the analysis?
The AIM model provides the necessary framework for simulating future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantitative comparison between potential outcomes and current government targets.
Why is demographic change highlighted as a policy recommendation?
The author argues that India's high birth rate and lack of sex education are significant factors that hinder the achievement of climate-compatible population levels by 2030.
What is the author's critique of India's current green finance?
The author suggests that current regulatory restrictions on insurance companies and pension funds limit investments in green bonds, and that a shift in these policies could channel more capital into sustainable projects.
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- David Höhl (Autor:in), 2019, India’s Potential for Improvement to Mitigate Global Warming, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/465439
