In this paper, India’s stance on the Sino-American power transition will be examined. The questions that arise out of this task and will be answered are: How satisfied is India with the status-quo of the international system and how will China's rise in power change India's overall state satisfaction?
In face of America's relative decline, the continuous existence of the established international order, the Pax Americana, throughout the twenty-first century is more and more becoming a question of the rising states’ satisfaction with this order. More specifically, it is becoming increasingly clear that India, as the second main driver of the global power shift, will play a significant role in deciding the future of the international system.
To answer these questions a quick overview of the global and regional power shift and China's and India's respective state power are given. Afterwards, the theoretical framework for power transitions, the power transition theory, is explained with a focus on the role of state satisfaction and how it can be measured. Public opinion polls and key foreign policy initiatives, as well as alliances, are analyzed to estimate India’s state satisfaction with the current system and the influence China’s rise in power has on it.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Current State of Research
3. Theory
3.1. The Role of State Satisfaction in Power Transitions
3.2. Indicators of State Satisfaction
4. Materials and Methods
4.1. Public Opinion regarding the US and China’s rise in Power
4.2. Key Alliances and Perception Analysis
5. Results
5.1. Public Opinion on the United States and China
5.2. Foreign Policy
5.2.1. Alliances and Policy Initiatives
6. Conclusion
6.1. Summary
6.2. Discussion
Research Objectives and Themes
This paper investigates India's geopolitical stance amidst the ongoing power transition between the United States and China. By analyzing public opinion data and India's strategic foreign policy maneuvers, the research aims to determine whether India is satisfied with the current international status quo or if it perceives China's rise as a compelling alternative for alignment.
- Power transition theory and state satisfaction
- India’s demographic and economic growth trajectory
- Public perception of the US versus China in India
- Strategic alliances and regional security complexes
- The influence of territorial disputes on foreign policy
Excerpt from the Book
3.1. The Role of State Satisfaction in Power Transitions
Major wars involving both the current dominant power of a hierarchical international System and its closest challenger are the subject of Power Transition Theory (PTT). In its original formulation by A. F. K. Organski, a global Hegemon builds the international order to most benefit itself and stabilize its power, thereby accommodating some states, while leaving others in disadvantage. Differential growth rates, however, can over time translate into power shifts towards new contenders for global domination. A power transition occurs when power parity between the dominant power and its challenger is reached. Depending on the contender’s satisfaction with the status quo of the international system a major war might be looming. Contenders who are satisfied with the status quo of the international system are more likely to want to continue the existing order after the transition and thereby adopt a peaceful attitude towards the hegemon. The hegemon, not identifying any threat to its established order, will also be more likely to content with the new hierarchy. Peaceful transition of power between a hegemon and a dissatisfied challenger, on the other hand, is seen as extremely unlikely or even impossible (Organski 1958: 337).
Thus, according to this theory, the degree of the rising power’s satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the status quo of the international system determines the likelihood of major war.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: This chapter outlines the global power shift toward Asia and establishes the research goal of examining India’s position in a potential Sino-American power transition.
2. Current State of Research: This chapter discusses the evidence for a global power shift and reviews existing literature on India’s rising power and its demographic and economic potential.
3. Theory: This chapter introduces Power Transition Theory, focusing on the concepts of state satisfaction and the strategic importance of secondary powers in global contests.
4. Materials and Methods: This chapter describes the methodology, utilizing Pew Research Center data for public opinion and examining key foreign policy initiatives to measure state satisfaction.
5. Results: This chapter presents the empirical findings, showing that Indians generally favor the US, while simultaneously analyzing India’s strategic security partnerships.
6. Conclusion: This chapter summarizes the evidence, concluding that India’s actions suggest a preference for the current US-led order over a Chinese-dominated alternative.
Keywords
India, United States, China, Power Transition, State Satisfaction, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, International Relations, Public Opinion, Security, Alliances, Indian Ocean, Regional Power, Pax Americana, Hegemony
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this research?
The research examines India’s stance regarding the potential power transition from the United States to China and how satisfied India is with the current international status quo.
What are the central thematic fields?
The core themes include Power Transition Theory, the analysis of public perception through polling data, and the evaluation of India’s foreign policy and security alliances.
What is the core research question?
The study asks how satisfied India is with the current international system and whether China's rise will compel India to align with the US or toward a new order led by China.
Which scientific methodology is employed?
The author combines quantitative analysis of public opinion surveys from the Pew Research Center with a qualitative analysis of military and economic foreign policy initiatives since the 1990s.
What does the main body of the work cover?
It provides a theoretical framework for power shifts, analyzes India’s diplomatic and military relationships with neighbors and global powers, and evaluates public sentiment in India.
Which keywords characterize the work?
Key terms include Power Transition, State Satisfaction, Geopolitics, Sino-American relations, and India's strategic foreign policy.
Why is India’s role considered exceptional in this context?
India is identified as the second main driver of the global power shift, whose consistently high growth rates suggest it may eventually become a contender for dominance itself.
How does the author interpret India's "Look East" initiative?
It is analyzed as a strategic move to deepen relations with Japan and Southeast Asian nations to balance against the growing regional influence of China.
What role does the "String of Pearls" play in the author's argument?
The author describes it as a Chinese strategy for securing trade routes that India perceives as an encirclement, contributing to a security dilemma between the two nations.
What conclusion does the author reach?
The author concludes that India appears more satisfied with the US-dominated international order and is actively pursuing partnerships to balance Chinese power, making an alignment with China unlikely.
- Quote paper
- Peter Solbach (Author), 2019, India's Perspective on the Sino-American Power Transition, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/465558
