The following work presents the main results of the article "US Exports and Employment" by Robert C. Feenstra, Hong Ma and Yuan Xu from September 2017. Moreover, this work will focus on the underlying econometric methodology and will discuss possible weaknesses. Further, the author examines the scientific potential of the article and its contribution to science.
The authors of the article used instrument variables regressions to examine the unbiased effects of the change in the US industry level import penetration from China and the change of US global industrial export exposure on US employment.
Increasing imports from China have been the subject of massive critics from the White House and in particular from President Donald Trump. One often repeated argument in favour of hampering imports from China has been the job losses in the manufacturing sector due to import competition. Although, various papers focus on job reducing effects of surging imports from China and the theory that export exposure creates jobs is well accepted, the effects on the US labour market due to changes in global export exposure had not been examined yet.
Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)
- Introduction
- Industry level - Empirical Strategy
- Instrument for change in industry level import penetration from China
- Instruments for change of global industrial export exposure
- Investigating the effect of export growth and import exposure on employment
- Specifications
- Commuting zone level – Empirical Strategy
- Instruments for change in industry level import penetration from China and change of global industrial export exposure
- Investigating the effect of export growth and import exposure on employment
- Critic
- Validity of the used instrumental variables
- Contribution
- Conclusion
Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)
The paper explores the effects of global industrial export expansion and import competition from China on U.S. employment between 1991 and 2011. The authors use instrument variables regressions to isolate the impact of these factors on employment at both the industry and commuting zone levels, aiming to address the potential endogeneity issues present in traditional analyses.
- Impact of global industrial export expansion on U.S. employment
- Effects of import competition from China on U.S. employment
- Addressing endogeneity concerns in estimating employment impacts
- Comparison of employment responses at industry and commuting zone levels
- Evaluation of the effectiveness of instrument variables in identifying unbiased effects
Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)
- Introduction: This chapter provides an overview of the research question, highlighting the significance of understanding the effects of import competition from China and global export expansion on U.S. employment. It outlines the methodology employed in the paper, which involves instrument variables regressions at both the industry and commuting zone levels.
- Industry level - Empirical Strategy: This chapter delves into the econometric approach used at the industry level, including the construction of instrument variables to mitigate endogeneity concerns. It discusses the challenges of measuring import penetration from China and global export exposure accurately and explores the rationale behind using data from other high-income countries to construct the instrument.
- Commuting zone level – Empirical Strategy: This chapter presents the empirical strategy employed at the commuting zone level, analyzing the impact of import competition and export expansion on employment in local labor markets. It discusses the construction of instrument variables for this level of analysis and highlights the similarities and differences in the empirical approach compared to the industry level.
- Critic: This chapter explores potential weaknesses and limitations of the study, focusing particularly on the validity of the instrument variables used. It discusses potential sources of bias and discusses how these limitations might affect the results.
Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)
This study delves into the intricate relationship between U.S. employment, global export expansion, and import competition from China. The focus rests on the use of instrument variables regressions, particularly at the industry and commuting zone levels, to unveil the unbiased effects of these economic factors on U.S. employment. The study utilizes the change in import penetration from China within high-income countries, as well as export expansion of similar economies, to construct robust instruments that address endogeneity concerns.
- Quote paper
- Joshua Karcher (Author), 2018, The effects on the US labour market due to changes in the global export exposure, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/496936
