Foreign policy is usually characterized by low-salience issues citizens know little about. This has important societal implications for democratic control (Endres et al. 2015). Can public opinion on such topics therefore influence elite positions? In December 2018, several countries experienced unexpected domestic tensions because of something which usually gets not much attention – the signing of a UN agreement. In Belgium, the debate around whether or not to sign the UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (called “the Compact” here) evolved into a crisis resulting in the collapse of the government (United Nation General Assembly 2019; Lobel 2018a). What led the largest Belgian government party change its position to reject the Compact and discontinue its membership in the Belgian government? I investigate this outlier case using literature on the impact of public opinion on foreign policy and party influence on public opinion. By doing that, I examine what role the top-down influence played compared to bottom-up influence. I argue that only if an issue is salient, a party will try to represent the position of voters while citizens receive cues from the party in order to inform and persuade them. To answer the research question, I analyze both the top-down and the bottom-up process as well as what tactics and tools were used. In the conclusion I point out findings, limitations and the generalizability of this work.
Table of Contents
1. What Matters to Citizens and Parties Might Suddenly Change
2. Public Opinion and Party Position on Foreign Policy Issues – Bottom-Up or Top-Down?
3. Consequences of a Mass-Elite Gap or Just Fishing for Votes?
3.1 The Case of the Belgian Government Crisis 2018
3.2 Three Explanations for a Political U-Turn
3.3 Mixed Methods Approach
3.4 Pressure From the Right, Signals From the Base, Disinformation from Everywhere – When Time-Ordering and Low-Information Environments Matter
H1: The N-VA used disinformation as a tool of its top-down response to losing voters in order to distract from substantive debates and discredit other parties
H2: The N-VA got influenced by other European right-wing actors
H3: The N-VA got influenced by general voters’ preferences on the migration issue manifested in electoral pressure
4. Salience is a Necessary Condition
Research Objectives and Core Themes
This study investigates the Belgian government crisis of 2018 triggered by the UN Global Compact for Migration, examining the reciprocal influence between public opinion and elite positions in foreign policy. It specifically explores whether the decision of the Flemish nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) to oppose the Compact was driven by authentic bottom-up voter pressure or by a top-down strategic maneuver to regain electoral ground.
- Mechanisms of top-down versus bottom-up influence in foreign policy
- The role of issue salience as a precondition for political impact
- Strategic use of disinformation and populist framing by political elites
- Impact of low-information environments on public opinion formation
- Electoral consequences of distinct foreign policy positioning
Excerpt from the Book
3.4 Pressure From the Right, Signals From the Base, Disinformation from Everywhere – When Time-Ordering and Low-Information Environments Matter
My basic assumption is that it is implausible that the N-VA opposed the Compact due to substantive reasons after passively approving it that long. First, as the largest party in government they had the means to raise objections but officially did not until 3rd of December 2018 although its general position on the issue of migration did not change. The N-VA did not voice any critique during two years of negotiations but agreed to the signature of the Compact and its promotion among third countries on several occasions (Brinckman 2018b; Schaart 2018). The newspaper De Standaard for example cites an N-VA spokesman about the 180-degree turn: “Eventually new elements emerged in the story. The symbolism around Marrakech increased enormously, it became a political issue. (…)” (Brinckman 2018b; Schaart 2018). Also, as a reply to an email request directly to the N-VA, a member told me:
We started expressing our doubts concerning the Compact, and ultimately our opposition, from the moment the content of the Compact really got on the radar of our party leaders. The Compact got on our radar after Austria took a clear position against the Compact, even though it had helped negotiating the Compact in the name of the EU. (personal communication with N-VA member, 8th of May 2019)
I conclude that the issue was not salient for the N-VA until Austria set it on the agenda (Arnoudt 2018). Second, there was also no reason for it to perceive it as salient, as most voters did not know the issue existed. There was virtually no media coverage and also other parties did not inform their voters about the Compact. This changed only after the N-VA started to actively campaign against the Compact. The peaks of interest in Figure 4 are on 5th of December, the day after the N-VA caused public outcry with a social media campaign, and on 9th of December, the day after the fall of the government coalition.
Summary of Chapters
1. What Matters to Citizens and Parties Might Suddenly Change: Introduces the research puzzle of the Belgian government crisis over the UN Migration Compact and the shift from low-salience foreign policy to domestic political collapse.
2. Public Opinion and Party Position on Foreign Policy Issues – Bottom-Up or Top-Down?: Discusses the theoretical framework regarding elite-mass interactions, highlighting the role of party cues and issue salience in shaping public opinion.
3. Consequences of a Mass-Elite Gap or Just Fishing for Votes?: Investigates the specific case of the N-VA, presenting hypotheses on disinformation, external influence, and electoral pressure as drivers for the party's abrupt policy U-turn.
4. Salience is a Necessary Condition: Concludes that issue salience is the critical requirement for reciprocal influence and synthesizes the findings regarding the dominance of top-down framing in this case.
Keywords
UN Global Compact for Migration, Belgium, N-VA, foreign policy, public opinion, elite cues, issue salience, political communication, disinformation, populist rhetoric, government crisis, voter preferences, migration, top-down influence, electoral strategy
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fundamental focus of this research?
The work examines the 2018 Belgian government crisis, specifically focusing on why the N-VA party abruptly withdrew its support for the UN Global Compact for Migration.
Which central themes are explored?
Key themes include the interplay between elite discourse and public opinion, the strategic manipulation of information, and the conditions under which foreign policy issues gain domestic political salience.
What is the primary research question?
The study seeks to identify what led the N-VA to change its position to rejecting the Compact and the relative roles played by top-down versus bottom-up political influences.
Which methodology does the author employ?
A mixed-methods approach is used, analyzing media reports, disinformation tactics, social media content, and secondary data from polls and Google Trends to track interest and narrative shifts.
What topics are covered in the main body?
The main body tests three specific hypotheses regarding the use of disinformation as a distraction, the influence of European right-wing actors, and the impact of voter preference signals on party decision-making.
Which keywords best characterize this study?
The study is defined by terms such as UN Global Compact for Migration, N-VA, issue salience, political cues, disinformation, and elite-mass interaction.
How did the Austrian position influence the Belgian outcome?
The author argues that Austria's withdrawal served as a catalyst, setting the agenda for the N-VA and providing a template for utilizing the Compact as a salient political issue.
What role did social media play in the N-VA's strategy?
The N-VA utilized controversial Facebook campaigns to rapidly increase the issue's salience among the public, often employing dramatized or misleading imagery to align the Compact with broader identity politics.
What does the author conclude about the "bottom-up" influence?
The author concludes that top-down influence from political elites played a significantly larger role than bottom-up pressure, as the issue was initially not salient to the general Belgian public.
- Quote paper
- Christin Rudolph (Author), 2019, No Belgian Compromise on the UN Compact for Migration, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/501250
