No Belgian Compromise on the UN Compact for Migration

About the Reciprocal Influence of Public Opinion and Party Position on Foreign Policy

Bachelor Thesis , 2019 , 29 Pages , Grade: 2,3

Politics - Other International Politics Topics

Foreign policy is usually characterized by low-salience issues citizens know little about. This has important societal implications for democratic control (Endres et al. 2015). Can public opinion on such topics therefore influence elite positions? In December 2018, several countries experienced unexpected domestic tensions because of something which usually gets not much attention – the signing of a UN agreement. In Belgium, the debate around whether or not to sign the UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (called “the Compact” here) evolved into a crisis resulting in the collapse of the government (United Nation General Assembly 2019; Lobel 2018a). What led the largest Belgian government party change its position to reject the Compact and discontinue its membership in the Belgian government? I investigate this outlier case using literature on the impact of public opinion on foreign policy and party influence on public opinion. By doing that, I examine what role the top-down influence played compared to bottom-up influence. I argue that only if an issue is salient, a party will try to represent the position of voters while citizens receive cues from the party in order to inform and persuade them. To answer the research question, I analyze both the top-down and the bottom-up process as well as what tactics and tools were used. In the conclusion I point out findings, limitations and the generalizability of this work.

Table of Content

1. What Matters to Citizens and Parties Might Suddenly Change

2. Public Opinion and Party Position on Foreign Policy Issues – Bottom-Up or Top-Down?

3. Consequences of a Mass-Elite Gap or Just Fishing for Votes?
3.1 The Case of the Belgian Government Crisis
3.2 Three Explanations for a Political U-Turn
3.3 Mixed Methods Approach
3.4 Pressure From the Right, Signals From the Base, Disinformation from Everywhere – When Time-Ordering and Low-Information Environments Matter
H1: The N-VA used disinformation as a tool of its top-down response to losing voters in order to distract from substantive debates and discredit other parties
H2: The N-VA got influenced by other European right-wing actors
H3: The N-VA got influenced by general voters’ preferences on the migration issue manifested in electoral pressure

4. Salience is a Necessary Condition

Literatur

• College: University of Mannheim
• Grade: 2,3
• Author: Christin Rudolph (Author)
• Publication Year: 2019
• Pages: 29
• Catalog Number: V501250
• ISBN (eBook): 9783346025982
• ISBN (Book): 9783346025999
• Language: English
• Tags: Belgien, Belgium, UN, United Nations, VN, Vereinte Nationen, Migration, Immigration, Public opinion, Öffentliche Meinung, Meinungsforschung, Perception, Foreign policy, Außenpolitik, Disinformation, Desinformation, Fake news, Vlaams Belang, N-VA, Nieuw-Vlaams Alliantie, Populismus, Populism, Right-wing, Rechts, Flandern, Flanders, EU, Eurobarometer, Flüchtlinge, Refugees