The case study is mainly divided into two parts: The first part is conducting a country rating based on the scheme of the rating company Moody's. It uses financial data to evaluate the creditworthiness of the state Bulgaria. The second part is analyzing the specific circumstances of the copper industry and describe relevant
influencing factors. These are used to forecast, based on statistical modeling, the future development of the
Bulgarian copper industry.
Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)
- Introduction
- Bulgaria and its economy
- Moody's rating for the country Bulgaria
- Economic Resiliency
- Government Financial Strength
- Governement Bond Rating Range
- Business Planning & Modelling
- Risks in producing Copper in Bulgaria
- Forecast for Copper Production's essential influencing factors
- Results
- References
Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)
This paper aims to conduct a sovereign rating of Bulgaria using the methodology of Moody's, a leading rating agency. The goal is to assess the creditworthiness of Bulgaria based on its economic strength, institutional framework, fiscal strength, and susceptibility to event risk. Additionally, the paper analyzes the Bulgarian copper industry, a significant export sector, focusing on risks associated with the industry and forecasting key indicators such as copper and aluminum prices, and minimum wages.
- Assessing Bulgaria's creditworthiness using Moody's rating methodology.
- Analyzing Bulgaria's economic, institutional, fiscal, and event risk factors.
- Evaluating the risks and opportunities within the Bulgarian copper industry.
- Forecasting key industry indicators such as copper and aluminum prices and minimum wages.
- Understanding the impact of sovereign ratings on the Bulgarian copper industry.
Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)
The paper begins by providing a brief overview of Bulgaria's economic and political landscape, highlighting its history, key industries, and current economic conditions. The following chapters delve into the sovereign rating process, evaluating Bulgaria's creditworthiness across various factors. Each factor is assessed in detail, including economic strength, institutional strength, fiscal strength, and susceptibility to event risk. The analysis considers Bulgaria's growth dynamics, economic size, national income, debt burden, fiscal strength, political and liquidity risks, and external vulnerability.
The paper then shifts its focus to the Bulgarian copper industry, examining its importance to the country's economy and the risks associated with operating within the industry. The chapter explores potential risks related to the copper production process, analyzing key factors influencing copper production. Finally, the paper utilizes statistical methodologies to forecast essential indicators such as copper and aluminum prices and minimum wages in Bulgaria, providing insights into the future development of the industry.
Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)
The paper focuses on sovereign rating, creditworthiness, economic resilience, government financial strength, event risk, Bulgaria, copper industry, risk assessment, forecasting, copper price, aluminum price, minimum wages, statistical methodologies.
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- Alexander Kahlert (Autor:in), 2019, Financial Planning and Rating. A Case Study of the country Bulgaria, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/504103
