This paper argues from a realist perspective that current developments imply that China’s rise leads to conflict, especially with the USA. The argument is based on four points: China’s expanding economic and military power, its hegemonic aims and the security dilemma.
Table of Contents
1. The Rise of China
Objectives and Topics
The primary objective of this work is to analyze the rise of China and evaluate the likelihood of a peaceful power transition in relation to the United States. The author examines the dynamics of the global power shift by addressing the research question: "Can China rise peacefully?"
- Analysis of China's expanding economic and military power.
- Examination of China's hegemonic ambitions and their impact on global order.
- Investigation of the "security dilemma" between Washington and Beijing.
- Evaluation of the realist perspective on power competition versus the institutionalist view.
- Comparison of the current US-China situation with historical power transitions.
Excerpt from the Book
The Rise of China
Momentarily, due to a shift in the constellation of power, East Asia becomes the area of global prevalence concurrence and potential conflicts between great powers (Janning 2014, 125). Especially the rise of China plays a significant role in this development (Ikenberry 2008, 26). While power transitions are generally “fraught with danger” (Ikenberry 2008, 26), the rivalry between China and the United States of America make China’s ascendancy particularly dangerous (Janning 2014, 127). This raises the following research question: Can China rise peacefully?
In academia, opinions range from realists such as Mearsheimer stating that if China’s economy would continue to grow so rapidly, “the United States and China are likely to engage in an intense security competition with considerable potential for war” (2006, 160), to institutionalists as Ikenberry emphasizing the institutionalisation of the international system and the benefits China enjoys by participating in it, reducing China’s incentives to challenge the current order (Ikenberry 2008, 24). Although I acknowledge that not all power changeovers inevitably provoke discord (Ikenberry 2008, 27), I agree with the realist perspective and argue that current developments imply that China’s rise leads to conflict, especially with the USA. The argument is based on four points: China’s expanding economic and military power, its hegemonic aims and the security dilemma.
Summary of Chapters
1. The Rise of China: This section outlines the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, arguing from a realist perspective that China's economic and military growth, combined with its hegemonic ambitions and the resulting security dilemma, makes a future conflict highly probable.
Keywords
China, United States, Power transition, Realism, Hegemony, Security dilemma, Military advancement, Economic growth, Geopolitics, Asia-Pacific, International order, Conflict, Peace, Alliance system, Strategic competition
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this publication?
The publication focuses on the geopolitical implications of China's rise and the resulting tension between Beijing and Washington, assessing whether this power shift will result in conflict or a peaceful transition.
What are the primary themes discussed?
The key themes include economic growth as a driver for military expansion, the role of international anarchy in power politics, the impact of hegemonic ambitions, and the systemic pressure leading to a security dilemma.
What is the central research question?
The central research question is: "Can China rise peacefully?"
Which scientific method is applied?
The work utilizes a theoretical analysis based on political science realism, examining academic debates between realists and institutionalists, and applying these frameworks to contemporary data on economic and military developments.
What content is addressed in the main body?
The main body covers China's rapid economic growth, its modernization of military capabilities, its strategic aims regarding regional and global hegemony, and how the interaction of these factors creates a dangerous security dilemma with the US.
Which keywords characterize the work?
The work is characterized by terms such as power transition, realism, hegemony, security dilemma, and US-China relations.
How does the author view the potential for a peaceful rise?
The author expresses skepticism toward the institutionalist view that economic interdependence will prevent conflict, ultimately concluding that the current structure of the international system makes conflict highly probable.
What role does the "security dilemma" play in the author's argument?
The security dilemma is presented as a major factor, where China's defensive modernizations and US alliance expansions create a feedback loop of mistrust and aggressive action-reaction behavior.
Does the text provide historical comparisons?
Yes, the author compares the contemporary US-China situation to the rivalry between Germany and other powers prior to World War I, highlighting the risks of seeking a "place in the sun."
What is the significance of the Taiwan issue mentioned?
The author identifies China's aim to retake Taiwan as a high-risk flashpoint that could escalate beyond regional instability into a larger conflict, potentially involving nuclear risks.
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- Carolina Gerwin (Autor:in), 2018, How the rise of China's economic and military power leads to conflict. The rivalry between China and the USA, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/510892
