International Mediation Quo Vadis? The UN in Yemen's Civil War

Achievements, Challenges and Lessons Learned from 2015-2018

Master's Thesis , 2019 , 134 Pages

Politics - Topic: Peace and Conflict, Security

This thesis provides a nuanced assessment of the effectiveness of the UN-led mediation process in Yemen’s civil war between April 2015 and February 2018 in order to detect lessons learned for one of the main challenges of our time: effective conflict management. Based on latest developments in armed conflicts, civil wars are the most destabilizing threats in the current international system as well as the most difficult types of conflicts to manage and terminate. Especially since 2011, revolutionary dynamics and state fragility in the MENA region led to highly complex internationalized civil wars that involve major-power tensions and features of proxy-warfare. Against this backdrop, the very limits of the “standard regime” employed by the international community to manage civil wars in the post-Cold War era, namely: mediation and peacekeeping, are being tested sharply. This thesis contributes to one possible way the regime could survive, namely though lessons learned. While mich is known about UN peacekeeping, less so about UN civil war mediation. Hence, the thesis focuses on third-party mediation as the most common form of conflict management with a special emphasis on the effectiveness of the UN as a leading actor in applying this standard treatment.

Through utilizing six key conditions for mediator effectiveness from Bergmann (2017) in expert interviews, the thesis finds that the low degree of UN mediator effectiveness in Yemen was mainly related to the (coherent) partisanship of the UNSC, whose Chapter VII resolution 2216 functioned as mediation mandate and rendered an impartial and balanced process impossible. This added to the missing leverage of the mediator on all sides and to the missing willingness of the parties to compromise as well as to the restraint of major P-5 and western governments to reign the regional actors in. Most apparent lessons learned include the need to reflect the complexities involved in the mandate and throughout the process. The mandate should allow for the inclusion of all actors directly or indirectly involved through negotiation formats on several levels. Incentives and disincentives need to be revised, highest priority and sufficient funds should be allocated to UN mediation and above all, an impartial and balanced process should be safeguarded against all odds as this tackles the trust in and the very credibility of the UN and the integrity of the rules-based system of international relations as a whole.

Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)

• ABSTRACT
• ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
• TABLE OF CONTENT
• LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
• LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
• I. INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
• 1. Problem Definition
• 2. Research Question
• 3. Relevance and Literature Review
• 4. Methods and Proceedings
• II. EMPIRICAL SETTING
• 1. Trends in Armed Conflict and Civil War Termination: The Middle East in Focus
• 2. The UN in International Mediation: SESGs at the frontline of war termination
• 3. UN Mediation in Yemen: From showcase to humanitarian nightmare
• 4.1. The Shadow of the Past: a long standing conflict re-ignited
• 4.2. Arab Spring and National Dialogue under SASG Benomar (2011-2014)
• 4.4. Military Intervention and Civil War under SESG Ahmed (2015-2018)
• 4.5. The world's worst humanitarian crisis under SESG Griffith (2018-ongoing)
• III. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
• 1. Meta-Theoretical Assumptions
• 2. Research Subject: Specification of key concepts
• 3. Conceptualizing UN Mediator Effectiveness
• 3.1. UN Mediator Effectiveness
• 3.1.1. UN-specific dimension: goal-attainment
• 3.1.2. Conflict-specific dimension: conflict settlement
• 3.2. Conditions for UN Mediator Effectiveness
• 3.2.1. Mediator-related conditions
• 3.2.2. Conflict parties'-related conditions
• 3.3. Alternative explanatory factors
• IV. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
• 1. Case Selection
• 2. Operationalization
• 3. Data collection methods
• 3.1. Desk study and literature review
• 3.2. Expert interviews
• 3.2.1. Sampling
• 3.2.2. Research ethics
• 3.2.3. Conduction of the interviews
• 3.2.4. Production of transcripts
• 3.2.5. Data analysis
• 3.2.6. Reflections and limitations of research
• V. FINDINGS: UN MEDIATOR EFFECTIVENESS IN YEMEN (2015-2018)
• 1. UN Mediator Effectiveness
• 1.1. Goal-Achievement
• 1.2. Conflict-Settlement
• 2. Conditions of UN Mediator Effectiveness
• 2.1. Mediator leverage
• 2.2. Mediator strategy
• 2.3. Mediator coherence
• 2.4. Mediator coordination
• 2.5. Conflict parties' willingness to compromise
• 2.6. Conflict parties' internal cohesiveness
• VI. CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK
• 1. Discussion of Research Findings
• 2. Lessons Learned and Ways Forward

Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)

This thesis aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of the United Nations (UN)-led mediation process in Yemen's civil war between 2015 and 2018, drawing upon a variety of academic approaches and incorporating real-world experiences to illuminate the complexities of international conflict management.

• The effectiveness of UN mediation in the context of civil war
• The specific challenges and constraints faced by the UN in mediating the Yemen conflict
• The role of international actors and regional powers in influencing the mediation process
• The impact of the Yemen conflict on the international community and global security
• Lessons learned from the UN's experience in mediating the Yemen conflict for future conflict management initiatives

Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)

• Introductory Remarks: This chapter provides a concise overview of the research problem, outlines the research question, and discusses the relevance and current state of scholarly debate regarding international mediation, particularly in the context of civil war.
• Empirical Setting: This chapter explores the broader context of the Yemen conflict, examining the trends in armed conflict and civil war termination in the Middle East, the UN's role in international mediation, and a historical overview of the conflict in Yemen.
• Theoretical Framework: This chapter establishes the theoretical underpinnings of the study, presenting the research subject, defining key concepts, and developing a framework for analyzing UN mediator effectiveness.
• Research Design and Methodology: This chapter details the research design and methodology employed in the study, including case selection, operationalization, data collection methods (desk study and expert interviews), and data analysis techniques.
• Findings: UN Mediator Effectiveness in Yemen (2015-2018): This chapter presents the findings of the research, examining UN mediator effectiveness in Yemen through the lens of goal-achievement and conflict-settlement. It also analyzes the impact of various conditions, such as mediator leverage, strategy, coherence, and coordination, as well as the conflict parties' willingness to compromise and internal cohesiveness.

Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)

This thesis focuses on key terms and concepts related to international conflict management, particularly in the context of civil war, and the UN's role as a mediator. These include: civil war, United Nations (UN), international mediation, conflict management, peacemaking, international organization (IO), third-party diplomatic intervention, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Yemen, Houthi-Conflict, Anṣār Allāh, Special Envoy of the Secretary-General (SESG), and effectiveness.

• Author: Sarah Ultes (Author)
• Publication Year: 2019
• Pages: 134
• Catalog Number: V539532
• ISBN (eBook): 9783346156266
• ISBN (Book): 9783346156273
• Language: English
• Tags: achievements, challenges, civil, international, learned, lessons, mediation, vadis, yemen