This thesis provides a nuanced assessment of the effectiveness of the UN-led mediation process in Yemen’s civil war between April 2015 and February 2018 in order to detect lessons learned for one of the main challenges of our time: effective conflict management. Based on latest developments in armed conflicts, civil wars are the most destabilizing threats in the current international system as well as the most difficult types of conflicts to manage and terminate. Especially since 2011, revolutionary dynamics and state fragility in the MENA region led to highly complex internationalized civil wars that involve major-power tensions and features of proxy-warfare. Against this backdrop, the very limits of the “standard regime” employed by the international community to manage civil wars in the post-Cold War era, namely: mediation and peacekeeping, are being tested sharply. This thesis contributes to one possible way the regime could survive, namely though lessons learned. While mich is known about UN peacekeeping, less so about UN civil war mediation. Hence, the thesis focuses on third-party mediation as the most common form of conflict management with a special emphasis on the effectiveness of the UN as a leading actor in applying this standard treatment.
Through utilizing six key conditions for mediator effectiveness from Bergmann (2017) in expert interviews, the thesis finds that the low degree of UN mediator effectiveness in Yemen was mainly related to the (coherent) partisanship of the UNSC, whose Chapter VII resolution 2216 functioned as mediation mandate and rendered an impartial and balanced process impossible. This added to the missing leverage of the mediator on all sides and to the missing willingness of the parties to compromise as well as to the restraint of major P-5 and western governments to reign the regional actors in. Most apparent lessons learned include the need to reflect the complexities involved in the mandate and throughout the process. The mandate should allow for the inclusion of all actors directly or indirectly involved through negotiation formats on several levels. Incentives and disincentives need to be revised, highest priority and sufficient funds should be allocated to UN mediation and above all, an impartial and balanced process should be safeguarded against all odds as this tackles the trust in and the very credibility of the UN and the integrity of the rules-based system of international relations as a whole.
Table of Content
I. INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
1. Problem Definition
2. Research Question
3. Relevance and Literature Review
4. Methods and Proceedings
II. EMPIRICAL SETTING
1. Trends in Armed Conflict and Civil War Termination: The Middle East in Focus
3. The UN in International Mediation: SESGs at the frontline of war termination
4. UN Mediation in Yemen: From showcase to humanitarian nightmare
4.1. The Shadow of the Past: a long standing conflict re-ignited
4.2. Arab Spring and National Dialogue under SASG Benomar (2011-2014)
4.4. Military Intervention and Civil War under SESG Ahmed (2015-2018)
4.5. The world’s worst humanitarian crisis under SESG Griffith (2018-ongoing)
III. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
1. Meta-Theoretical Assumptions
2. Research Subject: Specification of key concepts
3. Conceptualizing UN Mediator Effectiveness
3.1. UN Mediator Effectiveness
3.1.1. UN-specific dimension: goal-attainment
3.1.2. Conflict-specific dimension: conflict settlement
3.2. Conditions for UN Mediator Effectiveness
3.2.1. Mediator-related conditions
3.2.2. Conflict parties’-related conditions
3.3. Alternative explanatory factors
IV. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
1. Case Selection
2. Operationalization
3. Data collection methods
3.1. Desk study and literature review
3.2. Expert interviews
3.2.1. Sampling
3.2.2. Research ethics
3.2.3. Conduction of the interviews
3.2.4. Production of transcripts
3.2.5. Data analysis
3.2.6. Reflections and limitations of research
V. FINDINGS: UN MEDIATOR EFFECTIVENESS IN YEMEN (2015-2018)
1. UN Mediator Effectiveness
1.1. Goal-Achievement
1.2. Conflict-Settlement
2. Conditions of UN Mediator Effectiveness
2.1. Mediator leverage
2.2. Mediator strategy
2.3. Mediator coherence
2.4. Mediator coordination
2.5. Conflict parties’ willingness to compromise
2.6. Conflict parties’ internal cohesiveness
VI. CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK
1. Discussion of Research Findings
2. Lessons Learned and Ways Forward
Research Objectives and Core Themes
This work provides a nuanced assessment of the United Nations' effectiveness in mediating Yemen's civil war between 2015 and 2018. It seeks to understand why the UN-led mediation process under Special Envoy Ismaïl Ould Cheikh Ahmed was not more effective, identifying lessons for future interventions in complex, high-intensity conflicts involving great power interests.
- The effectiveness of international organizations as third-party mediators in intrastate conflicts.
- The impact of mediator leverage, strategy, coherence, and coordination on mediation outcomes.
- The influence of conflict parties' willingness to compromise and internal cohesiveness on the success of mediation.
- The operationalization of "mediator effectiveness" through goal-attainment and conflict-settlement criteria.
- The interplay between regional and global power politics and UN-led diplomatic efforts in Yemen.
Excerpt from the Book
1. Problem Definition
“Since one of the most promising approaches to the peaceful settlement of disputes is skillful third-party mediation, we, the United Nations, have a responsibility to “we the peoples” to professionalize our efforts to resolve conflicts constructively rather than destructively and to “save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.”
— Ban, Ki-moon 2009
“This is a challenging moment for those states, international organizations and private institutions that wish to play a role in bringing peace and stability to turbulent areas around the world.”
— Crocker et al. 2018: 93
They are brutally violent, long-lasting, highly intractable (Regan & Aydin 2006; Sambanis 2000) and wreak unfathomable levels of damage, destruction and death not seen since World War II (Heydemann 2018: 59). They usually ignore the basic principles of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and currently lead to the highest levels of human displacement on record (UNHCR 2018). As the most prevalent and most destabilizing type of conflict in the international system (Greig 2017; Walter 2013: 656; Lutmar & Bercovitch 2011: 3; Sisk 2010: 238), contemporary civil wars pose a serious threat to regional and international peace and security (Art. 2(7), Ch. VI and VII UN Charter) as several UN-Security Council resolutions (UNSCR) confirm (Cockayne et al. 2010; Sisk 2009: 6).
Summary of Chapters
I. INTRODUCTORY REMARKS: Defines the research problem regarding civil war intractability and outlines the specific case study of UN mediation in Yemen.
II. EMPIRICAL SETTING: Examines the evolution of armed conflicts in the Middle East and provides a detailed history of the Yemeni conflict and international mediation efforts.
III. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: Establishes the analytical concepts of mediator effectiveness, leverage, strategy, coherence, and party-related conditions based on existing mediation literature.
IV. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY: Details the qualitative case study approach, expert sampling, and content analysis methods used to evaluate the UN mediation process.
V. FINDINGS: UN MEDIATOR EFFECTIVENESS IN YEMEN (2015-2018): Provides an empirical assessment of the UN's performance in Yemen, analyzing key conditions like leverage, coherence, and conflict party dynamics.
VI. CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK: Summarizes the findings on the UN's limited effectiveness in Yemen and synthesizes key lessons learned for future peacekeeping and mediation missions.
Keywords
Civil War, United Nations (UN), International Mediation, Conflict Management, Peacemaking, International Organization (IO), Third-Party Diplomatic Intervention, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Yemen, Houthi-Conflict, Anṣār Allāh, Special Envoy of the Secretary-General (SESG), Effectiveness
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this research?
This thesis examines the effectiveness of the UN-led mediation process during the Yemeni civil war between 2015 and 2018, specifically evaluating why the mediation efforts faced significant challenges.
What are the central themes of the work?
The work focuses on international relations, conflict management, the role of mediators in high-intensity civil wars, and the specific dynamics of the Yemeni conflict under different UN Special Envoys.
What is the main research question?
The research asks why the UN-led mediation process in Yemen under Special Envoy Ismaïl Ould Cheikh Ahmed from 2015 to 2018 was not more effective in achieving its stated goals.
Which scientific methods are applied?
The study employs a qualitative case study design, combining a thorough desk study of official UN documents and secondary literature with semi-structured, anonymized expert interviews.
What is covered in the main body of the work?
The main body details the historical context of the Yemeni war, develops a theoretical framework based on mediation indicators, and provides an empirical evaluation of mediator leverage, strategy, and the behavior of the conflict parties.
Which keywords define this research?
Key terms include Civil War, International Mediation, UN Effectiveness, Yemen, Peacemaking, and Mediator Strategy.
How does the author define mediator leverage in the context of this study?
Mediator leverage is defined as the ability of the UN to provide economic benefits or apply diplomatic/military pressure ("carrots and sticks") to move conflict parties toward an agreement.
What role does the UN Security Council (UNSC) play in the mediation process discussed?
The research argues that the UNSC's (coherent) partisanship, particularly through Resolution 2216, often hindered the UN mediator's ability to maintain an impartial mediation mandate.
What were the primary difficulties faced by Special Envoy Ahmed according to the research?
He faced significant logistical constraints, lack of a standing mandate that could adapt to changing conflict realities, and a high degree of distrust from the warring parties who perceived the UN as biased.
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- Sarah Ultes (Autor:in), 2019, International Mediation Quo Vadis? The UN in Yemen's Civil War, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/539532
