In the view of ongoing political debates about the future and scope of the European Union in general and about EU enlargement specifically, this paper addresses the readiness of Romania in terms of political requirements specified in the Copenhagen Criteria. A theoretically oriented section highlights approaches that explain the influence of the EU on reforms in (potential) candidate states. It concludes that it is the prospect of membership that supports reforms. The following section attempts a quantitative comparison regarding the political criterion between Romania and the baselines of (a) the EU 25, (b) the EU 12 and (c) the eight Central and Eastern European States that accessed the EU in 2004. The analysis thereby relies on the most recent data set of the World Bank Governance Indicators. The results suggest that Romania is factually far away from all three baselines in terms of the political criterion. Accordingly, the paper concludes that a postponement of accession in the framework of the existing treaties would be highly reasonable – both from the Romanian and the European perspective and apart from biases stemming from short term political interests that inform most often the contemporary debate.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Research questions
2. Theoretical considerations: The prospect matters
3. The state of Romania’s democracy: attempting a quantitative comparison
3.1 Limitations of measuring the Copenhagen political criterion
3.2 World Bank Governance Indicators: Romania and the baselines
4. Conclusion: Postponing the accession
Research Objectives and Key Topics
This paper examines the readiness of Romania for European Union membership in relation to the political requirements defined by the Copenhagen Criteria. The primary research question addresses Romania's performance in terms of democratic accountability, governance effectiveness, and the rule of law compared to relevant EU baselines, ultimately questioning the reasonableness of the proposed accession date in January 2007.
- Analysis of the Copenhagen political criterion within the context of EU enlargement.
- Theoretical exploration of how the prospect of EU membership influences domestic political reforms.
- Quantitative comparison of Romania against the EU 12, EU 25, and CEEC 8 baselines using World Bank Governance Indicators.
- Investigation into the impact of conditionality and rent-seeking behavior of political elites.
- Evaluation of the political implications regarding a potential postponement of accession.
Excerpt from the Book
1. Introduction
Loudly debating the scope and the future of the European Union has once again become a common practice of politicians in recent time. Especially since the rejections of the ‘Treaty establishing a European Constitution’ in France and the Netherlands in early summer, this debate is increasingly fought out in front of the European and national publics. Recently smouldering disputes about the power of Brussels versus national sovereignty, about contributions and pay-offs, and about the meaning of the Union beyond economic terms broke out openly. The Brussels summit on the financial perspective that failed this June and the surrounding rhetoric of the political actors provided a colourful example. All these quarrels can be subsumed under the grande question accompanying the European Union since its very beginnings in the 1950s: How far should this Europe reach in political and in territorial terms?
Given this background, the public and thus the political interest focuses now also increasingly on the upcoming enlargement round. After the Union has welcomed ten new member states in May 2004, Bulgaria and Romania’s accession is scheduled for January 2007. However, this focus contains the danger that politicians within the ‘club’ of the existing member states exploit the enlargement debate to sharpen their profile and gain politically. In a speech criticising the European politics of the German government, the opposition leader Angela Merkel (2005) for example doubts the fixing of the accession date for Bulgaria and Romania implicitly stating that these countries are not ready yet. But what is true and what is biased through short term political interest? To answer this question one must ask whether and which conditions exist that characterise the readiness for accession of a candidate state.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Introduces the debate surrounding the future of the European Union and defines the research scope regarding Romania's accession readiness based on the Copenhagen criteria.
2. Theoretical considerations: The prospect matters: Explores theories on how international actors and the prospect of EU membership incentivize domestic democratization and reform processes in candidate states.
3. The state of Romania’s democracy: attempting a quantitative comparison: Provides a methodological discussion and a comparative quantitative analysis of Romania's performance against established EU member state baselines using governance indicators.
4. Conclusion: Postponing the accession: Synthesizes the quantitative results with theoretical insights to conclude that postponing Romania's accession is a reasonable strategy to foster genuine democratic reforms.
Keywords
European Union, Romania, Copenhagen Criteria, EU enlargement, democratization, political conditionality, governance indicators, rule of law, democratic accountability, accession, transition theory, European integration, reform, political elites, conditionality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary objective of this research?
The study aims to evaluate Romania's readiness for European Union membership by assessing its compliance with the political requirements of the Copenhagen Criteria in a comparative, quantitative manner.
Which criteria are used to measure political readiness?
The paper focuses on the political requirements of the Copenhagen Criteria, specifically democracy and the rule of law, measured through World Bank Governance Indicators such as Voice and Accountability, Government Effectiveness, and Control of Corruption.
What is the role of the "prospect of membership" in this study?
The study utilizes theoretical frameworks to argue that the prospect of EU membership acts as a primary catalyst for domestic reforms, a leverage that may diminish once a country becomes a full member.
How does the author approach the quantitative analysis?
The author employs World Bank Governance Indicators to compare Romania's current standing against three specific baselines: the EU 12, the EU 25, and the group of eight Central and Eastern European states (CEEC 8) that joined in 2004.
What does the author conclude regarding Romania's accession?
Based on the quantitative data showing significant lags in governance quality, the author concludes that postponing Romania's accession is a highly reasonable approach to ensure democratic consolidation.
What are the main theoretical foundations of the paper?
The analysis draws on transition theory (Laurence Whitehead), liberal theory applied to enlargement (Milada Vachudova), and rationalist bargaining models (Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier).
Why are the CEEC 8 countries used as a baseline?
They serve as a valuable, recent benchmark for comparison because they share historical similarities with Romania, such as experiences with oppressive political systems and state-centered economies.
How does the paper address the "moving target problem"?
The author acknowledges the vagueness of the Copenhagen political criteria and explains that, by not attempting a rigid definition, the study relies on internationally recognized governance datasets to maintain objectivity.
- Quote paper
- Christian Rauh (Author), 2005, Fitting already in? Romania and the political criterion of Copenhagen, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/57147
