Until the formal opening of accession negotiations on 3 October 2005, the long history of EU-Turkey relations seemed to resemble a never-ending story – to the potential benefit of both sides. While Brussels was able to influence Turkish domestic and foreign policy with instruments of conditionality, reform-oriented currents in Ankara gratefully used this external pressure to modernize the country. But at some point, any enlargement process has to set deadlines, enforce conditions, and draw consequences. Therefore, the start of accession talks represented a positive development in so far as it gave a new stimulus to a process that had started slowing down.
However, in November 2006, after Turkey had refused to open its ports and airspace to the Republic of Cyprus, EU-Turkey relations once again deteriorated significantly, leading to Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn’s much-quoted statement of a “train crash” scenario. Apart from the Cyprus issue, other developments such as the slowing pace of domestic reforms, the signs of rising of both nationalism and political Islam, and the declining public support for EU membership in Turkey itself (now less than 40%) as well as abroad reconfirm that relations between the two are going through a tumultuous phase – which is unlikely to change for the better soon, given that presidential and parliamentary elections are taking place in Turkey in 2007.
This paper’s goal is to depict and analyze EU-Turkey relations as they have unfolded during the last few years. In order to place recent developments in an accurate historic perspective, I will start by shortly summarizing the relationship from the very beginning until 2005 when official entry talks were finally launched. The next section will be dedicated to an evaluation of what has happened since then – what have been the main events that have put Turkey’s quest for EU membership, whose outcome looked relatively promising in 2005, once again in jeopardy? Then, I will analyze some factors that are perceived as the main obstacles to Turkish accession to the EU. A conclusion will top off the paper.
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
2. A BRIEF LOOK BACK: EU-TURKEY RELATIONS UNTIL 2005
3. DEVELOPMENTS SINCE THE OPENING OF ACCESSION TALKS
4. SELECTED OBSTACLES IN THE ACCESSION PROCESS
5. CONCLUSION
Objectives and Topics
This paper aims to analyze the trajectory of EU-Turkey relations, particularly focusing on the challenges and developments that have emerged since the formal opening of accession negotiations in 2005. The primary research inquiry addresses how Turkey's membership quest has evolved amidst internal political shifts, economic pressures, and international diplomatic obstacles.
- Historical context of EU-Turkey relations from 1959 to 2005
- Economic challenges, including macroeconomic stability and human capital development
- The role of political Islam and the ideological stance of the AKP
- The impact of the Cyprus issue on the accession negotiation process
Excerpt from the Book
Economic challenges.
Turkey’s young and growing population of over 70 million exceeds that combined of the ten countries that joined the EU on 1 May 2004. At the same time, its per capita income is lower than that of any of the EU-25, only comparable to Romania. However, it has been argued that with the right institutions and policies, Turkey has the potential to become a tiger economy. Indeed, after a period of tremendous macroeconomic mismanagement in the 1990s, culminating in a financial crisis in 2000/01, the government has successfully worked towards macroeconomic stabilization – now the budget is under control, the central bank has been granted a considerable degree of independence, inflation is falling, and a decent growth rate of almost 8% per year since the slump in 2000/01 has been achieved. However, growth after an economic recovery should not be confused with long-term sustainable growth. The latter one can only be guaranteed if Turkey first invests more and second improves the performance of key markets (formal labor markets and financial markets), economic institutions, and governance in order to gain higher returns on investment.
Summary of Chapters
1. INTRODUCTION: Provides an overview of the tumultuous phase in EU-Turkey relations and outlines the paper's goal to analyze the progression of these relations since 2005.
2. A BRIEF LOOK BACK: EU-TURKEY RELATIONS UNTIL 2005: Summarizes the historical milestones of the relationship, starting from the post-WWII era and the 1959 application to the EEC, through to the 1999 Helsinki Summit and the 2005 opening of accession talks.
3. DEVELOPMENTS SINCE THE OPENING OF ACCESSION TALKS: Evaluates the progress made during the screening process and examines the subsequent friction points, particularly the Cyprus issue and the suspension of negotiation chapters.
4. SELECTED OBSTACLES IN THE ACCESSION PROCESS: Discusses the significant economic challenges and the influence of political Islam on the Turkish domestic and foreign policy landscape.
5. CONCLUSION: Reflects on the future of the accession process, emphasizing the need for sustained political will and improved communication between the EU and Turkey.
Keywords
EU-Turkey relations, Accession negotiations, Economic challenges, Political Islam, AKP, Cyprus issue, Human capital, European integration, Kemalism, Reform process, Foreign policy, Customs union, Democratization, Macroeconomic stability
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the central focus of this paper?
The paper examines the historical and contemporary dynamics of Turkey's application for EU membership, focusing on developments following the official start of negotiations in 2005.
What are the primary themes discussed in the text?
Key themes include the historical progression of EU-Turkey ties, economic reform challenges, the rise of political Islam under the AKP government, and persistent geopolitical disputes like the Cyprus issue.
What is the core research objective?
The objective is to provide a balanced analysis of how recent political and economic events have both supported and hindered Turkey's quest for European integration.
Which scientific methodology is applied?
The study utilizes a historical and policy-oriented analysis, drawing upon existing academic literature, European Commission reports, and macroeconomic data to evaluate current diplomatic and political developments.
What does the main body cover?
The main body investigates the transition from 2005 to 2007, detailing specific hurdles such as the refusal to open ports to Cyprus, economic stability concerns, and the ideological shifts within Turkish political discourse.
Which keywords best describe this research?
Essential keywords include EU-Turkey relations, Accession, Political Islam, Economic stability, Cyprus issue, and Democratization.
How does the author interpret the impact of the AKP on Turkey's EU path?
The author questions whether the AKP's pro-European stance is motivated by a genuine commitment to democratic reform or by potential strategic benefits, noting the party's ambivalent discourse regarding secularism.
Why is the Cyprus issue considered a significant barrier to membership?
It is presented as a major diplomatic stalemate because Turkey's failure to extend its customs union to the Republic of Cyprus has led to the suspension of accession negotiation chapters by EU member states.
- Quote paper
- MMag. M.A. Gisela Spreitzhofer (Author), 2007, Turkey's quest for EU membership: Recent developments, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/80231
