This strategy brief contends that the COVID-19 pandemic uncovered the cracks in the contemporary worldwide socio-specialized request and offers the possibilities of a few diverse elective prospects.
The arrangement investigates the pandemic through the viewpoint of the staggered point of view on socio-specialized changes. The pandemic is surrounded as a meta-change occasion at the scene level of uncommon scale, pace, and inescapability with the end goal that it pervades all socio-specialized systems at the same time. The possibilities for what is to come are then characterized on a framework that looks at the quality of common society and that of financial structures.
The outcome is four unmistakable situations that are connected to contemporary talks on financial fates: nothing new; oversaw change; disorganized progress; and oversaw degrowth. The situations are introduced as a beginning stage for strategy conversation and the commitment of cultural on-screen characters to characterize social and monetary opportunities for the future, and the suggestions that the various fates would have for environmental weights. It is inferred that the COVID-19 pandemic can go about as a reactant occasion in which the authenticity and adequacy of existing monetary and political structures will be tested and reshaped, and consequently is a chance to reclassify the biological weights our exercises make.
Table of Contents
1. Presentation
2. Elective meta-changes
3. Four situations for a post-COVID-19 world
3.1 Nothing new
3.2 Overseen change
3.3 Turbulent change
3.4 Overseen DE growth
4. Conversation
5. Ends
Objectives and Topics
This strategy brief explores the socio-technical consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic by modeling four distinct potential future scenarios, evaluating how existing monetary and political structures may be reshaped to address global sustainability and environmental challenges.
- Analysis of socio-technical systemic changes triggered by the pandemic.
- Development of a scenario framework based on state governance and economic strength.
- Evaluation of "green growth," "degrowth," and "turbulent transition" pathways.
- Assessment of the resilience of global trade and national sovereignty post-COVID.
Excerpt from the book
Turbulent change
At the degree of individual social orders, history is packed with instances of disastrous breakdown from assorted causes (Tainter 1988). These cases have all been spatially limited as opposed to worldwide in scope, and may have brought about the huge scope dispersal of the influenced populaces as transients or displaced people, as oftentimes occurs in the midst of war. Nations or social orders that have persevered through catastrophic occasions of this greatness may battle to recoup.
Preceding the appearance of COVID-19, the possibilities for a worldwide scale cataclysmic occasion seemed, by all accounts, to be restricted to atomic war, which could bring about abrupt and broad decimation. Conversely, the biological emergency welcomed on by infringing on planetary cutoff points has been viewed as some way or another less existential, less quick, and less exhaustive. As Taleb (2007) has recently contended, huge irregular occasions are famously hard to conjecture, and halfway therefore their effect is especially intense (Turchin 2008, 2016; Blyth 2009). Turbulent change may result from scene pressures show across social orders and their economies (Motesharrei, Rivas, and Kalnay 2014; Motesharrei et al. 2017).
Summary of Chapters
Presentation: This chapter introduces the catastrophic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global social and economic frameworks, noting that it has exacerbated pre-existing strains in neoliberal globalization.
Elective meta-changes: This section frames the pandemic as a meta-transition event at the niche level, utilizing the multi-level perspective to examine how systemic shocks penetrate various socio-technical systems.
Four situations for a post-COVID-19 world: This chapter introduces a scenario matrix based on the strength of common society and the economy, leading to four distinct future pathways.
Nothing new: This scenario describes a return to the pre-pandemic status quo, where economic growth continues alongside existing global trade relations despite systemic risks.
Overseen change: This scenario explores the potential for a "green new deal," where policy and innovation are used to decouple economic growth from biological and environmental weights.
Turbulent change: This scenario models a systemic breakdown characterized by the collapse of global governance and sudden, uncontrolled rebalancing of economic activity.
Overseen DE growth: This scenario envisions a deliberate contraction of the material economy and a rebalancing of wealth, prioritizing long-term ecological sustainability over traditional monetary growth.
Conversation: This chapter synthesizes the scenarios, discussing the role of political will, the fragility of international institutions, and the potential for long-term sustainability transitions.
Ends: The concluding chapter reflects on the lessons learned, emphasizing that although the "same old thing" is a strong temptation, the crisis offers a genuine opportunity to reclassify social and environmental values.
Keywords
Scenario examination, elective prospects, progress pathways, green development, degrowth, oversaw change, COVID-19, socio-technical systems, globalization, sustainability, economic policy, climate change, resilience, meta-transition, environmental weights.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this research?
The work examines how the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a catalyst for potential future socio-technical trajectories and how these scenarios affect global sustainability.
What are the central themes discussed in the paper?
The paper covers the intersection of global trade, government regulation, economic models, and environmental sustainability in the wake of a systemic global shock.
What is the main objective or research question?
The primary goal is to provide a framework to evaluate future supportability by exploring four potential world scenarios following the pandemic.
Which scientific methods are utilized?
The research employs the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) on sustainability transitions and scenario analysis to categorize potential future states.
What is covered in the main section of the paper?
The main section details the scenario matrix, distinguishing between "Nothing new," "Overseen change," "Turbulent change," and "Overseen degrowth" based on economic and social governance factors.
Which keywords define this publication?
The core keywords include scenario examination, elective prospects, green development, degrowth, and overseen change.
How does the pandemic relate to "Turbulent change"?
The author suggests that the pandemic could act as a "trigger occasion" that causes repercussions so severe that existing regulatory and governance instruments become ineffective, leading to system discontinuity.
What is the core difference between "Overseen change" and "Overseen DE growth"?
While "Overseen change" focuses on greening the economy through technology and decoupling, "Overseen DE growth" advocates for a deliberate, radical contraction of material economic scale.
Does the author believe a return to the status quo is likely?
The author identifies the "same old thing" (Nothing new) as a likely outcome due to the urgency of returning to economic activity, but notes it is an undesirable path due to the environmental crisis.
- Citar trabajo
- Veena Soni (Autor), 2020, Four Situations for a Post-COVID-19 World, Múnich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/916067
